Oden and his QO.

[BrianFromWA]

Does the change in the CBA affect max QO's now? When I was pushing for Oden to get a max QO that would keep him here, it was for 6yrs/110+M. But with the new limits a max QO would seem to be 5yr/83M.

Probably still too high with the new tax structure to even gamble on, insurance or not.

But if I'm reading the new CBA correctly the most a team can offer him right now is 4/61.9M (starting at 25% of the 58M cap, 4 yrs, 4.5% raises). That changes the calculus somewhat.

While I'm sure the answer to this is based heavily on whether Oden is a "bust" or a "high upside guy about to come back" guy to you, would you match an offer from, say, Indy for 4/61.9M? If not, what's the floor that you'd keep Oden at?

 

[mgb]

Brian,

From BE:

Greg Oden

As a restricted free agent with full Bird Rights, Greg has surely followed reporting on the labor negotiations closely as they directly influence the type of contract that he can expect to sign either with the Trail Blazers or with another team. Perhaps most relevant are these details regarding contract length and contract size:


Maximum contract length of 5 years for Bird players and 4 years for other free agents.


Maximum annual increases of 7.5% for Bird and Early Bird players, and 4.5% for other players.


Rules governing maximum individual salaries for new contracts are the same as under the 2005 CBA

So although his starting maximum salary amount hasn't been decreased by the new agreement, the maximum length of contract that he could potentially sign with the Trail Blazers has been reduced to 5 years and the maximum length of an offer sheet that he could sign with another team has been reduced to 4 years. Additionally, the maximum yearly raise he can expect in a multi-year contract offer has been reduced from 10.5% to 7.5% with the Trail Blazers and from 8% to 4.5% with any other team.

Also of interest to both Greg and the Trail Blazers is this detail:


Period for a player’s prior team to match an Offer Sheet that a Restricted Free Agent receives from a new team shortened from 7 to 3 days.

So if Greg receives an offer sheet from another team, Portland would only have 3 days to decide whether or not they wanted to match that offer. In light of the short, frenzied free agency period about to strike the NBA, this perhaps makes it more likely that another team would make try to make an offer to Greg, as the period of time that they would be 'in limbo' waiting for a decision has been more than halved.

----

Has a lot more info on how the new CBA effects the Blazers there.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I think the math's the same, then. We can offer him 5/83.3 (5 years, starting at 25% of 58M cap--14.5M--and adding 7.5% raises), while everyone else can offer him 4/61.9 (4yrs, 25% of 58M, 4.5% raises).

 

[Blazinaway]

I think the math's the same, then. We can offer him 5/83.3 (5 years, starting at 25% of 58M cap--14.5M--and adding 7.5% raises), while everyone else can offer him 4/61.9 (4yrs, 25% of 58M, 4.5% raises).

why would the Blazers even consider offering him the MAX or anywhere close to it? that's simply crazy given his injury history and IMO would not happen - no way no how, if someone team is that dumb to offer him 12 mil a yr or so a yr then adios Greg, it was sorta nice knowin ya

 

[handiman]

If I'm a conference rival, I would seriously consider offering Oden the max 4/61.9, knowing full well that Portland is so committed to riding this one out, they have no choice but to match an offer in that range. But by doing so, Portland seriously handcuffs itself for future salary cap flexibility, and doubly so if Oden doesn't bounce back from the string of injuries. Of course, there's the risk of Portland's absentee GM calling your bluff and you're suddenly "stuck" with Oden, but I highly doubt that would happen.

 

[Blazinaway]

If I'm a conference rival, I would seriously consider offering Oden the max 4/61.9, knowing full well that Portland is so committed to riding this one out, they have no choice but to match an offer in that range. But by doing so, Portland seriously handcuffs itself for future salary cap flexibility, and doubly so if Oden doesn't bounce back from the string of injuries. Of course, there's the risk of Portland's absentee GM calling your bluff and you're suddenly "stuck" with Oden, but I highly doubt that would happen.

LMAO off. IMO Blazer mgmt IMO would wish you well and see that team get hamstrung for four years!

 

[handiman]

LMAO off. IMO Blazer mgmt IMO would wish you well and see that team get hamstrung for four years!

I don't think so. The only chance Portland has of saving face with the Oden vs. Durant debate is getting some value out of Oden like with Bowie/Buck. Even if that means foolishly sticking with Oden, they simply can't afford to let him flourish elsewhere for nothing in return.

 

[Kaydow]

LMAO off. IMO Blazer mgmt IMO would wish you well and see that team get hamstrung for four years!

Maybe. But couldn't another team just Amnesty Oden if he continues to be injured all of the time? If I'm a conference rival that is not already using the Amnesty on someone else, it might be worth a gamble to force Portland's hand.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

amnesty only works on current contracts

i like something around 8 million per, 5/40ish

 

[Rhal]

amnesty only works on current contracts

i like something around 8 million per, 5/40ish

Maybe theres a way to give him that contract but only have 28M of it guaranteed, the others just bonuses.

 

[Elton]

If I'm a conference rival, I would seriously consider offering Oden the max 4/61.9, knowing full well that Portland is so committed to riding this one out, they have no choice but to match an offer in that range. But by doing so, Portland seriously handcuffs itself for future salary cap flexibility, and doubly so if Oden doesn't bounce back from the string of injuries. Of course, there's the risk of Portland's absentee GM calling your bluff and you're suddenly "stuck" with Oden, but I highly doubt that would happen.

With Oden, I could see Utah pulling a "Millsap" on the Blazers for a little payback. The fanbase would actually love the idea of getting him even if it's a huge risk.

 

[Blazinaway]

With Oden, I could see Utah pulling a "Millsap" on the Blazers for a little payback. The fanbase would actually love the idea of getting him even if it's a huge risk.

however, I really doubt they would take that risk, supposedly they are planning to be very frugal this year

 

[Elton]

I live in Utah (wife is from here) and I can tell you Jazz fans are dying for some kind of "star" acquisition. I know Oden's proven nothing, but I could see the fans embracing the idea as the 'owners being committed to winning' because of the 'potential'.

I think they'd be ok with it either way, believe it or not.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

utah has freaky big man depth right now

 

[BIG Q]

Utah has 8 players under contract for $57 mil. They have to sign 4 more guys and stay under the cap. They can't offer Oden enough to hurt Portlands will to match.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

utahs gonna amnesty okur

 

[Elton]

utah has freaky big man depth right now

But not a single difference maker. They could use an impact defensive center.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

i hear ya, but dude

mehmet (likely amnestied, but expiring anyways)
favors
kanter
al jeff
milsap

sure they could use a greg oden type, who couldnt? but they already have a severe logjam going down

 

[Elton]

I think they'd gladly roll the dice on an impact big. I know I would if I had that big man situation.

Al Jeff, ugh.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

yes and they can all play 16 mpg

 

[Pinwheel1]

I think they'd gladly roll the dice on an impact big. I know I would if I had that big man situation.

Al Jeff, ugh.

No way in hell. Another team maybe. But with Favors and Jefferson on the team, they are not rolling any dice on Oden. Remember even if they amnesty Jefferson or Okur, they still will be paying the contracts. The Jazz do not throw money around like that. This is team who traded Maynor with in their division just to save 1 million dollars! Jazz fans may want to, but the Millers will not.