Oden, have you given up on him? What would make you believe?

[Idog1976]

What would make you give up hope?

I'm including a poll because I'm a bit shocked at all the negativity towards him. When he was healthy and in good shape (read first 1/3 of 2009/10 season) he contributed at a very high level.

People think Roy is great and with good reason. However, its like people aren't concerned about his health or feel that his past performance trumps any health issues he may have now or recently.

This seems like a double standard to me. You need to base your faith in someone on whether or not they perform when given the chance and they are healthy. Nobody bags on Roy's playoff performance because people understand he was really injured. How is this any different then Oden's 2008/09 performance where he was hobbled by injuries and never really got in shape?

I understand the extreme HORROR everyone feels about Oden's injuries, that really goes without saying, what blows me away is people who think he won't contribute if healthy.

So where do you stand?

 

[andalusian]

I loved his pick - and loved his contributions last year before his injury, I think at the time I had some data that showed that Oden was the best defensive player in the league, bar none.

It comes down to health with Oden - and it is up to him to get to a reasonable weight that will help him stay on the court and contribute for long periods of time.

 

[Idog1976]

I loved his pick - and loved his contributions last year before his injury, I think at the time I had some data that showed that Oden was the best defensive player in the league, bar none.

It comes down to health with Oden - and it is up to him to get to a reasonable weight that will help him stay on the court and contribute for long periods of time.

I absolutely agree with this. Weight might be the key for Oden. From the looks of it he has a lot of work to do. I think his upper body is a bit too big. Also, I think he needs to have his diet really monitored. He eats garbage all the time and I think that effects his fatigue and overall health.

 

[Mediocre Man]

IF he's healthy, you can't vote for anything other than 20+ PER because that's what he gave last season when he was playing

 

[LameR]

Loud minority is what you've seen.

 

[blazerboy30]

It is unlikely that I will move to the "trade Oden" or "cut-bait on Oden" camp. The reason is that the reward-to-risk ratio on Oden is so high. There will never (IMO) be a reason to trade Oden for a consistently average player, which is probably about what Oden's trade value currently is. We won't get a piece to put us over the top for an often-injured player.

The Blazers would not be serious championship contenders if you replace Oden with an average center, so what do we gain? A few more regular season wins, and another early playoff exit. Marginal improvement.
However, if Oden does stay healthy, we are serious championship contenders for the length of his healthiness.

IMO, it is like this:

I have a Powerball ticket with every number matching, waiting for the last number to show up. Somebody offers me $1 for the ticket. I decline because that extra $1 doesn't get me anything useful, and the reward for getting the last number matching, even if it isn't great odds, is worth millions.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

In the ten remaining games of his career, before his entire body spontaneously explodes, Greg Oden will average 20 points, 20 rebounds and 5 blocks in the 15 foul-plagued mpg he manages.

 

[Idog1976]

Loud minority is what you've seen.

I assume you are in the Oden sucks camp. So vote your heart.

 

[Wheels]

It is unlikely that I will move to the "trade Oden" or "cut-bait on Oden" camp. The reason is that the reward-to-risk ratio on Oden is so high. There will never (IMO) be a reason to trade Oden for a consistently average player, which is probably about what Oden's trade value currently is. We won't get a piece to put us over the top for an often-injured player.

The Blazers would not be serious championship contenders if you replace Oden with an average center, so what do we gain? A few more regular season wins, and another early playoff exit. Marginal improvement.
However, if Oden does stay healthy, we are serious championship contenders for the length of his healthiness.

IMO, it is like this:

I have a Powerball ticket with every number matching, waiting for the last number to show up. Somebody offers me $1 for the ticket. I decline because that extra $1 doesn't get me anything useful, and the reward for getting the last number matching, even if it isn't great odds, is worth millions.

pretty much exactly how I feel. Well said!

 

[Idog1976]

IF he's healthy, you can't vote for anything other than 20+ PER because that's what he gave last season when he was playing

He actually had far superior stats to Brandon Roy WHILE he played. 23.1 PER and amazing defensive rating of 100.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/odengr01.html

Look at the 2009/10 stats. They were freaking awesome. I believe he was the best defensive player IN THE LEAGUE for those 21 games. Also his True Shooting percentage was incredible especially as he was the 3rd option at best.

 

[BBert]

Greg Oden will rock the house. Bank on it.

 

[mook]

His baseline is Arvydas Sabonis. Obviously not in skills, but in impact from the center position. 20+ PER every night, but maybe only 20-25 mpg. Out for 20-30 games a season. Hopefully ready for the playoffs.

That, to me, is a worst case scenario. (Well, the absolute worst is he gets a career-ending injury. But that's true of any player.)

In a best-case scenario, his injury problems are history and he becomes Dwight Howard 2.0.

Most likely he winds up somewhere in the middle.

 

[blazerboy30]

He actually had far superior stats to Brandon Roy WHILE he played. 23.1 PER and amazing defensive rating of 100.

This is why I voted for "all-star level production".

Oden was approaching being dominant during the minutes he played. That is without having played many games or developing his offensive tools. If he stays healthy, every part of his game will only get better and he will be a dominant player.

 

[LameR]

I assume you are in the Oden sucks camp. So vote your heart.

Quite the opposite. I've tempered my expectations, but still think he'll be solid. I picked 20+ PER.

EDIT: I think he can easily be an all-star though, health-pending of course.

 

[blazerboy30]

In a best-case scenario, his injury problems are history and he becomes Dwight Howard 2.0.

Most likely he winds up somewhere in the middle.

If we're talking best-case scenario, with no more injury issues, I think he will be a better overall player than Howard. Yeah, maybe I'm a homer.

 

[mgb]

As noted, it all depends on his health. As the poll is worded I marked all star because while he's playing that's the level I believe he'll be when he's healthy.

It's not fair though to compare him to Roy and his injuries. Roy has had some minor injuries while Oden has had two out of three seasons end with a injury and part of the third he had injuries. Talking apples and bananas.

 

[Idog1976]

If we're talking best-case scenario, with no more injury issues, I think he will be a better overall player than Howard. Yeah, maybe I'm a homer.

I agree with this. The injuries have been maddening but let us not forget ALL the experts said that 2007 was the 2nd most important draft of the previous 12 years or so due to Oden. His physical gifts are seriously without peer in the league. His athleticism was a shade lower then Howard's and his length and BBIQ much, MUCH higher. If Oden is healthy we challenge the lakers its that simple. Well Roy has to be healthy too.

 

[Idog1976]

As noted, it all depends on his health. As the poll is worded I marked all star because while he's playing that's the level I believe I'll be when he's healthy.

It's not fair though to compare him to Roy and his injuries. Roy has had some minor injuries while Oden has had two out of three seasons end with a injury and part of the third he had injuries. Talking apples and bananas.

I agree it's difficult to compare due to those factors. I guess I've been annoyed how some of the same folks that dog Oden give Roy a pass. Roy's health has been extremely checkered as well and believe it or not concerns me MORE then Oden's. Talus bone, Knees, Hamstring. All serious problems that don't look to get better unlike bones. If people are going to say Roy is great even though he wasn't healthy during the playoffs they ought to say Oden too is great. Both have to be healthy or else it doesn't matter. Need to be consistent with standards. I think severe and understandable disappointment with Oden color's people's perceptions unfairly.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Talking apples and bananas.

It's certainly unlikely that Roy's apples can compare with what we know of Oden's banana.

 

[Minstrel]

If we're talking best-case scenario, with no more injury issues, I think he will be a better overall player than Howard. Yeah, maybe I'm a homer.

I agree. His best case scenario is the same defense and rebounding of Howard (because he's already shown that kind of ability) and a superior offensive game to Howard, who's offensive game still consists of wide open dunks, put-backs and overpowering the occasional way undersized defender. That's where Oden's offensive game is now with, hopefully, years of development still ahead of him.

I've said it before, but I think Oden's ceiling is a Tim Duncan caliber player (though he won't resemble Duncan in style). A fantastic defender and rebounder who was also a major go-to guy on offense (but not utterly dominant on the offensive end).

As for this poll, since health is assumed, I voted for All-Star level. He was already there per-minute last year, he just didn't play enough. If he can cut down on the fouls, he should definitely be All-Star caliber. A PER over 20 with great defense would make him one of the two best centers in the league (Yao would be his biggest competition, Bynum could also challenge).

 

[Idog1976]

It's certainly unlikely that Roy's apples can compare with what we know of Oden's banana.

LMAO repped!

 

[B-Roy]

He's gotta stay on the floor. Injuries and foul trouble are the only thing standing in his way really. Even if he doesn't develop a good offensive game, he can still achieve Dwight Howard status.

 

[mrkorb]

For me this is the last year that I remain optimistic about Oden. If he can't perform this year, my black #52 jersey goes in a box.

 

[oldmangrouch]

What would make you give up hope?

I'm including a poll because I'm a bit shocked at all the negativity towards him. When he was healthy and in good shape (read first 1/3 of 2009/10 season) he contributed at a very high level.

People think Roy is great and with good reason. However, its like people aren't concerned about his health or feel that his past performance trumps any health issues he may have now or recently.

This seems like a double standard to me. You need to base your faith in someone on whether or not they perform when given the chance and they are healthy. Nobody bags on Roy's playoff performance because people understand he was really injured. How is this any different then Oden's 2008/09 performance where he was hobbled by injuries and never really got in shape?

I understand the extreme HORROR everyone feels about Oden's injuries, that really goes without saying, what blows me away is people who think he won't contribute if healthy.

So where do you stand?

>>>IF<<<Oden is healthy, he will contribute at a high level. I don't think anybody actually denies that - unless you count people like me who think he will never be a scoring machine.

Seriously, you are showing your youth here. Bowie was a very productive player - when he was healthy. Same with Steve Johnson. In fact, you could honestly say that in some respects they were both better players than Oden! The obvious catch, is that they were injured so much, it undermined team success. I'm betting that is ALL that anybody cares about.

As for what would make me give up hope - that ship has already sailed. Last season was make-or-break for me. He broke.

 

[LittleAlex]

With the assumption of health and Oden playing as well as he did prior to the injury last season, he will have a very good chance of making the all-star team.
He will certainly put Portland amongst the top 5 defensive teams in the league.
He will lead the league in offensive boards and be in the top 5 overall.
Once the team realizes that freezing him out of the offense is insane, he will average around 15 points a game, 11+ rebounds and 2+ blocks.

Skies the limit for Oden.

 

[Minstrel]

Seriously, you are showing your youth here. Bowie was a very productive player - when he was healthy. Same with Steve Johnson. In fact, you could honestly say that in some respects they were both better players than Oden!

But they were actually much worse players.

Bowie's career best season was 16.4 PER with 107 DRtg. Oden's two seasons so far produced 18.1 PER and 23.1 PER with a DRtg of 104 in his first season which fell to 100 in his second.

Steve Johnson's career best PER (which came before he became a Blazer) was 18.1 with a DRtg of 103. The vast majority of his career was significantly worse than that.

So while I take and agree with your point that ability only matters if the player actually plays, we're not talking about comparable talents when it comes to Oden and Bowie/Johnson. In addition, Bowie's injuries were of the career-altering type. Doctors have said Oden's aren't. If you want to be cynical, you can say "What do doctors know?" and "I'll believe it when I see it," which is fine. My point is simply that the information that we have right now doesn't support your comparisons. Yes, if Oden is never healthy, he'll be a wash-out. 20-30 great games a season doesn't a great career make. But, right now, there's no reason to believe his injuries will continue to be so much of a problem. There is reason to believe that his great performance when healthy will continue.

 

[Natebishop3]

I'm trying to remain positive. The potential is still there, and we've all seen what Oden can do when he is healthy, but at this point I'm not sure if he can stay healthy. It's not a question of talent, it's a question of durability. Until GO can play the majority of a season without being seriously injured, it's going to be very hard to get excited.

 

[oldmangrouch]

But they were actually much worse players.

Bowie's career best season was 16.4 PER with 107 DRtg. Oden's two seasons so far produced 18.1 PER and 23.1 PER with a DRtg of 104 in his first season which fell to 100 in his second.

Steve Johnson's career best PER (which came before he became a Blazer) was 18.1 with a DRtg of 103. The vast majority of his career was significantly worse than that.

Not to derail the thread, but a serious question - were you old enough to actually watch those guys play? You'll note that I said *in some respects* they were better than Oden.

That defensive rating for Bowie must not be pace adjusted, because anyone who actually saw him play would tell you he was as good or better than Oden on defense. He was also an *outstanding* passer for a big man. In terms of passing/playmaking/ball movement, he was on par with Sabonis - and certainly better than Oden.

As for Steve Johnson, he was described as having the second best (to McHale) low post moves in the league. Constantly trying to play through injuries distorted his PER. If he had been the type of guy who only played when he was close to 100%, his PER would have been in the 20 range.

There were also areas of their games where they were not as good (potentially) as Oden. Physically, Steve Johnson was an injury riddled Al Jefferson. A healthy Oden would no doubt be a better rebounder and defender. Bowie was a decent, not great rebounder, and wasn't all that special as a scorer.

Of course, none of this is really relevant to the subject. My apologies to the TS.

 

[Minstrel]

Not to derail the thread, but a serious question - were you old enough to actually watch those guys play?

I watched the NBA through Bowie's entire career. I'm not old enough to have seen Johnson's early career and I don't remember the guy even though I watched the NBA during most of his career (I was a kid in the '80s).

On the other hand, while observation is worthwhile for certain things, it's also extremely unreliable. Human memory has all sorts of flaws, flaws that make precise comparisons virtually impossible just from human perception. Even for experts, "seeing" the slight difference in efficiency that can separate a superstar from a merely good player can be extremely difficult. For an amateur (as we all are), it's pretty close to impossible without use of stats. And when doing it from 20 year old memories...I wouldn't put a lot of stock in it (whether it's my memories at question or yours).

You'll note that I said *in some respects* they were better than Oden.

I caught that. My comment that they were actually worse players was meant to be bottom line...after factoring in all aspects.

That defensive rating for Bowie must not be pace adjusted, because anyone who actually saw him play would tell you he was as good or better than Oden on defense. He was also an *outstanding* passer for a big man. In terms of passing/playmaking/ball movement, he was on par with Sabonis - and certainly better than Oden.

I certainly don't recollect Bowie being a defensive superstar. Very solid defender, sure. And DRtg is per 100 possessions, so pace is not relevant. It's not per game. There's nothing surprising about Oden, who's defense has been lauded as amazing for as long as he's been a prospect and who has visually had great defensive effect in the NBA, being a superior defender to Bowie.

Bowie was a great passer, much better than Oden, and that actually is incorporated in the numbers, as his Assist Rate dwarfs Oden's. He still didn't have the overall PERs of Oden.

In any case, I'm not disputing that each had facets where they were better than Oden (at least, at Oden's current level), but I don't think that makes Bowie/Johnson useful comparisons to Oden. Oden was universally considered a fabulous talent and his play when healthy has borne that out. Neither Bowie nor Johnson were considered the same level of talent. In addition, while I don't know much about Johnson's injuries, Bowie's injuries were of a different type that Oden's are believed to be...injuries that changed Bowie's ability and made him more prone to injury. At this point in time, that's not believed to be the case with Oden's.

So, I think it's reasonably on-topic, actually. The thread is about what we should expect from Oden and you are using historical comparisons to argue "not much." I simply disagree that they are useful comparisons.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

I think his ceiling is significantly different today.

What made him such a great prospect, other than his size, was his athletic ability.

He had a no-step vertical of 32-inches coming into his rookie year, I'm willing to bet that when he comes back from this latest injury it's probably around the early-to-mid 20's. He's not the same prospect, not even close.