Oden to leave....

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Ghost Pepper

Ghost Pepper

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Yahoo and the Oregonian are reporting that Oden is going to take the qualifying offer and than will bolt the following year.


Got to say if he has a great year this year and bolts he will have truly screwed Blazer Fans!
 
Why would anybody be surprised? Not that I'm taking this as fact yet, but I've been saying this would happen since the Blazers stupidly didn't even offer Oden an extension on his rookie contract.

Dumb dumb dumb.
 
Ghost Pepper said:
Yahoo and the Oregonian are reporting that Oden is going to take the qualifying offer and than will bolt the following year.


Got to say if he has a great year this year and bolts he will have truly screwed Blazer Fans!
Click to expand...

I don't see anything in the article saying he was going to bolt. It just said he would be an unrestricted free agent. So he's going to test the market. He's going to go to the team that makes the offer that's best for him and that could still be the Blazers.
 
Canzano has been throwing out that doom and gloom scenario for months now but he forgets the most important reason as to why that won't happen.

For that to happen it is gambling that Oden will remain injury free. Do you really think Oden will walk away from a guaranteed $30? $40 mill contract for a chance to earn the exact same amount of money elsewhere? Do you think his agents are going to advise him of that?

"Hey Oden, your knees are garbage, your luck is horrible, lets not sign an extension with the Blazers and hope you don't get injured for the next year."
 
PapaG said:
Why would anybody be surprised? Not that I'm taking this as fact yet, but I've been saying this would happen since the Blazers stupidly didn't even offer Oden an extension on his rookie contract.

Dumb dumb dumb.
Click to expand...

Exactly, I got the impression the Blazers want him to test the market to see how other teams would value him. Given his history/health I'd say most teams would feel he's worth taking a risk on but he's not going to get a max. deal.

Oden hasn't been mistreated by the Blazers at all so I don't know why he'd have already decided to leave. He's had a bad experience while working for the franchise but it wasn't anything they did to him.
 
He can take less $$$ elsewhere right? Even if we offer more, he doesn't have to accept it?
 
No other team will offer much. If he goes, he'll make half of what Paul Allen offers. If he does that, good riddance.

The chances are at least 50% that he'll continue to have a ruined career. If we lose him it will greatly simplify our lives as Blazer fans.
 
Ghost Pepper said:
Yahoo and the Oregonian are reporting that Oden is going to take the qualifying offer and than will bolt the following year.


Got to say if he has a great year this year and bolts he will have truly screwed Blazer Fans!
Click to expand...

LOL this is NO NEW news! There is NO quote from Dden and we all knew this anyway, it just Canzano trying to get some attention and rehashing the same old BS
 
jlprk said:
The chances are at least 50% that he'll continue to have a ruined career. If we lose him it will greatly simplify our lives as Blazer fans.
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Can't argue with that one. It would probably simplify Oden's life as well, because here in Portland a large chunk of fans are going to always view him as a franchise player.
 
We have no idea when play will resume or what the CBA will look like. No sense in getting worked up about this.
 
PapaG said:
Can't argue with that one. It would probably simplify Oden's life as well, because here in Portland a large chunk of fans are going to always view him as a franchise player.
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yep, and if we use a likely amnesty clause to get rid of Roy's contract lets perhaps make a clean sweep of the injury guys and let Oden go if he won't sign a reasonable contract. No one know how good he'll be but bringin Freeland over next summer is likely a good idea as well.
 
I'll be crushed. 10 years of franchise rebuilding wasted.

After Oden and Roy, what...build around LMA? we'll be lotto fodder for a while and hopefully luck out again. :confused:
 
It kind of "feels" to me like the Blazers may match an offer another team makes Greg after the lockout. On the other hand, it also "feels" like they could extend him an offer on their own prior to the start of the season that would be large enough to get him to sign. If I were in Greg's shoes and had his injury record, I think I'd "feel" like getting some longterm security ASAP instead of just taking the 1 year qualifying offer and hoping that I don't get injured again and never see another dime. It also "feels" to me like Canzano is continuing his traditional pattern of writing much while knowing little.
 
If give him a nice extension he will stay (not sure if we can even give him an extension) for the guaranteed money, if we don't he'll test the market and we may lose him or we may be able to match and keep him. I'm not gonna worry about what happens tell it happens, to much ?? around this team to add another one to the mix.
 
e_blazer said:
It kind of "feels" to me like the Blazers may match an offer another team makes Greg after the lockout. On the other hand, it also "feels" like they could extend him an offer on their own prior to the start of the season that would be large enough to get him to sign. If I were in Greg's shoes and had his injury record, I think I'd "feel" like getting some longterm security ASAP instead of just taking the 1 year qualifying offer and hoping that I don't get injured again and never see another dime. It also "feels" to me like Canzano is continuing his traditional pattern of writing much while knowing little.
Click to expand...

Blazers have one option, well, two, and Oden has two options.

Oden

-can sign Q.O. and become a UFA after what is left of the 2011-12 season.
-can reject Q.O. and become RFA prior to 2011-12 season.

Blazers

-can hope Oden rejects Q.O. and becomes RFA

My opinion is that the Blazers lost their leverage when they refused to offer Oden even a token extension on his rookie deal. Maybe that was a good move, maybe that was a bad move. We'll find out over the next year, at a maximum.
 
PapaG said:
Blazers have one option, well, two, and Oden has two options.

Oden

-can sign Q.O. and become a UFA after what is left of the 2011-12 season.
-can reject Q.O. and become RFA prior to 2011-12 season.

Blazers

-can hope Oden rejects Q.O. and becomes RFA

My opinion is that the Blazers lost their leverage when they refused to offer Oden even a token extension on his rookie deal. Maybe that was a good move, maybe that was a bad move. We'll find out over the next year, at a maximum.
Click to expand...

I think that you have a basic misunderstanding of the Q.O. process that contributes to your pessimism about the Blazers' position. The Q.O. doesn't have to be signed or rejected by Oden until next spring. He can, and IMO will, sit on it and then listen to all of the offers he's going to get from other teams and/or the Blazers prior to the start of next season...whenever that may be. Once he looks those over and sees if there's something that makes good sense to him, he'll either accept an offer from another team...which the Blazers will have the opportunity to match, accept an offer from the Blazers, or decide at that point that he'd rather go unrestricted the following summer and accept the Q.O. The last course of action has a huge risk to Greg, given his injury history, in that if he has another injury this next year he may never see another big offer again.

I have no idea what the Blazers and other teams will make of Greg after they look over his medical reports and see where he is from a playing standpoint once a new CBA is signed. Assuming that he is making good progress and his medical tests are positive, I'd expect him to get offers that will be too good to pass up.
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
I'll be crushed. 10 years of franchise rebuilding wasted.

After Oden and Roy, what...build around LMA? we'll be lotto fodder for a while and hopefully luck out again. :confused:
Click to expand...

Wait, we had no Oden or Roy last year, so played around LMA - were we lotto fodder? Did I miss something, or are you just being ridiculous?
 
e_blazer said:
I think that you have a basic misunderstanding of the Q.O. process that contributes to your pessimism about the Blazers' position. The Q.O. doesn't have to be signed or rejected by Oden until next spring.
Click to expand...


If Oden rejects the Q.O., he is instantly a free agent. Oden is not under contract right now, is he? He needs to have a contract to play next season, whenever it is. He either plays next season under the Q.O., or he rejects it and becomes a RFA. Where am I wrong on this? I'm not saying I'm right, btw, but how does Oden get a contract without making a decision on the Q.O. prior to the season?
 
PapaG said:
If Oden rejects the Q.O., he is instantly a free agent. Oden is not under contract right now, is he? He needs to have a contract to play next season, whenever it is. He either plays next season under the Q.O., or he rejects it and becomes a RFA. Where am I wrong on this? I'm not saying I'm right, btw, but how does Oden get a contract without making a decision on the Q.O. prior to the season?
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You make it sound as if the decision regarding the Q.O. has to made now. Oden is a free agent (restricted) right now. He just has an offer (the Q.O.) from the Blazers that he can accept or reject at any time up until March of next year. In the mean time, he's free to entertain other offers from the Blazers and other teams before he has to decide about the Q.O. If he gets an offer he likes, the Q.O becomes a moot point.
 
BlazerBeav said:
Wait, we had no Oden or Roy last year, so played around LMA - were we lotto fodder? Did I miss something, or are you just being ridiculous?
Click to expand...

Try sustaining winning like that with no oden, no roy. We had some veterans on the team like Dre and Camby. But if we're retooling, they're going to have a youth movement and we will be more lotto fodder than contenders.
 
SlyPokerDog said:
For that to happen it is gambling that Oden will remain injury free. Do you really think Oden will walk away from a guaranteed $30? $40 mill contract for a chance to earn the exact same amount of money elsewhere? Do you think his agents are going to advise him of that?

"Hey Oden, your knees are garbage, your luck is horrible, lets not sign an extension with the Blazers and hope you don't get injured for the next year."
Click to expand...

If Oden has an injury plagued season and looks like crap after the lockout he will still be a sought after free agent. Darko, Kwame, Eddy Curry, all received massively overpaid contracts after years of disappointing play. Oden was dominant for a brief stretch of games, far more productive than any of those players. Yes he only played in a quarter of his teams total games, but that potential for greatness is more enticing than all but a couple of available free agents in an offseason.

By taking the qualifying offer Oden first receives ~$9million. Even if he is injured and plays like crap he will get more than an MLE contract, around 3 years for $21 million. Oden will get a minimum of $30 million total over the next 4 years no matter how crappy or injured he is! Now if Oden signs a one year qualifying offer and is dominant at the end of the season he could receive a near max 3 year contract as an unrestricted free agent in the $52 million neighborhood brining his four year total to $61 million.

Oden is reportedly in line for offers as a RFA in the 4 years $40 million range. So Oden’s 4 year earnings would be:

$30 million minimum if he plays like crap and is hurt.
$40 million if he agrees to 4 year deal with Blazers.
$61 million if he successfully recovers from injuries next season.

Oden is not risking all his money by taking a one year offer. No matter how next season plays out he will be a rich man and highly sought after by an NBA team. He is risking $10 million to earn $21 million, a good deal for him if he believes there is around a 50% chance he is a major disappointment again next season.
 
I kind of hope Oden does leave ... not because I hate him or am desperate to see him go, but holy shit this place is going to be soooooo much fun if he does.
 
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