OK, just for fun, speculate

[Minstrel]

Maybe Durant will peak sooner and that will still leave him at a near MVP level. I just think the jump from 'terrible to decent' in Jerryd's case is a lot easier to make than 'really good, to top 5' in Duran't case -- Durant has made more difficult leaps in production whereas Jerryd got his production up to 'acceptable' ... and he's still a pretty ho-hum shooter for a shooting guard and not really much of a passer or 'quarterback' in a point guard role.

Heh, of course Durant has made the more difficult leaps. He's far and away the better talent. I just don't understand why Bayless doesn't also get the benefit of production at a young age. Being an "acceptable" NBA player at age 21 is difficult and impressive. Not as difficult and impressive as being a top-ten player in the NBA (as I consider Durant) by age 21, but Bayless isn't that Hall of Fame caliber talent.

If Bayless is an "acceptable" NBA player at 21, doesn't that suggest that he has a pretty good chance of being a very fine NBA player by age 26? And somewhere in between as he gets older.

Will Bayless become a great floor leader? Probably not. But Roy is the floor leader anyway. Roy is not a gifted enough passer to be the only play-maker, but between Bayless, Roy and Batum, there is the chance to have fairly good passing overall in that perimeter.

Obviously, everything hinges on Oden staying healthy. But to be perfectly honest, I think there's a better chance that Oden will put in reasonably healthy seasons than that OKC will acquire a high level post presence with ~$10 million in cap space (which is not enough for a max contract). Beyond those "hopefuls" for each team, Portland has lots of room to improve in Oden (apart from his health issues, he can also simply get better at basketball, which is pretty nice considering he's already over 20 PER with great defense), Batum and Bayless.