1. Portland Trail Blazers (Projected Record: 51-31)
Offensive Rating: 112.2 (8th)
Defensive Rating: 107.8 (11th)
The consensus of the other stat-based projections (most notably John Hollinger's for ESPN.com) is that the expectations are too high for a Blazers team that figures to be just barely above .500. Suffice it to say SCHOENE breaks that consensus. While the win number itself isn't enormous, the Blazers are projected to finish third in the Western Conference and be one of six teams in the league to crack the 50-win mark. Yikes.
Why the discrepancy between similar methods? For one, Hollinger notes that several Blazers took major steps forward last season. While in several cases I think this was in part a matter of returning to form after a down season and in others natural development of young players, guys like Steve Blake and Joel Przybilla are likely to take a step backwards this season in a way that SCHOENE can't pick up on because it uses only one year of statistics (Hollinger uses three, weighted).
I think the more important factor, however, is how we're treating rookies. The projections by Hollinger and others are much more subjective, while my projection for Greg Oden is based on his stats at Ohio State and the projection for Rudy Fernandez is based on his ULEB Cup performance in Europe last season. This is no small factor because Oden and Fernandez are both critical players for the Blazers. I have them worth a combined 13 wins, which is simply enormous given Portland adds them without sustaining any comparable losses (reserves Jarrett Jack and James Jones being the only notable departures).
By adding Oden, the Blazers have become a much bigger team. His presence means Channing Frye and/or LaMarcus Aldridge no longer need to play center, while Travis Outlaw will play small forward instead of as a small four. All of that figures to make a huge impact on the defensive end, where rebounding is no longer a liability and Portland projects as one of the league's top shot-blocking teams. On offense, the Blazers figure to benefit both from the new additions and the development of their young guys.
Portland isn't on the level of the West's top teams, the Lakers and Houston, and it might be optimistic to put the Blazers ahead of Utah and New Orleans. Lowering expectations is probably a good thing for the team and its exuberant fans. Still, Portland is abuzz with good reason. This is a Blazers team that figures to contend sooner rather than later.
Notes:
* Oden was the only player for whom I made a slight subjective adjustment, lowering his two-point percentage and increasing his turnover rate. This accounts to some extent for Oden's return from microfracture knee surgery. For other players like fellow microfracture patient Sean May, I made the projection conservative by limiting their minutes. We know Oden is going to see heavy action, so I thought this was the best way to build in that conservative element and makes sense subjectively based on Oden's up-and-down preseason. (Ed. Note: Oden will miss at least a month after spraining his foot on Opening Night.--JSS)
* Fernandez's translated numbers are very interesting. His shooting percentages are poor (43.5 percent on twos, 32.4 percent on threes), but Fernandez projects to do everything else pretty well. I was especially surprised by his defensive numbers. While he may struggle one-on-one, Fernandez looks like an impact team defender, with a projected 2.7 percent steal rate and 1.4 percent block rate. Just three players topped 2.5 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively, last season--Chuck Hayes, Shawn Marion and Gerald Wallace. Fernandez's active hands in the passing lanes are especially useful for a team that had the league's lowest steal rate last season.
* The projections like Nate McMillan's decision to use Sergio Rodriguez instead of rookie Jerryd Bayless behind Steve Blake, at least initially. Rodriguez is penciled in for a breakout season, while Bayless might need some time to adjust to the NBA. The numbers on French rookie Nicolas Batum as a starter are also dubious, though his translation is very respectable for a guy who won't turn 20 until December.
* Even without knowing how much he is going to handle the ball this season, the system likes Brandon Roy to increase his assists this season. Roy figures to be in for a big campaign. With Manu Ginobili hurt and a conservative projection for Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant and Andre Iguodala are the only shooting guards projected to be more valuable than Roy.
