Oregon no match for Auburn?

[Wheels]

For Oregon fans this is everything you hope for. Oregon gets their shot to show the country they are the top program in the country, and in the process would establish some respect if they can beat a worthy SEC opponent in Auburn.

Both teams are undefeated and led by second year head coaches and new starters at quarterback. Auburn is led by quarterback Cam Newton who will undoubtedly walk away with the Heisman trophy this year. They have certainly seen the ball bounce their way on several occasions.

Oregon is more balanced than Auburn with respect to their play-makers. Quarterback Darron Thomas, running back LaMichael James and wide receiver Jeff Maehl are three of the many threats in Oregon's fast-pace offense.

Already it sounds like Oregon should not even bother showing up the game in Glendale and just hand over the trophy to Auburn. I continue to hear and read that Auburn is going to roll over Oregon and that they have little chance.

Let's take a look at a few numbers and stats to try and back up this argument.

Auburn is 13-0 in the SEC. Impressive feat without a doubt. However before we hand them the trophy, let's look at their schedule and the results on their season and offer some analysis.

Conference Opponents:

@ Mississippi State 8-4 (4-4) Notable Wins: Florida Losses: LSU, Alabama, Arkansas: 17-14
South Carolina 9-4 (5-3) Wins: Alabama, Florida Losses: Kentucky, Arkansas, Auburn (2): 35-27
@ Kentucky 6-6 (2-6) Wins: South Carolina Losses: Florida, Miss, Georgia, Miss. St, Tennessee : 37-34
Arkansas 10-2 (6-2) Wins: South Carolina, Texas A&M, LSU Losses: Alabama: 65-43
LSU 10-2 (6-2) Wins: Florida, Alabama Losses: Arkansas: 24-17
@ Ole Miss 4-8 (1-7) Wins: Kentucky Losses: Jacksonville State, Vanderbilt, Tennessee: 51-31
Georgia 6-6 (3-5) Wins: Tennessee, Georgia Tech Losses: Miss. St, Colorado, Florida : 49-31
@ Alabama 9-3 (5-3) Wins: Arkansas, Florida, Losses: LSU, South Carolina : 28-27
South Carolina (SEC CHAMP): 56-17

Auburn had some quality wins in conference. My opinion is that South Carolina were two quality wins despite the fact South Carolina couldn't even mildly account for Newton on defense. Arkansas, LSU and Alabama were three quality wins. Arkansas was the only win in double digits out of those three, in which Ryan Mallett left in the first half after taking a vicious blow to the head.

Out of Conference: ALL HOME GAMES
Ark State: 56-26
Clemson: 27-24 (OT)
Louisiana-Monroe: 52-3
Chattanooga: 62-24

After looking and compiling the data it would appear that the SEC indeed "beat up" on each other as is customary in great conferences. Auburn dodged some serious bullets to keep that perfect record in tact. A quick look shows some big points scored by Auburn. But in the land of "stiff" SEC defenses how was that possible?

Auburn beat conference opponents by an average of 13.444 points-per-game in the 9 victories. They had five games they won by a touchdown or less in conference games. According to ESPN stats, they are No. 69 in the nation in passing, No. 6 in rushing, No. 6 in points scored and No. 54 in points against.

Nobody scored less than 14 points against Auburn all season in conference play.

Oregon is 12-0 in the Pac-10 this year and have clinched their second straight conference title.

Conference Opponents:

@ ASU 6-6 (4-5) Notable wins: Arizona Losses: Oregon State, Cal, USC, Stanford: 42-31
Stanford 11-1 (8-1) Wins: USC, Arizona Losses: Oregon: 52-31
@Washington State 2-10 (1-8) Wins: Oregon State Losses: Southern Methodist: 43-23
UCLA 4-8 (2-7) Wins: Texas, Houston, Oregon State Losses: Kansas State, Cal, USC: 60-13
USC 8-5 (5-4) Wins: Virginia, Cal, Arizona Losses: Washington, Notre Dame, Oregon State: 53-32
Washington 6-6 (5-4) Wins: USC, Oregon State, Cal Losses: BYU, Nebraska: 53-16
@Cal 5-7 (3-6) Wins: Arizona State Losses: Nevada, Washington: 15-13
Arizona 7-5 (4-5) Wins: Iowa, Cal Losses: Oregon State, Arizona State: 48-29
@Oregon State 5-7 (4-5) Wins: Louisville, Arizona, USC Losses: TCU, Boise St, Washington State, UCLA: 37-20

Oregon had quality wins against Stanford, USC, Cal and Arizona in my opinion. Cal is tough to classify as a quality win, but Oregon has historically played terrible ball at Cal in year's past and the score indicates this year it was not their best effort. That was the bullet of the group that Oregon dodged on it's way to a perfect season.

Out of Conference opponents:

New Mexico: 72-0
@Tennessee: 48-13
Portland State: 69-0

Breaking down the data from Oregon's conference schedule suggests more dominance in their conference. They won nine games by an average margin of 21.66 points-per-game. These numbers do not include the three major out of conference numbers which is about a 60 point-per-game margin of victory. Oregon had one game in which they won by a touchdown or less in those nine games.

According to ESPN Stats, Oregon is No. 48 in passing in the nation, No. 4 in rushing, No. 1 in points scored and No. 14 in points against. Considering Oregon scores most of their touchdowns in less than two minutes, that's a lot of time for the defense to keep the opposing offense out of the endzone. Oregon was held to under 40 points twice on the season, and the highest point total they gave up was 32, to USC.

So while everyone is shining up that trophy and getting ready to send it down to Auburn Jan. 10, Oregon will prepare in their "underdog" role all December long. A role Chip Kelly will ignore and continue to preach his "win the day" mantra on his way to Glendale.

http://oregon.247sports.com/Article/Oregon-no-match-for-Auburn-7621

 

[BGrantFan]

Oregon is 13th in the country in yards per play on defense. That is better than any defense Auburn has played this season. Auburn is somewhere in the 40s in that stat. In a fast-paced game, yards per play mean more than total yards.

I saw an interesting stat that gave me a smile. The top 4 defenses in yards per play that Auburn faced all held the Tigers under 30 points. With Oregon being the best they will have faced in that statistic, I can see the game not being quite as high-scoring as some seem to think it will be. I keep thinking back to the 2002 Fiesta Bowl, where CU was supposed to have an unstoppable offense, and Aliotti basically shut them down.

 

[Wheels]

The top 4 defenses in yards per play that Auburn faced all held the Tigers under 30 points. With Oregon being the best they will have faced in that statistic

Very interesting stat! thanks for that! repped .

 

[Natebishop3]

I expected this, and that's why I'm glad it's Auburn we're facing. If we beat Auburn, it will truly open some eyes about Oregon and the PAC10. If we had beaten Boise State, it would not have meant as much in the eyes of all the east coast pundits.

 

[Nate Dogg]

Out of Conference: ALL HOME GAMES
Ark State: 56-26 (Sun Belt Conference)
Clemson: 27-24 (OT) (ACC)
Louisiana-Monroe: 52-3 (Sun Belt Conference)
Chattanooga: 62-24 (Southern Conference)

Whats the RPI rankings of these teams that Auburn had to face?
None of these were away games.

In 2009 Auburn faced the following
Home vs Louisiana Tech (WAC) and won 37-13
Home vs Furman (Sun Belt) and won 63-31
Home vs West Virgina (Big East) and won 41-30
Home vs Ball Sate (MAC)) and won 54-30

What is up with Auburn not playing away on the road for non Conference opponents?

 

[BlazersBlood]

Only the media is overlooking UO. Right now, Auburn coaches are breaking down UO film & shitting their pants.

 

[Wheels]

Whats the RPI rankings of these teams that Auburn had to face?
None of these were away games.

In 2009 Auburn faced the following
Home vs Louisiana Tech (WAC) and won 37-13
Home vs Furman (Sun Belt) and won 63-31
Home vs West Virgina (Big East) and won 41-30
Home vs Ball Sate (MAC)) and won 54-30

What is up with Auburn not playing away on the road for non Conference opponents?

thats basically all the SEC. Florida hasnt traveled more than 50 miles from Gainesville for and OOC game since 1992. Dont have a link for that sorry, I heard it on 95.5 once while coming home from Portland.

 

[STOMP]

Nobody scored less than 14 points against Auburn all season in conference play....

muah ha ha haaaa

hard not to like the OP's logic

STOMP

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

The main reason we hold teams to few yards per play is due to defensive speed. We close and pursue extremely well.