OT: Fireworks tomorrow (other teams)?

[BrianFromWA]

To me, three of the more interesting positions in the draft are SAC at #8, CHI, and potentially BOS.

First, if you haven't seen SAC's GM Pete D'Alessandro's "crowdsourcing" of the draft (as shown
by Grantland) http://grantland.com/features/sacramento-kings-2014-nba-draft-crowdsourcing/ , it's something I've said for years could be kind of cool--sticking 10 or so fans from the site here into the draft process to keep it from a groupthink aspect, at least to get some ideas into the mix from people who don't have jobs on the line.

But as for SAC's pick, there's the "what I think they'll do" vs. the "what I might do". They are already deep into rumors of getting Josh Smith:

Sources say that Smith being swapped in exchange for the combination of Sacramento's Jason Thompson and Derrick Williams is one trade construction that the teams have discussed. Although one source insisted Tuesday that no deal is imminent, another source told ESPN.com that the teams have continued to exchange proposals, with Williams potentially being replaced by another Kings player such as Jason Terry or Carl Landry.
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/1...-sacramento-kings-discussing-josh-smith-trade

...and could go a few different ways with the pick. There are rumors that they don't like running Isaiah Thomas out there as the starting PG and could draft whoever of Payton (no relation)/Smart/Ennis that they like the best (cue MM's "Syracuse PG" theory)...in the above Grantland piece, Pete specifically asks if there are PGs the crowd likes and talks about "drafting for need". Guh.

There's another rumor that they could trade the #8 for an established PG--namely Rajon Rondo. I think Ainge would jump all over it if SAC offers it to him, although he'd have to take back some contracts (say, Outlaw and Terry or something). I think SAC moving forward with Rondo/McLemore/Gay/Smoove/Cousins (with Thomas and Landry or Williams--whoever's not traded for Smith--coming off the bench) would be one of the more entertaining teams to watch next year. Couple that with the MLE (SAC's not shy about tossing inordinate amounts of money at backup-caliber players) that you can potentially throw at someone like Sefalosha (to move McLemore to the 6th-Man gunner role) and you have a hellacious D. However, I think Coach Mike Malone is enamored with improving the shooting of the team, and the Smith and Rondo rumors might be just that.

If I were SAC I might look at the long game right now--trade into the middle of the first round (Grantland has a good piece by Simmons today that talks about the crapshoot in drafting lotto v. non-lotto, and doesn't even take into account much the perceived quality of this draft) and see if you can find someone who can give you some "future first" currency. PHX has three picks this year and (probably) three next year. ORL (who has the 12th pick as their second in the lotto) might give up one of their 3 2017 1sts to move up to 8, which would still allow you to pick up a shooter like Stauskas, McDermott or Harris and get some future assets.

BOS & CHI will be another post. Do you think we'll see a lot more movement than normal in a draft, or that with depth all over you'll see folks standing pat with what they have?

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

The Kings are ran by morons.

Josh Smith and Rudy Gay are the exact type of players that you don't build around.

 

[PDXFonz]

The Kings are ran by morons.

Josh Smith and Rudy Gay are the exact type of players that you don't build around.

I wouldn't put cousins in my top 20 to rebuild around either...

 

[BrianFromWA]

D'Alessandro's not an idiot--he did some good work in DEN and GSW (or at least, watched as Ujiri did).

Smith's a pretty good player to have around if you're pressing hard on D and running afterwards. He's not if you're asking him to shoot from more than 10 feet out. And I disagree about building around Cousins...but I understand I'm probably in the minority there.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

Gay is gone after this year, and people saying you can't win with josh smith...its not like you are winning with Jason thompson either

 

[Strenuus]

woah.... brian from wa sighting!!!! niiiice.

 

[BrianFromWA]

CHI's interesting as well. #16 ($1,468,900 cap hold) and #19 ($1,266,000), but they are trying hard to get into the Melo sweepstakes by having more cap room to offer him as high a contract as possible than the other potential suitors. Which means that they can do a couple of interesting things:

First, they can just draft two players they like and absorb the 2.7M hit on their cap. Which is 2.7M (~13M over 4 years) that they now can't offer to Melo on July 1.

Or, they could do the following with overseas players (not named Saric):

An unsigned first round pick is removed from team salary if the team and player both agree in writing not to sign any contract through the following June 30. The scale amount is returned to the team salary the following July 1. If the team renounces its draft rights, the player's scale amount is removed from the team salary permanently, and the team relinquishes its draft rights to the player
(see question number 53). If a first round pick signs with a non-NBA team, his scale amount is excluded from the team salary on the
date he signs his non-NBA contract or the first day of the regular season, whichever is later. The scale amount goes back onto the team salary on the following July 1 or when his non-NBA contract ends, whichever is earlier. In other words, these cap holds are removed for players playing outside the NBA, but only during the regular season.

Why not Saric? The way I read it, he would be a first-round pick signed with a non-NBA team and his scale amount would be excluded on the first day of the regular season, which is later than when he signed his contract.

If they sign two overseas players they like, and get them to sign a document before July 10 that states that they aren't playing in the US this season (but DON'T sign with another non-NBA team yet) then their scale hold comes off the books. But I don't see two overseas non-Saric players worth drafting at 16 and 19.

Thirdly, they could trade the two firsts for a bunch of seconds and/or future picks. PHI has a metric butt-ton of 2nds this year (5, by my count) and could move up to one (or both) positions by doing a straight pick swap. Or, as shown above, there are a few teams with multiple future picks that might like to move up into the middle of the first round.

Lastly, they might use them as sweeteners for some teams to shed additional salary. We could, for instance, trade them Meyers Leonard (or CJ) for Mike Dunleavy, #16 and #19 and shave 3.9M off their line while picking up a player with some semblance of motor and/or upside. If they really wanted to get crazy, they could trade Lopez and McCollum for Noah and the picks and get about 7M in savings.

Additionally, Mirotic (as it stands today) is a 1M cap hit for them unless he signs the "I won't play here" paper, which isn't likely. Mirotic/16/19 is a pretty darn good package to play around with.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Brian, I like the breakdown and waiting for the Boston breakdown. But also would like to know what you think Clev is going to do with the #1 pick.

 

[BrianFromWA]

BOS is also interesting, with 6 and 17 and a not-happy Rondo on the trade market (or so it seems).

If they're able to parlay Rondo into the 8th pick somehow, it leaves the BOS cupboard somewhat bare, aside from some young bigs. They players they'd have under contract would be:

Wallace
Green
Bass
Faverani
Olynyk
Sullinger

(again, which makes it kind of weird that the rumor is that they're taking back some combination of Jason Thompson, Carl Landry and Derrick Williams in the rumored Rondo swap. Maybe they'll find a way to get McLemore in the deal somehow?)

and the 6/8/17 picks, in addition to 3 in 2015 and 2 in 2016, 2017 and 2018. They want Love pretty badly, and I think there's an acceptable amount of picks in there that you can wrap a younger guy with a vet (say, Sullinger and Bass to replace Love's scoring) with some package of the picks to get Love. Ainge then has some draft capital left over to either retool on the fly (as he did with the Big 3) or to start a rebuild around some guards that can work with the all-Snowman big rotation of Love/Olynyk/Faverani.

Then again, most of the draftniks are convinced that Ainge is drafting Embiid if he's there at 6. So maybe trading for Love isn't going to work unless they're playing 5 6'10"+ guys on the floor at once.

If I had to guess, I'd say he probably unloads Rondo for #8, sniffs out if he can get Love for a couple of the bigs and lots of future picks, and tries to end up with Love, Embiid, Smart and a shooter (Rodney Hood?) at 17. That'd be a pretty big win for them.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I don't think anyone knows what CLE is going to do, but it'll probably end up being the "safe" thing and taking Wiggins. Not that there's anything wrong with that. But what would I do?

I think I'd call up Utah. They want Parker so bad they can taste it, and he's not getting to 3, much less 5. Favors, #5 and some future considerations should be good. Personally, I think that LBJ is a low chance for them (especially this year), so I wouldn't be afraid of taking Embiid at 5 if he's out for the full year --as long as I was really, really confident that it wasn't systemic. I don't know one way or the other. If Embiid's off the table, I think you put the pick up again to see what you can get. As I said before, I don't think there's enough of a difference between 5 and 12 or 16 that you don't try to pick up multiple assets (including future picks and/or young players) for them. If you're CHI, would you rather spend 3.01M on the #5 pick, or have a 3.8M cap hold for Mirotic, 16 and 19?

If I came out of the draft with Wiggins, or if I came out of the draft with Favors/Embiid or Favors/Gordon, or if I came out with Favors/16 (Payne)/19 (Anderson or Lavine?)/Mirotic+future considerations, I might just think of the latter as a rival to the first. That is, if CHI wants #5 instead of future picks.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Thx for response . . . repped for the thread

Should be an interesting draft