Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Crisis

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PapaG

PapaG

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I thought the debate was over, and that consensus science ruled? Does this new consensus mean that AGW is a hoax and false science? :confused:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesta...cientists-skeptical-of-global-warming-crisis/

Don’t look now, but maybe a scientific consensus exists concerning global warming after all. Only 36 percent of geoscientists and engineers believe that humans are creating a global warming crisis, according to a survey reported in the peer-reviewed Organization Studies. By contrast, a strong majority of the 1,077 respondents believe that nature is the primary cause of recent global warming and/or that future global warming will not be a very serious problem.

The survey results show geoscientists and engineers hold similar views as meteorologists. Two recent surveys of meteorologists (summarized here and here) revealed similar skepticism of alarmist global warming claims.

According to the newly published survey of geoscientists and engineers, merely 36 percent of respondents fit the “Comply with Kyoto” model. The scientists in this group “express the strong belief that climate change is happening, that it is not a normal cycle of nature, and humans are the main or central cause.”
…
The survey finds that 24 percent of the scientist respondents fit the “Nature Is Overwhelming” model. “In their diagnostic framing, they believe that changes to the climate are natural, normal cycles of the Earth.” Moreover, “they strongly disagree that climate change poses any significant public risk and see no impact on their personal lives.”
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Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

I found this comment to the op-ed piece telling and witty:



If you read the study, you’ll find that the scientists polled are all members of the Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists in Alberta (APEGA).

According to the study’s authors, “The petroleum industry – through oil and gas companies, related industrial services, and consulting services – is the largest employer, either directly or indirectly, of professional engineers and geoscientists in Alberta…These professionals and their organizations are regulated by a single professional self-regulatory authority –APEGA.”

Given that the vast majority of participants in the poll are directly employed not just by the petroleum industry, but by a sector of the industry involved in one of the dirtiest methods of petroleum extraction (tar sands), it doesn’t seem at all surprising that an inordinate number of them would doubt the danger of climate change, or feel that it’s unlikely to impact them personally. (Especially given the fact that Alberta is hardly at risk from rising sea levels.)

What’s telling is that a very large percentage of them (36%) are nevertheless highly concerned about climate change. One wonders how they sleep at night.

It would be interesting to see the results of a similar poll taken amongst engineers and geoscientists in, say, Bangladesh.
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

Treaty_of_Batum said:
I found this comment to the op-ed piece telling and witty:



If you read the study, you’ll find that the scientists polled are all members of the Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists in Alberta (APEGA).

According to the study’s authors, “The petroleum industry – through oil and gas companies, related industrial services, and consulting services – is the largest employer, either directly or indirectly, of professional engineers and geoscientists in Alberta…These professionals and their organizations are regulated by a single professional self-regulatory authority –APEGA.”

Given that the vast majority of participants in the poll are directly employed not just by the petroleum industry, but by a sector of the industry involved in one of the dirtiest methods of petroleum extraction (tar sands), it doesn’t seem at all surprising that an inordinate number of them would doubt the danger of climate change, or feel that it’s unlikely to impact them personally. (Especially given the fact that Alberta is hardly at risk from rising sea levels.)

What’s telling is that a very large percentage of them (36%) are nevertheless highly concerned about climate change. One wonders how they sleep at night.

It would be interesting to see the results of a similar poll taken amongst engineers and geoscientists in, say, Bangladesh.
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So every engineer and geoscientist in that study works in the petroleum industry?
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

I'm sure PapaG just didn't come across that part.

E: I'm also sure his title wasn't meant to mislead anyone that it was a majority in the study, not a majority of all scientists, or even a majority of scientists in the US, nor a majority of scientists in the direct field of climate science.
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

Eastoff said:
I'm sure PapaG just didn't come across that part.
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It is a comment, and apparently isn't completely accurate.
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

PapaG said:
So every engineer and geoscientist in that study works in the petroleum industry?
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This is pretty classic denialist cherry-picking. The authors surveyed a group a geoscientists in Alberta that were largely drawn from industry. This is nothing like the Oreskes surveys which evaluate the position of a cross-section of experts and consistently find that the overwhelming majority of climate scientists accept the consensus. This is like surveying the tobacco companies on whether or not they believe smoking causes cancer.
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

PapaG said:
It is a comment, and apparently isn't completely accurate.
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As in previous weeks, your editorial rests on misrepresentation of the facts. The survey was conducted by APEGA, a professional organization of engineers and geoscientists in the province of Alberta. According to the study you cite:

“[T]he petroleum industry – through oil and gas companies, related industrial services, and consulting services – is the largest employer, either directly or indirectly, of professional engineers and geoscientists in Alberta.”

Failing to mention this fact is a clear case of misrepresentation. Why are you so eager to mislead Forbes readers? Obviously these survey results cannot honestly be extrapolated to engineers and geoscientists in general as you are trying to do.

* * *

To, to summarize, this paper demonstrated that when surveying a population, largely consisting of geoscientists and engineers working for the the oil and gas industry, the most common view of global warming (between 36 and 41% if you add the two frames) is that it’s real and we need to do something about it. About 34% of respondents were hostile to the idea of green house gas-cause global warming and the consensus science, and these individuals were more likely to be in the upper tiers of these corporations. Finally, about 17% of respondents said we’re screwed either way (the rest couldn’t be grouped or denied adequate expertise to respond).

In other words, it kind of shows the exact opposite of what Taylor suggests, and could not possibly be generalized to scientists as whole.

lol
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

I suggest that you two read the "Methods" section of the actual study, and you'll find that the authors of the study account for this as a part of their sample pool.

I'm not sure either of you know how to read an empirical study and P-values, though. Fortunately, I do from my days in the medical field.
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

Treaty_of_Batum said:
As in previous weeks, your editorial rests on misrepresentation of the facts. As billb notes, the survey was conducted by APEGA, a professional organization of engineers and geoscientists in the province of Alberta. According to the study you cite:

“[T]he petroleum industry – through oil and gas companies, related industrial services, and consulting services – is the largest employer, either directly or indirectly, of professional engineers and geoscientists in Alberta.”

Failing to mention this fact is a clear case of misrepresentation. Why are you so eager to mislead Forbes readers? Obviously these survey results cannot honestly be extrapolated to engineers and geoscientists in general as you are trying to do.
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It's mentioned RIGHT IN THE STUDY. Read the study and argue with it.
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

PapaG said:
I suggest that you two read the "Methods" section of the actual study, and you'll find that the authors of the study account for this as a part of their sample pool.

I'm not sure either of you know how to read an empirical study and P-values, though. Fortunately, I do from my days in the medical field.
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Organization Studies


Organization Studies (OS) publishes peer-reviewed, top quality theoretical and empirical research with the aim of promoting the understanding of organizations, organizing and the organized in and between societies. OS is a multidisciplinary journal with global reach, rooted in the social sciences, inspired by diversity, comparative in outlook and open to paradigmatic plurality. It is recognized as one of the world's highest impact management journals through inclusion in the Financial Times' list of leading journals. OS is published in collaboration with EGOS, the European Group for Organizational Studies.



http://oss.sagepub.com/
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

SlyPokerDog said:
Organization Studies


Organization Studies (OS) publishes peer-reviewed, top quality theoretical and empirical research with the aim of promoting the understanding of organizations, organizing and the organized in and between societies. OS is a multidisciplinary journal with global reach, rooted in the social sciences, inspired by diversity, comparative in outlook and open to paradigmatic plurality. It is recognized as one of the world's highest impact management journals through inclusion in the Financial Times' list of leading journals. OS is published in collaboration with EGOS, the European Group for Organizational Studies.



http://oss.sagepub.com/
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Is this who published the survey?
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

PapaG said:
It's mentioned RIGHT IN THE STUDY. Read the study and argue with it.
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For those interested in what the study actually says, I would suggest actually reading it, rather than accepting this summary at face value. I would describe the paper as demonstrating that within a population of geoscientists in Alberta, largely coming from the oil and gas industry, there are 5 general ways of viewing global warming, or “frames”. The most common of these frames is actually the one most consistent with the IPCC consensus at 36%, that green house gases are the driver of global warming and we need to do something about it. Another 5% believed that regulation for green house gases was necessary even if there still is uncertainty or nature as a dominant driver of climate change. Other frames included a one based on fear of economic regulation (10%) that is largely hostile to the IPCC consensus, and another that nature was the primary driver of global warming (24%), man is insignificant, and these respondents used emotionally-heated language and religious metaphor to attack believers in global warming. There were also frames that could be described as fatalist (17%), global warming is real, but we can’t really do anything about it etc.
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

PapaG said:
I suggest that you two read the "Methods" section of the actual study, and you'll find that the authors of the study account for this as a part of their sample pool.

I'm not sure either of you know how to read an empirical study and P-values, though. Fortunately, I do from my days in the medical field.
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you mean this little part?
While this is, effectively, a convenience (nonprobability) sample of self-selected respondents, the respondents are similar to the general APEGA membership when compared on professional designation, age, and gender as of October 2007
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Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

A better headline would be, “According to a non-scientific survey, a majority of petroleum engineers working in Alberta accept that humans are in part responsible for climate change”
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

The 2 authors aren't scientists. One is an economist in Denmark. The other is a Ph.D. student at the U. of Alberta. Her easy interdisciplinary Masters is between Sociology and Engineering. She has published twice including this time, both propaganda.

Alberta is like Texas, full of big oil companies and conservative politics. This paper is very political and consists of her personal interpretations and subjective groupings after surveying conservative Alberta oilmen. Half of the paragraphs are explicitly political. It goes on and on like a polemic instead of a survey. Here is an excerpt, and I could quote many more like it.

In 2006, when Stephen Harper was elected as the first Prime Minister of Canada from Calgary, his Conservative minority government removed the Government of Canada’s climate change website. And, to reverse the criticism of a previous government’s choice to sign the Kyoto Protocol, in December 2011 Canada formally withdrew from the international treaty to avoid the estimated CAD 14 billion in penalties (CBC, 2011).

With more than 15% higher GHG emissions than conventional oil, the oil sands have been categorized as particularly ‘dirty’ oil (Nikiforuk, 2008) and have become the ‘whipping boy of European and American green groups fighting the “Great Climate War”’ (Sweeney, 2010, p. 160). Al Gore builds on this by stating that the ‘oil sands threaten our survival as a species’ and ‘Junkies find veins in the toes when the ones in their arms and their legs collapse.
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http://oss.sagepub.com/content/33/11/1477.full
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

While I skimmed the paper and wrote my conclusions, Treaty of Batum found comments that agreed with what I noticed. Beautiful. Nice to see this failure of an opening post shot down.
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

papag, you make a post yesterday saying this:

The uber-intelligent atheists patting themselves on the back for this study in this thread didn't even read the details of the study, which is clearly biased and is completely unscientific

And then you post this study and question if the study means AGW is a hoax and false science? Did you read this study and figure out it is bias and does not consists of actual scientists?
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

I know PapaG and he doesn't recycle and drinks coffee in a styrofoam cup!
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

How could as many as 36% of these guys be in the man made global warming camp? If its so biased,that number should be near zero...

That said, the article was one of the worst examples of journalism I've seen since the "north pole is a lake" article.

Even the data in the poll as-is could be interpreted something like 24% skeptics, the rest think man has some part in warming.
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

HCP said:
I know PapaG and he doesn't recycle and drinks coffee in a styrofoam cup!
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Get him to post, using a Dixie cup and a string!

Denny Crane said:
How could as many as 36% of these guys be in the man made global warming camp? If its so biased,that number should be near zero...

That said, the article was one of the worst examples of journalism I've seen since the "north pole is a lake" article.

Even the data in the poll as-is could be interpreted something like 24% skeptics, the rest think man has some part in warming.
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That's what I meant about the sociology student's "personal interpretations and subjective groupings." The oil industry lobby paid her to send loaded questionnaires to its members, receive only some back from the most motivated members, read comments, and group them her own way.
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

You don't see 36% going against the supposed interests of their industry to be ... Going against the interests of heir industry?
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

I enjoyed the read.

No, not the link, but the way that it was thoroughly debunked here.
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

Irony is lost on many.

"Peer-reviewed"

:devilwink:
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

PapaG said:
Irony is lost on many.

"Peer-reviewed"

:devilwink:
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OK . . . you expect someone to buy that?

There is really nothing more to say about that article, just cut bait now and call it a day. :)
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

PapaG said:
Irony is lost on many.

"Peer-reviewed"

:devilwink:
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I see. You were just joking. You already knew everything in this thread. You had read the paper, not just the Forbes editorial, before starting this thread.
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

Treaty_of_Batum said:
OK . . . you expect someone to buy that?

There is really nothing more to say about that article, just cut bait now and call it a day. :)
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Do I need to post the "atheism intelligence" thread to make it full circle?
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

really?
 
Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

PapaG said:
Do I need to post the "atheism intelligence" thread to make it full circle?
Click to expand...

hhhahahahaaahahahhaahahah
 
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