OT Pelicans re-sign Cousins?

[CupWizier]

Pelicans this year are 22-13 without Cousins and 26-21 with Cousins. Cousins will likely be demanding around 30 mil first season.

 

[KingSpeed]

Considering they may reach the NBA Finals without him? I'd save the money and let him go elsewhere. Lakers?

Ball/Ingram/PlayoffP/Randle/Cousins

 

[Pinwheel1]

Pelicans this year are 22-13 without Cousins and 26-21 with Cousins. Cousins will likely be demanding around 30 mil first season.

Yes sign him and trade him later if it doesn't work out. It is not an easy choice when you are talking about that much money and I think AD plays better without him, but with AD's injury history Cousins is a nice security blanket and should bring back assets in a trade. The only down side is if it doesn't work out will they have to take back 30 million just to move him? But yes I would re-sign him.

 

[Chris Craig]

Considering they may reach the NBA Finals without him? I'd save the money and let him go elsewhere. Lakers?

Ball/Ingram/PlayoffP/Randle/Cousins

Wait you mean

Ball/Ingram/Lebron\George\Cousins

 

[KingSpeed]

Wait you mean

Ball/Ingram/Lebron\George\Cousins

No. Lakers only have room for 2 max guys, lol, not 3.

 

[AFully22]

They are a better team with AD at the 5 and Mirotic at the 4. That was a really smart move from them at the deadline. Will they resign Boogie? Probably. But I wouldn’t be suprised if they find out they are better without him and they have to trade him later.

Really, if you look at their roster as it is today they are pretty well constructed. Two defensive guards that can lock their man down and allow AD to sort of player ‘rover’ and block shots. A knockdown shooter at the 4 opens up a lot of spacing, Rondo just looking to be a playmaker and set up his guys instead of worrying about getting his numbers, Holiday when healthy can score at all three levels and plays well with AD in the PNR. Etwaun Moore shot the shit out the ball. When they are clicking, like they were against us, they are legit. It’s the injury history to AD, Holiday, and now Boogie that will likely hold them back.

 

[Sarni]

Of course they should re-sign him. You don't let a player like that walk away for free and I am pretty confident that he will still be a very good player after he returns from the injury. If it doesn't work out, they can still probably trade him somewhere else and get a good return back.

What exactly is the benefit of not signing him? They can't use that money to make an offer to anybody else anyway as they'll be above the cap with Holiday and Davis deals.

 

[CupWizier]

Of course they should re-sign him. You don't let a player like that walk away for free and I am pretty confident that he will still be a very good player after he returns from the injury. If it doesn't work out, they can still probably trade him somewhere else and get a good return back.

What exactly is the benefit of not signing him? They can't use that money to make an offer to anybody else anyway as they'll be above the cap with Holiday and Davis deals.

I don't think it's as black and white as you may think. Looking at it by the numbers would lead one to say no.

With Cousins 26-21 which projects tor a record of 45-37 not good enough for the playoffs this year

Without Cousins 22-13 which projects to 50-32 which would be a 3rd seed this year

Looking at that alone says no, but then you look at the salary cap implications. With letting Cousins walk they end up with a team salary projection of around $120 mil which will be under the luxury tax.

Now adding in Cousins projected salary of around 30 mil and then Rondo along with filler to the roster will push that team salary in the 140-145mil range. Factor in the cost of luxury tax and restrictions of ability to make deas that salary would be equivalent to approximately $160 mil with about 20mil worth of luxury tax payments and a possibility of being in the luxury tax as a repeater which limits a team considerably from being able to make deals and sign players. So it appears it would cost a lot more for a possibility of being worse. Sometimes walking away from a deal is better than making a deal. If these numbers project out somewhat accurate, which team would you choose if you owned the Pelicans? Sure you can trade Cousins, but it would also require the team to take back comparable salary.

If you want to factor in last year after the trade the Pelicans are an even worse 10-11 with Cousins or a projection of 43-41 record including all games Cousins has played for the Pelicans.

Just another way of analyzing what the best direction might be.

 

[Sarni]

I don't think it's as black and white as you may think. Looking at it by the numbers would lead one to say no.

With Cousins 26-21 which projects tor a record of 45-37 not good enough for the playoffs this year

Without Cousins 22-13 which projects to 50-32 which would be a 3rd seed this year

Looking at that alone says no, but then you look at the salary cap implications. With letting Cousins walk they end up with a team salary projection of around $120 mil which will be under the luxury tax.

Now adding in Cousins projected salary of around 30 mil and then Rondo along with filler to the roster will push that team salary in the 140-145mil range. Factor in the cost of luxury tax and restrictions of ability to make deas that salary would be equivalent to approximately $160 mil with about 20mil worth of luxury tax payments and a possibility of being in the luxury tax as a repeater which limits a team considerably from being able to make deals and sign players. So it appears it would cost a lot more for a possibility of being worse. Sometimes walking away from a deal is better than making a deal. If these numbers project out somewhat accurate, which team would you choose if you owned the Pelicans? Sure you can trade Cousins, but it would also require the team to take back comparable salary.

If you want to factor in last year after the trade the Pelicans are an even worse 10-11 with Cousins or a projection of 43-41 record including all games Cousins has played for the Pelicans.

Just another way of analyzing what the best direction might be.

I don’t like looking at numbers just like that. In basketball there’s this general consensus that you can explain everything with stats but you can’t.

Cousins injury brought the best out of Davis who went on a monster run afterwards because he felt he needed to carry the team. Mirotic had a great run at the beginning of his New Orleans spell and he has had great time for the last week too but he is still a much, much worse player than Cousins on both ends of the floor. There is no way Boogie being there can make them a worse team.

Also, with players like Cousins you can get out of that contract and get assets in return if you want to. Clippers got Harris, Bradley and a good pick in return for Blake Griffin, which was much better than letting him walk three months earlier. If you are in the position Pelicans are in currently you need to retain your players because you won’t get anyone better in the free agency.

I would extend him and then throw offers to any good shooter out there. Vanvleet, Cook, Bullock - just offer them MLE deals that they might not get elsewhere or try to convince them to join the project for a year like they did with Ian Clark.

Pelicans are one of the most intriguing teams in the league right now. They are going to be even stronger when Cousins comes back as he will add another dimension to that team. They could even go super big with Mirotic at the 3, they could go twin towers with three small shooters. They have their big 3 sorted with Cousins, Davis and Holiday who has returned to his very best or even exceeded it. The last thing they need is another rebuild and letting a huge asset leave for nothing.

 

[SportsAndWhine]

No way do the Pels re-sign Boogie. Looking at him on the bench, he seems to have gained 50 pounds, and his injury will hamper him the rest of his career (see also: Wesley Matthews). Mirotic was a revelation for them, possibly the best move any team made this season. Rondo is turning into the real treasure of the deal with the Kings. Boogie is not going to be a Pelican next year.

 

[Sarni]

BTW not resigning Cousins condemns them to mid-tier level forever. They aren’t going to win a championship or even get close with the current roster and they are also going to run out of options to improve it. They’ve been trading away their picks to compete now for a few years, they don’t have any young players who could improve significantly.

Cousins might give them a small chance to make a jump to the next level. He might also give them a small chance to trade their way into contention. Letting him go has zero benefit whatsoever, aside from the money factor of their owners care about it. The next time they can use that money will be when Davis expires.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Offer a sign and trade of Cousins for ET and Meyers.

I just want the Pelicans to laugh at Olshey instead of the team.

 

[Phatguysrule]

They need to re-sign him. It gives them more options moving forward.

 

[CupWizier]

BTW not resigning Cousins condemns them to mid-tier level forever. They aren’t going to win a championship or even get close with the current roster and they are also going to run out of options to improve it. They’ve been trading away their picks to compete now for a few years, they don’t have any young players who could improve significantly.

Cousins might give them a small chance to make a jump to the next level. He might also give them a small chance to trade their way into contention. Letting him go has zero benefit whatsoever, aside from the money factor of their owners care about it. The next time they can use that money will be when Davis expires.

but the numbers say they are better without Cousins. Sacramento never went anywhere with Cousins either. Sure you can blame Sacramento but now we have 2 teams to support the idea that maybe Cousins doesn't help promote winning. It's nothing against his talent as obviously he is very talented. Just doesn't seem to result in wins. 30+ mil a year and paying the luxury tax for many years to have a worse record makes no sense and something the Pelicans really need to seriously look at. Maybe it will be different next year but it's an expensive gamble at this stage.

 

[SportsAndWhine]

They need to re-sign him. It gives them more options moving forward.

No way. Achilles injury, $30 million/year are a bad combo for flexibility. If he sucks out of the injury, they're stuck with him.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

No way. Achilles injury, $30 million/year are a bad combo for flexibility. If he sucks out of the injury, they're stuck with him.

And that's a problem why?

 

[SportsAndWhine]

And that's a problem why?

As a Blazers fan, yay! But honestly, nobody should be making the argument that the Pels would benefit from re-signing Cousins.

 

[Sarni]

but the numbers say they are better without Cousins. Sacramento never went anywhere with Cousins either. Sure you can blame Sacramento but now we have 2 teams to support the idea that maybe Cousins doesn't help promote winning. It's nothing against his talent as obviously he is very talented. Just doesn't seem to result in wins. 30+ mil a year and paying the luxury tax for many years to have a worse record makes no sense and something the Pelicans really need to seriously look at. Maybe it will be different next year but it's an expensive gamble at this stage.

He was surrounded by bad players at Sacramento for most of the time and in his final season there they were actually pretty close to the playoffs zone when he left.

As I said, I don’t believe that you can look at one season and straight up say they are better off without him. Their run towards the end of season consisted largely of teams that had little to play for. Before his injury they were still in the top 8 and had some very impressive performances like the win over Houston (game where he got injured) or a close battle with Warriors.

Few if any teams in this league have the answer to the Davis & Cousins. They might not provide results every single night but I truly think when the chips are down in the playoffs they would be competitive against anyone.

 

[Sarni]

As a Blazers fan, yay! But honestly, nobody should be making the argument that the Pels would benefit from re-signing Cousins.

How do they benefit from not re-signing him? Assume their owners don’t mind paying luxury tax as long as they are competitive, what is any possible benefit the team has from not having him around?

 

[CupWizier]

They need to re-sign him. It gives them more options moving forward.

Problem is, trading him will bring back basically equal salary and will still put them well into luxury tax hell for awhile. We were a 3rd seed this year and a little over the luxury tax and Olshey (probably via Paul Allen) traded Vonleh to get the team under the luxury tax to allow much more flexibility going forward. Pelicans would lose that ability. If Cousins had a better track record of promoting winning then yes, it's a no brainer.

It's a tough decision and if you believe the contention that Cousins doesn't help them win more, you don;t sign him and stay out of the luxury tax which not only costs a lot of money but also restricts ability to make deals and sign players. If you believe Cousins will promote more winning and willing to pay the luxury tax, then you sign him. By the way, to further expand on the numbers, Pelicans were 13-11 with Cousins playing last year. The Pelicans/ GS series might put more light on the idea, but I was very impressed with how the Pelicans played.

 

[Reep]

I think this will depend on how far the Pels end up going. If they make WCF, it's hard to argue signing Cousins would be helpful. Davis-Mirotec at the 5-4 was killer. I don't believe the same dynamic would happen with Cousins back as a starter, and he isn't coming off the bench.

 

[SportsAndWhine]

How do they benefit from not re-signing him? Assume their owners don’t mind paying luxury tax as long as they are competitive, what is any possible benefit the team has from not having him around?

Being stuck with a mostly useless player on a massive contract for years kind of sucks. $30 million a year is a lot of cash to pre-pay for finding out if the Boogie/Brow experiment is worth it, especially after you signed a hungry Mirotic and are getting benefits from that right now.

 

[CupWizier]

How do they benefit from not re-signing him? Assume their owners don’t mind paying luxury tax as long as they are competitive, what is any possible benefit the team has from not having him around?

Well, it's been proven that they have a much better winning percentage when Cousins doesn't play.

2017/18 without Cousins 22-13 projected out to 52-30 and 3rd seed

2017/18 with Cousins 26-21 projected out to 45-37 and missed the playoffs (10th place)

Pelicans also struggled last year as they were 13-11 with him.

You may not like numbers but they have to at least be a big part of the decision making.

 

[Phatguysrule]

Problem is, trading him will bring back basically equal salary and will still put them well into luxury tax hell for awhile. We were a 3rd seed this year and a little over the luxury tax and Olshey (probably via Paul Allen) traded Vonleh to get the team under the luxury tax to allow much more flexibility going forward. Pelicans would lose that ability. If Cousins had a better track record of promoting winning then yes, it's a no brainer.

It's a tough decision and if you believe the contention that Cousins doesn't help them win more, you don;t sign him and stay out of the luxury tax which not only costs a lot of money but also restricts ability to make deals and sign players. If you believe Cousins will promote more winning and willing to pay the luxury tax, then you sign him. By the way, to further expand on the numbers, Pelicans were 13-11 with Cousins playing last year. The Pelicans/ GS series might put more light on the idea, but I was very impressed with how the Pelicans played.

I think you'd have an easier time getting value out of Cousins than Vonleh... You could trade Cousins for a large expiring deal and draft pick, or any number of creative things. We've done that kind of thing plenty of times. Vonleh didn't have near the upside that a Cousins deal would have. You can't just let that go if you want to compete.

*Edit*
However, if he has really gained a ton of weight then I'd have to make the decision based on a physical assessment. If he's not willing to do a workout that says a lot.

 

[CupWizier]

Being stuck with a mostly useless player on a massive contract for years kind of sucks. $30 million a year is a lot of cash to pre-pay for finding out if the Boogie/Brow experiment is worth it, especially after you signed a hungry Mirotic and are getting benefits from that right now.

Another factor is they also need to be able to sign Rondo in the off season and then the next year and Mirotic comes up for contract. It might make more sense to see if they can do a sign and trade with a team that has some cap space as well as some assets that won't bloat their team salary as much as Cousins would. Lakers could be a team in that category. Maybe an Ingram/ Kubac for Cousins and lakers absorb the difference in cap space. Or replace Ingram with Kuzma. Pelicans won;t have a huge luxury tax bill and a quality 3/4 player that could be an all star and a young prospect at center to back up Davis.

 

[CupWizier]

I think you'd have an easier time getting value out of Cousins than Vonleh... You could trade Cousins for a large expiring deal and draft pick, or any number of creative things. We've done that kind of thing plenty of times. Vonleh didn't have near the upside that a Cousins deal would have. You can't just let that go if you want to compete.

*Edit*
However, if he has really gained a ton of weight then I'd have to make the decision based on a physical assessment. If he's not willing to do a workout that says a lot.

My Vonleh scenario was really only meant to demonstrate that teams value being under the luxury tax, not as a comparison of players. Re-signing Cousins makes it difficult when he becomes trade eligible and would be after the teams with cap space have likely used up majority if not all of it so that might not be available. Better to do it before the season in a sign and trade like I outlined in my other post.