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THE HCP

THE HCP

NorthEastPortland'sFinest
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Is there one that breaks it all down!!!!
 
"THE" said:
Is there one that breaks it all down!!!!
Click to expand...

so excited you can't even use a ? huh? :devilwink:

OKC vs LAL is set in stone now. If we win our next game we are guaranteed 6th over SAS. Phoenix still plays Denver and Utah. If phoenix wins both and we win against GSW, we would play them.
 
Lakers are #1
OKC is #8
Portland has the tie breaker over San Antonio
Dallas has the tie breaker over Phoenix and Denver
Utah has the tie breaker over Dallas
Denver has the tie breaker over Utah
Utah has a 2-1 lead over Phoenix with 1 game to go
Phoenix has a 2-1 lead over Denver with 1 game to go

This is the best teams can hope for:

Dallas wins, or Utah loses, Dallas is #2
Utah wins out, and Dallas and Denver lose out, Utah is #2
Phoenix wins out, they're #3
Denver wins out, they're #3
Portland wins, or San Antonio loses, Portland is #6
San Antonio wins, and Portland loses, San Antonio is #6

Remaining Games:

Tuesday
Utah @ Golden State
Denver @ Phoenix

Wednesday
Phoenix @ Utah
San Antonio @ Dallas
Golden State @ Portland
 
Last edited:
go anyone playing utah!...unless we win wednesday?!!????
 
L.A. Lakers vs OKC Thunder is set. Dallas is (almost definitely) the #2 seed.

If we win on Wednesday, we are the #6 seed and the Spurs are the #7 seed. That leaves #3-5 still up for grabs. If Phoenix wins their next two games, they will get the #3 seed. That would create this bracket (my preferred scenario):

Lakers or Thunder vs Jazz or Nuggets

Mavericks or Spurs vs the Suns or Blazers

The winners play in the WCF
 
Last edited:
Entity said:
Lakers are #1
OKC is #8
Portland has the tie breaker over San Antonio
Dallas has the tie breaker over Phoenix and Denver
Utah has the tie breaker over Dallas
Denver has the tie breaker over Utah
Utah has a 2-1 lead over Phoenix with 1 game to go
Phoenix has a 2-1 lead over Denver with 1 game to go

This is the best teams can hope for:

Dallas wins, or Utah loses, Dallas is #2
Utah wins out, and Dallas and Denver lose out, Utah is #2
Phoenix wins out, they're #3
Denver wins out, they're #3
Portland wins, or San Antonio loses, Portland is #6
San Antonio wins, and Portland loses, San Antonio is #6

Remaining Games:

Denver @ Phoenix
Phoenix @ Utah
San Antonio @ Dallas
Golden State @ Portland
Utah @ Golden State
Click to expand...

Repped. Well done.
 
KingSpeed said:
L.A. Lakers vs OKC Thunder is set. Dallas is the #2 seed.

If we win on Wednesday, we are the #6 seed and the Spurs are the #7 seed. That leaves #3-5 still up for grabs. If Phoenix wins their next two games, they will get the #3 seed. That would create this bracket (my preferred scenario):

Lakers or Thunder vs Jazz or Nuggets

Mavericks or Spurs vs the Suns or Blazers

The winners play in the WCF
Click to expand...
well that would be fucking sweet
 
Basically, if Utah beats Golden State, and all the home teams win, then it looks like this:

#1 Lakers
#8 Thunder

#4 Suns
#5 Nuggets

#3 Jazz
#6 Trail Blazers

#2 Mavericks
#7 Spurs
 
There are 5 games remaining that could impact the playoffs:

UTH@GSW DEN@PHX
SAS@DAL GSW@POR PHX@UTH:

That means there are 32 possible permutations of game outcomes:
GSW DEN DAL GSW PHX
GSW DEN DAL GSW UTH
GSW DEN DAL POR PHX
GSW DEN DAL POR UTH
GSW DEN SAS GSW PHX
GSW DEN SAS GSW UTH
GSW DEN SAS POR PHX
GSW DEN SAS POR UTH
GSW PHX DAL GSW PHX
GSW PHX DAL GSW UTH
GSW PHX DAL POR PHX
GSW PHX DAL POR UTH
GSW PHX SAS GSW PHX
GSW PHX SAS GSW UTH
GSW PHX SAS POR PHX
GSW PHX SAS POR UTH
UTH DEN DAL GSW PHX
UTH DEN DAL GSW UTH
UTH DEN DAL POR PHX
UTH DEN DAL POR UTH
UTH DEN SAS GSW PHX
UTH DEN SAS GSW UTH
UTH DEN SAS POR PHX
UTH DEN SAS POR UTH
UTH PHX DAL GSW PHX
UTH PHX DAL GSW UTH
UTH PHX DAL POR PHX
UTH PHX DAL POR UTH
UTH PHX SAS GSW PHX
UTH PHX SAS GSW UTH
UTH PHX SAS POR PHX
UTH PHX SAS POR UTH

These would be the losses for seeds 2-5
DAL DEN UTH PHX
27 28 30 29
27 28 29 30
27 28 30 29
27 28 29 30
28 28 30 29
28 28 29 30
28 28 30 29
28 28 29 30
27 29 30 28
27 29 29 29
27 29 30 28
27 29 29 29
28 29 30 28
28 29 29 29
28 29 30 28
28 29 29 29
27 28 29 29
27 28 28 30
27 28 29 29
27 28 28 30
28 28 29 29
28 28 28 30
28 28 29 29
28 28 28 30
27 29 29 28
27 29 28 29
27 29 29 28
27 29 28 29
28 29 29 28
28 29 28 29
28 29 29 28
28 29 28 29


These would be the playoff seeds 2-7:
DAL DEN PHX UTH POR SAS
DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
DAL DEN PHX UTH POR SAS
DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
DAL DEN PHX UTH SAS POR
DAL DEN UTH PHX SAS POR
DAL DEN PHX UTH POR SAS
DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
DAL PHX DEN UTH POR SAS
DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
DAL PHX DEN UTH POR SAS
DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
DAL PHX DEN UTH SAS POR
DAL DEN UTH PHX SAS POR
DAL PHX DEN UTH POR SAS
DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
DAL DEN PHX UTH POR SAS
DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
DAL DEN PHX UTH POR SAS
DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
DAL DEN PHX UTH SAS POR
DAL DEN UTH PHX SAS POR
DAL DEN PHX UTH POR SAS
DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
DAL PHX DEN UTH POR SAS
DAL UTH PHX DEN POR SAS
DAL PHX DEN UTH POR SAS
DAL UTH PHX DEN POR SAS
DAL PHX DEN UTH SAS POR
UTH DAL PHX DEN SAS POR
DAL PHX DEN UTH POR SAS
UTH DAL PHX DEN POR SAS

Assuming a team has a 50/50 chance at a win, then:

Dallas has a 93.8% chance of #2 and 6.3% at #3
Denver has a 62.5% chance at #3, 25% at #4 and 12.5% at #5
Utah has a 6.3% chance at #2, 6.3% chance at #3, 37.5% chance at #4 and 50% chance at #5
Phoenix has a 25% chance at #3, 37.5% chance at #4 and 37.5% chance at #5

Portland has a 75% chance at #6


Another way of looking at it is the #2 seed is 93.8% Dallas and 6.3% Utah.

Chance of being the #3 seed is 6.3% Dallas, 62.5% Denver, 6.3% Utah and 25% Phoenix.
 
Last edited:
Draco said:
There are 5 games remaining that could impact the playoffs:

UTH@GSW DEN@PHX
SAS@DAL GSW@POR PHX@UTH:

That means there are 32 possible permutations of game outcomes:
Click to expand...


permutation |ˌpərmyoŏˈtā sh ən|
noun
a way, esp. one of several possible variations, in which a set or number of things can be ordered or arranged : his thoughts raced ahead to fifty different permutations of what he must do.
• Mathematics the action of changing the arrangement, esp. the linear order, of a set of items.
DERIVATIVES
permutational |-ˈtā sh ənəl| adjective
ORIGIN late Middle English (in the sense [exchange, barter] ): via Old French from Latin permutatio(n-), from the verb permutare ‘change completely’ (see permute )
 
Entity said:
Lakers are #1
OKC is #8
Portland has the tie breaker over San Antonio
Dallas has the tie breaker over Phoenix and Denver
Utah has the tie breaker over Dallas
Denver has the tie breaker over Utah
Utah has a 2-1 lead over Phoenix with 1 game to go
Phoenix has a 2-1 lead over Denver with 1 game to go

This is the best teams can hope for:

Dallas wins, or Utah loses, Dallas is #2
Utah wins out, and Dallas and Denver lose out, Utah is #2
Phoenix wins out, they're #3
Denver wins out, they're #3
Portland wins, or San Antonio loses, Portland is #6
San Antonio wins, and Portland loses, San Antonio is #6

Remaining Games:

Tuesday
Utah @ Golden State
Denver @ Phoenix

Wednesday
Phoenix @ Utah
San Antonio @ Dallas
Golden State @ Portland
Click to expand...

Thanks man! I gonna have to get this tattooed on my back!
 
So now it's this:

Lakers are #1
OKC is #8
Portland has the tie breaker over San Antonio
Dallas has the tie breaker over Phoenix and Denver
Utah has the tie breaker over Dallas
Denver has the tie breaker over Utah
Phoenix has the tie breaker over Denver
Utah has a 2-1 lead over Phoenix with 1 game to go

The best they can hope for:

If Dallas wins or Utah loses, Dallas is #2
If Utah wins and Dallas loses, Utah is #2
If Phoenix wins they're #3
Denver needs Utah to lose to be #4
If Portland wins or San Antonio loses, Portland is #6
If San Antonio wins and Portland loses, San Antonio is #6

Remaining Games:

Phoenix @ Utah
San Antonio @ Dallas
Golden State @ Portland

UTH DAL POR = #2 Dallas, #3 Utah, #4 Phoenix, #5 Denver, #6 Portland, #7 San Antonio
UTH DAL GS = #2 Dallas, #3 Utah, #4 Phoenix, #5 Denver, #6 Portland, #7 San Antonio
UTH SA POR = #2 Utah, #3 Dallas, #4 Phoenix, #5 Denver, #6 Portland, #7 San Antonio
UTH SA GS = #2 Utah, #3 Dallas, #4 Phoenix, #5 Denver, #6 San Antonio, #7 Portland
PHX DAL POR = #2 Dallas, #3 Phoenix, #4 Denver, #5 Utah, #6 Portland, #7 San Antonio
PHX DAL GS = #2 Dallas, #3 Phoenix, #4 Denver, #5 Utah, #6 Portland, #7 San Antonio
PHX SA POR = #2 Dallas, #3 Phoenix, #4 Denver, #5 Utah, #6 Portland, #7 San Antonio
PHX SA GS = #2 Dallas, #3 Phoenix, #4 Denver, #5 Utah, #6 San Antonio, #7 Portland

Dallas 75% #2, 25% #3
Utah 25% #2, 25% #3, 50% #5
Phoenix 50% #3, 50% #4
Denver 50% #4, 50% #5
Portland 75% #6, 25% #7
San Antonio 25% #6, 75% #7
 
Entity said:
So now it's this:

Lakers are #1
OKC is #8
Portland has the tie breaker over San Antonio
Dallas has the tie breaker over Phoenix and Denver
Utah has the tie breaker over Dallas
Denver has the tie breaker over Utah
Phoenix has the tie breaker over Denver
Utah has a 2-1 lead over Phoenix with 1 game to go

The best they can hope for:

If Dallas wins or Utah loses, Dallas is #2
If Utah wins and Dallas loses, Utah is #2
If Phoenix wins they're #3
Denver needs Utah to lose to be #4
If Portland wins or San Antonio loses, Portland is #6
If San Antonio wins and Portland loses, San Antonio is #6

Remaining Games:

Phoenix @ Utah
San Antonio @ Dallas
Golden State @ Portland

UTH DAL POR = #2 Dallas, #3 Utah, #4 Phoenix, #5 Denver, #6 Portland, #7 San Antonio
UTH DAL GS = #2 Dallas, #3 Utah, #4 Phoenix, #5 Denver, #6 Portland, #7 San Antonio
UTH SA POR = #2 Utah, #3 Dallas, #4 Phoenix, #5 Denver, #6 Portland, #7 San Antonio
UTH SA GS = #2 Utah, #3 Dallas, #4 Phoenix, #5 Denver, #6 San Antonio, #7 Portland
PHX DAL POR = #2 Dallas, #3 Phoenix, #4 Denver, #5 Utah, #6 Portland, #7 San Antonio
PHX DAL GS = #2 Dallas, #3 Phoenix, #4 Denver, #5 Utah, #6 Portland, #7 San Antonio
PHX SA POR = #2 Dallas, #3 Phoenix, #4 Denver, #5 Utah, #6 Portland, #7 San Antonio
PHX SA GS = #2 Dallas, #3 Phoenix, #4 Denver, #5 Utah, #6 San Antonio, #7 Portland

Dallas 75% #2, 25% #3
Utah 25% #2, 25% #3, 50% #5
Phoenix 50% #3, 50% #4
Denver 50% #4, 50% #5
Portland 75% #6, 25% #7
San Antonio 25% #6, 75% #7
Click to expand...

I'd love to see the averages based on probability of them winning the games.
 
This is how I'm looking at it:

If Dallas wins we play winner of Phoenix/Utah.

If San Antonio wins the 3 seed will be Phoenix (if Phoenix wins) or Dallas (if Utah wins)

If San Antonio wins and we lose we would play Dallas (if Phoenix wins) or Utah (if Utah wins)
 
This is the best chart off of a playoff website that I could find. It looks like Dallas??!!

am-tx2.gif
 
Instead of being lazy, I went ahead and created a spreadsheet that would help me determine the likely-hood of where each team would finish based on the probability of all three games. For the example below, I predicted the following.

Code: 
Game Odds							
Blazers	  90%	Warriors  10%				
Jazz	  55%	Suns	45%				
Mavericks 60%	Spurs	40%				
							
Scenario Odds							
Jazz	55%	Mavs	60%	Blazers	90%		29.7%
Jazz	55%	Mavs	60%	Warriors  10%		3.3%
Jazz	55%	Spurs	40%	Blazers	90%		19.8%
Jazz	55%	Spurs	40%	Warriors  10%		2.2%
Suns	45%	Mavs	60%	Blazers	90%		24.3%
Suns	45%	Mavs	60%	Warriors  10%		2.7%
Suns	45%	Spurs	40%	Blazers	90%		16.2%
Suns	45%	Spurs	40%	Warriors  10%		1.8%
							
	2	3	4	5	6	7	
Mavs	78.0%	22.0%					
Jazz	22.0%	33.0%		45.0%			
Nuggets			55.0%	45.0%			
Suns		45.0%	55.0%				
Blazers					96.0%	4.0%	
Spurs					4.0%	96.0%
 
I too decided to really apply myself tonight, but I think I got my algorithms a bit messed up when I spilled some Hi-C on my flowcharts. Regardless, I'll post the results, and we'll see how it pans out tomorrow.

I see a 79% chance of us playing Jan Brady in the first round depending on the San Antonio outcome, but I want to stress that these findings could be flawed, and I don't necessarily stand behind them. An outside shot still exists to play Alice, though.

brady_bunch.jpg
 
If Dallas wins their game (which should end right when ours starts), our game will not matter at all. I would hope that Nate rests the guys who need it if that happens.
 
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