Tough question. There's only 2-1/2 games that seperate us from the #8 seed Utah. And only 3-1/2 games with #9 Phoenix. As things currently stand, and assuming there are NO trades among the top 9 teams - I think we finish up somewhere 7-9. So many factors though. Does Utah get healthy? With T-Max out, can Yao stay healthy? How does the loss of Jason Terry affect the Mavs? I think we play about .500 the rest of the way w/o a trade (somewhere between 46-48 wins) with our current roster.
Now, if there is/are some trades it could change everything. Let's say the Suns send Amare to Chicago (or somewhere other than Portland) Even though it doesn't change our roster, it probably assures we at least get the #8 seed - even if we tank the 2nd half.
If we get Butler, RJeff, or Wallace AND we can somehow get Andre Miller . . . I think we have a chance at the #3 or #4 seed. I don't think we'd catch SA, but Denver isn't out of the question. Look at Denver's next 10 games. 3 game Eastern road trip, then games at home vs 3 good teams (Boston/LA/Atl) They also play at Utah and against us (at their place) Even their "cake" games are on the road, where anything can happen. Games at Philly, Chicago, Milwaukee, Indiana, Detroit, Utah, and Sac . . . not many "gimmes".
It's so close right now that we could either be #3 or #9. When you look at the difference between Denver (#3) and Phoenix (#9) it's not that signifigant. There are several teams in our way that aren't very deep and are one injury away from slipping out of the race (Houston/Yao, Dallas/Dirk, NO/Paul, Denver/Mello)
You could say that about us too - if Roy goes down we're toast, but we are deeper than most teams. If we end up with the #7 or #8 seed, we MIGHT win 1 playoff game. The Lakers and Spurs are just better than we are - by a lot. The playoff experience would be good for our young guys, but we have no shot at winning a series like that. We have to finish #6 or better to have a shot at the 2nd round.