Projecting the quest for home court advantage

[Draco]

After having so much fun projecting the next 10 games in Mags wonderful thread I decided to do something similar for the entire season. I was curious what level of wins our team could attain, and how these wins would be distributed throughout the season. My criteria was pretty straightforward, the Blazers should beat the bad teams both at home and on the road, beat the majority of good teams in Portland; but they will lose to playoff contending teams on the road. Of course actual results will not have us winning every game we are favored nor lose every game we are an underdog, but this is to create a simple baseline projection. Here it is:

Date Result Record Opponent
10/30 L 0-1 @PhoEniX
11/1 W 1-1 @Denver
11/2 W 2-1 San Antonio (b2b)
11/5 L 2-2 Houston
11/8 W 3-2 Sacramento
11/9 W 4-2 @Sacramento (b2b)
11/11 W 5-2 Detroit
11/13 W 6-2 Phoenix
11/15 W 7-2 @Boston
11/17 W 8-2 @Toronto
11/18 W 9-2 @brooklyn (b2b)

11/20 W 10-2 @Milwaukee
11/22 W 11-2 Chicago
11/23 L 11-3 @Golden State (b2b)
11/25 W 12-3 New York
11/27 W 13-3 @PhoEniX
12/1 W 14-3 @LA Lakers
12/2 L 14-4 Indiana (b2b)
12/4 W 15-4 Oklahoma City
12/6 W 16-4 Utah
12/7 W 17-4 Dallas (b2b)
12/9 W 18-4 @Utah
12/12 W 19-4 Houston
12/14 W 20-4 @Philadelphia
12/15 W 21-4 @Detroit (b2b)
12/17 W 22-4 @Cleveland
12/18 L 22-5 @Minnesota (b2b)
12/21 W 23-5 New Orleans
12/26 W 24-5 LA Clippers
12/28 L 24-6 Miami
12/30 L 24-7 @New Orleans
12/31 L 24-8 @Oklahoma City (b2b)
1/2 W 25-8 Charlotte
1/4 W 26-8 Philadelphia
1/7 W 27-8 @Sacramento
1/8 W 28-8 Orlando (b2b)
1/11 W 29-8 Boston
1/15 W 30-8 Cleveland
1/17 L 30-9 @San Antonio
1/18 L 30-10 @Dallas (b2b)
1/20 L 30-11 @Houston
1/21 L 30-12 @Oklahoma City (b2b)
1/23 W 31-12 Denver
1/25 W 32-12 Minnesota
1/26 L 32-13 @Golden State (b2b)
1/28 W 33-13 Memphis
2/1 W 34-13 Toronto
2/3 W 35-13 @Washington
2/5 L 35-14 @New York
2/7 L 35-15 @Indiana
2/8 L 35-16 @Minnesota (b2b)
2/11 W 36-16 Oklahoma City
2/12 L 36-17 @LA Clippers (b2b)
2/19 W 37-17 San Antonio
2/21 W 38-17 Utah
2/23 W 39-17 Minnesota
2/25 L 39-18 @Denver
2/26 W 40-18 Brooklyn (b2b)
3/1 W 41-18 Denver
3/3 W 42-18 LA Lakers
3/5 W 43-18 Atlanta
3/7 L 43-19 @Dallas
3/9 L 43-20 @Houston
3/11 L 43-21 @Memphis
3/12 L 43-22 @San Antonio (b2b)
3/14 L 43-23 @New Orleans
3/16 W 44-23 Golden State
3/18 W 45-23 Milwaukee
3/20 W 46-23 Washington
3/22 W 47-23 @Charlotte
3/24 L 47-24 @MiAmI
3/25 W 48-24 @Orlando (b2b)
3/27 L 48-25 @Atlanta
3/28 L 48-26 @Chicago (b2b)
3/30 W 49-26 Memphis
4/1 W 50-26 @LA Lakers
4/4 W 51-26 Phoenix
4/6 W 52-26 New Orleans
4/9 W 53-26 Sacramento
4/11 W 54-26 @Utah
4/13 W 55-26 Golden State
4/16 W 56-26 LA Clippers

There are a few interesting things I noticed. First how easy our schedule is at the start of the season. This projection gives us a record of 22-4, which is an unreal 85% winning percentage and appears at first glance to be on pace to sniff the 72 win Bulls! But in reality by the end of the year we are only projected to win 56 games. Obviously 56-26 would be an amazing season, but last year this would only give us a share of the 5th seed in the west! It would have been a 3rd seed in the east however, and gives a team a great chance at home court advantage.

 

[magnifier661]

Awesome! When I get to a computer I will add mine.

It's insane that 56 wins only gives you a 5th seed?!

 

[Carlito]

Omg please stop... It's November

 

[Mediocre Man]

Awesome! When I get to a computer I will add mine.

It's insane that 56 wins only gives you a 5th seed?!

You understand that's not real, right?

 

[magnifier661]

You understand that's not real, right?

What's not real?

 

[Boob-No-More]

You understand that's not real, right?

Yeah, he only has us going 8-2 over the next 10 games. If we don't go at least 9-1 it will be a failure of monumental proportions.

BNM

 

[KingSpeed]

What's not real?

It's different every year.

 

[Draco]

Awesome! When I get to a computer I will add mine.

I attached my crappy crude excel file all you have to do is change the result in column I

 

[magnifier661]

I attached my crappy crude excel file all you have to do is change the result in column I

Thanks! When I get on the computer, I'll rep you too!

 

[Boise Blazer]

I attached my crappy crude excel file all you have to do is change the result in column I

Cool. Repped. Its not hard to see if they stay focused and/or improve on defensive how they can win over 50 games. And I was trying to do it as realistically pessimistic that I could.

 

[Strenuus]

Omg please stop... It's November

The opposite of this would be:

If the Blazers were doing bad, we could tell you it's just November. See, we can discredit you too!