Exclusive Purgatory

[e_blazer]

But I'm so confused....

You can just stop there.

 

[Boob-No-More]

The middle, Jan Brady, lukewarm.....there are many ways to describe where the Blazers currently are and few of those descriptions are good.

Portland is currently 8th in the WC standings but already 3 losses behind the Jazz in 7th place but also 3 games ahead of the Lakers in the loss column. At this rate, they will wind up in the Playoffs with plenty of room to spare but trailing the 7th place team by around 10 games. Now I don't expect the gap to be that large but you get where this is going unless there is a significant change in direction.

Currently, the Blazers are not close to being a threat to the upper level teams. After just 25 games, they are already 6 1/2 games out of having HCA. Last year they competed and pulled of an occasional upset here and there. It gave the fans hope that they could at least compete and were headed in the right direction with a young team.

Now, they are a year older, have added another ball-handler, have 2 rounds of Playoff experience under their belts (another discussion) and yet seemed to have regressed. Yes, I know they started off last season even worse than this season but they have certainly regressed from the level they were playing at last season in terms of competing, energy, defense etc.

Purgatory is the worst of NBA addresses. In the top level, you have a chance to at least compete for a Championship. On the bottom level, you may get lucky and build through the Draft like the Spurs, Thunder, Cavs or the Warriors. Yes, LeBron re-signed as a FA but he was drafted there along with Irving which are their 2 most dominant pieces and Wiggins allowed them to trade for Love.

Spurs - Robinson, Duncan, Parker, Ginobili - has lead to 2 decades of success.
OKC - Injuries killed playoff runs but Durant, Westbrook, Harden, Ibaka built a solid foundation.
Warriors - Curry, Thompson and Green are a dominant core.

So where is Portland? Games against the upper tier have been downright disheartening and the decline of the defense tells most fans that they are not anywhere near competing at that level anytime soon. Defense is what wins Championships and though Portland's guards can score, it is a very perimeter, unbalanced offense that has little chance of winning games in the long term. Offense can come and go but defense is a team mentality. Look at what Memphis is doing with a decimated roster....it is an attitude throughout the entire squad.

To continue to do the same thing over and over expecting a different result is the definition of insanity. Neil Olshey seemed to have put this roster together to gather and retain assets for a trade. This roster is horribly unbalanced in terms of front-court/back-court, offense/defense and lacks a significant degree of toughness and attitude. This roster reminds me so much of the 2010-2012 Warriors roster that had Curry, Ellis and not much else. Two very good scorers who didn't play defense, and were a threat to absolutely no one.

Mo Harkless made a comment after the Pacer-game meltdown that "we can't just try to outscore other teams." That has never been a recipe for success but that he stated it out loud almost seems like a call out to the 2 guys doing half of the shooting on many nights. Dame is the leader and CJ his sidekick but when neither of them play defense, the example to the rest of the team isn't a very good precedent. Then if they are asking the rest of the team to play defense while they score, that seems very out of balance as well.

If the coach is an offensive oriented coach and your two best players are your two of the worst defenders, it's no surprise that the team is going in the direction they are. Do you change the coach to someone more defensive oriented or do you change out one of those pieces for someone who doesn't score as well but impacts the game on a number of other levels much better.

It's a tough call when Dame/CJ are such good friends but that may almost be facilitating part of the problem. They are so tight, that they have become too similar in both the good and the bad and the 'bad' is creating havoc on the roster as a whole.

Dame is the leader Portland has wanted for a long time and CJ is like a brother but for both of them to excel at the next level, they either need to improve their games on the defensive end or perhaps need to separate for them both to be part of something better in the long run. The back-court is the first line of defense and that porous wall is causing havoc for the 'bigs' who then have to take on both the guards and their own men.

Can it be fixed? Or is Portland destined to be in purgatory for quite some time with a couple of really nice guys who can score, who fans love, who are great in the community but may never approach contender status?

It would seem that we as a fan base an a franchise should be aiming higher.

So, what's the answer? You hint at several things (tanking to get a lottery pick trading C.J., etc.), but never come right out a make a specific recommendation.

The problem with tanking as that as long as Damian Lillard is a Blazer and even anywhere close to his prime, we will never suck bad enough to get a top 3 pick. And these days, you seem to need multiple top 3 picks (or the ability to acquire top notch free agents) to become a contender. Look at PHI, look at MIN. How many top 3 picks have they both had and yet there they are, both 6-18. Is that what we should be aspiring to? Will either ever become a contender, or even make the playoffs, before their young high lottery picks get tired of losing and flee the sinking ship?

Hell, look at CLE. It took them getting THE best player drafted in the last 20 years (arguably, THE best since 1984), losing that player for 4 years, getting the No. 1 pick in 3 of those 4 years (plus two more top 4 picks) and getting back said great player for nothing to finally won a championship. Everyone remembers that because it's recent history, but what most people forget was CLE was in the lottery four years in a row before they got LeBron. He was their 5th lottery pick in a row, and they were still in the lottery again the year after they drafted him. So, it took them 6 lottery picks in a row including LeBron, before they even made the playoffs. And then he had to leave and they got 5 more top 4 picks while he was gone. Altogether CLE had 11 lottery picks between 1999 and 2014, including the ultimate prize in LeBron James, and it still took him leaving for 4 years and coming back, for them to finally win a title.

We're lucky. We got a top 3 talent in the 2012 draft while only having the 6th pick, and we didn't tank to get that pick, it was acquired via trade. Several of the players you use as examples of how to build a contender, were not lottery picks. Manu wasn't (57th pick). Tony Parker wasn't (28th pick). You didn't mention him, but Kawhi wasn't (15th pick acquired via trade). Draymond wasn't (35th pick). Is missing the playoffs to get the 13th or 14th pick going to help us any more than making the playoffs and getting the 15th or 16th pick? It seems like it would be losing for the sake of losing.

We also lucked out with C.J. He's averaging over 20 ppg for the second season in a row. There isn't a single player drafted ahead of him that's ever averaged 18 ppg once. We are blessed to have two 20ppg scores considering where we drafted. Even though they are defensive liabilities, you don't give that away unless you are getting someone better in return. If you give up C.J., you better be getting back another 20+ ppg scorer who also addresses another need (defense or rebounding). C.J. is young, still improving and locked up long term. You need to get something really special in return to give that up. Otherwise, you're just treading water - best case.

I had hoped we'd be able to land a 2-way front court payer over the summer. Someone who can be a legitimate 3rd scoring option, that also plays defense and rebounds. There were guys like that available (Horeford, Whiteside, etc.), but we stuck out. We still need to drastically upgrade BOTH the starting center and power forward positions. We probably won't get a 2-way stud at either of those positions. If not, we should look to get one defensive/rebounding stud to pair with a big time scorer.

And, as much as Mo Harkless has improved, I would look to upgrade the starting SF position if we can't get what we need at the 4 and 5. Mo has become an efficient scorer, but is still a weak rebounder and passer. He's still a long way from being a complete player. I'm not saying to shop him, but I wouldn't hesitate to move him if it was part of a package that addressed a bigger need (a stud center or power forward), or for a clear upgrade at his position.

I think the best strategy at this point is to keep our two best players, play to win and see what we can get via trade. There are a lot of teams underachieving and a lot of disgruntled players on those teams. Some of those teams may look to blow it up, and when they do, Neal needs to pounce. I know he's said in the past he's not a big fan of mid-season trades because they mess up team chemistry, but clearly what we have now isn't working. Our needs are glaring and obvious. In this case, all the chemistry in the world isn't going to make up for the talent deficit we have in our front court. Get whatever help you can get when you can get it.

BNM

 

[Mediocre Man]

Just wait til Aminu and Festus come back.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Just wait til Aminu and Festus come back.

Lol

 

[Drttimmy]

Regarding CJ and Dame, in the history of the game, I can't think of a championship contending team led by two smaller scoring guards that didn't play defense. If someone can recall, I'd love to hear it and maybe that particular team would be a template to emulate. As is, I think we'll be stuck in middling purgatory as long as they continue to be our two best players.

 

[TBpup]

Regarding CJ and Dame, in the history of the game, I can't think of a championship contending team led by two smaller scoring guards that didn't play defense. If someone can recall, I'd love to hear it and maybe that particular team would be a template to emulate. As is, I think we'll be stuck in middling purgatory as long as they continue to be our two best players.

Great point...I can't think of an example either. The closest I could come up with off the top of my head was the Pistons led by Thomas/Dumars. Both smallish, scoring guards but Dumars was one of the best defensive guards in the league and the Pistons had a legit low post threat in Aguirre/Edwards along with a Center who could consistently hit from the outside while playing physical defense.

Portland isn't close on many of those categories.

 

[illmatic99]

Regarding CJ and Dame, in the history of the game, I can't think of a championship contending team led by two smaller scoring guards that didn't play defense. If someone can recall, I'd love to hear it and maybe that particular team would be a template to emulate. As is, I think we'll be stuck in middling purgatory as long as they continue to be our two best players.

And until 2015, a primarily jump shooting team didn't win a title either. The game is changing. There's a greater emphasis on skill, shooting, and movement. Regardless of the other 3 players on the floor, we won't ever have worse than a top 10 offense when we have 48 mins of Dame and CJ. You don't just give up that advantage. Can't always look for a historical precedent when the whole paradigm is shifting.

The key is to fill the other 3 positions (and bench) in a way to address the backcourt's weakness.

 

[TBpup]

And until 2015, a primarily jump shooting team didn't win a title either. The game is changing. There's a greater emphasis on skill, shooting, and movement. Regardless of the other 3 players on the floor, we won't ever have than a top 10 offense when we have 48 mins of Dame and CJ. You don't just give up that advantage. Can't always look for a historical precedent when the whole paradigm is shifting.

The key is to fill the other 3 positions (and bench) in a way to address the backcourt's weakness.

I agree that the game is changing but the more it changes, the more it stays the same in some aspects. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson were 2 of the best in the league on defense at their positions. When the Cavs won last year, it was because they locked the Warriors down on defense especially in the last 6 minutes of the game 7 4th quarter.

Dame/CJ is an advantage but without much else, they are more like Ellis/Curry and that combo did nothing for the Warriors. It wasn't until they shipped off Ellis for a defensive center (Bogut) and got a defensive minded guard to team with Curry (Thompson) that they started getting better.

 

[chzbrgr]

Great point...I can't think of an example either. The closest I could come up with off the top of my head was the Pistons led by Thomas/Dumars. Both smallish, scoring guards but Dumars was one of the best defensive guards in the league and the Pistons had a legit low post threat in Aguirre/Edwards along with a Center who could consistently hit from the outside while playing physical defense.

Portland isn't close on many of those categories.

Dont forget they had young dennis rodman too that team was scary good.

 

[e_blazer]

I agree that the game is changing but the more it changes, the more it stays the same in some aspects. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson were 2 of the best in the league on defense at their positions. When the Cavs won last year, it was because they locked the Warriors down on defense especially in the last 6 minutes of the game 7 4th quarter.

Dame/CJ is an advantage but without much else, they are more like Ellis/Curry and that combo did nothing for the Warriors. It wasn't until they shipped off Ellis for a defensive center (Bogut) and got a defensive minded guard to team with Curry (Thompson) that they started getting better.

So make a trade for Bogut (Leonard plus pick?) and get Chief totally healthy, coupled with Harkless continuing to improve on D and you've got a pretty solid defensive 3 to backstop Dame and CJ. Realistically, that's about the most that can be accomplished until next summer, when CJ's PPP goes away and Olshey can weigh the long term viability of that backcourt pairing.