question about oden for all you that might know

[blazedanugz]

is there really no timetable you can put on patella tendinitas? i have no idea thats why im asking. cant they alteast be like "ok 2 months he should be ready to go" i guess they dont wanna put expectations on him but dang. One of my good friends who plays football for OSU told me hes had patella tendinitas for years and that it is really no big deal. he said most athletes suffer from it but never really miss time for it....so why is oden having such a problem with it?

 

[Rhal]

Like most tendinitis it varies by the person. Someone could have horrible bad Patella Tendinitis that keeps them from really moving their leg and it takes months to heal, others will heal in a few weeks. There is no way we can tell how bad it is and whats going on unless his doctor comes to this forum and tells us.

 

[hasoos]

Tendinitis is very unpredictable. You can just wake up one day and it's gone, or it could drag on for months.

 

[Jayps15]

This case of tendinitis also comes during the rehab of another injury to the knee, playing through the pain is one thing if your otherwise 100%, but if your already rehabbing the pain and inflammation will slow down the recovery process. That's probably what we're seeing now, Oden's timetable being uncertain because they're uncertain of how much longer the tendinitis has added on to his rehab from the broken patella.

 

[BGrantFan]

Depends on how the tendinitis originated. Or, in Oden's instance, it could both be acute tendonitis from the injury, or tendonitis as a result of overworking the knee in rehab. It can be both recurrent or chronic, or it can just go away, but that's rare if you keep stressing the tendon.

My tendonitis is recurrent. I know after a day skiing bumps that my knees, and my left knee in particular, is going to be very sore. I just hope that Greg's isn't chronic.

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

I think it is like a guys who keeps killing his car battery. You go by a 60 month battery and logic would say the next battery should be fine for a few years. But then it seems like every month your battery dies and you need to go get another one.

So you ask a valid question, what is the range of dates he should be ready to go, it should be anywhere from next week to a month from now at worst. But then nobody is going to say next week or a month because they're getting gun shy that something else might be happening.

It's like the guy that has the 60 month batteries only lasting only a month being asked by his wife how long he thinks the next will finally last and he doesn't really want to make committment because he doesn't know if he has a defective car, or if maybe he was just getting extrememly unlucky batteries from the shop. But we'll know for sure with this next 60 month battery, right?

 

[jlprk]

People talk too much about what we can't change. Here's what can be changed, the upcoming decision.

What's the maximum you would pay Oden in his next contract if you owned the team? Assume A) his health doesn't change and he continues playing 1/3 of the games, B) 2/3 of the games, C) all the games.

That's the big decision coming up. What's the maximum he's worth to the Blazers. If another team offers more, we let him go. How much.

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

People talk too much about what we can't change. Here's what can be changed, the upcoming decision.

What's the maximum you would pay Oden in his next contract if you owned the team? Assume A) his health doesn't change and he continues playing 1/3 of the games, B) 2/3 of the games, C) all the games.

That's the big decision coming up. What's the maximum he's worth to the Blazers. If another team offers more, we let him go. How much.

I know this has been hashed enough that it should be crystal clear in my mind, but call it a senior moment because I'm just not 100% confident I know the answer.

So I know we can agree to re-sign him early and go into the luxury tax if it exceeds the cap. But if he falls to free agency and is getting offers from teams, and Team A offers him a $7M/year contract, and we decide that we'll go ahead and offer him that same matching amount. Is it still a re-sign and we don't have to worry about cap? Or is it like signing a free agent at that point in time and if we don't re-sign him by some deadline, we'll have to remain under cap with whatever we offer him? Just couldn't remember with clarity.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I know this has been hashed enough that it should be crystal clear in my mind, but call it a senior moment because I'm just not 100% confident I know the answer.

So I know we can agree to re-sign him early and go into the luxury tax if it exceeds the cap. But if he falls to free agency and is getting offers from teams, and Team A offers him a $7M/year contract, and we decide that we'll go ahead and offer him that same matching amount. Is it still a re-sign and we don't have to worry about cap? Or is it like signing a free agent at that point in time and if we don't re-sign him by some deadline, we'll have to remain under cap with whatever we offer him? Just couldn't remember with clarity.

Teams with Bird rights can always chose to match an offer sheet regardless of what their current cap situation is (or would be by matching). It's an open question about what kind of matching rights or restricted free agency will exist under the next CBA ... Which Greg will be signed under.

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

Teams with Bird rights can always chose to match an offer sheet regardless of what their current cap situation is (or would be by matching). It's an open question about what kind of matching rights or restricted free agency will exist under the next CBA ... Which Greg will be signed under.

That's that what I was thinking (that the rights are still the rights and they stick with you until he has chosen to sign to another team).

So really the only issue with not re-signing him is allowing someone to overpay for him and then having to maybe pay more than we would have to if we just re-signed him to a smaller offer based on his lack of games over his first few seasons. So we might get a lucky lowball contract out of him now, as where we might be stuck signing him for like $7-8M/year if we allow someone willing to throw money at him push up his market value.

I'd still say with the richest owner and the Bird Rights likely not going away, I'd go ahead and just let him see what his value is and then match it with Paul Allen's cabbage. Might get lucky and nobody offers a big contract.

 

[jlprk]

I refined the question to eliminate two variable issues.

The scenario was--Oden plays a certain percentage of games from now till the new contract is signed, so we ASSUME he will continue that percentage throughout the next contract.

Here's the improved scenario, to decrease the guesswork.

Let's assume we KNOW the percentage of games he will play throughout his next contract. That's right, we have a TIME MACHINE and the number of games missed is CERTAIN.

You are still the owner, the person who pays. You are not the GM spending someone else's money.

So here's Oden Question 2.0.

What's the maximum you would pay Oden in his next contract if you owned the team, if you KNOW FROM A TIME MACHINE that throughout his next contract, A) his health won't change and he will DEFINITELY continue playing 1/3 of the games, B) 2/3 of the games, C) all the games.

And let's assume no change in the CBA. Having eliminated variables, try to hazard a guess!!

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

I refined the question to eliminate two variable issues.

The scenario was--Oden plays a certain percentage of games from now till the new contract is signed, so we ASSUME he will continue that percentage throughout the next contract.

Here's the improved scenario, to decrease the guesswork.

Let's assume we KNOW the percentage of games he will play throughout his next contract. That's right, we have a TIME MACHINE and the number of games missed is CERTAIN.

You are still the owner, the person who pays. You are not the GM spending someone else's money.

So here's Oden Question 2.0.

What's the maximum you would pay Oden in his next contract if you owned the team, if you KNOW FROM A TIME MACHINE that throughout his next contract, A) his health won't change and he will DEFINITELY continue playing 1/3 of the games, B) 2/3 of the games, C) all the games.

And let's assume no change in the CBA. Having eliminated variables, try to hazard a guess!!

Tough to say unless we get another "real" injury outside of his tendonitis that is just coming off of a previous tangible injury. So if he misses these first 15 games and comes in and maybe has some sore knee nights and only misses like 3-4 games of the remaining 65+ & the playoffs, then I think you gotta consider him healthy and ready to begin a fresh career of a 21 year old kid. And given his incredible numbers for someone that has had as little chance to get into the flow of a season, I'd say you give Dwight Howard money, and since that is above the max, then give him the max.

If he seems to still have "nagging" injuries that aren't another tangible item that puts him out for a long period of time, but more like just things that raise flags because he only ends up playing 50 games or so from having a wrist issue here and a shoulder issue there, etc. Then I think you're looking at someone like a Bynum type of guy who is all-star good when on the floor, but only good for 40-50 games a year. So you offer him $12M-13M type of Bynum money (assuming that is still under the max).

If he has any type of injury that is another set-back to his career and only plays your third scenario where he plays 25 games again and then is out for the season and the playoffs, then I say you have to look at just letting him fall to free agency and seeing what the market is. If it's $7M/year, then it's probably worth it to just throw Paul Allen's money and put some incentives in there and make sure it isn't some long-term 5-6 year deal that we're locked into forever. Make it like 2-3 years just in case he falls apart (with the promise to re-sign for big dollars in a couple years if he does take off).

Just my two cents.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Bynum is making about 10 million per year, not 12-13. Regardless, as for what I'd be willing to pay Oden I suspect his market value is all over the map around the league, but probably not in excess of 8 million for 3 years, or possibly 7 million for 4, given that you might not get anything more than a 40 games a year out of him in any given season (based on his track record).

I suspect that once the league resumes business after the lockout, we might be looking at unguranteed contracts or only partially guaranteed contracts which would take considerable pressure off of the Blazers or any other team ... my gut tells me that he ends up on a 3 year deal for about 8.5 million and yes, I think he will be retained by the Blazers ... to what end? I have no idea, but I suspect it won't end well.

 

[jlprk]

Summary of last 2 posts:

ESPN HOF says
C) Dwight Howard money--the max
B) Bynum money--$12M-13M
A) $7M for 2-3 years

Nikolokolus doesn't do the ABC options, and says
$8M for 3 years, or possibly $7M for 4
$8.5M for 3 years, if the new CBA allows partially guaranteed contracts. By the way, Bynum makes $10M.

 

[Jayps15]

Bynum is making about 10 million per year, not 12-13. Regardless, as for what I'd be willing to pay Oden I suspect his market value is all over the map around the league, but probably not in excess of 8 million for 3 years, or possibly 7 million for 4, given that you might not get anything more than a 40 games a year out of him in any given season (based on his track record).

I suspect that once the league resumes business after the lockout, we might be looking at unguranteed contracts or only partially guaranteed contracts which would take considerable pressure off of the Blazers or any other team ... my gut tells me that he ends up on a 3 year deal for about 8.5 million and yes, I think he will be retained by the Blazers ... to what end? I have no idea, but I suspect it won't end well.

Bynum is making 13.8mil this year, 15.1mil next year, and has a team option for 16.5mil the year after that.
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/la_lakers.htm

As to what Oden will get, if it's just a straight deal from the Blazers I'd expect something around 9mil per year for 3yrs with an option for a 4th. If he comes back and gets into the rhythm he was in before he went down last year or even close to it I think there's a few teams out there with capspace next yr that could throw some more his way. Teams pay out the ass for size in free agency.