Quick-and-dirty trade study of our PGs

[BrianFromWA]

This stemmed from the Miller v. Blake argument in the other thread...

Roy gets his minutes. But I can think of very few times where I wouldn't want either Batum or Webster on the court if both are healthy, so call that 42 or so minutes at the 3 taken away, coupled with the 6 or so that is Roy is going to get b/c we want a 3-guard lineup for some reason.

That leaves (IMHO) 144 (total at the 1/2/3) - (Roy's 30 at the 2) - (48 taken up by Roy/Batum/Webster) at the 3 = 66 minutes for Miller, Blake, Rudy, Bayless and Mills at the 1/2. NOW it's interesting.

For the sake of argument, let's ask this question under a potentially fallacious assumption that Webster starts (even if he only gets 20 minutes or so) at the 3, with Roy at the 2. Traits it seems we want in our PG (loosely prioritized: rank the players in order of best fit)

Defending other PGs/Perimeter Defense: Batum, Bayless, Blake, Miller
3pt shooting : Blake, Batum, Bayless, Miller
Court vision/getting easy buckets for others: Miller, Batum, Blake, Bayless
(Lack of) Turnovers: Blake, Miller, Batum?, Bayless?
Pure Scoring Ability: Miller, Bayless, Batum, Blake
Drawing fouls: Bayless, Miller, Batum, Blake

(did I miss anything?)

I weight the top two much heavier than the rest. B/c of that, the quick conclusion is that if it came down to a death match of who plays PG, I'd probably go with Batum over any of the other three, assuming his skills while playing with Euro teammates translates to the NBA (which, to be fair, is a big assumption). But even if he's a homeless man's Scottie Pippen, is that better for us at PG than Blake or Miller? (Rudy/Bayless will probably excel as the third/4th guard)

Having Batum/Roy/Webster as the 1/2/3 is a decent amount of firepower, long-range shooting, and hellacious defense. And I don't know that I've ever seen Batum or Webster very tired...they're both in good enough shape to play monster D and then hit an open three. If energy becomes a problem, Dante's shown he can pop in for a few minutes at the 3 and be scrappily effective. If the shooting's off, sub in Bayless or Rudy for Batum or Webster.

This whole "Miller vs. Blake and maybe vs. Bayless---oh wait, maybe Mills too" PG soap opera I think has shown that we have a lot of "mediocre" at the PG, and maybe with the talent KP's given us that we should look a little outside of the box for the best lineup based on skillset and effectiveness, not just start the most-capable-at-the-time short guy on the team.

 

[andalusian]

Court vision/getting easy buckets for others: Miller, Batum, Blake, Bayless

I think it's awfully early to think Batum is better than Blake/Bayless in this regard. I would also want to say that I am not sure Blake is better than JB in this regard. JB's AST% is better than Blake's this year.

(Lack of) Turnovers: Blake, Miller, Batum?, Bayless?

Again - hard to say what Batum does against NBA level ball handling pressure. Also - the idea that Bayless is the worst of the lot is not true, so far, this year. Bayless's TOV% is a very low 10.5 this year. That's better than Blake and much better than Miller (who have been a high-TOV kind of guy for most of his career).

Pure Scoring Ability: Miller, Bayless, Batum, Blake

At this stage of his career, do you really think Miller is a better pure scorer than JB? Based on what we saw last year - sure. This year, so far - is open for debate.

 

[hasoos]

You sure make a lot of assumptions in your list. It is hardly valid. Batum as a playmaker from what I had seen from him so far in his NBA career is a reach at best. So far he tends to be more of a "You threw me a flaming bag and I am going to pass it to the next guy in the ball movement rotation as fast as possible so I don't have to hold it anymore.".

 

[BrianFromWA]

Of course I make a lot of assumptions, b/c there isn't an adamant ranking of each. If you have a better one, do what Andalusian did and voice that. But they're based on observation. For instance, I've watched Batum since 2007 EuroLeague and he's always been a scorer/facilitator--even as a 18 y/o. You're extrapolating his rookie play (<20mpg of being the 5th option and told to shoot open 3's or pass it) vs. my extrapolation of what he can do when asked to do more (like playing facilitator for 2 years in LeMans and PG in major international competitions).

Regardless, are you going to put forth an opinion on this?

I weight the top two much heavier than the rest. B/c of that, the quick conclusion is that if it came down to a death match of who plays PG, I'd probably go with Batum over any of the other three, assuming his skills while playing with Euro teammates translates to the NBA (which, to be fair, is a big assumption). But even if he's a homeless man's Scottie Pippen, is that better for us at PG than Blake or Miller? (Rudy/Bayless will probably excel as the third/4th guard)

or just snipe about "hardly valid assumptions?"

 

[Crimson the Cat]

BfW - Interesting ideas/conclusions.

On offense every position should compliment Roy. Blake, Batum and Aldridge did this remarkably well last year, until we got to the Playoffs and Roy was covered like an East Coast blizzard. We found that our other perimeter guys weren't capable or ready yet to break down an offense on their own, when Roy is shown so much attention. Batum will come along in this area. Webster is already more improved at this. Fernandez is another guy we should be considering, and also will likely improve at creating for himself. Blake just can't do this as well as the others.

Bayless is already better at getting to the rim, making space to get his own shots. At this point, I'm more excited about partnering Brandon with Bayless for this reason.

Defensively, you have to include Batum in any starting line up IMO. Nic can cover the best perimeter offender, moving Brandon and Jerryd to cover the other two.

For me, it's Bayless, Roy, and Batum. Rudy and Webster off the bench with Rudy getting the bulk of reserve minutes.

 

[MARIS61]

This stemmed from the Miller v. Blake argument in the other thread...

Roy gets his minutes. But I can think of very few times where I wouldn't want either Batum or Webster on the court if both are healthy, so call that 42 or so minutes at the 3 taken away, coupled with the 6 or so that is Roy is going to get b/c we want a 3-guard lineup for some reason.

That leaves (IMHO) 144 (total at the 1/2/3) - (Roy's 30 at the 2) - (48 taken up by Roy/Batum/Webster) at the 3 = 66 minutes for Miller, Blake, Rudy, Bayless and Mills at the 1/2. NOW it's interesting.

For the sake of argument, let's ask this question under a potentially fallacious assumption that Webster starts (even if he only gets 20 minutes or so) at the 3, with Roy at the 2. Traits it seems we want in our PG (loosely prioritized: rank the players in order of best fit)

Defending other PGs/Perimeter Defense: Batum, Bayless, Blake, Miller
3pt shooting : Blake, Batum, Bayless, Miller
Court vision/getting easy buckets for others: Miller, Batum, Blake, Bayless
(Lack of) Turnovers: Blake, Miller, Batum?, Bayless?
Pure Scoring Ability: Miller, Bayless, Batum, Blake
Drawing fouls: Bayless, Miller, Batum, Blake

(did I miss anything?)

Yes, you missed age and attitude.

Miller is dead last in both and therefore the obvious piece to move.