ROY: Oden or Beasley

[Denny Crane]

We touched on this in the T/F thread.

Seems like Beasley is a beast and my Bulls may well regret passing on him. I see the ROY race coming down to Oden and Beasley, barring some other draftee, Mayo or Rose perhaps, being a significant impact player right away.

If Beasley is a high teens or 20 PPG scorer with 9+ rebounds per game, what is it going to take for Oden to win the award?

 

[Nikolokolus]

If Be-easy throws up 20 and 10 as a rookie then I don't think Oden can do anything that will get him the ROY; Greg's primary impact is going to be on the defensive end and his stats are probably going to be something like 12 points 10 boards and maybe 2 to 2.5 blocks per game. Voters seem to be enamored with the scoring stat and I think the Al Horford vs. Kevin Durant ROY debate demonstrates that.

The only thing I can see holding Beasley back is his attitude and the fact that he seems to already have a problem making good decisions, old-school voters seem to take that into consideration.

 

[Minstrel]

If Beasley is a high teens or 20 PPG scorer with 9+ rebounds per game, what is it going to take for Oden to win the award?

Similar points and rebounds. Voters seem to respond most to PPG/RPG/APG. Playing a dynamic type of game that generates lots of highlights helps. But if they're similar in those statistics, Oden's name recognition and defense, especially if it leads to an impressive number of blocked shots, should give him the award.

 

[Denny Crane]

Maybe if the Blazers go deep in the playoffs and Oden is a big part of it, he gets more brownie points? Miami is hugely challenged at the C spot and is banking on Chalmers at PG; I do see them improving, but not that much. Or it could be that Beasley plays well and the team wins 30 more games than last season, which would make him a slam dunk, IMO.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

My guess is OJ Mayo. I think he is being somewhat underrated by people on his chances next season.

For Oden to win it, Portland has to be amazing and he needs to average at least a double double a game with a few blocks a game. Maybe 17 ppg, 10 rpg and 2.8 bpg could do it

 

[Minstrel]

My guess is OJ Mayo. I think he is being somewhat underrated by people on his chances next season.

I like Mayo, but I think his college season wasn't brilliant enough to suggest that he'll have bigger seasons than Beasley, Oden or Rose. I think Mayo is closer to the Bayless/Fernandez tier.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

I like Mayo, but I think his college season wasn't brilliant enough to suggest that he'll have bigger seasons than Beasley, Oden or Rose. I think Mayo is closer to the Bayless/Fernandez tier.

Didn't Kobe say Mayo looked like a stud against the USA Team? Rose is going to take awhile to be good. I don't expect much from him next season.

 

[Denny Crane]

I like Mayo, but I think his college season wasn't brilliant enough to suggest that he'll have bigger seasons than Beasley, Oden or Rose. I think Mayo is closer to the Bayless/Fernandez tier.

A lot of people say Mayo sleepwalked his way through his required freshman year in college, not wanting to risk an injury before getting his NBA contract. He was super hyped in high school.

 

[Minstrel]

A lot of people say Mayo sleepwalked his way through his required freshman year in college, not wanting to risk an injury before getting his NBA contract. He was super hyped in high school.

Yeah, but that sounds like excuse-making to me, really. I don't believe playing worse is something that limits injuries. "Sleep-walking" sounds like more of an invitation to make a mistake and end up vulnerable. An unimpressive college year cost him a lot of draft position, which means millions of dollars on his first contract. I think he played his best, but simply had a so-so year.

Sebastian Telfair was also extremely hyped as a high schooler. Mayo is better, I believe, but not as good as his hype. And I'm far from a "hater" of Mayo...I had him as the third-best talent in the draft, after Beasley and Rose.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

http://willhicks.wordpress.com/2008/07/30/kobe-bryant-is-a-fan-of-oj-mayo/

I remembered right, Kobe thinks the world of him

 

[Natebishop3]

I think Oden has a better chance of being an All-Star this season. People love him.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

I think Oden has a better chance of being an All-Star this season. People love him.

He has the whole country of China voting against him, no way he gets voted in.

 

[Natebishop3]

He has the whole country of China voting against him, no way he gets voted in.

That's a misnomer. I got into a debate about that very subject a few months ago. Go look up Yao's numbers, he was outvoted by at least six other players in the NBA (including Dwight Howard). It wasn't like he had 1billion votes. It was more around the 200k mark.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

That's a misnomer. I got into a debate about that very subject a few months ago. Go look up Yao's numbers, he was outvoted by at least six other players in the NBA (including Dwight Howard). It wasn't like he had 1billion votes. It was more around the 200k mark.

Either way I don't see him getting voted in over Yao or the people who still ride Shaq's jock

 

[Natebishop3]

Either way I don't see him getting voted in over Yao or the people who still ride Shaq's jock

Ok, so I went back and looked. My memory was bad about the numbers, but I was right about the standings. Yao only got 1,709,180 votes. Dwight Howard got 2,108,831.

Out of the two starting fives, LeBron James, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, and Carmello Anthony all had more votes than Yao Ming. The only players who were behind Yao were Jason Kidd, Dwyane Wade, and Allen Iverson.

Oden is really well liked around the country. People love the guy. I could totally see him getting voted in like Tim Duncan in his rookie season and Grant Hill in his first year. He has to play well, and the Blazers probably have to win, but I could see it happening.

 

[Magnum]

I think the best chance Oden has to be ROY is for Portland to come out blazing hot and ride to a top 4 or 5 seed out west. The perceived improvement of the team from last year to this would be largely attributed to Oden's arrival, even if it was actually due to a combination of Roy/Aldridge improvement and the additions of Rudy/Bayless/Oden.

But I said this before, PPG is the most important stat, even if you shoot 39% getting there. Beasley should handle a lot of the scoring load inside for MIA and that will give him a big advantage.

 

[Natebishop3]

I think the best chance Oden has to be ROY is for Portland to come out blazing hot and ride to a top 4 or 5 seed out west. The perceived improvement of the team from last year to this would be largely attributed to Oden's arrival, even if it was actually due to a combination of Roy/Aldridge improvement and the additions of Rudy/Bayless/Oden.

But I said this before, PPG is the most important stat, even if you shoot 39% getting there. Beasley should handle a lot of the scoring load inside for MIA and that will give him a big advantage.

Yeah, but Wade is still the workhorse for that team. I don't think Beasley would come in and take over as the first option.

 

[THE HCP]

Greg will not have the HUGE #'s that Beasley possibly will have. If him being on the court has an effect on the game like I hope it does, maybe the voters will recognize that and award the BEST player, not the player with the BEST #'s.

 

[La Bomba]

Neither it will be Mayo, but if I have to vote for one of these I'd say Beasley.

 

[wastro]

I don't think Greg will win ROY. He'll have too much trouble getting back into game shape and staying out of foul trouble.

I don't think Beasley will put up 20/10 or something similar, either. Those are All-Star numbers, and I don't think he'll be an All-Star right out of the gate.

 

[SheedSoNasty]

As good as Beasley may be, I don't see him putting up those kinds of numbers with Wade and Marion commanding so much of the load. Granted that their talent level is pretty shallow after that, averaging a double double like that is very uncommon for a rookie as young as Beasley.

 

[Ed O]

As good as Beasley may be, I don't see him putting up those kinds of numbers with Wade and Marion commanding so much of the load.

Yes. If the Heat can keep those two healthy AND if they can avoid going tits-up in terms of record early in the year (therefore keeping the veterans interested) I don't know that Beasely is going to have a very big chance at 20ppg.

Ed O.

 

[Denny Crane]

Yes. If the Heat can keep those two healthy AND if they can avoid going tits-up in terms of record early in the year (therefore keeping the veterans interested) I don't know that Beasely is going to have a very big chance at 20ppg.

Ed O.

The Wizards had at least two seasons where their big 3 were healthy and all three scored 20 PPG or close to it, even with Arenas challenging for the scoring title. I think it's possible for Beasley if he wows people right off the bat in the regular season.

 

[Natebishop3]

The Wizards had at least two seasons where their big 3 were healthy and all three scored 20 PPG or close to it, even with Arenas challenging for the scoring title. I think it's possible for Beasley if he wows people right off the bat in the regular season.

Yeah, but those guys were all vets. I could see Marion and Wade going for 20, but not Beasley. I didn't watch much Beasley at K state, was he a volume shooter?

 

[Denny Crane]

Yeah, but those guys were all vets. I could see Marion and Wade going for 20, but not Beasley. I didn't watch much Beasley at K state, was he a volume shooter?

Roughly 26.5 PPG on 17.5 FGA. An NBA team gets about 85 FGA/game. A player needs about 15 FGA to average 20 PPG. Leaves 70 FGA for Arenas (say 20-25) and Marion (another 20-25) - those 20/25 numbers are way up there. Still leaves 20 FGA for... Haslim? Who else do they have?

That's my figuring on it.

 

[Ed O]

The Wizards had at least two seasons where their big 3 were healthy and all three scored 20 PPG or close to it, even with Arenas challenging for the scoring title. I think it's possible for Beasley if he wows people right off the bat in the regular season.

I don't see the Heat having the pace to support three volume scorers.

The Wizards had a low pace this year, but they have been in the top seven the last other couple of years, and without Arenas's injury where he missed almost all year AND Butler's, where he missed a third of the season, I doubt they are able to get so close to 20 ppg with such a low pace.

Last year the Heat had a similarly low pace, and I don't think Spoelstra is going to unleash the hounds, either.

Ed O.

 

[Natebishop3]

Roughly 26.5 PPG on 17.5 FGA. An NBA team gets about 85 FGA/game. A player needs about 15 FGA to average 20 PPG. Leaves 70 FGA for Arenas (say 20-25) and Marion (another 20-25) - those 20/25 numbers are way up there. Still leaves 20 FGA for... Haslim? Who else do they have?

That's my figuring on it.

Yeah, but you're leaving off bench players. I don't know enough about the Heat to really talk about their offense, but I'd figure Wade gets at least 20, Marion maybe 15-20. I could see it as being possible for Beasley to get 20 a game, but I still think it's highly unlikely.

 

[Denny Crane]

I don't see the Heat having the pace to support three volume scorers.

The Wizards had a low pace this year, but they have been in the top seven the last other couple of years, and without Arenas's injury where he missed almost all year AND Butler's, where he missed a third of the season, I doubt they are able to get so close to 20 ppg with such a low pace.

Last year the Heat had a similarly low pace, and I don't think Spoelstra is going to unleash the hounds, either.

Ed O.

How many games did Wade miss? Who else was there to create offense quickly?

 

[Denny Crane]

BTW, Wade took 18 FGA last season in his 51 games, and Marion took about 13 per game. Miami took 77 FGA/game as a team last season.

 

[Ed O]

How many games did Wade miss? Who else was there to create offense quickly?

Bad teams can generate more possessions even without superstars.

Looking at the Heat pace from the past several years, it looks like a systematic issue, not one of personnel (and note: Nate and the Blazers, unfortunately, have been in the same boat);

2007-08: 90.2 pace (22nd of 30 teams)
2006-07: 89.9 pace (25th of 30 teams)
2005-06: 91.6 pace (11th of 30 teams)

They still had some Van Gundy in them, IMO, and SVG had them 14th the year before.

I guess we'll see. It's not IMPOSSIBLE that the Heat will be more uptempo than they have been the last couple of years, or even that if they're slow that all three guys could get 20ppg (or close to it) while healthy. I just don't find it to be as likely as if Beasely were on, say, the Grizzlies or the Pacers.

Ed O.