ROY: Oden or Beasley

[Denny Crane]

Bad teams can generate more possessions even without superstars.

Looking at the Heat pace from the past several years, it looks like a systematic issue, not one of personnel (and note: Nate and the Blazers, unfortunately, have been in the same boat);

2007-08: 90.2 pace (22nd of 30 teams)
2006-07: 89.9 pace (25th of 30 teams)
2005-06: 91.6 pace (11th of 30 teams)

They still had some Van Gundy in them, IMO, and SVG had them 14th the year before.

I guess we'll see. It's not IMPOSSIBLE that the Heat will be more uptempo than they have been the last couple of years, or even that if they're slow that all three guys could get 20ppg (or close to it) while healthy. I just don't find it to be as likely as if Beasely were on, say, the Grizzlies or the Pacers.

Ed O.

Even at the same pace, there's plenty of shots for Beasley. Last season at 77 FGA, Ricky Davis manages 12 FGA - all his shots would probably go to Beasley. Unless he shoots some horrible percentage, he could get his 20/game with just 3 more FGA from somewhere.

Also, the Heat's pace has been slow because they had Shaq, and they liked to run the shot clock down to keep games close. Shaq's gone, no need to wait for him to lumber up the court and get set up in the post.

 

[tlongII]

55 wins for the Blazers this season and the ROY will belong to Oden.

 

[Ed O]

Even at the same pace, there's plenty of shots for Beasley. Last season at 77 FGA, Ricky Davis manages 12 FGA - all his shots would probably go to Beasley. Unless he shoots some horrible percentage, he could get his 20/game with just 3 more FGA from somewhere.

Wade missed 31 games. Shaq+Marion only played in 49, combined.

While Ricky Davis got 12 FGAs, he also played in many games where he was the first offensive option because both Shaq/Marion and Wade were unavailable.

In the situation that I am discussing--no major injuries to Wade or Marion and the team is contending for a playoff spot--I am not convinced that there will be room for Beasely to get that many shots.

Also, the Heat's pace has been slow because they had Shaq, and they liked to run the shot clock down to keep games close. Shaq's gone, no need to wait for him to lumber up the court and get set up in the post.

Riley hasn't had many up-tempo teams since leaving LA, and Spoelstra only has worked for East coast Riley.

Some coaches are just predisposed to slowing the game down (see: Nate McMillan) irrespective of personnel and I would be surprised if Spoelstra is NOT like this, given his reportedly similar-to-Riley philosophy.

We'll see.

Ed O.

 

[Denny Crane]

Take a look at their roster and divvy up the 77 shots per game. Interesting exercise.

 

[elcap15]

I think it will be Mayo. ROY is all about ppg for some reason, and Oden just wont get that many touches. I dont think Beasley will either with Wade and Marion taking up so many shots.

 

[elcap15]

Wade missed 31 games. Shaq+Marion only played in 49, combined.

While Ricky Davis got 12 FGAs, he also played in many games where he was the first offensive option because both Shaq/Marion and Wade were unavailable.

In the situation that I am discussing--no major injuries to Wade or Marion and the team is contending for a playoff spot--I am not convinced that there will be room for Beasely to get that many shots.


Ed O.

While you make good points, I dont think you can look at anything the Heat did last year as indicitive of this year.

 

[Natebishop3]

While you make good points, I dont think you can look at anything the Heat did last year as indicitive of this year.

True, but the Heat didn't have Wade last year and Wade is the focal point of that offense. Rarely do you see a third option average 20+ points... The Bucks did it with Cassell, Ray Allen, and Glenn Robinson, I think.

 

[SheedSoNasty]

True, but the Heat didn't have Wade last year and Wade is the focal point of that offense. Rarely do you see a third option average 20+ points... The Bucks did it with Cassell, Ray Allen, and Glenn Robinson, I think.

Didn't the Wiz do it with Arenas, Jamison, and Hughes not long ago? They were close anyway.

 

[DennisRodman]

Marion, Nash, Amare couldn't have been too far off.