Run differential

[Hammerojustice]

OK, I know run differential isn't the best stat in the world. Case in point, the A's are 9 games below .500 and yet have a +44 and to a lesser extent, the Blue Jays are 1 game below .500 and have a +82...

But look at the Phillies... Yes, they are 33 games below .500, but they're -160 in run differential... next worse are the White Sox who are 4 games below .500 and have a -73 run differential...

The only team better than the Blue Jays are the St. Louis Cardinals who have a +91 run differential while 23 games over .500...

 

[yankeesince59]

...Phillies are where they're at because they're a bad team...they're last in the NL in batting...last in pitching...and next to last in fielding.

...the A's on the other hand have lost a ton of 1 run games (21 losses) and did not win their first extra inning game of the year until last week vs the Yanx.

 

[Messiah717]

The Phillies went for broke with all the big money pitchers and it clearly didn't work out. Now it's a massive rebuild. They need to get Howard and Utley who can't stay healthy out of there.

 

[Hammerojustice]

The Phillies went for broke with all the big money pitchers and it clearly didn't work out. Now it's a massive rebuild. They need to get Howard and Utley who can't stay healthy out of there.

Maybe, but I'm loving seeing them like this being that I live in the market and always get blasted for being a Yankees fan...

 

[yankeesince59]

Maybe, but I'm loving seeing them like this being that I live in the market and always get blasted for being a Yankees fan...

...lol...Phillies fans have not been in a position to blast Yanx fans for quite awhile now....f' 'em.

 

[blgridesagain]

Here's how I very recently addressed run differential to someone who was beating their chest over the A's having an excellent plus run differential while being in last place.

✴

I happen to be one of those who recognize and see the connection of having a plus run differential and being a GOOD team.
How "good"? Let's pick some cherries...take a look around, how many teams are there in first place with a minus run diff? The year before? The year before?

Let's use a nice round number for starters, the past 10 seasons.
Not a single team in that period played in the WS with a minus reg season run diff.
Only TWICE (past 10 seasons) has a ML team with a minus reg season run differential finished in first place. That's 2 out of 60 teams if you're keeping count.

Only ONCE in the past 10 years has a team (2006 Rockies) finished in last place with a plus run differential, by one run.
That's ONE out of 60 teams if you're keeping count.


Yes, I recall past discussions on this subject and historical teams were also brought up such as the 1969 "Amazing Mets" who happened to have a plus 91 run differential.
And the 1960 Pirates who upset the Yanks - actually having a better run differential than those Yankees.

I know you couldn't actually believe you were debunking this compelling evidence regarding final regular season plus/minus run differentials by mentioning this current A's team.

Nobody ever said there were guarantees....plenty of games played by plenty of teams through many years but as far as being a first place team...and especially a WS team...the percentages are tremendously favorable for teams with PLUS RUN DIFFERENTIALS.

Same goes for the OTHER way down through the years.... if a team finishes in last place, chances are great they also finished with a negative run differential.

These A's happen to be a huge flukey abberation..... You'll be hard pressed finding teams throughout the years who finish in last place and/or 8-9 games under .500 with +50 run differential.

Talk about CHERRY PICKING ?
Bringing up these A's in the face of obvious past and present overwhelming numbers is one heck of a cherry pick.


✴
And may I add on a side note....the A's have NOT quite yet finished in last place and it will be interesting to see if they finish in last place and/or 8-10 under .500 while also finishing with a +run differential of 40-50.....and if they do, it may be one of the biggest freaky quirks in a long time regarding this particular team stat.


And now the magic question - how many teams have BEEN to a WS in the past 25 -30 years with a negative run differential? A very very rare animal.

The point is....having a plus run differential is the product (generally with good odds) of having a good W-L record, and an excellent +run differential is the result of finishing with a very good W-L record.
It goes with the territory on a tremendously successful rate.

Enjoy the cherries.

 

[Hammerojustice]

I'm being accused of picking cherries???? Seriously???

I put the two worst & the one best.... It's a crappy stat & was more amazed at how bad the phillies are...

2nd place in the AL East are the Rays who are 1 game over .500 at -9 (behind the Yankees at +26)... 3rd place are the .500 Orioles @ +39... The 4th place Jays are 1 below .500 & are +82, & the last place Sox @ 5 games below .500 are -43... To summarize, 2nd thru 4th (1 above, even, & 1 below .500) are -9, +39, & +82... How are these a quality stat???

Yeah, it's a worthless stat... I'll stand by my statement it's a worthless stat... And I would think the king of cherry-picking would know what cherry-picking looked like...

If you pick a fight with me, I'll add you to my ignore list like half the posters on here already have done for you... You'll then be posting & commenting to yourself...

 

[totus44]

Ah the sweet sweet sound of silence.....

 

[Mattingly23NY]

the one guy I feel for over the Phillies debacle is/was Ryne Sandberg......

A class act, who could not of done much with a band of mis-fits, less one or two players............sad, hope Ryne gets a call from another Team. MLB can use guys like Rhino and Molitor, Mattingly Too, as well As Joe G. The new generation of what will become damn fine Mgrs, after working out a kink here or there..........

 

[Hammerojustice]

the one guy I feel for over the Phillies debacle is/was Ryne Sandberg......

A class act, who could not of done much with a band of mis-fits, less one or two players............sad, hope Ryne gets a call from another Team. MLB can use guys like Rhino and Molitor, Mattingly Too, as well As Joe G. The new generation of what will become damn fine Mgrs, after working out a kink here or there..........

Agreed

 

[Hammerojustice]

Ah the sweet sweet sound of silence.....

It is indeed sweet sweet sweet

 

[blgridesagain]

I'm being accused of picking cherries???? Seriously???

I put the two worst & the one best.... It's a crappy stat & was more amazed at how bad the phillies are...

2nd place in the AL East are the Rays who are 1 game over .500 at -9 (behind the Yankees at +26)... 3rd place are the .500 Orioles @ +39... The 4th place Jays are 1 below .500 & are +82, & the last place Sox @ 5 games below .500 are -43... To summarize, 2nd thru 4th (1 above, even, & 1 below .500) are -9, +39, & +82... How are these a quality stat???

Yeah, it's a worthless stat... I'll stand by my statement it's a worthless stat... And I would think the king of cherry-picking would know what cherry-picking looked like...

If you pick a fight with me, I'll add you to my ignore list like half the posters on here already have done for you... You'll then be posting & commenting to yourself...

Hammer, for crissakes, I wasn't referring to you and trust me, I can prove you were NOT the "somebody" when I said--- I "very recently addressed" somebody regarding run differential. It was from another thread REGARDING team's run differentials which is relevant to YOUR first post of this thread.
Let's leave it at that.....I choose not to single out an individual in that previous post just as THAT person decently chose not to single out an individual.

However, if you really think it's a "worthless" team stat/number....then why don't you prove it with the percentages present and past stats/numbers noting "all" first place teams finishing with a MINUS run differential - and please don't forget to list ALL the teams which have appeared in a WS over the past 20-30 years without a POSITIVE run differential.

Nobody ever said it's IMPOSSIBLE for a team to finish in first place and/or play in the WS with a negative run differential.
But I'm not backing off one little bit on the MAIN point.

I already know the run differential "numbers" regarding first place teams AND especially WS teams over the last 20-30 years.

Do you really want to know how meaningless and inconsequential run differential really is when it involves FIRST place teams and WS teams?
Or maybe it's a huge ongoing coincidence? Lol

Of course Teams play to win first...they don't go out there trying to intentionally add onto their run diff- but -- if they do WIN on a good consistent basis more often than the rest of their division competitors in the final standings - their run diff should reflect a POSITIVE number the very vast majority of the time as opposed to having a negative run diff - End of story.

And as far as being on ignore lists....lol.....that's their choice to bury their heads in the sand. I feel quite confident if there were/is some type of impartial panel reviewing and following various exchanges and thoughts on this board, I would be in solid standing.


Here ya go.....room for more.

 

[yankeesince59]

Ah the sweet sweet sound of silence.....

...wait for it.