Second half collapse?

[Rastapopoulos]

Last year the Blazers were in the playoff hunt for the first half of the season and then the bottom fell out. Will it happen again? Last year it was partly because of injuries, and while we don't know that that will happen again, we have been ridiculously lucky with health in the first half.

Why should the seasons mirror each other? Well, it wouldn't be the first time that a particular coach's teams have remarkably similar seasons. I remember that Dunleavy's teams used to struggle in the second half but then perform much better in the playoffs. Meanwhile Carlesimo's teams did the exact opposite: they would become winning juggernauts towards the end of the regular season but then fizzle completely in the playoffs. And Stotts's complete reluctance to develop players on the bench would be likely to bite him in the ass when injuries finally catch up.

Compare with Poppovich: Pops is much more willing to give comparative scrubs a chance. His strategy of holding starters out of games entirely even when they're not injured also lets the bench players know that this game is theirs, and they're not going to get pulled for stupid mistakes. Y'know, like CJ was last night.

Still, if somebody had to kick our arses, it couldn't be a nicer guy than Patty Mills.

 

[Mediocre Man]

As of this post. Portland's bench is still rail thin. The team has benefited from an extremely healthy roster and a easier than not schedule.

Collapse probably isn't the right word, but pronounced limp might work. If the team does nothing today to address their front court depth, I think they will be a quick out in the playoffs.

 

[Schilly]

Our top 4 players are in the top 16 in the league for minutes played, last year was similar. If each of those 4 just got 2 extra minutes of rest half it would make a dramatic difference on the 2nd half of the season. I suspect our 1st half would be far more disappointing though. End result probably is a push until our reserves develop a bit more and we add one more solid reserve.

Sent from my LG-LS995 using Tapatalk

 

[Kaydow]

As of this post. Portland's bench is still rail thin. The team has benefited from an extremely healthy roster and a easier than not schedule.

Collapse probably isn't the right word, but pronounced limp might work. If the team does nothing today to address their front court depth, I think they will be a quick out in the playoffs.

At this point I hope we MAKE the playoffs. Only 4-1/2 games up on #8 Seeed Dallas. If we don't win the majority of these next 7 games vs. softer opponents, the (2) rediculously tough 5-Game road trips in March could make things extremely stressful real fast. Not making post season would be an epic collapse. Everybody knows the West is loaded, but we were 31-9 and a virtual playoff "lock". I don't care about HCA anymore. Just get in.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

At this point I hope we MAKE the playoffs. Only 4-1/2 games up on #8 Seeed Dallas. If we don't win the majority of these next 7 games vs. softer opponents, the (2) rediculously tough 5-Game road trips in March could make things extremely stressful real fast. Not making post season would be an epic collapse. Everybody knows the West is loaded, but we were 31-9 and a virtual playoff "lock". I don't care about HCA anymore. Just get in.

Feel the same way . . .

 

[Schilly]

5.5 up on #9.

 

[TBpup]

I don't think they drop out of the playoffs but if they somehow did, it is a looong way to fall all the way to bottom 12 in the league. Otherwise, they would not make the playoffs and also not have a 1st round pick as it is not lotto protected but only top-12. I don't think they are in danger of not making the playoffs but it does seem they may waste that great start they had and be somewhere in the #6-8 range.

Ironically, that is where many of us predicted they would be from the start but after a 24-4 start, you would expect them to be higher than that. Perhaps not...

 

[Kaydow]

Of the 9 Western Conf. teams vying for 8 spots, we are the only team with a losing record in their last 10 games (3-7). Golden St. & the Clippers are 6-4, and everybody else is 7-3 or better. We know Memphis, on the outside looking in right now, is finally healthy and playing some of the best basketball of any team in the whole league right now (15-4 in last 19 games). And PHO, GS, & Dallas all look very solid right now. Would it really be that surprising if we missed the post season at this point? Next 7 games all against losing teams, & 6 of them are at home. If everybody is healthy, I'd say 6-1 or 5-2 easy. With a depleted front court? HOPING for 5-2.

 

[blue9]

I don't think they drop out of the playoffs but if they somehow did, it is a looong way to fall all the way to bottom 12 in the league. Otherwise, they would not make the playoffs and also not have a 1st round pick as it is not lotto protected but only top-12. I don't think they are in danger of not making the playoffs but it does seem they may waste that great start they had and be somewhere in the #6-8 range.

Ironically, that is where many of us predicted they would be from the start but after a 24-4 start, you would expect them to be higher than that. Perhaps not...

Thanks for posting this - I was curious what the protection-level of the pick is. I still think we'll make the Playoffs (and promptly lose), but boy would that be adding insult to injury if we missed them and didn't even get a draft pick out of it! OTOH, how great would it be to have our ping pong ball picked in the Top 4!

 

[riverman]

There's no second half collapse..this is another panic attack thread..I predict another 13 game win streak in the second half

 

[Kaydow]

There's no second half collapse..this is another panic attack thread..I predict another 13 game win streak in the second half

Wasn't it 11 straight wins? Regardless, I hope you're right, but I don't think it's panic attack-ish to realize missing the playoffs is a possibility. The Western Conf. is so loaded that the #8 seed will probably have 50+ wins. For us, that would take playing .500 the rest of the way (14-14). Given that we've lost 8 of 13 and looked tired/worn out in doing so, suffered some key injuries, while #9 Memphis has won 15 of 19 & the other 3 teams we're ahead of all look really good . . . is it that hard to see us fall out of the playoff picture? I'm not suggesting this will happen, but realize that it could. If we did miss out, it won't be because we "choked". Our starting 5 is great. CJ has looked good at times, and Freeland was solid before injury. After that, shaky at best. There's just a lot of weight that the top half of the roster has to hold up. You can see it's weighing on them. But they won't panic. I believe they will fight hard and make us proud. That said, margin for error isn't razor thin, but it feels much lower than it did a month ago.

 

[riverman]

Wasn't it 11 straight wins? Regardless, I hope you're right, but I don't think it's panic attack-ish to realize missing the playoffs is a possibility. The Western Conf. is so loaded that the #8 seed will probably have 50+ wins. For us, that would take playing .500 the rest of the way (14-14). Given that we've lost 8 of 13 and looked tired/worn out in doing so, suffered some key injuries, while #9 Memphis has won 15 of 19 & the other 3 teams we're ahead of all look really good . . . is it that hard to see us fall out of the playoff picture? I'm not suggesting this will happen, but realize that it could. If we did miss out, it won't be because we "choked". Our starting 5 is great. CJ has looked good at times, and Freeland was solid before injury. After that, shaky at best. There's just a lot of weight that the top half of the roster has to hold up. You can see it's weighing on them. But they won't panic. I believe they will fight hard and make us proud. That said, margin for error isn't razor thin, but it feels much lower than it did a month ago.

Not a team in the league the Blazers can't beat and no, we're not missing the playoffs period. I realize my opinion concerning this roster is not popular but I really believe in this version of the Blazers.

 

[TBpup]

There's no second half collapse..this is another panic attack thread..I predict another 13 game win streak in the second half

I'd take that bet...and be happy to lose it if that were the case.

 

[riverman]

I'd take that bet...and be happy to lose it if that were the case.

Somebody has to cheer around here. I decided that was me. Not many folks seemed happy to lose last night!