Sergio v Blake (in numbers)

[shamelessblazer]

The Sergio supporters claim he has cut down on his turnovers. Yes, it's true. Sergio is averaging a career best 3.84 TO/48. Down from last season's 4.05 TO/48. However, it's Blake that has shown even more improvement in this area - and he was already much better at protecting the ball than Sergio. This season, Blake is averaging a career best 1.56 TO/48, down from last year's 2.24 TO/48. Sergio is more than twice as likely to turn the ball over as Blake, and the gap is getting wider, not narrower. Another way to look at it is Blake has just one more TO in 215 minutes than Sergio has in 75 minutes.

Well Sergio has the ball a lot more than Blake when they're in, and the team scores far more. Blake just gives the ball to Roy then hides in the corner. A better thing to look at would be team assists/turnovers when Serigo is on the floor compared to team assists/turnovers with Blake on the floor.

Sergio -http://www.82games.com/0809/08POR2D.HTM

Blake - http://www.82games.com/0809/08POR1D.HTM

Interesting items to note:
With Sergio we have: 49% effective FG%, 68% of FG assisted, 9 TO (per 48)
we allow/force: 49% eff FG%, 63% FG assisted all, 14 TO (per 48)

With Blake we have:49% effective FG%, 53% of FG ass, 10 TO (per 48)
we allow: 55% eff FG%, 53% FG assisted all, 11 TO (per 48)

What can we deduce from these numbers? Probably not a ton, but those asserting Sergio plays much more inefficient than Blake are simply wrong. We score at the same %, and defend at the same % (per possession) but we basically dare the opponent to up the tempo, and then beat them at it (in the form of net turnovers and assisted FG). We actually turn the ball over less in this system. If the roles were reversed I'm not sure Sergio's units could support this type of data for longer periods of time as we do tend to shock the other team, but Sergio's unit simply plays better (compared to the other team) than Blake's. This does not mean Sergio is the better player, and it could be due to the other teams focus in scouting, tired legs, lack of depth...etc. But no one should dare try to use Blake's numbers to show why he's a better PG and claim team play, that is for sure. We also play better defense with Sergio's units on the floor. I get that the other team gets more easy buckets (this is true) but they also turn the ball over more often and force more poor shots.

Viva Sergio (for at least 20 mpg with Rudy)

Blake is a better shooter, I'll give him that. But Sergio's units flow more cohesively and are more efficient (compared to the other team) than Blake's.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Nice try. Unfortunately, you proved nothing in the Blake vs. Sergio debate. All you proved is that, through seven games, our starting unit, minus Oden and Martell are below average, and we have a better 2nd unit than most of our opponents.

The stats you quote are team stats, not individual stats. They say more about who you're on the court with than your impact as an individual. More important still, is who you're on the court against.

Blake, as a starter gets a lot of his minutes with Roy and Aldridge. So far, that looks pretty good. But, with Oden and Martell both injured, that means he's also playing with Joel and Batum on the starting unit. As much as I love Batum's energy and intangibles, he's a 19-year old rookie who has trouble scoring consistently. And, as much as I love Joel's rebounding, defense and picks, he's pretty much the worst offensive starter in the entire league. So, two of the four guys Blake plays with in the starting line-up are, to put it kindly, offensively challenged.

Combine that with the fact the the NBA concocted this horrific schedule to showcase Greg Oden against the top big men in the league and we're getting outscored about 25-4 at the starting center position. Joel has had to go head-to-head against Yao, Al Jefferson, Dwight Howard, etc. Is it any wonder our stating five is getting outscored by the opposition's starting unit? I don't think so. In fact, I'm surprised it's as close as it is.

Our bench is very deep and talented. This is one of our advantages. Yes, Sergio is part of that, but Rudy and Travis Outlaw are a MUCH bigger part. They are two of our most talented offensive players,and will rarely, if ever, get outscored by someone off the opposing bench.

So, in relative terms (and the stats you cited agree with this), with Oden and Martell out, our starting unit is below average and is getting outscored by our opponents starting units, and our bench is above average compared to the rest of the league. This really isn't news to anyone who has been following the team and we didn't need these stats to prove it. These particular stats reinforce what we already know, but don't tell us anything specific about Blake vs. Sergio. You can't really use team stats to extrapolate individual contributions as there are always nine other guys on the court heavily influencing these types of stats.

BNM

 

[noknobs]

And, as much as I love Joel's rebounding, defense and picks, he's pretty much the worst offensive starter in the entire league.

Bite your tongue!

Joel leads the league in FG% for players who have played over 2 games this year, with an astounding 76.5%! His offensive prowess is very Olajuwon-esque. When Sergio starts playing with him, I expect his assists to increase dramatically, while Blakes will probably diminish when he's forced to feed Oden down low.

 

[shamelessblazer]

Our bench is very deep and talented. This is one of our advantages. Yes, Sergio is part of that, but Rudy and Travis Outlaw are a MUCH bigger part. They are two of our most talented offensive players,and will rarely, if ever, get outscored by someone off the opposing bench.

So, in relative terms (and the stats you cited agree with this), with Oden and Martell out, our starting unit is below average and is getting outscored by our opponents starting units, and our bench is above average compared to the rest of the league. This really isn't news to anyone who has been following the team and we didn't need these stats to prove it. These particular stats reinforce what we already know, but don't tell us anything specific about Blake vs. Sergio. You can't really use team stats to extrapolate individual contributions as there are always nine other guys on the court heavily influencing these types of stats.

BNM

yes but PG play is measured by team cohesion and the fact remains that currently (due to a variety of factors such as fatigue, bench v starters, etc.) the team is playing very well with Sergio in. I understand he has good players to work with and all, and he's playing against benches, but he gets more out of his teammates than Blake at the moment. And while Blake is playing w/Joel and Batum, I don't exactly see a frontcourt of Outlaw/Frye as an attractive one for a PG to get easy buckets out of with interior threats...remember Sergio did make Magloire look good in stretches during his freshman year, and I'm excited to see the effect of a real big (pryz) out there with him this year. I'm not saying Sergio is better, but I am making the point that though supposedly Blake has less turnovers than Sergio there's the same amount coming when the team's on the floor (from Roy and others), and that though Sergio's defense is horrid (supposedly), opponents aren't having any sort of heydey on our second unit. We're forcing teams to play our way and adjust mid-game, and they're not doing well. that's something to continue to take advantage of, that's the point I was making, and merely lobbying that we need to continue to give our second unit consistent time on the floor.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I don't exactly see a frontcourt of Outlaw/Frye as an attractive one for a PG to get easy buckets out of with interior threats

Neither Frye nor Outlaw are serious low post threats. However, they are both good jump shooters and MUCH better offensive players than Joel and Batum. Last year, Sergio got a lot of his assists by simply finding James Jones open in the corner. With Frye and Outlaw, he can get assists by getting them the ball when they are open. It's very hard to get assists passing the ball to Joel, because he can't catch anything and Batum because he gets most of his points off garbage and hustle plays.

We're forcing teams to play our way and adjust mid-game, and they're not doing well. that's something to continue to take advantage of, that's the point I was making, and merely lobbying that we need to continue to give our second unit consistent time on the floor.

Blake and Sergio play two different roles. When Roy is in the game, the offense runs through him. Blake's job is to bring the ball up the court without turning it over, hand it to Roy, get open when your man doubles off you and knock down the open shots. This is the EXACT same role John Paxon and BJ Armstrong played on those Bulls championship teams. He plays this role well.

In your first post, you advocated for 20MPG for Sergio. The problem with that is convincing your opponents to play their starters for only 28 minutes. I guarantee you that the starters on veteran teams like the Lakers, and most other play-off teams, aren't going to be rattled and forced to adjust to Sergio. He might get away with that against some teams' send units, but if you play him against the other team's starters, it's the Blazers that are going to be the ones adjusting mid-game, not the other way around.

BNM

 

[shamelessblazer]

In your first post, you advocated for 20MPG for Sergio. The problem with that is convincing your opponents to play their starters for only 28 minutes. I guarantee you that the starters on veteran teams like the Lakers, and most other play-off teams, aren't going to be rattled and forced to adjust to Sergio. He might get away with that against some teams' send units, but if you play him against the other team's starters, it's the Blazers that are going to be the ones adjusting mid-game, not the other way around.

BNM

hasn't been that way so far guy, and in these scouting sessions I bet most teams are going to spend their time going over Roy - Aldridge - Oden starters and not prepare for Sergio. It's the teams w/o a lot of depth that are gonna get their asses handed to em by being worn out by the Sergio/RUDY unit (Rudy running worked okay in the olympics didn't it against experienced guys) and then be tired when Roy drives in the last half of the fourth. Plus we can play zone with them (Sergio, Rudy, Batum have been playing it their whole lives) and really shake teams up.

 

[jwhoops11]

Stats are all cool and such, but I'll use the eye test on this one.

Maybe it's becuase Roy and Aldridge are on the floor when Blake is normally, but when I watch the two I'm much more comfortable with Blake running this team than Sergio.

I'm thinking Nate must use the eye test to...

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Maybe I'm not reading it correctly, but I see from
http://www.82games.com/0809/0809POR.HTM
that
Sergio's +/- is currently: -4.9
Blake's +/- is currently: +0.6

Blame it on the white unit? No, Rudy leads the team with +6.3

 

[1 Eye Jack]

The great thing about having GO play with the 2nd unit tonight is hopefully Sergio and Rudy can find Greg for some highlight moments. Also opens the floor up for Rudy to work his magic tonight.