Some stats and thoughts on playoff positioning

[free_lafrentz]

I just figured I would post some thoughts and stats that I looked up after tonights game. This is the first time all year that I have actually started looking at the scoreboards and standings. I have a feeling ill be looking at it every night from here on out...

here's some stuff to take note of...

Portland has 22 games to go in the regular season.
11 are home, 11 are away.
9 of the last 22 are against teams in the Western Conference "top 9".
6 of those 9 are at home.
Portland plays the Lakers twice at home before the regular season is over.
Portland has a 5 game road trip in March and a 4 game road trip in April.
Hollinger rankings predicts Portland will have 52 wins at the end of the regular season.
Portland can play .500 ball the rest of the season and finish with 49 wins.
Portland plays 11 (as of today) sub .500 teams in its last 22 regular season matchups.
5 of those 11 are home games for Portland.

That's all I got. Hopefully that inspires some hope and thoughts for the rest of the season. IMO it looks good the rest of the way and it sure appears that the odds are in our favor to get to the postseason. with a 4.5 game lead over PHX I would imagine playoffs look more and more promising.

Have at it!

 

[HailBlazers]

Nice breakdown. When the going gets tough the tough get going. Portland has shown a fighting spirit this year, I predict we at Least make Hollingers odds.

 

[Minstrel]

Hollinger rankings predicts Portland will have 52 wins at the end of the regular season.

That's been my prediction, too. I think it looks likely.

 

[alex42083]

52 wins sounds about right barring a real mental breakdown.
If we can go 8-3 at home, 6-5 on the road, that'd give us 52. And I think the way we've been playing at home, going 8-3 in the final stretch is pretty conservative and would allow us a little more leeway on the road.

 

[PapaG]

Hollinger rankings predicts Portland will have 52 wins at the end of the regular season.

Now wait a minute. I had 200+ response argument at BBF with a person now a moderator on this board stating why I thought that Hollinger's 41-win prediction prior to the season was BS. Of course, I don't expect this mod to own up to his defense of Hollinger at that point when I said it was BS.

 

[rocketeer]

Now wait a minute. I had 200+ response argument at BBF with a person now a moderator on this board stating why I thought that Hollinger's 41-win prediction prior to the season was BS. Of course, I don't expect this mod to own up to his defense of Hollinger at that point when I said it was BS.

what does that have to do with hollinger's rankings now?

 

[PapaG]

what does that have to do with hollinger's rankings now?

Well, it means that Hollinger's pre-season ratings were crap, as I said they were related to this team.

Was I wrong?

 

[Draco]

Well, it means that Hollinger's pre-season ratings were crap, as I said they were related to this team.

Was I wrong?

Congratulations you get a gold star!

 

[rocketeer]

Well, it means that Hollinger's pre-season ratings were crap, as I said they were related to this team.

Was I wrong?

right but hollinger's rankings now are entirely based on what has gone on during this season and his playoff odds are just a (lot of) simulation(s) using those rankings.

i don't see how his preseason rankings have any relevance. and with portland being a team that plays 4 rookies and hollinger basing his rankings all on statistical measures(though i'm not sure how he did this before the season), it makes sense that the blazers would be one of the more difficult teams for him to accurately rate at that time.

you saying something along the lines of "well wait, hollinger was wrong in the preseason" really doesn't make sense to me as part of this discussion.

 

[Minstrel]

Now wait a minute. I had 200+ response argument at BBF with a person now a moderator on this board stating why I thought that Hollinger's 41-win prediction prior to the season was BS. Of course, I don't expect this mod to own up to his defense of Hollinger at that point when I said it was BS.

You argued with both me and Ed O. I dunno which of us you mean, but I also thought Hollinger's prediction was low (and I'm pretty sure Ed did, too). We were arguing about whether it was appropriate to consider, as Hollinger did, the possibility that the team had been the beneficiary of some good luck (based on performance in close games or, more generally, the difference between their expected record using point differential and their actual record) to reach the record they did last year. You didn't think so, both Ed and I did. I still think it was a perfectly reasonable factor to consider.

 

[Minstrel]

Well, it means that Hollinger's pre-season ratings were crap, as I said they were related to this team.

Was I wrong?

I don't know, were you? One prediction being wrong doesn't invalidate his system. If you (or someone else) wants to do a study of how Hollinger's pre-season rankings tend to compare with other people's rankings, that would be interesting and help us determine whether you were right or wrong.

 

[B-Roy]

Seems like a relatively tough schedule imo.

We need to dominate at home. Even against the great teams.

 

[KingSpeed]

Great post, free.

 

[Iwatas]

Tough schedule. VERY good preparations for the playoffs. Playoff intensity games, with playoff teams in our conference. If we earn HCA, we will have done it the hard way. Super!

iWatas

 

[Iwatas]

Anyone able to correlate opposition win% for our competitors the rest of the season?

 

[Pinwheel1]

I see us at 50. 8-3 at home and 4-7 on the road. That is still a great season for this young team.

 

[Tortimer]

I'm guessing we get 51 wins and anything 50+ would be a great season for us considering how much time Oden has missed or was in foul trouble. I have a feeling all 8 teams that make the playoffs from the West could have 50 wins.

 

[MrJayremmie]

I see us at 50. 8-3 at home and 4-7 on the road. That is still a great season for this young team.

Sounds about right. What a great season that would be.

 

[free_lafrentz]

Incase anyone is interested in some similar information for PHX here it goes...

PHX has 21 games remaining on its regular season schedule
10 of those 21 are against the West "top 9"
6 of those 10 are on the road.
PHX has 11 home games and 10 away games remaining.
The only team PHX plays that has a record over .500 and isn't in the west is a home game against Cleveland.
PHX is currently sitting 4.5 games back from Portland.
PHX has a 3 and 4 game road trip.
PHX is 7-12 against other "top 9" western conference teams this season (Portland is 8-13).
PHX finishes the regular season @Memphis, @Minny, Memphis, Golden State.

When you look at PHX compared to Portland I would have to think Portland has an easier schedule since they still have one more game (a home game) to play than PHX and they're taking a 4.5 game lead into the home stretch.

It does appear that if PHX gets to the last week of the regular season tied with Portland they will have a much easier schedule, however. Assuming PHX and Portland are fighting for that last spot (which I personally don't see happening) PHX would have an advantage going into that last week.