Statistical insights

[UKRAINEFAN]

I'm sure this is some kind of sacrilege to devote a new post to a statistical analysis article from BE, but I think it's got a lot of good stuff!
http://www.blazersedge.com/2016/11/...-statistical-analysis-lillard-mccollum-stotts

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Here is just one of the insights gleaned: "Turns out, there’s a HUGE gap depending on which players Lillard plays alongside. Flank him with at least two other starters and the offense excels. Trot him out as the only starter and Portland struggles to put points on the board. Like really struggles. Every lineup with Lillard and three or more bench players has averaged fewer than 75 points per 100 possessions. The other starters weren’t a part of those lineups so their plus/minus numbers are much better."

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

and another:
"Turner and Crabbe have received the bulk of the criticism but it’s worth noting that they’ve done fine when grouped with the starters.
The problem is most of their minutes come alongside Ed Davis, Noah Vonleh, and Meyers Leonard, who are all having terrible seasons."

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

the part on how Portland's offense is so different from Boston's and how this affects Turner is very interesting. Willy Ready is actually the best writer over there by far in my opinion. He did a great game analysis once; I'm not sure why they don't have him do all of them.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

More on Turner (finally I understand how to run up my post count!):
"Stotts’ has gotten a lot of credit for making players into better shooters but that might be a double-edged sword. Players may need to be good shooters to succeed in his offense.
If that’s the case, then Evan Turner’s struggles are much more fundamental. A successful marriage will require significant adjustments from Stotts, barring a miraculous improvement from ET."

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

implications: it could take a long time to integrate Turner, or conversely he might have to be dealt.

 

[Denny Crane]

I found this bit to be great information:

This goes beyond just Lillard. Portland can add two bench players and be just fine. But once there’s three or four of them on the floor together the offense stalls. It doesn’t really matter which bench players Stotts picks. Turner and Crabbe have received the bulk of the criticism but it’s worth noting that they’ve done fine when grouped with the starters.

The problem is most of their minutes come alongside Ed Davis, Noah Vonleh, and Meyers Leonard, who are all having terrible seasons. Despite the promising glimpses, Vonleh is shooting 36 percent from the field. Old reliable Ed Davis is shooting less than 55 percent at the rim, a terrible rate for a big man and the worst of his career. Leonard has earned his reputation as a plus offensive player but that’s entirely dependent on his outside shooting. He’s shooting 33 percent from behind the arc. Let’s not write off Turner and Crabbe until they get a little help up front.

With so few threats elsewhere, opposing defenses can focus in on Crabbe and Turner, who are struggling to be the engines of the second unit. Crabbe has never been much of a creator and his contract was a bet that he’d continue to improve. That hasn’t happened and he’s still settling for jumpers. Crabbe can finish a play fine but he hasn’t been able to force rotations and exploit cracks in the defense.​