The Henderson/Kaman Sale Event Not To Be Missed

[brendanjames]

Theoretical Trade Scenario

Hendo and Caveman have to go, obviously. There are of course a million different ways to deal them but I wanted to see what sort of responses this theory gets.

Assume we package both and trade them to a playoff team, I figure we are looking at getting a rookie who is buried too deep in a rotation or a young guy who hasn't lived up to expectation plus a second round pick in either case.

So which team takes up the trade and which player do we get in return?

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[UKRAINEFAN]

It's your theory; maybe you should do the research?

 

[Pinwheel1]

Hendo could have some value if a contender loses a SG or two to an injury. Kaman has zero trade value.
So the most you are going to get IMO is a late 1st round pick by a desperate team. So far no team meets that criteria.
These guys are both FA's after this season, so no one is going to give you anything of great value.

 

[HolyBackboard]

OKC or Dallas seem like good trade partners. Both teams could use a shooting guard (OKC starts Robertson, has Waiters backing him up and Dallas has Matthews but no backup) and both teams seem desperate to win now (Keep KD happy, one last playoff run for Dirk).

 

[Natebishop3]

If you look at the standings, there are a number of teams that are underperforming this season.

In the east, you have Washington, Milwaukee, Detroit, and New York.

In the west you have New Orleans, Houston, Sac, and Phoenix.

Of those teams, who could use a shooting guard and center? Washington has problems with Beal's health. Milwaukee could use some veteran leadership. New Orleans is a mystery to me. Honestly, looking around the league, I'm just not seeing a team where they would fit and I'm not seeing anything that I would really want to go after that we could get for those two guys.

 

[42N8Bounce]

Henderson is ranked as the #12 best available free agent shooting guard by HoopsHype. (Arron Afflalo is ranked #5)

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Henderson is ranked as the #12 best available free agent shooting guard by HoopsHype. (Arron Afflalo is ranked #5)

Jamal Crawford a bit too high for being a 6th man gunner imo. Manu might play 1 more year but really he is done and if he does it is just with SA. Is Mayo a SG? He actually seems to play best at PG. Fournier and Grodon will tempt some teams though. I would put Henderson at @10 (by moving Manu and Jr Smith to 11 or later).

 

[0-Our!]

Henderson is ranked as the #12 best available free agent shooting guard by HoopsHype. (Arron Afflalo is ranked #5)

 

[e_blazer]

I disagree with your assumption that the Blazers would be looking for a rookie in a trade involving those guys. Olshey is on record saying that he's looking for guys on the same career arc as Dame. If there's a deal done in the season, I'd be willing to bet that its for a vet in the 24-27 age range with a big salary that his team is wanting to dump to avoid luxury tax.

 

[illmatic99]

I can't believe some of you guys had Henderson starting ahead of CJ before this season.

 

[brendanjames]

I can't believe some of you guys had Henderson starting ahead of CJ before this season.

Ha ha yeah I seem to remember it being a 50/50 split.

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[brendanjames]

I disagree with your assumption that the Blazers would be looking for a rookie in a trade involving those guys. Olshey is on record saying that he's looking for guys on the same career arc as Dame. If there's a deal done in the season, I'd be willing to bet that its for a vet in the 24-27 age range with a big salary that his team is wanting to dump to avoid luxury tax.

Salary Dump + Mid to Late First Rounder for the Dynamic Duo?

Any names come to mind?

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[brendanjames]

Why exactly did we not trade Kaman in the offseason? Surely as a vet big he has some trade value.

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[Pinwheel1]

Henderson is ranked as the #12 best available free agent shooting guard by HoopsHype. (Arron Afflalo is ranked #5)

I think you can make an argument that Hendo might be the 3rd best SG on that list behind Beal and DeRosan.
Not sure how much Wade or Manu will have left in the tank after this year. That list is not too appealing.

 

[Draco]

They are less valuable than our other trade asset; empty cap space. We might not even make a trade with that.

I'm not even sure we could get a late second round pick for either one; which is a near zero value asset. They are two of the most overvalued trade assets I've seen Blazer fans discuss in years.

They are having poor seasons for a team 7 games under .500. There isn't any playoff team out there itching to work them into a rotation mid season. They are the type of player a team might look at acquiring for the minimum if we were to cut them but we're not getting an asset back in return.

 

[e_blazer]

I can't believe some of you guys had Henderson starting ahead of CJ before this season.

I'll confess that I had that opinion. It wasn't that I saw Henderson as better than CJ, it was that I thought CJ and Dame were too similar to spend too much time together on the court and that a bigger 2 guard would be better to start next to Dame with CJ being the 6th man. I think the rapidity with which CJ has expanded his game has knocked that idea into the trash can.

 

[Natebishop3]

I can't believe some of you guys had Henderson starting ahead of CJ before this season.

CJ seemed like the perfect Jamal Crawford 6th man type of player. He still might be awesome in that role, but he has played way better than I expected as the starting shooting guard.

 

[e_blazer]

Salary Dump + Mid to Late First Rounder for the Dynamic Duo?

Any names come to mind?

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The one that's been talked about ad-nauseum is Brook Lopez for cap space and a pick. I'm hoping that Olshey can find somebody a bit more durable than Brook has been, but I don't have any real suggestions at this point.

 

[Draco]

Why exactly did we not trade Kaman in the offseason? Surely as a vet big he has some trade value.

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Wrong question.

Why did we pick up the option on his contract?

I was shocked we did it at the time and it appears to be a mistake now. Ultimately we may have no use for that cap space so it may end up causing no harm but it was a curious decision.

 

[Draco]

The one that's been talked about ad-nauseum is Brook Lopez for cap space and a pick. I'm hoping that Olshey can find somebody a bit more durable than Brook has been, but I don't have any real suggestions at this point.

I'd rather keep the cap space than bring in Brook Lopez. He just signed a 3 year max contract.

A few months from now in the summer Crabbe, Meyers and Harkless will be free agents. Two of them may get nice sized contracts. CJ and Plumlee will be eligible for extensions. Hell CJ might ultimately get the max. Dame's max contract will kick in. We need to add some new free agent talent too. You throw a Brook Lopez max deal in with those salaries and we lose a lot of flexibility. Brook can't play against small ball units and has deficiencies in his game, plus major injury history. No thanks.

 

[e_blazer]

Wrong question.

Why did we pick up the option on his contract?

I was shocked we did it at the time and it appears to be a mistake now. Ultimately we may have no use for that cap space so it may end up causing no harm but it was a curious decision.

I'd hardly call it a mistake at this point. First, Kaman is a good asset just from his ability to work with our young bigs and teach them the nuances of the game. Second, he's still capable of playing 10-15 minutes a game and he can score. Experienced big men who can score and who don't have long ugly contracts are usually a pretty good trade commodity come deadline time. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Olshey turn Kaman into an early 2nd round pick.

 

[e_blazer]

I'd rather keep the cap space than bring in Brook Lopez. He just signed a 3 year max contract.

A few months from now in the summer Crabbe, Meyers and Harkless will be free agents. Two of them may get nice sized contracts. CJ and Plumlee will be eligible for extensions. Hell CJ might ultimately get the max. Dame's max contract will kick in. We need to add some new free agent talent too. You throw a Brook Lopez max deal in with those salaries and we lose a lot of flexibility. Brook can't play against small ball units and has deficiencies in his game, plus major injury history. No thanks.

Did you read something in my post that indicated that I was advocating for Lopez? I just said that he's been discussed here. A lot. I don't think he'd be a terrible get, but I think Olshey can do better. I do think that using some space on a veteran big man through trade could do a lot to make Portland a more desirable destination for other FAs this summer.

 

[Draco]

It's kind of an interesting time in the league; for decades we've always seen stiff centers with limited skills in high demand and vastly overpaid. Now with pace and space small ball its turning into a different league. Tyson Chandler, Dwight Howard, Brook Lopez, Joakim Noah, Roy Hibbert, all are very available for possibly just a first round pick or less. Philly has three lottery pick centers and is the worst team of all time. Last decade you'd have a dozen teams trying to acquire these centers but now there is little interest.

Heck even on our roster we have a number of players that seem to play their best at center in Plumlee, Ed Davis and Meyers. Not to mention end of the bench Kaman and Alexander.

 

[RR7]

All it takes is one team. I don't see how we'd be lucky to only get a late 2nd for Henderson, when we traded for a fairly comparable afflalo giving up a1st and Barton.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Wrong question.

Why did we pick up the option on his contract?

I was shocked we did it at the time and it appears to be a mistake now. Ultimately we may have no use for that cap space so it may end up causing no harm but it was a curious decision.

I'd hardly call it a mistake at this point. First, Kaman is a good asset just from his ability to work with our young bigs and teach them the nuances of the game. Second, he's still capable of playing 10-15 minutes a game and he can score. Experienced big men who can score and who don't have long ugly contracts are usually a pretty good trade commodity come deadline time. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Olshey turn Kaman into an early 2nd round pick.

Kaman was not a mistake. He is a big man vet that we sorely need in the locker room and on the practice court. Money was spent well (especially when we have so much of it), just doesnt show on the court.

 

[Draco]

All it takes is one team. I don't see how we'd be lucky to only get a late 2nd for Henderson, when we traded for a fairly comparable afflalo giving up a1st and Barton.

Well now we know they played equivalent as Blazers; but back at the time we expected to get a very different Afflalo. He was the leading scorer of the last few seasons teams he had been on and the main veteran in a MVP level Dwight Howard trade.

The landscape of the league often changes much faster than we expect.

If Hendo had any value around the league Charlotte would've traded him for it. We only wanted Vonleh in the trade. Has he increased or decreased his value with his play this season? I definitely don't consider it an increase. Hendo isn't worth the $6 million he is being paid and teams value him accordingly.

 

[illmatic99]

All it takes is one team. I don't see how we'd be lucky to only get a late 2nd for Henderson, when we traded for a fairly comparable afflalo giving up a1st and Barton.

Teams I'd target are Boston, Clips, and Bulls.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Teams I'd target are Boston, Clips, and Bulls.

Bulls especially. They have straight up came out and said they need more guards and deep shooting. Henderson actually has shot a career best in 3pt percentage this year right?

 

[illmatic99]

Well now we know they played equivalent as Blazers; but back at the time we expected to get a very different Afflalo. He was the leading scorer of the last few seasons teams he had been on and the main veteran in a MVP level Dwight Howard trade.

Career stats:
-AA: 11.5 pts, 3.0 rebs, 2.0 asts, 0.5 stl, age 28 when we traded for him on the last year of his contract.
-GH: 11.7pts, 3.3 rebs, 2.0 asts, 0.7 stl, age 28 now on the last year of his contract.

VERY comparable

 

[illmatic99]

Bulls especially. They have straight up came out and said they need more guards and deep shooting. Henderson actually has shot a career best in 3pt percentage this year right?

Yes at 38%. But they do have Dunleavy returning and McBuckets showing signs of life. The smart move for them is to stand pat, but who knows... if they keep on staying mediocre, I'd swing Henderson for Dunleavy's contract and their lotto protected draft pick in an instant.

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=pznwlew