The Narrative that Trent is a Good Defender is False

[RoseCityRebel]

As of this morning, he’s the only player on the team with negative DWS at -.1. Everybody else on the team is 0 or positive.

His DPBM of -3.2 is the lowest of anyone not named Blevins or Little, and his VORP of -.2 is lower than Melo’s and in line with DJJ and Covington.

When did this narrative begin? All I see is the guy out of position and giving up wide open threes. He has one great skill as a spot-up shooter but otherwise is a liability everywhere else on the court. I don’t get the posters who say he’s a good defender. He’s not. He’s been awful this year on all advanced defensive metrics and has regressed in his all-around play.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/2021.html

 

[illmatic99]

what was his number last year? And how did it rank on the team?

 

[twobullz]

Looks like last year his DBPM was -0.8 and VORP was 0.6. I am no expert on these advanced numbers. Last year they had him listed on that site as a SF and this year a SG. Does position impact the numbers? or it just players as a whole?

 

[RoseCityRebel]

what was his number last year? And how did it rank on the team?

You could look that up for yourself. I’m wondering why people think he’s some stud defender when the eyeball test and the advanced stats show he’s a liability.

Running around with energy isn’t good defense when you’re out of position all the time and getting torched. He was lower end of the roster last year with .3 DWS. Nassir Little was .4 in not nearly the playing time.

Trent is not a good defender by any statistical metric. He’s regressed from last year, too. No wonder he looks so pissy each game.

 

[illmatic99]

You could look that up for yourself. I’m wondering why people think he’s some stud defender when the eyeball test and the advanced stats show he’s a liability.

Running around with energy isn’t good defense when you’re out of position all the time and getting torched.

I'm asking YOU because your brought it up and didnt see that he was our best wing defender per that metric who got regular minutes last season. This year could be an artifact. You asked where the narrative came from... Well there ya go.

 

[GDiama]

I think I agree. He cares and gives much energy on the defensive end, but he looks better than he actually is.

 

[ehizzy3]

I can see it. He is aggressive on a team full of passive defenders so he sticks out, but he isn’t necessarily a good defender. He still has too many avoidable fouls

 

[Orion Bailey]

The narrative started when people thought he defended AD well last year.

 

[stampedehero]

Bottom Line: Blame all of it on Stotts. A coach is supposed to teach. isn't he?

 

[twobullz]

Pretty sure it started when PG, Booker and others were getting mad at him over his defense last year.

 

[Hoopguru]

When he played against harden last year and stole the ball from him a couple times is when he earned his rep as a good defender.
I still think he's decent in steals and drawing O fouls.

 

[RoseCityRebel]

When he played against harden last year and stole the ball from him a couple times is when he earned his rep as a good defender.
I still think he's decent in steals and drawing O fouls.

He’s averaging 0.4 steals in 25 mpg. That’s dead last for the 8 players averaging more than 20mpg. He has .1 blocks/game. Also dead last. Trent also only gets 1.6 rebounds per game. Dead last on the over 20mpg players. I’m not sure about drawing offensive fouls. Hopefully he’s decent at it.

As I said, the stats don’t fit the narrative.

Even both Kanter and Nurk average more steals. He’s a one-dimensional player and unless he vastly improves over the season, let someone else overpay him. A PER of 11.2 means a team is paying for potential on anything over the MLE.

 

[kjironman1]

The narrative started when people thought he defended AD well last year.

Or was it Lebron.
The thing also was he was shooting like 60% from three in the bubble and that covers for a bunch of flaws.
Then there is the people he has been asked to cover. Tough to find a stat on defense that is really worth a damn. Never takes into account the player they are up against. If you are asked to guard harden and curry day after day you are going to have pretty bad stats.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Or was it Lebron.
The thing also was he was shooting like 60% from three in the bubble and that covers for a bunch of flaws.
Then there is the people he has been asked to cover. Tough to find a stat on defense that is really worth a damn. Never takes into account the player they are up against. If you are asked to guard harden and curry day after day you are going to have pretty bad stats.

you are probably right as that would make more sense. I just remember people raving about his D in that series in particular. Or maybe just that first game.

 

[Cugel]

What percentage do his opponents shoot? I mean when the guy he is guarding takes a shot. Seems to me that would be a relevant statistic then compare it to other defenders. Or the number of shots opponents take etc.

 

[RoseCityRebel]

Or was it Lebron.
The thing also was he was shooting like 60% from three in the bubble and that covers for a bunch of flaws.
Then there is the people he has been asked to cover. Tough to find a stat on defense that is really worth a damn. Never takes into account the player they are up against. If you are asked to guard harden and curry day after day you are going to have pretty bad stats.

Trent plays 25mpg and is the worst advanced defensive player in the rotation. That leaves 23 other minutes of someone else guarding whoever he’s supposed to defend and those players aren’t the worst in the rotation.

I think extremely overrated and because he is a very good spot-up shooter who offers nothing else, he’s overrated by many fans, and probably even by himself. The energy is good. The results are not. Can it be fixed? Maybe. I wouldn’t sign him to a big contract.

 

[Natebishop3]

His positioning is bad. I have seen him over position and give up the drive many times. He puts out good effort and has high energy but that doesn't make up for bad technique.

 

[tester551]

His positioning is bad. I have seen him over position and give up the drive many times. He puts out good effort and has high energy but that doesn't make up for bad technique.

Bad technique can be fixed with good coaching.
Energy and effort can not....

 

[Natebishop3]

Bad technique can be fixed with good coaching.
Energy and effort can not....

I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm just saying I think most of his issues are technique.

 

[riverman]

Gary can play defense when he locks in...he did it at the end of last season and in the bubble but this season he's inconsistent....I remember when Alan Crabbe had a hot streak when Batum was injured that upped his value...is he in the league now? Gary can prove himself to be an impact player by being consistent and not taking games off. He's young and talented and has a motor...could go either way but he should have taken the early deal Olshey offered him and not banked on a big payday in the off season

 

[Natebishop3]

Gary's problem, as far as I can see, is that he's young and he plays outside of his strengths sometimes.

He does it on offense and he does it on defense.

The guy is deadly as hell when he's in a catch and shoot situation, but when he tries to create off the dribble he often finds himself in trouble. Similarly, he takes a lot of gambles on defense that end up costing him with fouls or allowing his man to go around him. I think this is just inexperience and he will improve with time.

 

[Minstrel]

I think Trent is inconsistent. He's capable of playing good defense, he's capable of turning in a great night's work against a top-caliber wing or guard, but he doesn't do that night in and night out. People often tend to find the great performances more memorable and they stick in the mind. I buy that Trent isn't a very good defender overall, but I think he can be. Of course, making your best into your average is the goal for every player and most can't--so we'll have to see where Trent ends up.

 

[BonesJones]

His positioning is bad. I have seen him over position and give up the drive many times. He puts out good effort and has high energy but that doesn't make up for bad technique.

Bad technique is common on this team, and its entirely fixable. But Stotts is the coach, so...

 

[wizenheimer]

as a stathead, I'mm make a couple of observations:

* one is that winshare numbers, other than winshares/48 is a cumulative number. The more total minutes played, the higher the winshare will be

* for a bench player, especially one averaging 25 minutes or less, DBPM and OBPM need the context of rotations. Otherwise there's too much noise. For instance, if Trent spends a lot of minute with Kanter at C instead of Nurkic, or Melo at PF instead of RoCo, he's going to have a lower DBPM

one defensive gauge I think is mostly valid (with some caveats) is comparing a player's individual defensive rating to that of the team. Last year, Portland had a D Rating of 114.8 while Trent was at 117. This year, the team had a D Rating of 114.4 (hard to believe this team is only 0.4 points better on defense than last year's disaster) while Trent is at a team worst 121. Now, while this can have a similar rotational skew as DBPM, those numbers are kind of hard to ignore and just credit to circumstance. And Last year, Trent was in the bottom half of the league among SG's in DRPM

I don't think Trent is a good defender. He's not as bad as his numbers tend to indicate either, but he's certainly got an undeserved reputation as a good defender. Maybe people are confusing intensity and effort with results.

 

[julius]

He plays good defense if you are a bad defensive team. He plays bad defense if you're a passable defensive team.

 

[KingSpeed]

The only reason we beat Lakers last month was because he shot the lights out. But yeah, CJ is a much better defender than Trent.

 

[Phatguysrule]

All I care about is his effort. He's smart enough to learn how to become a better defender.

He can shoot and plays hard on both offense and defense.

 

[Hoopguru]

Funny that last year went Trent was having an impact on some big games, most in here were acknowledging his defensive talents. Sure is a different tune now.

 

[UncleCliffy'sDaddy]

I’m kinda glad to see this thread, if for no other reason than I thought I was the only one who didn’t think Trent was all that great on defense. The kid is young, has genuine skills and a terrific work ethic, but right now all I see is a frenetic gunner who rarely sees an open teammate he can’t ignore. Seems to me his focus might be more on the next contract than anything. And it’s likely someone is going to overpay him. I can’t get too excited anyway because we seem to develop a shit ton of second rounders only to price ourselves out just of retaining them. Personally, I’d trade Trent sooner, rather than later, so we don’t see him walk for an offer we can’t match.

 

[wizenheimer]

Funny that last year went Trent was having an impact on some big games, most in here were acknowledging his defensive talents. Sure is a different tune now.

I remember that, but what I recall was that people seemed to be reacting on a curve; one based upon what they were used to seeing on defense from Portland guards. Trent looked engaged and he was intense and working hard. He'd have a decent defensive game and that was noticed. Much less noticed were the lapses he had on defense in other games

in other words, the defensive standards for a Portland guard over the previous 5 seasons had been set by Dame, CJ, Crabbe, Connaughton, Stauskas...bad defenders like that. Napier and Curry were a little better but their size limited their defensive versatility. The taller Trent coming along after 5 years of those other Blazer guards looked a lot better than he really was. When the gauge was what Blazer fans were used to, yeah, he looked good. But when the gauge is the rest of the NBA, he appears to be average, at best, and even that requires some homer imagination