<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Per 48 projections are worthless. Find Wang ZhiZhi's 40 minute projections. They're ridiculous</div>
I'm not sure why you're acting like we're arguing with each other, or like you don't understand what I'm saying. Brian Cook was NOT much of a rebounder in college, and in the NBA isn't much of one either. He produced the same rate of rebounds in the NBA as he did in college when we take into account the RPG decrease that should happen. Those were not per 48 minute projections, no one plays that much, not many guys play 40 minutes either, but the point of it isn't to say this is how much he's going to give you, it's to say this is the rate of production he's giving you. No player playing 19 minutes in a game grabs an amount of rebounds that will impress you pure numbers wise (only a few like Reggie Evans or something). Shaq in 05-06 grabbed 9.2 RPG, but was he really 1 RPG worse than in 04-05 when he grabbed 10.4 RPG? No, he wasn't, but injuries forced him to play 4 less MPG, if you look at per 40 numbers, you see that his rebounding and even scoring production was at the same rate as the previous season.
<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">No it's not and don't lie to yourself. Anything under 2 is not considered "pretty good." If you're telling me Kenyon wasn't an athletic player from '02 - '04 you're kidding yourself. I might give you '02 cause he did spend more time at the power forward position cause of KVH, but to pretend that that injury slowed him down when he obviously was still top 5 in athleticism or to think that 1.7 is pretty good is ridiculous. The top shot blockers in the league play 33 or less minutes and 1.7 would barely put you in the top 15 and there are guys like Diop, Darko, Tyrus Thomas that would get more blocks if they had the 10+ extra minutes that Kenyon got. </div>
I suppose I am lying to myself then. Kenyon Martin's last year in college, he averaged 3.5 BPG, then he broke his leg before the tournament, and before coming to the NBA. We never saw him play in college post broken leg, and I don't think he would've averaged 3.5 BPG post broken leg in college, that's just my opinion I guess. I don't think he would've averaged 3 BPG in the NBA either though. I'm not saying he wasn't athletic in New Jersey anymore either, he was still athletic. Fast, quick, could jump, but wasn't the athlete he was before that. Anyways, even with that, he was still able to translate his shot blocking to 1.7 BPG in 33 mins in the NBA. Now in comparing with Williams, Sean has been either as good or a better shot blocker in college than Martin was for his three seasons. His shot blocking rate was either at the same level (soph) or better than Kenyon's, and overall was better with the two better seasons being a decent amount better.
I think this is just a case of a different interpretation of words with you saying 1.7 is not "pretty good". I don't understand what you consider pretty good shot blocking, I consider the guys over 2 blocks a game good shot blockers, guys in the higher 2 BPG range very good shot blockers, and guys like Alonzo, Camby etc great shot blockers. Maybe I should've said fairly good instead of pretty good and that would appease more to you, I don't really know? If I had know me saying pretty good would be translated as one of the best in the league or something, I would've used a different word.
Would you consider Kevin Garnett a pretty good shot blocker? Maybe you would, I don't know, well he averaged 1.7 BPG in 39 MPG this season (a worse rate than Martin who had a 2.0 BPG per 40 production). Would you consider Tyson Chandler a pretty good shot blocker? I don't know, maybe you would, maybe you wouldn't, well he averaged 1.8 BPG in 34.6 MPG this season. Would you consider Dwight Howard a pretty good shot blocker? Well he averaged 1.9 BPG in 36.9 MPG this past season. Rasheed Wallace? 1.6 BPG in 32.3 MPG. I'm a little confused here, I can't say they're average shot blockers, the average guy that blocks shots doesn't swat that many shots away. An average shot blocker is like Chris Bosh with 1.3 BPG in 38.5 MPG, so I don't know what to say here, I'll let you explain that one or just let it go.
<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">When players start playing 40 mpg then I'll take those into consideration. Those projections don't consider fatigue, level of competition, or anything else. They're worthless stats really. And in college level of competition is very important to consider because the disparity is so great.
And I'm not saying he was not a good shot blocker in college, I'm saying that I am skeptical about its transference into the NBA like Kenyon Martin. Jason Smith is another guy who's college shot blocking skills probably won't translate into the NBA. </div>
Again, I think you're misunderstanding the point of per 40 minute numbers. The point of it is with a good sample size to show a players rate of production. You just said yourself that guys like Darko, Tyrus, Diop etc would average more blocks playing 10 more minutes, that's the exact same thing. You see that their shot blocking production is good, and they're players who aren't fat or out of shape and with more minutes won't be ineffective, and you say they would block more playing more minutes with the same role (as long as they aren't hacks), and that's true. So now are you going against that? The point of his PER 40 isn't to say he's going to give you guys 5 BPG or anything like that (and I think you know that, which is what is confusing me), it's to say when he's on the court, he's a shot blocking presence, and will block shots.
About his shot blocking translating, he's one of the guys that has all the tools for it to translate, whether he's a smart player or not. Similar to a Stromile Swift, who's pretty much a bonehead player, but oh yea he can definately block shots.
<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">You didn't say them, but you ignored the factors of them. You can't say "improve basketball IQ." Anyone who's played basketball long enough knows how hard that actually is. Even harder for a guy who seems to be a hard head like Sean. I mean it's like telling Steve Francis, "improve your basketball IQ and you'd be the best point guard in the league." Ofcourse you can say that, but few achieve it. I think Baron Davis would be the best PG in the league, and maybe one of the best all time, if he didn't chuck the ball so much, but to this day he still hasn't learned the difference between a good shot and bad shot. I don't know how long you've followed basketball, but I'm old enough to remember when Derrick Coleman came into the league. One of the most talented players I've ever seen, even moreso than Oden or Durant, but his drug problems, stubborness, and inability to be a real team player is what kept him from becoming great. And Sean isn't even half as talented as DC, but has the same problems. Derrick was able to get by his many years by his talent alone, but Sean doesn't have that ability and my gut is telling me that I should not trust this guy.</div>
I know how talented Derrick Coleman was, and how good he could've been. I also know how bad Caron Butler was, and how he's changed his act, but I wasn't here to talk about if Williams can get it together. I was just talking about what he will definately do if he's on an NBA court.
I didn't ignore the factors, I was at that time just responding to you saying his shot blocking won't trasnslate, and that's by us assuming he won't be an idiot and actually play in the league. I wasn't giving some in depth analysis of the Sean Williams pick or the player himself, so I don't know is this criticism is really that relevant.
Now talking about Francis, when Steve Francis was 22 years old and first came into the league, wouldn't we have said that he could improve his IQ? Many players get smarter, we can see it, Bosh is obviously a much different character guy than Williams, lol, but he got smarter in a lot of things. Some improvements in IQ come from just playing, and this guy missed half the season for being an idiot. He had already made improvements though, he decreased his fouling to a very acceptable amount, and he improved his FT shooting to 70%, improved his offensiv ability. Going back to Francis, of course we won't now say he should improve his IQ when he's 29 and hasn't done if for who knows how long. That's not saying he can't, though I really don't know what he needs to improve in his IQ anymore, he was never the passer people thought, and his problem is just trying to do too much. Kobe does the same thing sometimes but is just a much better player.
I'm not here trying to tell you to trust him, I'm just here saying he's a very good shot blocker. The same way Eddie Griffin was and is still a very good shot blocker (and rebounder too), and even improved when he went to Minnesotta, but still can't get his act together and stay in the league. This has nothing to do with how much we can trust him to not be an idiot and actually be productive for your team, I don't trust this guy to stay in the league any more than you do.