The PER argument.......

[THE HCP]

How much do you guys use this to measure a player's value? What is lacking in judging players when using this formula? There are a few on here who constantly hate on Nic but when you look at Nic's PER ratings they are very impressive. I think if he got more time, his PER would go up even more! Right now the following players are the only SF ranked higher then him..........

1- Lebron.....31.85
2- Durant.....26.37
3- Carmelo...20.34
4- Gallinari...20.02
5- Pierce......19.77
6- Iguodala..18.76

Nic is at 18.72

Curious what this means. Is he an ABOVE average SF? Gerald Wallace is at #19 at 15.49!

It loses some credibility when players like Corey Brewer, Steve Novak, Jared Dudley and T-Mac are rated higher then Wallace.

Just wondering what you guys thought. I'm a huge Nic fan and think he is only going to get better!

 

[MickZagger]

People have always put a lot of weight into PER on these boards. That, of course, unless it goes against their argument. Then they just throw it out.

Its the best way of judging a players contribution to the game offensively. If Batum's D could be tied into his PER it would be even higher. Isn't it funny how those guys are all AS caliber players, Nic hanging right there with em.

"SMH"


With guys like Brewer and Novak you have to take into consideration how many minutes those guys are getting.

 

[THE HCP]

Nic is up there with LeBron on swattin' shots from behind. If it factored in D, he would be higher! I believe only 'Bron and Igoudala are better on the ball defenders then him on that list, maybe just James.

 

[Denny Crane]

It means he takes a lot of FT and makes .400+ on 3pt shots.

 

[PapaG]

Minutes played and USG% must be considered when assessing PER.

For starting-level players, I don't think there is a better comparative tool in terms of offense, but only if you take USG% into account as well.

For bench players, you'll see more a a variance, because bench players are typically playing fewer minutes, but are coached into a more efficient role, based on their skills.

Also, as noted, defense isn't really factored into the PER equation, at least by any effective measure.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

purely defensive players like bruce bowen (who play lock down d, but do not accumulate alot of blocks or steals) cant really be evaluated using per, as far as their total games go.

but you can still use it to evaluate their offense.

and papag, is there a definitive sweet spot for usage, compared to per in your opinion? jordan led the league in usage AND per in 6 different seasons.

 

[PapaG]

purely defensive players like bruce bowen (who play lock down d, but do not accumulate alot of blocks or steals) cant really be evaluated using per, as far as their total games go.

but you can still use it to evaluate their offense.

and papag, is there a definitive sweet spot for usage, compared to per in your opinion? jordan led the league in usage AND per in 6 different seasons.

Nic is actually awesome in USG/PER, and always has been. One of the best in the NBA for players over the past 4 years with a cumulative PER over 15.

His WS/48 this year is also incredible.

He probably should play more, but it would have to be for Wallace, because Nic isn't a SG.

 

[THE HCP]

Papa, do you honestly think Nic couldn't handle playing 35 minutes at the 2? He would have NO problem guarding the opposing teams starting shooting guard if you ask me. Start Nic at the SG and he will thrive!

 

[THE HCP]

I guess I'm wondering why you said he isn't a SG.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Nic defends the two better than Wesley, he shoots the ball better than Wesley, he passes better than Wesley (especially on the post-entry), he even drives better than Wesley. Why he doesn't start over Wesley is probably because he doesn't "scrap" like Wesley.

 

[THE HCP]

Nic defends the two better than Wesley, he shoots the ball better than Wesley, he passes better than Wesley (especially on the post-entry), he even drives better than Wesley. Why he doesn't start over Wesley is probably because he doesn't "scrap" like Wesley.

Nic needs to start...... my boy will thrive I tell you!

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

I place no value in it at all for the most part. It's like the +/- stat. It's meaningless.

 

[PapaG]

Nic defends the two better than Wesley, he shoots the ball better than Wesley, he passes better than Wesley (especially on the post-entry), he even drives better than Wesley. Why he doesn't start over Wesley is probably because he doesn't "scrap" like Wesley.

He probably doesn't start over Wesley because he has trouble at SG. Of course, I'm sure you know better. Let's take a look at the efficiencies again, or are you just going to continue to ignore it.

 

[PapaG]

Papa, do you honestly think Nic couldn't handle playing 35 minutes at the 2? He would have NO problem guarding the opposing teams starting shooting guard if you ask me. Start Nic at the SG and he will thrive!

Perhaps, but has Nic really played SG? Throwing him at that spot without practicing there in the offense seems unfair to him, doesn't it?

 

[MickZagger]

Perhaps, but has Nic really played SG? Throwing him at that spot without practicing there in the offense seems unfair to him, doesn't it?

How does the SG spot differ from the SF spot as it pertains to Nate's offense?

 

[TripTango]

How does the SG spot differ from the SF spot as it pertains to Nate's offense?

The SG in Nate's offense spots up for jumpers at the top of the key, rather than in the corner like a SF.

But in all seriousness, I wish we could see more of Nic in this role. I have a hard time believing he couldn't outperform Wes at this point, regardless of where he has been practicing.

 

[MickZagger]

The SG in Nate's offense spots up for jumpers at the top of the key, rather than in the corner like a SF.

But in all seriousness, I wish we could see more of Nic in this role. I have a hard time believing he couldn't outperform Wes at this point, regardless of where he has been practicing.

lol

 

[PapaG]

How does the SG spot differ from the SF spot as it pertains to Nate's offense?

You tell me. I'm not the one advocating starting Wallace and Batum at the same time.

 

[PapaG]

The SG in Nate's offense spots up for jumpers at the top of the key, rather than in the corner like a SF.

But in all seriousness, I wish we could see more of Nic in this role. I have a hard time believing he couldn't outperform Wes at this point, regardless of where he has been practicing.

He hasn't been practicing, and neither has the team.

 

[RoyToy]

must be taken with a bucket of salt

 

[MickZagger]

You tell me. I'm not the one advocating starting Wallace and Batum at the same time.

No. But, you said putting him there without practicing the offense seems unfair to him. What aspects of the Nate's offense does he need to learn to be able to play that position? To me, there it isn't really a different role within the offense in regards to being labeled a SG and SF. The biggest hurdle for SF's playing SG is their ability to stay with SG's defensively.

 

[MickZagger]

must be taken with a bucket of salt

lol

 

[PapaG]

No. But, you said putting him there without practicing the offense seems unfair to him. What aspects of the Nate's offense does he need to learn to be able to play that position? To me, there it isn't really a different role within the offense in regards to being labeled a SG and SF. The biggest hurdle for SF's playing SG is their ability to stay with SG's defensively.

Well, if that's how you feel, please explain why that is the case. Break down some tape. I assume there is a reason that most NBA players have defined positions in the NBA. If Nate has no difference between the SG and SF in his sets, tell me why, and I'll join the "start Batum at SG" brigade.

 

[MickZagger]

Well, if that's how you feel, please explain why that is the case. Break down some tape. I assume there is a reason that most NBA players have defined positions in the NBA. If Nate has no difference between the SG and SF in his sets, tell me why, and I'll join the "start Batum at SG" brigade.

Generally, a SG is placed at that position because of his size and ability to put the ball on the floor and create, along of course with the ability to defend the position. Its changed over the years in that just because of a players size doesn't necessarily mean they have to be put in that position. In Nate's offense its mainly predicated on ISO and pick and roll to Aldridge. Not much player movement off ball in halfcourt sets. I don't think the SG and SF position are really much different in Nate's system. Batum is better at putting the ball on the floor than the alternative in Matthews. I think the transition would be seamless.

I've seen the lineup as Crawford, Batum, Wallace, Aldridge, Camby on a few occasions and we played really good ball.

 

[TripTango]

He hasn't been practicing, and neither has the team.

I meant "where he is accustomed to playing". What does Matthews do at that position that Nic can't do as well or better?

 

[Boob-No-More]

It loses some credibility when players like Corey Brewer, Steve Novak, Jared Dudley and T-Mac are rated higher then Wallace.

As has been mentioned PER is highly biased towards offensive contributions. So, players who can score, but suck at other things (like defense) tend to have inflated PERs.

I look at PER, but also place an even higher value on WS/48. It's not perfect, but it weights offense and defense equally. The usual caveat about small sample size applies, but the level of direct competition should also be considered. Guys who play mostly against second unit players, or exclusively garbage time minutes will have inflated WS/48 numbers, which just basically says our 12th man is better than your 12th man.

Another good single number stat is the Net Production stats at 82games.com. It basically rates a players production against the guys he's guarding. Same caveats about sample size and quality of opposition apply.

I wouldn't use either of these stats in isolation. Keep in mind the Steve Novaks of the world don't spend a lot of time guarding LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony. Gerald Wallace guards those guys night in and night out. Of the guys you list, Jared Dudely is the only full time starter, he's actually a pretty decent player, but he still falls short of Gerald Wallace in both WS/48 and Net Production.

Here's a comparison, between Gerald Wallace and the other four you mentioned:

Gerald Wallace:
WS/48 = .143
Net Production = +5.5

Corey Brewer:
WS/48 = .138
Net Production = +2.8

Steve Novak:
WS/48 = .185
Net Production = -2.5

Jared Dudley:
WS/48 = .135
Net Production = +4.6

Tracy McGrady
WS/48 = .134
Net Production = +4.4

So, Wallace, as a starter is out performing all the other guys listed, only one who is playing a similar role (starter) against comparable competition (other starting small forwards).

For the record, Nicolas Batum excels in both of these areas (second on the team in both to LaMarcus Aldrdidge).

Nicolas Batum:
WS/48 = .198
Net Production = +6.1

BNM

 

[Blazinaway]

He probably doesn't start over Wesley because he has trouble at SG. Of course, I'm sure you know better. Let's take a look at the efficiencies again, or are you just going to continue to ignore it.

It can be easily argued that Wes has trouble at SG, and one could ask who would do better? Nic is shooting way better than Wes, has at least as good a handle (probably better). Is SG Nic's best position? No, it's probably SF. But it appears likely he could play the SG position better than WES and this allows Wallace to play and start at SF. Wes is currently no threat for outside and Nic is which helps the starting unit, and Nic can guard both guard positions as well or probably better than Wes. I don't understand why you would not at least try Nic starting at SG?

 

[Blazinaway]

As has been mentioned PER is highly biased towards offensive contributions. So, players who can score, but suck at other things (like defense) tend to have inflated PERs.

I look at PER, but also place an even higher value on WS/48. It's not perfect, but it weights offense and defense equally. The usual caveat about small sample size applies, but the level of direct competition should also be considered. Guys who play mostly against second unit players, or exclusively garbage time minutes will have inflated WS/48 numbers, which just basically says our 12th man is better than your 12th man.

Another good single number stat is the Net Production stats at 82games.com. It basically rates a players production against the guys he's guarding. Same caveats about sample size and quality of opposition apply.

I wouldn't use either of these stats in isolation. Keep in mind the Steve Novaks of the world don't spend a lot of time guarding LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony. Gerald Wallace guards those guys night in and night out. Of the guys you list, Jared Dudely is the only full time starter, he's actually a pretty decent player, but he still falls short of Gerald Wallace in both WS/48 and Net Production.

Here's a comparison, between Gerald Wallace and the other four you mentioned:

Gerald Wallace:
WS/48 = .143
Net Production = +5.5

Corey Brewer:
WS/48 = .138
Net Production = +2.8

Steve Novak:
WS/48 = .185
Net Production = -2.5

Jared Dudley:
WS/48 = .135
Net Production = +4.6

Tracy McGrady
WS/48 = .134
Net Production = +4.4

So, Wallace, as a starter is out performing all the other guys listed, only one who is playing a similar role (starter) against comparable competition (other starting small forwards).

For the record, Nicolas Batum excels in both of these areas (second on the team in both to LaMarcus Aldrdidge).

Nicolas Batum:
WS/48 = .198
Net Production = +6.1

BNM

Wallaces' lack of an outside shot hurts the team. When we start Felton/Wallace/Matthews/Camby our outside shooting has to be the worst in league. Call it slumping or whatever you want for Matthews and Felton but it's been that was almost all season. One IMO very strong argument for starting NIC is getting our best outside shooter into a lineup that BADLY needs it.

 

[Boise Blazer]

As mentioned before whether its Nic "natural" position or not there is nothing that Wes does drastically or at all better that Nic wouldnt be able to at this "un-natural" position for Batum. In fact Nic would do most things better and some things far better. And this is all right now with Nic not "knowing" this position. Putting him there now doesnt hurt the team at all it only makes us better and Nic would only get better there as time went on. Wes has proven he can be a very production bench player. I dont see a single reason, not one, why this isnt stupidly obvious to Nate. In fact if Nic was 6'4" we wouldnt even be having this conversation. But here is the stupid thing, the fact that Nic is in fact 6'8" only works in his favor. I understand that this is on a totally totally different level but its like telling Magic Johnson, "Sorry buddy, you're 6'9" so you need to play the SF position."

Another thing about Nic, his defense and specifically his blocked shots on the break flat erase guaranteed points for the other team. So for the people that say that playing him 6-10 more minutes a game wouldnt mean anything it very could be one saved bucket and we sure seem to be struggling in close games right now so I would take a few extra defensive stops at this point.

 

[magnifier661]

I think Batum should start at SG. A few reasons.

1.) that will light a fire under Matthews ass. Hopefully Matthews took up the challenge to get his starting job back.

2.) being SG gives you the best opportunity to help defend. That's something Batum has really mastered IMO.

3.) so far he has been our only consistent shooter. Shooting guard = shooter.

I love Matthews but lets be real here. The dude has been playing like shit this season. Something needs to happen or we will lose Batum. Yeah I know he's restricted. I mean more mentally.