The Poll Thread

[Денг Гордон]

Basically the story is, McCain opened up a +4 lead during his convention bounce period. During the first major news event since the convention (the Wall Street Crisis) that lead completely dissipated. Sarah Palin went from being super favorable, to now being the least favorable of the 4 candidates (Obama is the most favorable, followed by Biden).

Here are some key polls of this week (in order of oldest to newest)

Iowa:
Obama 52 McCain 40 (Des Moines Register)

It seems as if Iowa is pretty safely Obama. That will be the first for sure flip since last election.

New Mexico:
Obama 51 McCain 44 (American Research Group)
Obama 52 McCain 44 (SurveyUSA)

It seems that Obama is locking up New Mexico. MSNBC on their electoral map recently moved it into the Leans Obama category. Looks like the second state that it a lock to flip.

Ohio:
McCain 46 Obama 42 (Suffolk)
McCain 49 Obama 45 (SurveyUSA)
McCain 48 Obama 44 (Public Policy Polling)
McCain 48 Obama 45 (Fox News/Rasmussen)
McCain 47 Obama 49 (CNN/Times)

So Obama came into the lead late in the weak, after the Economic Crisis factored into the polls. I would put Ohio in the toss up category, but say it leans McCain.

Florida:
McCain 49 Obama 44 (Fox News/Rasmussen)
McCain 44 Obama 48 (CNN/Times)
McCain 46 Obama 46 (American Research Group)

So one poll shows Obama up, one shows McCain up, one shows a tie. This has been the story of Florida through out this election. 2000 all over again!

Virginia:
Obama 50 McCain 46 (SurveyUSA)
Obama 48 McCain 48 (Rasmussen/Fox News)
Obama 48 McCain 46 (Public Policy Polling)

Obama has a pretty solid lead here. Still in the toss up category, but in toss up - leans Obama. One thing I always look at is that 50% threshold. When a guy starts reaching that level consistently, I like their chances in that state. So Obama is nearing that level.

Colorado:
McCain 48 Obama 46 (Fox News/Rasmussen)
McCain 46 Obama 44 (American Research Group)

This state is still a genuine toss up. Obama has led in the state for so long. If McCain continues to poll like this though, I would move the state into toss up - Leans McCain.

Indiana:
Obama 47 McCain 44 (Selzer)

This is an interesting one. Obama has polled ahead of McCain a few times in Indiana. It is a traditionally Republican state, but that might just be because the Democrats never contested it. Selzer is the most accurate pollster, so these results shouldn't be taken lightly.

Then the most recent national polls show: Tie (Rasmussen), Obama +4 (Quinnipac), Obama +2 (Gallup), Obama +3 (Hotline), Obama +4 (Research 2000), Obama +6 (CBS/NY Times), Obama +2 (Reuters-Zogby), Tie (Ipsos)

One other thing I noticed. Obama is not losing any votes to third parties in the polls. Looking at Obama vs. McCain polls, against Obama vs. McCain with third parties, Obama is not losing any points from poll to poll, while McCain is. McCain might be the one to get screwed over by Nader this time around, not Obama.

 

[Denny Crane]

http://electoral-vote.com/

Obama 243 McCain 274 Ties 21

 

[CelticKing]

My politics professor today in class talked about his own calculations and that they're tied in his eyes. He's not just any professor, he was a mayor in one of the towns here in Western Mass, plus had other governmental jobs, now he's just a professor.

 

[Денг Гордон]

My politics professor today in class talked about his own calculations and that they're tied in his eyes. He's not just any professor, he was a mayor in one of the towns here in Western Mass, plus had other governmental jobs, now he's just a professor.

Here is how the race is in my eyes:

Safe Obama:

Washington - 11 EV
Oregon - 7 EV
California - 55 EV
Minnesota - 10 EV
Iowa - 7 EV
Illinois - 21 EV
Pennsylvania - 21 EV
New York - 31 EV
Districy of Columbia - 3 EV
Maryland - 10 EV
Delaware - 3 EV
New Jersey - 15 EV
Conneticut - 7 EV
Rhode Island - 4 EV
Massachusetts - 12 EV
Vermont - 3 EV
Maine - 4 EV
Hawaii - 4 EV
New Hampshire - 4 EV

Probably Obama:

New Mexico - 5 EV
Wisconsin - 10 EV
Michigan - 17 EV

Safe McCain:

Idaho - 4 EV
Utah - 5 EV
Arizona - 10 EV
Alaska- 3 EV
Wyoming 3 EV
North Dakota - 3 EV
South Dakota- 3 EV
Nebraska - 5 EV
Kansas - 6 EV
Oklahoma - 7 EV
Texas- 34 EV
Louisiana - 9 EV
Arkansas - 6 EV
Misissippi - 6 EV
Alabama - 9 EV
Georgia - 15 EV
South Carolina - 8 EV
Tenessee - 11 EV
Kentucky - 8 EV
Missouri - 11 EV

Probably McCain:

Montana - 3 EV
North Carolina - 15 EV
West Virginia - 5 EV

So:

Safe Obama: 232
Safe McCain: 166

Add in leaners:

Obama: 264
McCain: 189

Then swing states:

Nevada - 5 EV (Leans McCain)
Colorado - 9 EV (Ever so slightly leans McCain)
Indiana - 11 EV (Leans McCain)
Ohio - 20 EV (Leans McCain)
Virginia - 13 EV (Leans Obama)
Florida - 27 EV (Leans McCain)

So add in swing states, and:

Obama: 277
McCain: 261

Just an honest assessment of the electoral map.

 

[Denny Crane]

Here is how the race is in my eyes:

Just a wishful assessment of the electoral map.

Fixed.

 

[Денг Гордон]

Here are Nate's new projections.

And his projections are slow to new data.

Obama is still only getting 273 electoral votes when you divvy out the EV's...so not too great.

 

[porky88]

I think the map is starting to get interesting.

I think Obama has four Kerry states from 04 to worry about. Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. If the race were this Tuesday, I think he'd win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Call those my lean democrat states for now. New Hampshire is impossible to call in my opinion. Polls are close and it's an East Coast state that I think Sarah Palin could have a big impact in.

Obama will pick off at least two Bush states. That's Iowa and New Mexico. They just seem to continue to go Obama's way in the polls. Iowa seems real strong for Obama this year so I'm not even going to say that's a lean any longer. I'll say New Mexico is still a lean state though.

McCain has seven states to worry about that he might lose that G.W. Bush held.

I mentioned New Mexico and Iowa. The others are Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, and Colorado. A lot of people think North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, and Montana are possible pickups for the dems. I think they might have been in the summer but I think Sarah Palin has put those states away for McCain. Strong rep states in my opinion. Florida and Nevada, I think are leaning McCain and would go for McCain if the election were Tuesday. Those are lean McCain states.

Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado are impossible to call in my opinion. Throw those in with New Hampshire.

So by that math if I add the leaning states

Obama 261 McCain 232

Neither hitting the 270 mark. McCain very easily could win all four and take the election with 278 if the election were this Tuesday. Obama could sweep all four and hit 306. My point being is those four states I have no clue what they would be if the election were this Tuesday.

If I take out the lean states and we only put in only the strong states for each.

Obama 207 McCain 200

Ridiculously close.

That's about how I would describe the race.

 

[Денг Гордон]

Here is 538's current projections:

So the race is currently at 304 to 234 if you assign each state individually. This is pretty significant imo, because it is the first time where Obama's average matched up to the electoral map. Before, Obama's average (the number you see with decimal of 10,000 simulations) would be around that level, but he would only be at 273 electoral votes or whatever. So with the average matching the actual electoral map, it is showing that this exact map is likely coming up a lot of the time, while before, the number was just so high, because Obama was having a significant amount of 375+ electoral vote landslides raising the average up. That is not the case anymore. Obama has shifted the equilibrium of the race. As you can see, his popular vote totals aren't too much higher than McCain's in the projection, but he has a great electoral map advantage right now.

Although I would wait to see how this goes into next week, before you take this too seriously, but in the latest Galup poll, which has had a slight Republican lean, Obama is now up +6. Remember, Obama polls worse as the week goes on traditionally (not this week though, his lead has built up each day). More like a bounce, then erosion through out the week, and that process kept repeating, with Obama not actually gaining any ground, as it just bounced the same amount every week and then eroded the same amount for the most part. So I'm warning you now, don't be shocked when the early polling next week shows Obama up something like +10.

 

[Денг Гордон]

Obama's tied in North Carolina!

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/nc_obama_46_mccain_46_91719.php

All I can say is: The economy, stupid.

 

[Денг Гордон]

Today's polls:

Looks like MI, NM, WI, NJ, and MN should be thrown in the safe Obama.

The Pennsylvania polls have been interested, in that they have shown a tight race, but consistently has had Obama ahead. Hard to see McCain winning that if it's not a landslide.

Looks like Virginia is strongly leaning towards Obama, and North Carolina is entering toss up zone. Obama could go for a Virginia/North Carolina parlay (two places, where it is also likely he is underpolling 2-3 points), which would allow him a path to victory while losing Colorado and Pennsylvania, although unlikely.

 

[Денг Гордон]

Quinnipac has a new set of polls out:

Quinnipiac Universiy
9/14-21/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Colorado (1,418 LV, 2.6%)
Obama 49, McCain 45

Michigan (1,364 LV, 2.7%)
Obama 48, McCain 44

Minnesota (1,301LV, 2.7%)
Obama 47, McCain 45

Wisconsin (1,313 LV, 2.7%)
Obama 49, McCain 42

I like this set of polls, because they used large sample sizes.

 

[Денг Гордон]

*** Sunshine on Obama’s shoulders: If you want to know why Obama is doing his debate prep today in -- of all places -- Tampa, FL, look no further than the latest TODAY Show/NBC/Mason-Dixon poll, which has Obama up in the Sunshine State by two points, 47%-45%. Yet inside those numbers, Obama leads McCain in the Tampa Bay area (Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando, and Polk counties) by a 49%-43% margin. Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker says the key to winning Florida statewide is usually through Tampa Bay, and Obama’s six-point lead in the area explains why he’s ahead in this poll. Moreover, outside of Nevada, there is probably not another state that has been hurt more by the housing and credit crunch, and that may be benefiting Obama right now. Also potentially troublesome for McCain in this must-win GOP state, he leads by just six among Hispanics (49%-43%), which in Florida is made up of a majority of Cubans. (If Obama does pick off younger Cubans, he may close the overall gap thanks to his large lead among non-Cuban Hispanics in the I-4 corridor.) Also, McCain's four-point lead among seniors (48%-44%) is not as big as he needs it to be to offset the electorate-changing demographics among blacks and young voters. So Obama's decision to prep for Friday's debate in Florida is turning into a smart play, huh? Any extra day in Florida might pay off…

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/09/23/1435316.aspx

Umm....FLORIDA, FLORIDA, FLORIDA!

I wouldn't put too much stock into Florida. It's a state where the polling has been all over the place. Maybe a clearer picture will be drawn as the debates get under way, but I would say no way McCain loses this, and if he does, Obama will have already won the election from other states.

 

[Денг Гордон]

Last 3 Obama polls show: Obama +10, +4, +7. Colorado seems to be getting pretty good into the lean Obama category.

 

[Денг Гордон]

The daily 538 numbers

Also, Nate added this today. This is how the election would be expected to go if John McCain and Barack Obama tied in the popular vote.

 

[Денг Гордон]

The electoral math, if you have looked at the polls, is getting really fun.

So a recap for those who don't pay too close attention. The polls have moved in a way that New Mexico, Iowa, and Colorado all look pretty safe Obama. But New Hampshire has moved back into the toss-up area.

So Obama right now, building on Kerry:

252 + Iowa (7) - New Hampshire (4) + Colorado (9) + New Mexico (5) = 269

So then Obama needs to just win one of New Hampshire, Nevada, Nebraska congressional district, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, or Indiana out of the swing states to get the requisite 270 EV.

But if he loses in all the current toss-ups, we will have an electoral college tie. There are two ways this could go. 1. They vote for whoever wins the popular vote in Congress, and John McCain could become president. 2. They play partisan hardball, ignore popular vote numbers, and give Obama the presidency whether he loses the popular vote or not.

269 electoral college tie would have all the cable news networks creaming their pants.