The Trade Deadline

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looking at the schedule, the next 7 games are soft:

looking at the schedule, the next 7 games are really soft:

25 Sun, Dec 17, 2023 Golden State Warriors
26 Tue, Dec 19, 2023 Phoenix Suns
27 Thu, Dec 21, 2023 Washington Wizards
28 Sat, Dec 23, 2023 @ Golden State Warriors
29 Tue, Dec 26, 2023 Sacramento Kings
30 Thu, Dec 28, 2023 San Antonio Spurs
31 Fri, Dec 29, 2023 San Antonio Spurs


I think Portland can go 3-4 in that stretch. The Spurs seem to be in tank mode
****************************************************************************

but then, there is this 19 game stretch:

32 Mon, Jan 1, 2024 @ Phoenix Suns
33 Wed, Jan 3, 2024 @ Dallas Mavericks
34 Fri, Jan 5, 2024 @ Dallas Mavericks
35 Sun, Jan 7, 2024 @ Brooklyn Nets
36 Tue, Jan 9, 2024 @ New York Knicks
37 Thu, Jan 11, 2024 @ Oklahoma City Thunder
38 Fri, Jan 12, 2024 @ Minnesota Timberwolves
39 Sun, Jan 14, 2024 Phoenix Suns
40 Wed, Jan 17, 2024 Brooklyn Nets
41 Fri, Jan 19, 2024 Indiana Pacers
42 Sun, Jan 21, 2024 @ Los Angeles Lakers
43 Tue, Jan 23, 2024 @ Oklahoma City Thunder
44 Wed, Jan 24, 2024 @ Houston Rockets
45 Fri, Jan 26, 2024 @ San Antonio Spurs
46 Sun, Jan 28, 2024 Chicago Bulls
47 Mon, Jan 29, 2024 Philadelphia 76ers
48 Wed, Jan 31, 2024 Milwaukee Bucks
49 Fri, Feb 2, 2024 @ Denver Nuggets
50 Sun, Feb 4, 2024 @ Denver Nuggets

that last game against Denver is 4 days before the trade deadline

is 3-16 about the best Portland will do over that stretch?

if the Blazers are around 10-40 at the trade deadline what will they do?
 
wizenheimer said:
looking at the schedule, the next 7 games are soft:

looking at the schedule, the next 7 games are really soft:

25 Sun, Dec 17, 2023 Golden State Warriors
26 Tue, Dec 19, 2023 Phoenix Suns
27 Thu, Dec 21, 2023 Washington Wizards
28 Sat, Dec 23, 2023 @ Golden State Warriors
29 Tue, Dec 26, 2023 Sacramento Kings
30 Thu, Dec 28, 2023 San Antonio Spurs
31 Fri, Dec 29, 2023 San Antonio Spurs


I think Portland can go 3-4 in that stretch. The Spurs seem to be in tank mode
****************************************************************************

but then, there is this 19 game stretch:

32 Mon, Jan 1, 2024 @ Phoenix Suns
33 Wed, Jan 3, 2024 @ Dallas Mavericks
34 Fri, Jan 5, 2024 @ Dallas Mavericks
35 Sun, Jan 7, 2024 @ Brooklyn Nets
36 Tue, Jan 9, 2024 @ New York Knicks
37 Thu, Jan 11, 2024 @ Oklahoma City Thunder
38 Fri, Jan 12, 2024 @ Minnesota Timberwolves
39 Sun, Jan 14, 2024 Phoenix Suns
40 Wed, Jan 17, 2024 Brooklyn Nets
41 Fri, Jan 19, 2024 Indiana Pacers
42 Sun, Jan 21, 2024 @ Los Angeles Lakers
43 Tue, Jan 23, 2024 @ Oklahoma City Thunder
44 Wed, Jan 24, 2024 @ Houston Rockets
45 Fri, Jan 26, 2024 @ San Antonio Spurs
46 Sun, Jan 28, 2024 Chicago Bulls
47 Mon, Jan 29, 2024 Philadelphia 76ers
48 Wed, Jan 31, 2024 Milwaukee Bucks
49 Fri, Feb 2, 2024 @ Denver Nuggets
50 Sun, Feb 4, 2024 @ Denver Nuggets

that last game against Denver is 4 days before the trade deadline

is 3-16 about the best Portland will do over that stretch?

if the Blazers are around 10-40 at the trade deadline what will they do?
Click to expand...
I think we'll tank really hard. We'll have injuries ready for Ant and Deandre and since Jerami and Malcolm will almost assuredly be gone that should make it almost impossible to win... hell they might sit Shae at some point just so Scoot has a chance to be the man. I think that did wonders for Shae's game late last season.

We won six games after the trade deadline last season and this season I'm betting we can win less. I think we'll likely end up in the fourth spot in the lotto but we might be able to duck into that third spot and have equal odds for the first pick. I only see the game on deadline night against Detroit and the game against the Wizards on April 5th as games where we'll be playing teams trying to tank as hard as us.
 
The Blazers should try to trade vets for picks/youth. But if the value isn't there keep those vets until the summer.

Blazers should try to win and particularly Chauncey staff should emphasize playing hard every game. They can still give Scoot/rookies minutes even if another vet could help win a tad more, but it shouldn't be the joke of lineups as the end of the last two seasons. Keep vets active unless it's real injuries.

The team shouldn't worry at all about where our pick could end up. It'll possibly be very good even a real chance at #1 if we take no tanking actions, so it's just not necessary to consider that aspect. The prior two years were very different as the Blazers we're close to a .500 team at the trade deadline.

The risk of this franchise developing a pervasive culture of losing, and players developing non winning basketball habits is much higher than the risk of losing a bit of draft value in the Blazers pick this year. That's why the Blazers need to focus on winning and playing hard.
 
SharpesTriumph said:
The Blazers should try to trade vets for picks/youth. But if the value isn't there keep those vets until the summer.

Blazers should try to win and particularly Chauncey staff should emphasize playing hard every game. They can still give Scoot/rookies minutes even if another vet could help win a tad more, but it shouldn't be the joke of lineups as the end of the last two seasons. Keep vets active unless it's real injuries.

The team shouldn't worry at all about where our pick could end up. It'll possibly be very good even a real chance at #1 if we take no tanking actions, so it's just not necessary to consider that aspect. The prior two years were very different as the Blazers we're close to a .500 team at the trade deadline.

The risk of this franchise developing a pervasive culture of losing, and players developing non winning basketball habits is much higher than the risk of losing a bit of draft value in the Blazers pick this year. That's why the Blazers need to focus on winning and playing hard.
Click to expand...

If we trade our vets for picks/youth that will result in more losing. Though it isn't mathmatically possible to lose much more than we already are, it'll cause is to not even be competitive. Shaedon and Scoot just need to learn to play better and be more consistent.

I still think Cronin should be looking at what we can get for Ayton, Grant and Brogdon, especially Brogdon because he only has 1 year left on his deal and we're not resigning him. But we're not clearing the way for anyone by trading Grant or Ayton so there is no urgency.
 
I still wonder about Ant, do we play better with him? And maybe I am making something out of nothing but what was that stare at our bench about, is there some friction?
 
Blazinaway said:
I still wonder about Ant, do we play better with him?
Click to expand...

it's hard to say, one way or the other, mainly because the Blazers have been such a bad team the last 3 seasons

* the league average for PER is 15.0; Ant's career mark is 13.4
* the league average for winshare/48 is .100; Ant's career mark is .050
* the league average for BPM is 0.0; Ant's career mark is -1.7

he's posted much better numbers 'this' season, but that's a 6 game sample size from when he's been pretty hot while dominating the ball and usage

I think the hope of Blazer management is that Ant's good offense would more than offset his bad defense. Before he returned, Portland ranked 30th in offense with a rating around 106.5; now they rank 27th with a rating of 108.2. But they ranked 9th-10th in defense with a rating under 113.0. Now they rank 15th with a rating of 115.3. Their net rating was around -6.0; now it's -7.1.

that's not all on Ant, obviously, as he came back around the time that Grant, Ayton, and Brogdon got hurt. But I have not seen evidence that Ant makes the team any better. 6-12 without him; 0-6 with him, and yeah, I know...circumstances and sample size

Blazinaway said:
And maybe I am making something out of nothing but what was that stare at our bench about, is there some friction?
Click to expand...

I missed that
 
wizenheimer said:
it's hard to say, one way or the other, mainly because the Blazers have been such a bad team the last 3 seasons

* the league average for PER is 15.0; Ant's career mark is 13.4
* the league average for winshare/48 is .100; Ant's career mark is .050
* the league average for BPM is 0.0; Ant's career mark is -1.7

he's posted much better numbers 'this' season, but that's a 6 game sample size from when he's been pretty hot while dominating the ball and usage

I think the hope of Blazer management is that Ant's good offense would more than offset his bad defense. Before he returned, Portland ranked 30th in offense with a rating around 106.5; now they rank 27th with a rating of 108.2. But they ranked 9th-10th in defense with a rating under 113.0. Now they rank 15th with a rating of 115.3. Their net rating was around -6.0; now it's -7.1.

that's not all on Ant, obviously, as he came back around the time that Grant, Ayton, and Brogdon got hurt. But I have not seen evidence that Ant makes the team any better. 6-12 without him; 0-6 with him, and yeah, I know...circumstances and sample size



I missed that
Click to expand...
I don't think Ant is a good fit next to Shaedon.

I actually think Ant is a terrible fit with what Chauncey not only says he wants to do but actually gets his team to do when he doesn't have guys like Ant, Jerami and even more so Dame before them that are fairly efficient scorers outside of Chauncey's system. He lets those guys do what they do and it fucks up the flow of everything including the defense because guys just aren't as active on either end. The other guys stand around until they get their touches and because they're standing around they just aren't in the flow of being active when tasked with playing the switching aggressive style of D that Chauncey wants.

Ant isn't a nightmare as one thread suggests he's actually a helluva offensive player and a guy willing to give effort on D. He's just a hindrance to the development of Shae and Scoot and he doesn't fit in this system. It would take a lot to get me to move Ant by the deadline if I were Cronin but I would certainly take calls asking about him.
 
Okay, hear me out on this one.

Knicks are currently sitting in 6th at 14-11 and are currently only playing .500 ball. I think the Randle thing has run its course.

Indiana is also playing 500 ball currently, but I think they are ready to make a move or two to help Haliburton and Ant could be just the trick.

I'm not necessarily for trading everyone, but if we are, I see this as a decent option:

upload_2023-12-17_17-56-44.png


We would also get a top4 protected 25 or 26 unprotected 1st and a future 2nd. As well as a top4 protect future 1st from NY.

For us, Hield is essentially a salary dump, but is here to ride out the season as a mentor to Scoot. Nesmith fits more of the timeline and is a needed position for us.

This gives Randle a new scenario, so he can be our next years Grant, play well and we can sell high.


So we would ride next season with the following:

Scoot/Mayes/Shaerpe
Sharpe/Hield/Camara
Nesmith/Camara/Murray
Randle/Walker/Murray
Ayton/Reath/Brown

  • 2024 first-round pick via Golden State (top-4 protected)
  • 2024 second-round pick (via Minnesota or Charlotte)
  • 2024 second-round pick (via Atlanta)
  • 2025 first-round pick (own)*
  • 2025 second round pick via Atlanta (protected 41-59)
  • add either a knicks or Pacers first
  • 2026 first-round pick (own)*
  • 2026 second-round pick via Memphis (protected 31-42)
  • 2027 first-round pick (own)*
  • add either a knicks or Pacers first
  • 2028 first-round pick (own)*
  • 2028 first-round pick swap via Milwaukee (Portland has the right to swap its 2028 first-round pick, protected for selections 15 to 30, if it has not conveyed a first-round pick to Chicago by 2027, for Milwaukee’s 2028 first-round pick)
  • 2028 second-round pick via Golden State
  • 2028 second-round pick (own)
  • 2029 first-round pick via Milwaukee
  • 2029 first-round pick via Boston
  • 2029 first-round pick (own)
  • 2030 first-round pick via Milwaukee (swap rights)
  • 2030 first-round pick (own)
  • 2030 second-round pick (own)
Sprinkle in a 2nd or two for us and I would possibly pull the trigger.

Thoughts?
 
SharpeScooterShooter said:
Okay, hear me out on this one.

Knicks are currently sitting in 6th at 14-11 and are currently only playing .500 ball. I think the Randle thing has run its course.

Indiana is also playing 500 ball currently, but I think they are ready to make a move or two to help Haliburton and Ant could be just the trick.

I'm not necessarily for trading everyone, but if we are, I see this as a decent option:

View attachment 60851


We would also get a top4 protected 25 or 26 unprotected 1st and a future 2nd. As well as a top4 protect future 1st from NY.

For us, Hield is essentially a salary dump, but is here to ride out the season as a mentor to Scoot. Nesmith fits more of the timeline and is a needed position for us.

This gives Randle a new scenario, so he can be our next years Grant, play well and we can sell high.


So we would ride next season with the following:

Scoot/Mayes/Shaerpe
Sharpe/Hield/Camara
Nesmith/Camara/Murray
Randle/Walker/Murray
Ayton/Reath/Brown

  • 2024 first-round pick via Golden State (top-4 protected)
  • 2024 second-round pick (via Minnesota or Charlotte)
  • 2024 second-round pick (via Atlanta)
  • 2025 first-round pick (own)*
  • 2025 second round pick via Atlanta (protected 41-59)
  • add either a knicks or Pacers first
  • 2026 first-round pick (own)*
  • 2026 second-round pick via Memphis (protected 31-42)
  • 2027 first-round pick (own)*
  • add either a knicks or Pacers first
  • 2028 first-round pick (own)*
  • 2028 first-round pick swap via Milwaukee (Portland has the right to swap its 2028 first-round pick, protected for selections 15 to 30, if it has not conveyed a first-round pick to Chicago by 2027, for Milwaukee’s 2028 first-round pick)
  • 2028 second-round pick via Golden State
  • 2028 second-round pick (own)
  • 2029 first-round pick via Milwaukee
  • 2029 first-round pick via Boston
  • 2029 first-round pick (own)
  • 2030 first-round pick via Milwaukee (swap rights)
  • 2030 first-round pick (own)
  • 2030 second-round pick (own)
Sprinkle in a 2nd or two for us and I would possibly pull the trigger.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
If we're trading these dudes we're going younger not moving laterally or getting older... that's just my hunch and what I want.
 
blazerkor said:
If we're trading these dudes we're going younger not moving laterally or getting older... that's just my hunch and what I want.
Click to expand...

As explained, Randle is our next years Jerami. Let him have a good season and we trade him high next year. Nesmith is 24 and is essentially in the timeline. Heild is a dump. But we get two more first out of it, plus what we can get for Randle. AND shed some salary.

My scenario pushes the tank out yet one more year, but I think we get a double sale by getting Randle back with similar plans as we seemingly had for Grant.

That then makes Nesmith and Ayton our oldest main players at 24-25, with a crap ton of picks to round out the decade.

Not sure how much younger you want to get?
 
SharpeScooterShooter said:
Okay, hear me out on this one.

Knicks are currently sitting in 6th at 14-11 and are currently only playing .500 ball. I think the Randle thing has run its course.

Indiana is also playing 500 ball currently, but I think they are ready to make a move or two to help Haliburton and Ant could be just the trick.

I'm not necessarily for trading everyone, but if we are, I see this as a decent option:

View attachment 60851


We would also get a top4 protected 25 or 26 unprotected 1st and a future 2nd. As well as a top4 protect future 1st from NY.

For us, Hield is essentially a salary dump, but is here to ride out the season as a mentor to Scoot. Nesmith fits more of the timeline and is a needed position for us.

This gives Randle a new scenario, so he can be our next years Grant, play well and we can sell high.


So we would ride next season with the following:

Scoot/Mayes/Shaerpe
Sharpe/Hield/Camara
Nesmith/Camara/Murray
Randle/Walker/Murray
Ayton/Reath/Brown

  • 2024 first-round pick via Golden State (top-4 protected)
  • 2024 second-round pick (via Minnesota or Charlotte)
  • 2024 second-round pick (via Atlanta)
  • 2025 first-round pick (own)*
  • 2025 second round pick via Atlanta (protected 41-59)
  • add either a knicks or Pacers first
  • 2026 first-round pick (own)*
  • 2026 second-round pick via Memphis (protected 31-42)
  • 2027 first-round pick (own)*
  • add either a knicks or Pacers first
  • 2028 first-round pick (own)*
  • 2028 first-round pick swap via Milwaukee (Portland has the right to swap its 2028 first-round pick, protected for selections 15 to 30, if it has not conveyed a first-round pick to Chicago by 2027, for Milwaukee’s 2028 first-round pick)
  • 2028 second-round pick via Golden State
  • 2028 second-round pick (own)
  • 2029 first-round pick via Milwaukee
  • 2029 first-round pick via Boston
  • 2029 first-round pick (own)
  • 2030 first-round pick via Milwaukee (swap rights)
  • 2030 first-round pick (own)
  • 2030 second-round pick (own)
Sprinkle in a 2nd or two for us and I would possibly pull the trigger.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

Inferior return. Any trade with Indiana requires Jarace Walker in return.
 
Given how this team is playing with its "starters" back I hope its a VERY active deadline!!!!!
 
SharpeScooterShooter said:
As explained, Randle is our next years Jerami. Let him have a good season and we trade him high next year. Nesmith is 24 and is essentially in the timeline. Heild is a dump. But we get two more first out of it, plus what we can get for Randle. AND shed some salary.

My scenario pushes the tank out yet one more year, but I think we get a double sale by getting Randle back with similar plans as we seemingly had for Grant.

That then makes Nesmith and Ayton our oldest main players at 24-25, with a crap ton of picks to round out the decade.

Not sure how much younger you want to get?
Click to expand...
I wouldn’t want a “next year’s Jerami” unless he was a reclamation project, so we can build up his value and trade him. OKC did this with CP3, Utah might be trading Markkanen. Based on that return, we would be paying way too much for Randle. Is Randle going to return more than what we traded at the next deadline?
 
wizenheimer said:
looking at the schedule, the next 7 games are soft:

looking at the schedule, the next 7 games are really soft:

25 Sun, Dec 17, 2023 Golden State Warriors
26 Tue, Dec 19, 2023 Phoenix Suns
27 Thu, Dec 21, 2023 Washington Wizards
28 Sat, Dec 23, 2023 @ Golden State Warriors
29 Tue, Dec 26, 2023 Sacramento Kings
30 Thu, Dec 28, 2023 San Antonio Spurs
31 Fri, Dec 29, 2023 San Antonio Spurs


I think Portland can go 3-4 in that stretch. The Spurs seem to be in tank mode
****************************************************************************

but then, there is this 19 game stretch:

32 Mon, Jan 1, 2024 @ Phoenix Suns
33 Wed, Jan 3, 2024 @ Dallas Mavericks
34 Fri, Jan 5, 2024 @ Dallas Mavericks
35 Sun, Jan 7, 2024 @ Brooklyn Nets
36 Tue, Jan 9, 2024 @ New York Knicks
37 Thu, Jan 11, 2024 @ Oklahoma City Thunder
38 Fri, Jan 12, 2024 @ Minnesota Timberwolves
39 Sun, Jan 14, 2024 Phoenix Suns
40 Wed, Jan 17, 2024 Brooklyn Nets
41 Fri, Jan 19, 2024 Indiana Pacers
42 Sun, Jan 21, 2024 @ Los Angeles Lakers
43 Tue, Jan 23, 2024 @ Oklahoma City Thunder
44 Wed, Jan 24, 2024 @ Houston Rockets
45 Fri, Jan 26, 2024 @ San Antonio Spurs
46 Sun, Jan 28, 2024 Chicago Bulls
47 Mon, Jan 29, 2024 Philadelphia 76ers
48 Wed, Jan 31, 2024 Milwaukee Bucks
49 Fri, Feb 2, 2024 @ Denver Nuggets
50 Sun, Feb 4, 2024 @ Denver Nuggets

that last game against Denver is 4 days before the trade deadline

is 3-16 about the best Portland will do over that stretch?

if the Blazers are around 10-40 at the trade deadline what will they do?
Click to expand...

3-4? You're out of your mind. They will be lucky to win the Wizards game.

This leg of the schedule may be soft, but the Blazers are softer.
 
remember, the Blazers GM has planted many seeds. Joe has trade connections with the Pistons, Pelicans, Jazz, Clippers, Knicks, Bucks, Celtics & Suns. There's probably a couple more teams Portland has swung deals with since Olshey got fired. There's some good Blazers on this team that contending teams might want. It's important to expand the portfolio when losing for draft picks.
 
I think Brogdon is moved at the deadline.

I think Grant gets moved this summer.

I think they're keeping Thybulle, unless a great deal comes along.

I think we have Ayton until his contract runs out.
 
Natebishop3 said:
I think Brogdon is moved at the deadline.

I think Grant gets moved this summer.

I think they're keeping Thybulle, unless a great deal comes along.

I think we have Ayton until his contract runs out.
Click to expand...
I think there’s a good chance a team with someone like Lebron would take a chance on Ayton if it costed no picks, or a couple 2nds, if we really just wanted to shed his salary. That might not happen until next deadline or the season after. If he has a solid stretch to show a team he’s worth a gamble, a couple 2nds for a starting center’s bird rights would be more than worth it.
 
Natebishop3 said:
I think Brogdon is moved at the deadline.

I think Grant gets moved this summer.

I think they're keeping Thybulle, unless a great deal comes along.

I think we have Ayton until his contract runs out.
Click to expand...
Ant is also a candidate to be moved this summer I think. It’s a long season, and Scoot is only through like 30% of his first season. Even if people here don’t think Ant is a PG, averaging 6ish apg is at least going to give the impression that he can be one on his own team to another GM. 25/6 at 24 and on a great contract.
 
BankTeller said:
I think there’s a good chance a team with someone like Lebron would take a chance on Ayton if it costed no picks, or a couple 2nds, if we really just wanted to shed his salary. That might not happen until next deadline or the season after. If he has a solid stretch to show a team he’s worth a gamble, a couple 2nds for a starting center’s bird rights would be more than worth it.
Click to expand...
I’m not ready to give up on Ayton. I’d give it another year.
 
Natebishop3 said:
I’m not ready to give up on Ayton. I’d give it another year.
Click to expand...

People forget we need a minimum salary. I'm disappointed in DA but he's really skilled and he's always looked better with Scoot. We got Tou out of it. We took the right swing whether he's a long term fit or not. I'm kind of thinking not but that's not very relevant right now.

I'd imagine the Pacers have interest in Ant, Grant and DA. I want Jarace Walker.
 
AmirIcon said:
People forget we need a minimum salary. I'm disappointed in DA but he's really skilled and he's always looked better with Scoot. We got Tou out of it. We took the right swing whether he's a long term fit or not. I'm kind of thinking not but that's not very relevant right now.

I'd imagine the Pacers have interest in Ant, Grant and DA. I want Jarace Walker.
Click to expand...
I don’t think Pacers would be interested in Ant. I think Orlando would though, if they don’t go PG hunting at the deadline.
 
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