Thinking Long Term

[Orion Bailey]

Thinking long term., I think I might have turned the corner in thinking the draft can still help us.
I didn't say this last year because I was sold on NO's philosophy of" keeping it all on the same age timeline"

But thinking alot more about it, I have changed my stance, especially when looking at some of the past championship teams. They usually have a mix of young potential, savy vets, and stars in their prime.

There are many smart people on here and after reading some thoughts and ideas, I think I might have a long term plan that should work out money wise. We wont be winning anything this year anyhow, no matter what type of moves we make, so I think the best thing to do is not get hasty and try to make some sort of big time move now ,but continue the smaller calculated moves with a long term process/goal in mind.

I am hoping this is also what NO is thinking... or at least along the lines of...
Anyhow, here it goes.

Phi is likely to be a top three draft this upcoming season in a deep draft full of centers and power forwards.
They already have a plethora of big men, so they either need to dump the big men they have to draft smart in this upcoming draft or they need to just trade the pic for a player of need... like Crabbe.

I propose NO goes to Phi and offers Crabbe/Cleve 1stfor their 1st.
Looking at the draft, I think there are several guys that will end up with more potential and better careers than either Nerlens or Okafor will turn out to be. They are both more one dimensional and guys like Ayton and Bamba look to be legit two way players that this team could sorely need. If we cant nail them down because they go first, then we could zero in on Porter for our small forward of the future. and work on the PF/C in another move.
So two scenarios here:


We trade Crabbe, & CLE 1st to PHI for their better of BRKLN or their own, which one of them should nail down a top 4. We then draft Bamba/Ayton or Porter.
Moving Crabbe, should then free up money to resign Plumlee and we can then trade if needed.

If we draft Bamba/Ayton, then we look like this:

Dame/Napier
CJ/Turner
Harkless/Turner/Layman
Aminu/Davis/Vonleh
Plumlee/(Bamba/Ayton)/Leonard.

Obviously too many bigs.
The next move to make after the draft when trade season begins would be to improve our PF position and so I think we do something like this:
Leonard/Aminu/Plumlee/Vonleh for DMC in a sign and trade deal

Dame/Napier
CJ/Tuner
Harkless/Turner/Layman
DMC/Davis
Plumlee/(Bamba/Ayton)

Fill in the rest with MLE's.



Now. If we don't land one of those two Centers and go the SF route in Porter, then we look like this:

Dame/Napier
CJ/Turner
Harkless/Porter/Turner/Layman
Aminu/Davis/Vonleh
Plumlee/Leonard/Davis


The next step would be to do something like this:

Layman/Aminu/Harkless/Leonard for DMC and we look like this:

Dame/Napier
CJ/Turner
Turner/Porter
DMC/VOnleh
Plumlee/Davis

Fill in the rest with MLE...




I don't know if all of this is possible, because there are ALOT of tangibles, but we are the second youngest team in the league, so to say we are too old for a solid top drat pick to not come in and make an immediate impact is out of the question isn't realistic, and will only help our long term future. So Far, NO has shown his best skill is the draft, hands down, sop why not play the cards to maximize your skill set?

This upcoming draft is full of 5-6 immediate impact players with several of them being two way bigs that are project stars of the NBA. I do not see why we cant trade up to get into the mix. Even if we have to over pay, we need to dump some salary anyhow.

I forgot to mention that Ezeli is actually a good trade chip for a team at the cap threshold looking to make space, so that is a playing card as well.
I don't think we should use our draft picks in a trade unless its to move up in the draft. But I think our best long term play is to put together a package to move up into the lottery.
We don't have to tank to do this, we need to trade. And then if we end up in the lottery anyhow, we have two quality draft spots to fill out the needs of the team and thus make other underachieves more expendable to us.

I am all in for making a move to get us into the lottery and no longer want to see a trade for a vet right now. Especially when that vet may leave in a year. Lets get the young stud from the draft first and then reassess and look for that last missing piece with the remaining potential assets we have going into next off seasons trade timeline.

Lets go for the lottery in a trade, not an all star.


Thoughts?

 

[Stevenson]

Appreciate your hard work, but to be worth a conversation, I think you have to do better than "Layman/Aminu/Harkless/Leonard for DMC." That is really a non-starter to a serious discussion.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Appreciate your hard work, but to be worth a conversation, I think you have to do better than "Layman/Aminu/Harkless/Leonard for DMC." That is really a non-starter to a serious discussion.

I don't really think so though. Layman and Harkless have some decent potential and Aminu and Leonard aren't on bad contracts. Combined that with the fact that if they don't do something, they will get nothing for him, and that if they do trade him, they are looking at going all in on a rebuild. The players offered would make sense.
And if it isn't enough, then sweeten it up a bit. Toss our 2019 first in or something.
What if Porter comes out of the Draft and kills it and looks to be a starter right off the bat. Then maybe toss Turner in there as well. I think there are more options than some think. What do you think it would take then?

 

[BBert]

Wow. Long post.

Allen Crabbe and a late first isn't remotely worth a Philly lotto pick. Plus Philly likes their cheap draftees. Not gonna happen.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

Appreciate your hard work, but to be worth a conversation, I think you have to do better than "Layman/Aminu/Harkless/Leonard for DMC." That is really a non-starter to a serious discussion.

You lasted that long? He lost me at crabbe for a top 4 pick.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Wow. Long post.

Allen Crabbe and a late first isn't remotely worth a Philly lotto pick. Plus Philly likes their cheap draftees. Not gonna happen.

You lasted that long? He lost me at crabbe for a top 4 pick.

Then bump it up. Whats it gonna take to get into the Lotto? I think its our best move long term. Do yuo think so? If not then got it, but if so, then how do we get there without going into full on tank? Dame and Stotts will never allow a tank, so we need to trade up. Whats it gonna take?

Keep in mind many trades are not dollar for dollar value, as there are other factors involved. Shedding salary, players of need vs players available, etc. A players status within the organization may have them looking to dump on the cheap. Many things can drive a trade. Not JUST value of player skills.

 

[riverman]

I expect a trade but probably not for the lottery...I want to keep the Cleveland 1st round pick if we can. I think we're trying to showcase some guys we want to trade but they're not helping their value....if there's a trade, I think it'll involve multiple players...bench guys and I think we'll get back guys the way we got Mo...Neil's eye for untapped value in underused players...I think Vonleh and Layman have bright futures but are a year away from being impact guys

 

[Orion Bailey]

I expect a trade but probably not for the lottery...I want to keep the Cleveland 1st round pick if we can. I think we're trying to showcase some guys we want to trade but they're not helping their value....if there's a trade, I think it'll involve multiple players...bench guys and I think we'll get back guys the way we got Mo...Neil's eye for untapped value in underused players...I think Vonleh and Layman have bright futures but are a year away from being impact guys

The Cleveland isn't going to be a top ten though. You wouldn't prefer to trade up into the top 5 if possible? Have you taken a hard look at the upcoming draftees? There are several players that are said to have extremely high upsides with star potential and they are mostly in positions of need for us. One of them is said to have potential to be the next Tim Duncan.
I;m not sure if I want to have a couple of late round lottery picks that will be players with decent potential, but need grooming and wont make an impact for another couple years.
I say if we are going to want to work this upcoming draft, then lets go all in on it.

Where is @Tunchi
He should back this up. Lol.
Again. I do NOT want to tank. I think making the playoffs and still being able to trade for a lotto pick would be the best of both worlds. And right now, trading Crabbe and Cleve 1st and what Napier maybe then? whatever it takes to get a good lotto pick doesn't really impact this team pushing for the playoffs this year, because Crabbe isn't producing anyhow. BNM brought up that Phi is also $8 mill under, so they would have to eat $8 mill if they don't make a move, so Really Crabbe's contract and a draft pick isn't that bad of a deal, when its also a player of need that might help revitalize his potential with a starting spot.
It answers alot of needs for both teams.

Again, I say with this looking like the draft of drafts for a while, we should be going all in for one of the top tiers. Not scratching at the outlying leftovers.

 

[BonesJones]

I suggested trading Crabbe to the Sixers just to get the right to swap our pick and the Lakers pick.

People said it wasn't enough.

We definitely won't get a top 4 pick out of it. Crabbe+29th pick doesn't equal Ayton/Bamba/Porter

 

[BonesJones]

Have you taken a hard look at the upcoming draftees? There are several players that are said to have extremely high upsides with star potential and they are mostly in positions of need for us. One of them is said to have potential to be the next Tim Duncan.

If that's the case why would the Sixers essentially trade a hall of fame level player for Allen Crabbe?

 

[Orion Bailey]

I suggested trading Crabbe to the Sixers just to get the right to swap our pick and the Lakers pick.

People said it wasn't enough.

We definitely won't get a top 4 pick out of it. Crabbe+29th pick doesn't equal Ayton/Bamba/Porter

What does T?

I think yes on paper for numbers and contract size, it looks lopsided. But when you add in the two teams needs, it seems to be closer to even. So Crabbe/2018 Cle pick and....Harkless, and we try to go all in for Porter, looking to be the next SF of the future?

 

[Orion Bailey]

If that's the case why would the Sixers essentially trade a hall of fame level player for Allen Crabbe?

Good point, but they are stacked in that position already, so something needs to give there. Noel was the talk for a while. Still is for some, but the more I think about it the more I don't want another one way payer. We need a solid two way player. Even if it has to be drafted.

 

[Tunchi]

The Cleveland isn't going to be a top ten though. You wouldn't prefer to trade up into the top 5 if possible? Have you taken a hard look at the upcoming draftees? There are several players that are said to have extremely high upsides with star potential and they are mostly in positions of need for us. One of them is said to have potential to be the next Tim Duncan.
I;m not sure if I want to have a couple of late round lottery picks that will be players with decent potential, but need grooming and wont make an impact for another couple years.
I say if we are going to want to work this upcoming draft, then lets go all in on it.

Where is @Tunchi
He should back this up. Lol.
Again. I do NOT want to tank. I think making the playoffs and still being able to trade for a lotto pick would be the best of both worlds. And right now, trading Crabbe and Cleve 1st and what Napier maybe then? whatever it takes to get a good lotto pick doesn't really impact this team pushing for the playoffs this year, because Crabbe isn't producing anyhow. BNM brought up that Phi is also $8 mill under, so they would have to eat $8 mill if they don't make a move, so Really Crabbe's contract and a draft pick isn't that bad of a deal, when its also a player of need that might help revitalize his potential with a starting spot.
It answers alot of needs for both teams.

Again, I say with this looking like the draft of drafts for a while, we should be going all in for one of the top tiers. Not scratching at the outlying leftovers.

We'll be fine. We have to make the lottery this year though. We wasted a lot of time last year but it's ok hopefully we do this quickly. Jump in the lottery this year then we have two options trade it with an existing player or have Olshey make the pick. We all know he's trash during free agency but drafting is where his talent is.

I'm excited for this draft hopefully this is 2012, 2013 type of magic (drafting Lillard and Cj) and in 2 years we start making a run

 

[Orion Bailey]

We'll be fine. We have to make the lottery this year though. We wasted a lot of time last year but it's ok hopefully we do this quickly. Jump in the lottery this year then we have two options trade it with an existing player or have Olshey make the pick. We all know he's trash during free agency but drafting is where his talent is.

I'm excited for this draft hopefully this is 2012, 2013 type of magic (drafting Lillard and Cj) and in 2 years we start making a run

I'm actually with you. Now if I can just get you to not allow tanking as an option to enter the lotto. lol.

 

[HailBlazers]

Thoughts?

TLDR but yes we need to be thinking longer term. The window to even win a championship won't be open for anyone the next coming years sans a couple super teams.

 

[BonesJones]

Good point, but they are stacked in that position already, so something needs to give there. Noel was the talk for a while. Still is for some, but the more I think about it the more I don't want another one way payer. We need a solid two way player. Even if it has to be drafted.

Needs don't play that big a factor. That's like saying we need a defensive C, so we trade McCollum for Bismack Biyombo...

1.) They will be able to get a lot more for that pick.
2.) They could always trade Okafor, Noel, and even Embiid.
3.) They could offer Noel and we'd accept it immediately.

 

[Strenuus]

I like you, orion... But how in the world can you write crabbe and cle 1st for phi lottery pick and go "nah, theh wouldnt laugh me off the phone." crabbe has such little value right now. Lol.

 

[BBert]

Then bump it up. Whats it gonna take to get into the Lotto? I think its our best move long term. Do yuo think so? If not then got it, but if so, then how do we get there without going into full on tank? Dame and Stotts will never allow a tank, so we need to trade up. Whats it gonna take?

Keep in mind many trades are not dollar for dollar value, as there are other factors involved. Shedding salary, players of need vs players available, etc. A players status within the organization may have them looking to dump on the cheap. Many things can drive a trade. Not JUST value of player skills.

I'd love a lottery pick without tanking. Make it happen Neil!

 

[BBert]

TLDR but yes we need to be thinking longer term. The window to even win a championship won't be open for anyone the next coming years sans a couple super teams.

Definitely no reason to do anything drastic in the short term.

 

[Sarni]

We'll be fine. We have to make the lottery this year though. We wasted a lot of time last year but it's ok hopefully we do this quickly. Jump in the lottery this year then we have two options trade it with an existing player or have Olshey make the pick. We all know he's trash during free agency but drafting is where his talent is.

I'm excited for this draft hopefully this is 2012, 2013 type of magic (drafting Lillard and Cj) and in 2 years we start making a run

Yep that 14th pick in the draft over 17th we would otherwise get is essential. Feck the playoffs atmosphere and experience. We need to move 3-4 places higher.

 

[Nikolokolus]

@Orion Bailey I believe grief counselors call this the "bargaining phase."

 

[BlayZa]

we mistakenly thought we'd signed, resigned and stockpiled assets (depending on who you ask)

unfortunately their value has plummeted to such a degree, i dont think we'd honestly be able to move any of turner/crabbe/meyers for anything which we need.
unless it gets turned around something chronic, we're stuck with these guys. and my god that's a depressing thought.

we're gonna need to find some team more desperate than us, with a talent trade to fix our weak points AND who is willing to take our garbage in return.

or we move CJ.

but even then, keeping this clusterfuck of signings is a fate worse than being in the lottery, we're gonna be too bad to do good, and just good enough to not get a decent pick.
fuck the middle.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Hmmm Still out of my mind on this or a bit more of a possibility considering recent play/events?

 

[BonesJones]

Id take on a big, long contact by trading Festus in order to get a 1st.