(tl;dr material) Team Situations Entering Draft/FA

[BrianFromWA]

(NOTE: This is a working document. Let me know if you see errors. I'll fix specific options later on, and give scenarios for each team iin a future part. Please let me know if there's something else you'd like to see with these)

I keep hearing "how many teams have (X amount) of cap space?" "Who needs a Center?" "What draft picks does Team Y have?"

So, here's Part Two of the “Summer Decisions, 2013-Style” Series. With this one I’ll look a bit more into Free Agency and how teams are positioned to enter it.

Some basic ground rules:
1) While negotiations can start July 1, players cannot be signed until 12:01am EST on July 10.
2) “Cap Number” is the sum of on-the-books contracts (like Aldridge, Lillard, etc.), cap holds (like Hickson or Maynor, or 2012 Nic Batum), stashed overseas 1st-round picks (like Fran Vasquez and Petteri Koponen), 2013 1st-round picks and roster holds for each space available under 12. So the Blazers have 8 contracts on the books, a potential for two more in Maynor and Hickson, a 2013 first-round pick, and no overseas stashes—for a total of at least one, and maybe three, roster holds of $490k apiece.
3) For the purposes of this exercise, I am not counting any options (unless specifically stated in the team’s post). I don’t care if it’s a no-brainer that Player X will use his ETO, or Player Y’s non-guaranteed contract will be cut. I will, however, highlight who has an option and what the option amount is.
4) The salary cap and luxury tax lines were fixed for the 2011-12 and 2012-13 season at $58.044M and $70.307M, respectively. That means the “apron” (which will come into play later) was set at $74.307M—it’s always $4M more than the luxury tax line. For the purposes of these projections, I’m using $60M as the tax line and $72.6M as the tax line, which makes $76.6M the new “apron”.
5) I am using the lottery order as the draft order for purposes of calculating roster holds and cap number. If the lottery doesn’t go in order I’ll revise later.
6) Free Agent list came from ESPN’s NBA Free Agents Page (accessed 4/23), salary info from StoryTeller’s Contracts site, draft order and lotto probabilities from ESPN.com, and draft pick salary numbers from Hoopsworld. Trade exceptions from HoopsRumors.
7) The Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception is a contract of up to 4 years that starts at $5.15M. The Taxpayer MLE is a contract up to 3 years that starts at $3.183M and cannot be used if you've done a sign-and-trade. The Room Exception MLE is a contract of up to two years starting at $2.652M.

Some fun facts before we begin:
1) K*be takes up more cap space than DET’s whole roster
2) ATL’s roster has a lower team cap number than the following: K*be, Dirk, Melo, Amar’e, Joe Johnson, P.Gasol, Bosh, LBJ, Wade
3) The “Luxury Tax” isn’t in the CBA. It’s called a “team payment” if you’re over the “tax” line.

The "We happy? Oh yeah, we happy."-Division
The teams that are currently going to be under the tax line, draft positions , their number of roster spots needed to fill (counting draft picks), and players with options. Potential Restricted Free Agents are noted as well. NOTE: If a Qualifying Offer is not made to an eligible player, the player will become an Unrestricted Free Agent.
These teams can use their cap space as well as the Room Exception and Veteran Minimum Exceptions. They cannot use the non-Taxpayer or Taxpayer MLE or the BAE.
1) ATL: $35.4M in space, #17 and #18 pick, 7 roster slots to fill. Options: Stevenson, Mack, Scott. RFAs Ivan Johnson, Jeff Teague. Trade exceptions available: $762,195; $1,375,000; $1,100,000
2) UTH: $28.4M in space, #14 and #21 picks, 4 roster slots to fill. Options: Murphy, McNeil, Marvin Williams. No RFAs
3) DET: $26.4M in space, #7 pick, 5 roster slots to fill. Options: Stuckey, Villanueva, Kravstov, English. No RFAs.
4) CLE: $21.3M in space, #3 and #19 picks, 4 roster slots to fill. Options: Speights, Miles, Jones, Quinn. RFAs Omri Casspi, Wayne Ellington.
5) NOH: $20.7M in space, #5 pick, 6 roster slots to fill. Options: R. Lopez, Jason Smith and 4 reserves. No RFAs.
6) SAS: $18.4M in space, #28 pick, 4 roster slots to fill. Options: Diaw, Bonner , Mills. RFA Gary Neal.
7) MIL: $16.0M in space, #15 pick, 4 roster slots to fill. Options: Ellis, Ayon. RFA Brandon Jennings. Trade Exceptions: $1,482,000; $1,182,200; $650,000.
8) SAC: $14.7M in space, #6 pick, 3 roster slots to fill. Options: Isaiah Thomas. RFA Toney Douglas, Tyreke Evans, James Johnson.
9) LAC: $14.0M in space, #25 pick, 5 roster slots to fill. Options: Green, Summers. No RFAs. Trade Exception: $1,622,617 (expires 7/11/13)
10) CHA: $13.9M in space, #2 pick, 4 roster slots to fill. Options: Adrien, Gordon. RFAs Gerald Henderson, Byron Mullens. Trade Exceptions: $850,000
11) POR: $13.4M in space, #10 pick, 3 roster slots to fill. Options: Pavlovic. RFA Maynor.
12) PHX: $12.9M in space, #4 and #30 pick, 1 roster slot to fill. Options: Haddadi, Tucker, Brown. RFA Diante Garrett.
13) DAL: $12.6M in space, #13 pick, 7 roster slots to fill. Options: Marion, Mayo, James. RFA Rodrigue Beaubois and Darren Collison.
14) HOU: $12.4M in space, no pick, 5 roster slots to fill. Options: Delfino, Brooks, Parsons, others. No RFAs.
15) PHI: $11.7M in space, #11 pick, 4 roster slots to fill. Options: Brown, Justin Holiday. RFA Charles Jenkins.
16) IND: $8.5M in space, #23 pick, 3 roster slots to fill. Options: Stephenson. RFA Ben and Tyler Hansbrough and Jeff Pendergraph.
17) ORL: $3.7M in space, #1 pick, 3 roster slots to fill. Options: Hedo, Harrington, O’Quinn, Moore. RFA DeQuan Jones. Trade Exceptions: $17,816,880; $1,500,000.
18) MIN: $1.1M in space, #9 and #26 pick, 3 roster slots to fill. Options: Kirilenko, Roy, Stiemsma, Cunningham, Chris Johnson, Gelebale. RFA Chase Budinger, Nikola Pekovic.

The "Big Lebowski" Division ("OVER THE LINE!")
The teams that are going to be between the tax line and the apron. These teams can use the Non-Taxpayer MLE OR Bi-annual Exception (but not both) and Veteran Minimum Exceptions. Additionally, if a team uses its non-Taxpayer MLE or BAE, the apron becomes a hard cap that no exception can be used to go over.
1) WAS: $61.2M cap number, #8 pick, 4 roster slots to fill. Options: Okafor, Ariza. RFA Garrett Temple. Trade Exceptions: $1,703,491; $1,198,680.
2) MEM: $62.8M cap number, no pick, 4 roster slots to fill. Options: Bayless. RFA Austin Daye, Jon Leuer, Dexter Pittman. Trade Exceptions: $7,489,453; $2,083,042; $1,300,000; $1,241,923; $1,000,000.
3) OKC: $67.2M cap number, #29 pick, 2 roster slots to fill. Options: Thabeet, Orton, Liggins. No RFA. Trade Exceptions: $2,445,480; $2,338,721.
4) DEN: $69.3M cap number, #27 pick, 1 roster slot to fill. Options: Miller, Iguodala. RFA Timofey Mozgov, Julvan Stone.


Special Category: Even though TOR, BOS and GSW are below the apron now, the use of either the taxpayer or non-taxpayer MLE is based upon being under or over the apron AFTER YOU USE IT. So none of these teams could use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE, because the $5.15M would take them over the $76.6M projected apron. BOS and GSW can go over the apron, however, to use the Taxpayer MLE.

1) TOR: $71.5M cap number, #12 pick, 4 roster slots to fill. Options: Lowry, Kleiza, Gray, Lucas. No RFAs.
2) BOS: $74.9M cap number, #16 pick, 1 roster slot to fill. Optionsierce, White, Shav Randolph, Williams. No RFAs.
3) GSW: $75.5M cap number, no pick, 5 roster slots to fill. Options: Biedrins, Rush, Landry. No RFAs. Trade Exceptions: $762,195; $762,195

The "I'm Like Superfly TNT!!" Redlining RaceCar Division
The teams that are going to be above the apron: These teams may only use the Taxpayer MLE and Veteran Minimum Exceptions.
1) CHI: $76.8M cap number, #20 pick, 3 roster slots to fill. Options: Hamilton, Thomas. No RFAs. Trade Exception: $5,000,000.
2) NYK: $80.2M cap number, #24 pick, 3 roster slots to fill. Options: JR Smith, White. RFA Chris Copeland, Pablo Prigioni. Trade Exception: $854,389.
3) LAL: $81.0M cap number, no pick, 7 roster slots to fill. Options: Metta, Duhon, Meeks. RFA Devin Ebanks, Andrew Goudelock, Darius Morris, Robert Sacre. Trade Exception: $1,174,080
4) BKN: $87.1M cap number, #22 pick, 1 roster slot to fill. Options: Watson. No RFAs.
5) MIA: $87.7M cap number, no pick, 4 roster slots to fill. Options: Allen, Jones, Lewis, Chalmers, Varnado. No RFAs. Trade Exception: $854,389.

 

[BrianFromWA]

So the highest trade exceptions available are:

1. ORL: $17,816,880
2. CHI: $5,000,000
3. MEM: $7,489,453/$2,083,042
4. OKC: $2,445,480/$2,338,721

 

[Denny Crane]

When do the trade exceptions expire?

 

[BrianFromWA]

When do the trade exceptions expire?

I can put those in, but these all will be good through the FA period (a mix of last summer's exceptions and the trade deadline). If they weren't going to be good through July, I placed a date (such as the Clippers' 1.6M one)

 

[Denny Crane]

I'm trying to figure out their use at this point. I don't think, for example, an exception can be used to acquire a player via S&T, right?

 

[BrianFromWA]

Sure you can. Actually, you can think of a Trade Exception almost as "cap space", but only for trades. You can't sign a FA with one, but you can take an S&T one. It's specifically called out through "non-simultaneous" trade portions of the Coon CBA FAQ.

Teams cannot use trade exceptions to sign free agents; they can be used only to acquire existing contracts from other teams. However, a team can acquire a free agent using a trade exception if he is signed by his prior team and traded in a sign-and-trade transaction (see question number 89

For example, the Magic can accept a player who's been signed to up to their trade exception + 100k.

 

[Denny Crane]

Right

But if they expire July 1 and you can't S&T a guy until after July 1, then how do you use one in a S&T?

 

[Denny Crane]

Also, do your figures include the options on players? For example, you have Hamilton at $5M for the Bulls. I think they're going to pay him only the $1M guaranteed him and let him walk. How does that affect the numbers?

 

[BrianFromWA]

I said through July. If they expired July 1, that would mean that someone was traded during the moratorium last year, which can't happen.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Also, do your figures include the options on players? For example, you have Hamilton at $5M for the Bulls. I think they're going to pay him only the $1M guaranteed him and let him walk. How does that affect the numbers?

As a ground rule, I didn't use options for the numbers. I'm still studying a bunch of those (for instance, if he's only guaranteed for 1M, then it would subtract 4M) and will place those in in a more complete team profile. But this has the first batch of info (it's "Part Two" of the series...not the whole durned thing. )

 

[Denny Crane]

I appreciate the work. It's quite valuable. I'm trying to grok it is all.

 

[illmatic99]

Wow Spurs are primed to get a big name. Why isn't SA mentioned in the Howard sweepstakes while Houston and Dallas always are?

 

[BrianFromWA]

Just a guess, but I think that they know a big portion will be taken up with Ginobili (even if he gives a hometown discount). However, Bonner's contract is partially-guaranteed, and Diaw could opt out. There's another 7M or so right there.

 

[Boise Blazer]

So ATL has a crap load of money and a destination that cant really be very attractive given its current roster, history and fan base. It should be interesting to see what they can do with their cap space.

 

[Eastoff]

Brian. Thank you for your military service. Thank you for your fandom service. You are a good person, with a lot of drive.

 

[illmatic99]

So ATL has a crap load of money and a destination that cant really be very attractive given its current roster, history and fan base. It should be interesting to see what they can do with their cap space.

They have some of the worst fan support in the league, and it was the same when they were winning. And their current roster is pretty much just Horford and Teague. I don't really see their appeal outside of being warm and having a more uh diverse population.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

They have some of the worst fan support in the league, and it was the same when they were winning. And their current roster is pretty much just Horford and Teague. I don't really see their appeal outside of being warm and having a more uh diverse population.

Really the appeal is if Dwight Howard gets there. Doubt he will but he is from there and loves the area. If he goes then you get other guys jumping on board.

 

[Mediocre Man]

So if I am reading that correctly, teams that might be good fits to trade a player for cap relief would be Toronto, Denver, Washington and maybe Memphis....given their smaller market stature?

 

[illmatic99]

Washington, Toronto, and even Denver are not really small markets.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Washington, Toronto, and even Denver are not really small markets.

I am so fucking tired of this.


I am done posting for a while. you guys finally broke me.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

I am so fucking tired of this.


I am done posting for a while. you guys finally broke me.

Don't go MM. I am enjoying your posts even if I disagree with some.

 

[magnifier661]

When do the trade exceptions expire?

Wouldn't it be just a year from the trade? So if some were traded by this year's trade deadline, they expire next year's trade deadline. If some were traded last summer, then this summer they would expire. This is what I believe, I really don't know for sure.

 

[magnifier661]

Washington, Toronto, and even Denver are not really small markets.

Denver is a small market.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denver

They only have a population of 619k

Whereas Portland's population is 2.29 million

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portland_metropolitan_area

 

[magnifier661]

I am so fucking tired of this.


I am done posting for a while. you guys finally broke me.

Seriously you need to get back to taking meds. Why does that bother you so much? I've heard worse directed towards you and it didn't phase you, yet this little disagreement gets you "fed up"?

 

[Pinwheel1]

They have some of the worst fan support in the league, and it was the same when they were winning. And their current roster is pretty much just Horford and Teague. I don't really see their appeal outside of being warm and having a more uh diverse population.

This is true and a little ironic when you consider the recent article in the Oregonian about one of the reasons why Portland is not a top destination for NBA players.

Here you have Atlanta, one of the top destinations for young black college students, as well as young black professionals from across the country, yet they are not a top destination for FA's in the NBA. Players love to live there and they like to spend their summers their working out, but none-the-less because of the lack of fan support in the arena, it remains an average-poor destination.

Players like to play in front of packed arenas, regardless of the fan's skin color.

 

[illmatic99]

I am so fucking tired of this.


I am done posting for a while. you guys finally broke me.

???

 

[Nate4Prez]

Denver is a small market.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denver

They only have a population of 619k

Whereas Portland's population is 2.29 million

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portland_metropolitan_area

That is not really a fair comparison. You compared Denver's city population to Portland's metro population.

If you did that backward the city of Portland has a population of 583k and Denver metro has a population of 2.88 million.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portland,_Oregon
http://www.metrodenver.org/metro-denver-economy/forecasts

 

[BrianFromWA]

So if I am reading that correctly, teams that might be good fits to trade a player for cap relief would be Toronto, Denver, Washington and maybe Memphis....given their smaller market stature?

I'd look TOR, BOS, GSW and CHI, but for slightly different reasons. CHI's owners aren't known for being profligate spenders (Denny can correct me if I'm way off-base), and I think that they'd make a deal in order to stay below the apron and maintain flexibility while staying in the first tier (0-5M above the line) of tax increments. The flexibility aspect is similar for GSW and BOS, while TOR would be a great place to try to pluck a 2015 or 2017 first to give them some cap savings if our big FA plans didn't pan out.

 

[Boise Blazer]

BrainFromWa, just curious now that you have done all this great work for us (thanks again) what would be your ideal offseason pick ups for the Blazers. Im sure you have posted it elsewhere but given all this great info I would like to see it in this thread.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Honestly, that stuff comes at the end. I have some ideas that I've tossed around, but I'll have a thread at some point that summarizes what I think are the best options and what I'd take.

Quick take (and I reserve my right to change this stuff ): moving up in draft if required for a stud SG (probably Oladipo, but still looking) or Noel if you can pull it off keeping LMA and Lillard, bringing over Papanikolou, trying to get Maynor with the room exception, and either getting a needle-moving big or looking at what LMA would bring back in trade. It's not time to panic and give him away, but we are only 20 months away from the last time we can trade him for something without him walking away for nothing. I think it's worth exploring. But I haven't done the analysis to see what's even do-able, much less realistic or probable.