Politics Trump Leading in Latest NYT Poll

[e_blazer]

This morning’s NYT newsletters has this scary message from Nate Cohn: Trump is leading in 5 of the 6 states most likely to decide the election. The problem is Biden’s unpopularity.

“There aren’t many signs of his old electoral strength in a new set of New York Times/Siena College polls of the six states likely to decide the presidency. Trump leads Biden in five of the six states — Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Michigan — which would likely be enough to give him the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Biden leads in the sixth state, Wisconsin.

Trump leads by at least four percentage points in each of the other five states:

New York Times/Siena College polls
The striking results seem to be more a reflection of Biden’s weakness than Trump’s strength.”

Is there any chance the Dems could wake up and select someone new. I mean, I’d vote for a corpse over Trump, but Joe’s not that far off from that.

 

[julius]

Polls also indicated that Hillary was going to win in 16, and that there was going to be a "red wave" in 22.

Most polls are done with landlines and usually their targets are older, more conservative voters.

 

[e_blazer]

Polls also indicated that Hillary was going to win in 16, and that there was going to be a "red wave" in 22.

Most polls are done with landlines and usually their targets are older, more conservative voters.

Cohn certainly wasn’t saying that this poll, a year in advance of the election, is anything more than an indicator of where things stand right now. That being said, there’s no getting around the fact that Joe is old and has failed to deliver much in the way of a popular vision for the direction of the country. This poll, in my view, is simply a warning that a relative small number of states will likely swing the election and Joe’s not doing well in most of them. If he’s going to be the candidate, then he better have a plan to change that.

 

[Natebishop3]

Does anyone under 60 answer the phone when an unknown call comes in?

 

[julius]

Cohn certainly wasn’t saying that this poll, a year in advance of the election, is anything more than an indicator of where things stand right now. That being said, there’s no getting around the fact that Joe is old and has failed to deliver much in the way of a popular vision for the direction of the country. This poll, in my view, is simply a warning that a relative small number of states will likely swing the election and Joe’s not doing well in most of them. If he’s going to be the candidate, then he better have a plan to change that.

Not saying that Joe delivered great (tho most people just repeat the line of "he didn't deliver anything he promised" without actually knowing wtf they're talking about (not saying you)), but I'd argue that we *know* what Trump did, and the *ONLY* people who say they will vote for him are people still head deep in the cult.

There is not a single actual undecided voter who looks at the two of them and goes "hm, you know....maybe Trump did handle things better". Those who think he did, are those who still think he won the 2020 election.

PLUS, altho historically they've been a weaker voting base, voters under 35 are overwhelmingly against the GOP and the Orange Jump Suit.

And they never get called to take part in polls (I doubt anyone here actually really knows someone who has been polled who is under the age of 65).

 

[GriLtCheeZ]

It's great the Democrats are taking defeating fascism seriously by once again running the reanimated corpse of Joe Biden.

 

[e_blazer]

It's great the Democrats are taking defeating fascism seriously by once again running the reanimated corpse of Joe Biden.

Well, that sums up the major concern in a single sentence.

 

[riverman]

I've pretty much lost faith in sensible govt with the fascists being so popular. Trump has yet to be held truly accountable but after his trials he shouldn't be leading anyone. Joe Biden needs to step aside but I don't think he will. The job doesn't attract talent.

 

[crandc]

Head of CNN said Trump is bad for the country but good for ratings. Biden has quite a list of accomplishments but he is not colorful. He's boring. He is like the coworker no one notices who just gets shit done. So the media talks about him being "animated corpse". He is old. He stutters. Also Hunter's laptop. Because they get better ratings and sell books with Trump around.

 

[e_blazer]

Head of CNN said Trump is bad for the country but good for ratings. Biden has quite a list of accomplishments but he is not colorful. He's boring. He is like the coworker no one notices who just gets shit done. So the media talks about him being "animated corpse". He is old. He stutters. Also Hunter's laptop. Because they get better ratings and sell books with Trump around.

As a human being, a politician, and by virtually any ethical measure, Joe should beat Trump in a landslide. He will in every Blue state. He’ll probably win the popular vote. None of that matters as far as beating Trump. He’s failing so far in the crucial swing states. Maybe he can turn that around, but it’s far from certain. The question should be whether there are Democratic candidates who would be better to win those states.

 

[crandc]

But reality a sitting first term president is virtually certain to be nominated.

 

[Voodoo]

I find this ironic, boomers listen to Fox and think Biden is incredibly effective in pushing all sorts of liberal agendas while simultaneously being senile. While millennials and Gen z listen to carefully curated feeds that talk about how ineffective Biden is and how he’s not getting anything done. As a result boomers don’t like him because he’s too liberal, and younger generations don’t like him because he’s too conservative and ineffective.

As a result he’s unpopular with boomers because he’s not on Fox whining and white grievances, and he’s unpopular with young people because they’re naive and expect TikTok instant gratification. I suspect as the election gets closer and it’s truly Biden v Trump the rematch, Biden will gain significantly in the polls as reality will set in with liberals.

As for what Biden has done? He’s shown he actually gets things done when there’s a congress that is willing to work with him. He got a massive green investment bill thru while raising taxes on corporations, and also go thru a massive infrastructure bill. Both of these things will have long term effects on the country that will take close to a decade before we start to truly feel the effects significantly. He’s also done a pretty good job in reality of navigating the insane inflation and other economic issues going on.

This while pushing the largest NATO expansion thru in like 70 years, and navigating a whole host of crazy international issues hitting all at once. The guy really doesn’t get enough credit for how his administration has handled everything going on while having to deal with having one handed tied behind his back by the lunatics like Matt Gaetz who just want to burn it all down.

Anyone who is unhappy with Biden aught to really reflect on where we are now, and where things would be if Trump were still in office with everything that had happened in the last 3 years. Remember 2020 and how insane it was? Yeah no thanks no interest in going back to that but then extending it for another 4 years.

 

[barfo]

I suspect as the election gets closer and it’s truly Biden v Trump the rematch, Biden will gain significantly in the polls as reality will set in with liberals.

That's what I think/hope as well, but I'm going to keep my options open by buying citizenship elsewhere.

barfo

 

[julius]

I find this ironic, boomers listen to Fox and think Biden is incredibly effective in pushing all sorts of liberal agendas while simultaneously being senile. While millennials and Gen z listen to carefully curated feeds that talk about how ineffective Biden is and how he’s not getting anything done. As a result boomers don’t like him because he’s too liberal, and younger generations don’t like him because he’s too conservative and ineffective.

As a result he’s unpopular with boomers because he’s not on Fox whining and white grievances, and he’s unpopular with young people because they’re naive and expect TikTok instant gratification. I suspect as the election gets closer and it’s truly Biden v Trump the rematch, Biden will gain significantly in the polls as reality will set in with liberals.

As for what Biden has done? He’s shown he actually gets things done when there’s a congress that is willing to work with him. He got a massive green investment bill thru while raising taxes on corporations, and also go thru a massive infrastructure bill. Both of these things will have long term effects on the country that will take close to a decade before we start to truly feel the effects significantly. He’s also done a pretty good job in reality of navigating the insane inflation and other economic issues going on.

This while pushing the largest NATO expansion thru in like 70 years, and navigating a whole host of crazy international issues hitting all at once. The guy really doesn’t get enough credit for how his administration has handled everything going on while having to deal with having one handed tied behind his back by the lunatics like Matt Gaetz who just want to burn it all down.

Anyone who is unhappy with Biden aught to really reflect on where we are now, and where things would be if Trump were still in office with everything that had happened in the last 3 years. Remember 2020 and how insane it was? Yeah no thanks no interest in going back to that but then extending it for another 4 years.

There's an insane amount of facts in this post. Tell @SlyPokerDog to take 50 out of petty cash and get you a gift card.

 

[crandc]

Read a breakdown on the poll and it is odd. LatinX voters trend Democratic by 20 to 30 points, but NY Times poll gives Biden only 8 point advantage. Trump won 6 and 8 percent of Black voters in his two races but Times has him winning 21%. Young voters who overwhelmingly support LGBTQ rights, legal abortion and climate action, supported Clinton by 30 points and Biden by 24 but supposedly only favor Biden this time by one point.
Not saying don't worry, Trump is desperate and Republicans prepared to cheat but not despair.

 

[julius]

Read a breakdown on the poll and it is odd. LatinX voters trend Democratic by 20 to 30 points, but NY Times poll gives Biden only 8 point advantage. Trump won 6 and 8 percent of Black voters in his two races but Times has him winning 21%. Young voters who overwhelmingly support LGBTQ rights, legal abortion and climate action, supported Clinton by 30 points and Biden by 24 but supposedly only favor Biden this time by one point.
Not saying don't worry, Trump is desperate and Republicans prepared to cheat but not despair.

It's almost as if they want to gas light voters and make them think they're in the majority.

 

[Hoopguru]

I do agree with David Axelrod....
Axelrod suggests Biden drop out of 2024 presidential race

To much at stake!

 

[Shaboid]

Is Harris still the best running mate? There no getting around Biden's age. Were something to happen is that who we'd want steering the ship?

I think he wins either way, just curious how much that would change the race.

 

[jonnyboy]

LatinX

Ironically, the contrived use of this made up word that Latinos HATE being called may have some effect on the negative trending for Democrats with that group.

 

[barfo]

Ironically, the contrived use of this made up word that Latinos HATE being called may have some effect on the negative trending for Democrats with that group.

So if Republicans started calling residents of Wyoming "WyominX", you'd vote Democratic?

barfo

 

[ehizzy3]

Is Harris still the best running mate? There no getting around Biden's age. Were something to happen is that who we'd want steering the ship?

I think he wins either way, just curious how much that would change the race.

it’s wide open for Newsome imo

 

[Shaboid]

it’s wide open for Newsome imo

Going from Governor of California to VP would be a demotion though, in my opinion. Newsome has 2028 in his sights, I think.

 

[crandc]

Newsom.
Funny no one asks if Republicans have anyone better than twice impeached four times indicted demented narcissist.

 

[Shaboid]

#NotMyGovernor

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Newsom.
Funny no one asks if Republicans have anyone better than twice impeached four times indicted demented narcissist.

Unfortunately, it doesn't matter. The cult is too strong.

 

[crandc]

Polls on fall of 2011 predicted Obama would lose. Suggested Democrats run someone else. His approval at all time low.

A year later....

 

[crandc]

Trump said, three times, he won all 50 states in 2020. Also he was being president in 2021.
Who is demented?

But Biden is old.