We are no longer a "Jump Shooting Team"

[magnifier661]

You have no idea how much this means to me as a fan. Look at OKC... They are a jump shotting team and when their shot isn't falling, they look really really bad.

It's nice that Aldridge is trying to post up and dominate. It's also nice that Batum, Matthews and Wallace are making extra effort to get to the rim. Yeah so they are missing lay-ups right now. I think that has more to do with getting back into shape and timing.

We aren't run and gun either; which is another HUGE plus. We are basically right in the middle. We run when we can, but are willing to take it inside on a half court set.

Just love the way we look right now.

 

[blazerboy30]

Do you have stats that show this?

 

[magnifier661]

Do you have stats that show this?

Show what?

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Show what?

That we are no longer a jump-shooting team.

 

[magnifier661]

That we are no longer a jump-shooting team.

Well it's an observation watching the games. Am I on crazy pills or something? Am I the only one that sees this?

 

[blazerboy30]

Well it's an observation watching the games. Am I on crazy pills or something? Am I the only one that sees this?

I'm still seeing a lot of jump shots. And considering it appears that LMA is getting deep less often and less FTs, I'm not sure we're actually less of a jump-shooting team that last year.

You could be right, I'm just curious if there is a significant change in some key related states compared with the last couple years.

 

[Rhal]

Well it's an observation watching the games. Am I on crazy pills or something? Am I the only one that sees this?

I think we are a jump shooting team but its different then what we used to be. The difference is that we are a jump shooting team that has the ability to slash and a reliable player in the post game.

 

[Rhal]

Double post.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

We shoot fewer crazy baseline threes than last season, but I feel like we're still shooting plenty of mid-range jump shots. LMA has been making money off his pick and pop 17-footers this season too (though as his legs get less heavy, he might get to work down low more).

There are places to get stats on inside versus mid-range versus long-range shooting. I just can't remember the URLs right now.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I see a ton of jump shots from the Blazers

 

[magnifier661]

I'm still seeing a lot of jump shots. And considering it appears that LMA is getting deep less often and less FTs, I'm not sure we're actually less of a jump-shooting team that last year.

You could be right, I'm just curious if there is a significant change in some key related states compared with the last couple years.

Maybe I should have rephrased it then. Their philosophy isn't to take a perimeter shot. There have been tons of "blown lay-ups", so their effort is there. You can see Nate is really trying to get closer to the basket. Once the turn-overs go down and timing is better, we will start making these lay-ups.

 

[HomerLovesKoolAid]

No stats to support it, but my feeling is that we are getting way more short-range looks, drives to the basket, and generally higher % shots.

 

[TripTango]

According to 82games.com (http://www.82games.com/index.htm), here's the number of jump shots we took over the past few seasons, as a percentage of total shots:

2011/2012: 66%
2010/2011: 71%
2009/2010: 69%
2008/2009: 66%
2007/2008: 65%

I think the quality of the jump shot taken is far more important than the quantity. If a decent shooter is wide open from 10 feet, I'm happy with that shot all day long. On the other hand, if it's a rushed shot among multiple defenders, it's very likely a wasted possession. I don't know of any good metrics for shot quality out there... Any ideas?

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Some stats: 19th in the league in 3PA (87 vs league average of 100) but 16th in percentage (.345, slightly above the league average of .338). We are 13th in FTAs (132 vs league average of 130), and 2nd in FT% (.818).

Tangental, not related: our opponents shoot only 26.3% from 3 point range. We're second in the league in that regard. Good perimeter defense with Matthews, Felton, Wallace, Batum all getting into people's faces out there.

 

[TripTango]

Just to include one more number in there, here's the same stats as before, along with the effective FG% for the jump shots:

2011/2012: 66%, .464
2010/2011: 71%, .437
2009/2010: 69%, .449
2008/2009: 66%, .465
2007/2008: 65%, .455

 

[magnifier661]

Just to include one more number in there, here's the same stats as before, along with the effective FG% for the jump shots:

2011/2012: 66%, .464
2010/2011: 71%, .437
2009/2010: 69%, .449
2008/2009: 66%, .465
2007/2008: 65%, .455

Now that is a sexy stat!

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Thanks for the 82games URL. One interesting stat: our best major minutes lineup is our starting lineups (win % of 75) In the last few years, that hasn't been the case. In 09-10 and 10-11, our 2nd most-used lineup was much better than our most-used lineup. 08-09 is the most similar in terms of performance.

EDIT: I see TripTango's stat line bears out the 08-09 similarity further.

 

[TripTango]

Thanks for the 82games URL. One interesting stat: our best major minutes lineup is our starting lineups (win % of 75) In the last few years, that hasn't been the case. In 09-10 and 10-11, our 2nd most-used lineup was much better than our most-used lineup. 08-09 is the most similar in terms of performance.

Interesting! Thoughts on analysis? Was that a result of Roy's declining knees?

 

[TripTango]

Interesting! Thoughts on analysis? Was that a result of Roy's declining knees?

Wait -- just checked those lineups. At least last year, the difference would seem to be Gerald Wallace.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Interesting! Thoughts on analysis? Was that a result of Roy's declining knees?

Last year seems to be integrating Wallace and a gimped Camby who couldn't hit water from a boat. 09/10 is probably a gimpy Roy trying too hard on his own before his knees gave out completely. In both cases, the team was pumped up to win for the gipper with their second lineup, and had surprises playing out of position (Bayless at SG in 09/10, and Aldridge at center in 10/11) that hadn't been scouted and really shined for a while.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Wait -- just checked those lineups. At least last year, the difference would seem to be Gerald Wallace.

Camby was also in bad shape when he played last season... bad bad shooting percentage that let teams double the hell out of LMA.

I'm most encouraged by the comparison to 08/09 simply because it was the last year I felt we had something approaching security in our lineup's health (sure, Oden was gone but who cares now about that).

 

[illmatic99]

Another link: http://www.hoopdata.com/teamshotlocs.aspx?yr=2012&type=pg

Check out the comparison from last year to this year:

More attempts at the rim, and more threes. Not surprising given that we have more possessions now, but the midrange is getting phased out.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Actually, fewer threes, more 16-23 feet (i.e., the Crawford/LaMarcus Range). Also note the huge jump in FG% at 16-23ft, and 10-15ft versus last year. Our makes on 10-15ft are more than last year despite fewer attempts. There isn't a huge drop in FG% between any particular range, either, which instills confidence in a shot from just about anywhere. Fewer lob dunks (thus the lower at rim FG%) but better short range, midrange, and long range 2P%.

 

[illmatic99]

Ya good call. I misread that.

 

[magnifier661]

Does this account for getting to the line? I know they don't count those shots as FGA; since they were fouled. If that's the case, than you gotta add those in the 3-9 feet. Well at least most of them. We are 5th in getting to the line.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Does this account for getting to the line? I know they don't count those shots as FGA; since they were fouled. If that's the case, than you gotta add those in the 3-9 feet. Well at least most of them. We are 5th in getting to the line.

Don't concern yourself so much with attempts; look at FG% and FGM. That's the real jewel of those two stat lines.

 

[blazerboy30]

Actually, fewer threes, more 16-23 feet (i.e., the Crawford/LaMarcus Range).

This stat actually concerns me. Shooting a 22-footer is the most inefficient shot in basketball. Like you mentioned, we're shooting it a higher percentage than last year, but we only have a sample of 5 games from this year. If that percentage starts to fall off and approach last year's, I think we could be in trouble.

 

[Boise Blazer]

Do those stats take into account where in the shot clock we are shooting. In other words contested and rushed shots at the buzzer vs the same 20 footer in the middle of the clock?

 

[BlazerCaravan]

This stat actually concerns me. Shooting a 22-footer is the most inefficient shot in basketball. Like you mentioned, we're shooting it a higher percentage than last year, but we only have a sample of 5 games from this year. If that percentage starts to fall off and approach last year's, I think we could be in trouble.

What about a bunch of 17-footers (which is more what this stat represents, since that's where Kurt Thomas and LMA spot up on the pick and pop)? Anecdotally, I remember a bunch of 17 footers but not many foot-on-the-line, one-step-inside-the-arc twos.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Do those stats take into account where in the shot clock we are shooting. In other words contested and rushed shots at the buzzer vs the same 20 footer in the middle of the clock?

There are separate stats for shot clock shots at 82games.com -- this year, 71% of our shots come before the shot clock is down to 8. Last year, it was 57%. In 09/10, it was 54%.

EDIT: Our FG% in each of the ranges 0-10 seconds used, 11-15, 16-20, and 21+ seconds used: 55%, 43.6%, 41.9%, 47.3%.