What's up with Batum?

[Rastapopoulos]

I'm in a quandary. I love Batum and I love the +/- stat. But sadly, they don't love each other:

Player 1 	Team 		+ 	- 	+/- 	Min 	 	G
M. Leonard 	Trail Blazers 	195 	-180 	15 	94:26 		10
L. Babbitt 	Trail Blazers 	234 	-220 	14 	111:27 		10
V. Claver 	Trail Blazers 	255 	-244 	11 	124:33 		10
R. Price 	Trail Blazers 	174 	-171 	3 	99:41 		10
W. Barton 	Trail Blazers 	223 	-220 	3 	110:46 		10
J. Freeland 	Trail Blazers 	123 	-124 	-1 	65:53 		10
L. Aldridge 	Trail Blazers 	800 	-810 	-10 	389:54 		10
N. Smith 	Trail Blazers 	166 	-177 	-11 	80:39 		10
S. Pavlovic 	Trail Blazers 	194 	-206 	-12 	105:59 		10
J. Jeffries 	Trail Blazers 	151 	-170 	-19 	87:02 		10
D. Lillard 	Trail Blazers 	798 	-823 	-25 	386:36 		10
W. Matthews 	Trail Blazers 	722 	-762 	-40 	359:30 		10
J. Hickson 	Trail Blazers 	622 	-672 	-50 	310:52 		10
N. Batum 	Trail Blazers 	767 	-827 	-60 	380:59 		10

What's the deal? Is Nate laughing somewhere saying "see? I was right just to park him in a corner"? Can somebody explain to me how it can look so much like he's hurting us on the court when actually he isn't? I do notice he's getting a LOT of turnovers these days - is that it?

 

[RR7]

Just my theory, but Batum is a better creator than he is a scorer, so when Stotts has his always leave a starter or two method working, it isn't a big help when Batum is one of the starters left in, because he tries to create opportunities for crappy teammates.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I think there's a couple of things that might explain it -- although I have nothing but a hunch to back this up -- Maybe it's that he's sort of the defacto point guard when Lillard sits and he's turning the ball over quite a bit; giving up possessions and leading to opponent's points. And not paying too much attention to Stotts' rotation, is Batum playing more with the reserves than the other starters?

 

[illmatic99]

I'm interested in seeing the 5 man units when he's out there. Maybe he plays with the scrubs the most out of any starter.

So many caveats one has to consider with this stat. It's why I hate it.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Tell me it isn't the dreaded "Cliffy effect" where a good defending role player forgets how to defend when he's given an expanded role. I have to say I haven't been impressed with Batum's defense recently.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Re: playing with the reserves: that doesn't explain his poor numbers, because right now the starters have worse numbers than the reserves!

 

[Nikolokolus]

Tell me it isn't the dreaded "Cliffy effect" where a good defending role player forgets how to defend when he's given an expanded role. I have to say I haven't been impressed with Batum's defense recently.

I think Nic's reputation has always been better than what he actually produces defensively. There's tons of potential, but the fact is, he hasn't been a historically good defensive player.

 

[e_blazer]

Re: playing with the reserves: that doesn't explain his poor numbers, because right now the starters have worse numbers than the reserves!

Actually, it does. The starters have worse numbers than the reserves because under Stotts' system there are almost always two starters on the floor with the reserves. The reserves suck on offense so badly that they can't score unless there are starters with them. This drags down the starters' stats vs. if they were only playing their minutes with other starters.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Re: playing with the reserves: that doesn't explain his poor numbers, because right now the starters have worse numbers than the reserves!

Sample size.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Actually, it does. The starters have worse numbers than the reserves because under Stotts' system there are almost always two starters on the floor with the reserves. The reserves suck on offense so badly that they can't score unless there are starters with them. This drags down the starters' stats vs. if they were only playing their minutes with other starters.

But think about it: that would explain why the starters stats would be dragged down a little. But the bench players' stats would still be WORSE because THEY WOULD BE THE ONES DRAGGING DOWN THE STATS.

Sample size.

...doesn't affect the claim that OVER THE PAST TEN GAMES the bench players have better +/-. Saying "sample size" is just saying "I'm not going to bother trying to explain this."

 

[Nikolokolus]

...doesn't affect the claim that OVER THE PAST TEN GAMES the bench players have better +/-. Saying "sample size" is just saying "I'm not going to bother trying to explain this."

I'm saying that a ten game sample size of +/- is almost completely meaningless. Hell even Jeff Sagarin and Wayne Winston -- who developed adjusted plus minus -- have stated that you need whole season's worth of data to make meaningful conclusions.

You want an explanation? It's noise, not signal.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

You want an explanation? It's noise, not signal.

...which is another way of saying "I don't have an explanation". If you think you can explain it, you call it signal. That's the only difference between "noise" and "signal".

Coach: "Hey _____, you've been stinking up the place these last ten games!"
Player: "Don't sweat it, coach, it's noise not signal."
Coach: "Oh well then! Never mind!"

 

[Nikolokolus]

...which is another way of saying "I don't have an explanation". If you think you can explain it, you call it signal. That's the only difference between "noise" and "signal".

Coach: "Hey _____, you've been stinking up the place these last ten games!"
Player: "Don't sweat it, coach, it's noise not signal."
Coach: "Oh well then! Never mind!"

You seem to be zeroing in on this one metric and looking for a way to use it to draw some meaningful conclusions from it. Have the starters collectively been stinking up the joint over the last ten games more than they were at other points in the season? If you want to talk about just one player over the past ten games -- Nicolas in this case -- then I don't think it's all that hard to draw the line between his ailing wrist and his reduced effectiveness. I don't need plus-minus to tell me that though.

 

[RoyToy]

Batum has certainly been having more bad games than good recently.

Always been a streaky player.