Which polls got it right

Welcome to our community

Be a part of something great, join today!

Register Log in
Further

Further

Guy
Joined
Sep 20, 2008
Messages
11,099
Likes
4,039
Points
113
Here is a list of the accuracy of the polls. I highlighted a few of the more interesting ones. link


1. PPP (D) - (A Democratic Pollster got it right)
1. Daily Kos
3. YouGov
4. Ipsos/Reuters*
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid*
12. ABC/WP*
13. Pew Research*
13. Hartford Courant/UConn*
15. CNN/ORC
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)*
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal*
28. AP/GfK


AP, which I would have assumed would be trustworthy, came in last place. Other losers wereRasmussen, Gallup and NPR. It also surprised me that the two most accurate ones came from two liberal sources, PPP and The Daily Kos.
 
Your link is to what some poster at HuffPost wrote/posted.

You didn't include this part:

“Most Accurate Polls - (this doesn’t inlude Prediction Models like Nate Silver and RCP which were even more accurate)"

RCP isn't a prediction model. It's simply an average of the most recent polls, no magic sauce involved.

Pretty amazing Silver went to all the work he did when all you had to do was average out all those polls - including Rasmussen, Gallup, and AP/GfK.
 
Stunning. Never in my life would I have thought the turnout model would be so close to 2008.

I am out out of touch with this country.
 
maxiep said:
Stunning. Never in my life would I have thought the turnout model would be so close to 2008.

I am out out of touch with this country.
Click to expand...

Your willingness to self-analyze is admirable. Soon you may even realize that Obama isn't that bad. I will keep an open mind when reading conservative points of view and who knows if I come around to your view. But I truly do think its a positive to keep oneself open to alternate views.
 
GOD said:
Your willingness to self-analyze is admirable. Soon you may even realize that Obama isn't that bad. I will keep an open mind when reading conservative points of view and who knows if I come around to your view. But I truly do think its a positive to keep oneself open to alternate views.
Click to expand...

I've known the President (albeit only casually) since the mid-90s. He is worse than you think.

As for my political position, I used to be left-of-center. However, in the course of my studies and my professional experience I didn't see the results from the policies I espoused. So I changed my point of view. It's not that I grew up a fan of the free market and see no other alternative; it's that I used to be a believer in a strong government role in society and have been proven wrong.

All of that being said, I am now in the distinct minority. I'm an American, and I'm not going anywhere, so I'll make the best of it. I won't go anywhere, but my days of creating jobs and wealth are over. It's all about protecting what I have and ensuring I pass on as much as I can to my son.
 
Denny Crane said:
Pretty amazing Silver went to all the work he did when all you had to do was average out all those polls - including Rasmussen, Gallup, and AP/GfK.
Click to expand...

It kept him from believing in nonsense like 'unskewed polls' which you fell for. So maybe careful analysis is actually good for something.

Also... he's getting paid to do it.

barfo
 
maxiep said:
It's all about protecting what I have and ensuring I pass on as much as I can to my son.
Click to expand...

You used to be on the left, yeah right. Now that you're on the verge of suicide, will you admit that that's your son and wife in the picture?
 
jlprk said:
You used to be on the left, yeah right. Now that you're on the verge of suicide, will you admit that that's your son and wife in the picture?
Click to expand...

Sorry to disappoint, but I'm happier and more at peace than I have been in ages.
 
Atta way to keep those chins up. You've got to keep living, if only to lead your son through this permanent Depression.
 
maxiep said:
I've known the President (albeit only casually) since the mid-90s. He is worse than you think.
Click to expand...

By worse, what do you mean? More liberal? A bigger asshole than the normal president? Actually a sadist warhawk masquerading as a peacenik?
 
BlazerCaravan said:
By worse, what do you mean? More liberal? A bigger asshole than the normal president? Actually a sadist warhawk masquerading as a peacenik?
Click to expand...

Intellectually lazy. Smug. Haughty. Utterly self-confident when he has no reason to be. And yes, much further to the left than he allows the public to see. Ask anyone at the Law School and you won't hear many nice things said about him.
 
maxiep said:
Intellectually lazy. Smug. Haughty. Utterly self-confident when he has no reason to be. And yes, much further to the left than he allows the public to see. Ask anyone at the Law School and you won't hear many nice things said about him.
Click to expand...

So he's an Apple user. :ghoti:

Seriously, it just sounds like he's a liberal with the pre-requisite level of narcissism to become president.
 
If someone is secretly more liberal than he lets on, becomes president, and governs as a moderate, does it matter if he's secretly more liberal?

barfo
 
BlazerCaravan said:
So he's an Apple user. :ghoti:

Seriously, it just sounds like he's a liberal with the pre-requisite level of narcissism to become president.
Click to expand...


:laugh: Repped.

In fairness, the U of C brought he and his wife on board not for their particular skills, but because they wanted to be in the Barack Obama business. He carried the U of C's water in Springfield. However, there were a lot of professors who worked their asses off, just to see a Lecturer do nothing but write his memoirs and teach the occasional Con Law class. Lots of bitterness.
 
Bitterness? In academia?

How shocking.

barfo
 
It seems to me the real metric was turnout. Everyone seemed to get the votes right (x% of dems vote for Obama, y% of Republicans vote for Romney, there is a z% spread for Romney among independents), the issue was the turnout model.

The Democrat-focused pollsters did much better because they believed the 2008 turnout was a trend where the Republican-focused pollster believed it was an anomaly.
 
The democrats are good at getting the vote out (sheep) for sure, the Republicans on the other hand suck at politics.
 
HailBlazers said:
The democrats are good at getting the vote out (sheep) for sure, the Republicans on the other hand suck at politics.
Click to expand...

Funny, I can remember when people said the opposite. After the swift boating, for instance.

barfo
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top