Why this draft is so important

[Rastapopoulos]

This draft is pivotal, because the Trail Blazers are at a turning point. Last season saw the catastrophic final demise of the "Big Three" dream. Now we have to get a new identity. We have a comparatively high draft pick in a supposedly killer draft. So whatever player is taken will be (rightly or wrongly) invested with a "future of the franchise" label. Not just by the fans, either. This is the first big move of our new GM. So if he fucks up, he's likely to stick with it subbornly, to the detriment of our growth. Think "We've got Sebastian Telfair so we don't need Chris Paul".

This is why I get a sick feeling in my stomach when I see things like "Neil Olshey has fallen in love with Austin Rivers and will take him at 6". Rivers is just flashy enough that you could think he'll amount to something, but the only thing he does is score (inefficiently). So you have to build your team around him. But he's not good enough. And then you realize a couple of years later and ship him out and suddenly you're shitty for five straight years. You know, like the Sacramento Kings, who KEEP doing it (first Kevin Martin, then Tyreke Evans...)

(Contrast this with the Pistons with Darko. They fucked up royally, but it wasn't at a pivotal moment for the franchise, so Darko could fade into irrelevance without taking the franchise with him.)

Jesus Christ, let this draft come already!

 

[Mediocre Man]

Great post. I think this is not only a really important draft, but a really important off season as well. I am going to give the benefit of the doubt to the Blazers until they screw it up (Smith over Faried)

 

[Blazinaway]

Great post. I think this is not only a really important draft, but a really important off season as well. I am going to give the benefit of the doubt to the Blazers until they screw it up (Smith over Faried)

lets hope us getting the #6 in the drawing is the beginning of a change of fortune! I think we are due

 

[Mediocre Man]

lets hope us getting the #6 in the drawing is the beginning of a change of fortune! I think we are due

Well, we already lost out on the coin flip for #5, so............

 

[Blazinaway]

Well, we already lost out on the coin flip for #5, so............

that's your old "dark side" gettin out! lol seriously though not losing the pick entirely this year vastly overshadows whehter it was 5 or 6

 

[Mediocre Man]

that's your old "dark side" gettin out! lol seriously though not losing the pick entirely this year vastly overshadows whehter it was 5 or 6

I agree. Just having some post meds fun


Speaking of which, I will have to up the dosage if Rivers or Soup Juggler are picked at #6 for us. Same goes for either Leonard or Zeller anywhere in the lottery

 

[Blazinaway]

I agree. Just having some post meds fun


Speaking of which, I will have to up the dosage if Rivers or Soup Juggler are picked at #6 for us. Same goes for either Leonard or Zeller anywhere in the lottery

keepem handy!

 

[crandc]

Exactly, I said something similar, lost in the mammoth draft thread, that this is the team's first really significant draft since 2006.

At this point, I just have to hope/trust that all the work the Blazers' brain trust is putting into this draft results in good choices. No, make that best possible choices.

 

[Blaze01]

This is why I get a sick feeling in my stomach when I see things like "Neil Olshey has fallen in love with Austin Rivers and will take him at 6". Rivers is just flashy enough that you could think he'll amount to something, but the only thing he does is score (inefficiently). So you have to build your team around him. But he's not good enough. And then you realize a couple of years later and ship him out and suddenly you're shitty for five straight years. You know, like the Sacramento Kings, who KEEP doing it (first Kevin Martin, then Tyreke Evans...)

Man, I totally disagree about Rivers....

I have to ask, why does Lillard get a pass for being a 4yr college player...and then Rivers gets blasted for his play as a freshman at a big time college where he was asked to do more than a freshman probably should, at age 19?

Lillard is one year younger than guys like Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook are right now...I mean think about that...Rivers is THREE years younger than Lillard...

So we over criticize Rivers and a vast majority of the players in this draft who are 2-3 years younger than a guy like Lillard is and whom many of have played in big time conferences and played in a lot of big time games, which Lillard really hasn't in his career....

Can Rivers not improve? He has 3 years on Lillard....

I mean I don't see Lillard stepping into the NBA and dominating as a rookie, especially as a PG....if he can even MAKE that transition and not fall by the wayside like so many other scoring guard into NBA PG experiments....does anyone really think\see Lillard coming in and dominating out of the gate?

I think the fact that Rivers is 3 years younger, and that he played at a big time college in big time games and was a highly (Top 2) regarded recruit coming out of HS...weighs far more positvely on his future as an NBA player than a guy who put up inflated numbers vs sub par competition as a 4th year junior....Lillard is one of the older players in this draft...he shoud look better than other players now, the question is will he look better 3 years from now?

 

[Tortimer]

I also disagree about Rivers. I would take a chance on Rivers but not at 6. I would try and trade our 11 and something to move up to 8 or 9 to get Rivers. I'm not real high on Lillard at 6 either. I would hope one of the other guys like Roberson or Drummand would fall to 6.

 

[Eastoff]

I agree. Just having some post meds fun


Speaking of which, I will have to up the dosage if Rivers or Soup Juggler are picked at #6 for us. Same goes for either Leonard or Zeller anywhere in the lottery

hahaha

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

I watched Rivers play several times and was not impressed at all. Take away one game where he hit a couple of big shots and I think he's a second round pick.

If we draft him, I think we say good-by to the franchise with another loser on the bench collecting first round salary taking up a roster spot that is better used elsewhere.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Now, as to the real reason for the thread....

I agree we have to hit it good with our #6 pick- be it a trade or if we keep it.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

BPA all the way!

If we take Lillard over Waiters or even Drummond I'm going to flip.

I'm putting my faith into the new management. Don't do anything stupid!

And please, lets try to muck up Houston's attempt at getting these two high picks kthnxbye.

 

[Mediocre Man]

BPA all the way!

If we take Lillard over Waiters or even Drummond I'm going to flip.

I'm putting my faith into the new management. Don't do anything stupid!

And please, lets try to muck up Houston's attempt at getting these two high picks kthnxbye.

Maybe in the minds that matter, Lillard is BPA?

I mean most of the mocks have him up there like he would be

 

[jlprk]

It's so simple. Spend #6 on a big man, not a guard. The risk is much lower.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Wages of Wins ranks Austin Rivers as second most overrated player in the draft (after Harrison Barnes):

2. Austin Rivers

Class: Freshman
Position: Shooting Guard
Draft Position: Lottery
Win Score (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule and Position): 3.1 (Just Awful)

Just for fun, here’s a list of college shooting guards who played at least 500 minutes and were more productive than Austin Rivers:

Aaron Graham, Alan Jones, Alex Marcotullio, Alzee Williams, Ameer Ali, Andre Dawkins, Andrew Ferry, Anson Winder, Anthony Downing, Anthony Marshall, Anthony Myers, Anthony Raffa, Antonio Barton, Arlon Harper, Austin Hollins, B.J. Young, Ben Brust, Ben Drayton, Bernard Thompson, Billy Baron, Blake Allen, Brady Heslip, Brandon Richardson, Brandon Thompson, Brandon Triche, Brandon Wheeless, Brandon Wood, Brayden Carlson, Brett Olson, Brian Bryant, Brian Walsh, Briante Weber, Bryce Cotton, Bryson Johnson, C.J. Harris, C.J. Williams, Cameron Ayers, Charles Abouo, Charles Winborne, Charlon Kloof, Chase Tapley, Chasson Randle, Chris Crawford, Chris McNealy, Chris Perez, Chris Smith, Christian Moon, Christophe Varidel, Christopher Tolson, Corey Maynard, Corey Wickware, Coron Williams, Corvonn Gaines, D.J. Brown, Dane Smith, D'Angelo Harrison, Daniel Mullings, Dantrell Thomas, Darian Norris, Darian Thibodeaux, Darien Brothers, Darion Rackley, Darius Johnson-Odom, Darius Miller, David Kyles, DaVonte Lacy, Daylon Guy, Deividas Dulkys, DeJuan Wright, Demetrius Ward, Derek Jackson, Deremy Geiger, Desmond Wade, Devoe Joseph, Dimitri Batten, Dion Dixon, Dion Waiters, D'Mitri Riggs, Dominic Cheek, Dominique Buckley, Dontay Hampton, Dorian Green, Doron Lamb, Doug Davis, Drew Hanlen, Dustin Ware, Dylan Royer, Dylon Cormier, Elijah Johnson, Eric Atkins, Eric Evans, Francisco Cruz, Frank Massenat, Gary Bell, Gary Browne, Gerardo Suero, Greg Gantt, Harold Washington, Hugh Greenwood, Ian Miller, Isaiah Sykes, Isaiah Wilkerson, Isiah Umipig, J.P. Kuhlman, J.R. Cadot, Jack Isenbarger, Jahenns Manigat, James Fields, James Kinney, Jared Cunningham, Jared Maree, Jarvis Jones, Jason Calliste, J'Covan Brown, Jean Harris, Jeff Early, Jeff Elorriaga, Jeff Jones, Jeremiah Kelly, Jeremy Ingram, Jeremy Lamb, Jerime Andersen, Jewuan Long, Joel Smith, John Jenkins, Johnny Dee, Johnny Moran, Jordair Jett, Jordan Burgason, Jorge Gutierrez, Joseph Young, Josh Johnson, Josh Jones, Justin Edwards, Justin Hawkins, Kaipo Sabas, Kannon Burrage, Karl Cochran, Keaton Cole, Keith Gabriel, Keith Pickens, Ken Cerroni, Kendall Anthony, Kendrix Brown, Kenny Boynton, Kevin Dukes, Kevin Foster, Kevin Foster, Kevin Pangos, Khalif Wyatt, Khris Middleton, Kyle Boswell, Kyle Fogg, LaMarcus Reed, Lamont Jones, Langston Galloway, Larry Anderson, Lasan Kromah, Lenzelle Smith Jr., London Giles, Lorne Merthie, Mackey McKnight, Malik Story, Marcos Knight, Mardracus Wade, Mark Lyons, Matt Brown, Matt Dickey, Matt Gatens, Matt Griffin, Matt Pressey, Michael Harper, Mike James, Mike McCall, Myles Mack, Nic Simpson, Nick Niernczyk, Nori Johnson, Oliver McNally, Parker Smith, Preston Medlin, Preston Purifoy, Raijon Kelly, Ramon Galloway, Randal Holt, Rayvonte Rice, Reggie Bullock, Reggie Chamberlain, Robert Olson, Robert Williams, Roberto Nelson, Ryan Boatright, Ryne Smith, Sam Maniscalco, Sammy Zeglinski, Sandro Carissimo, Scott Christopherson, Sei Paye, Seth Curry, Shane Gibson, Shane Larkin, Shaquille Johnson, Shay Shine, Sheldon Cooley, Stephen Holt, Stephon Carter, Steven Pledger, Stu Douglass, T.J. DiLeo, T.T. Carey, Taevaunn Prince, Tevin Svihovec, Tim Peete, Tony Nixon, Tony Wroten, Travis Smith, Trent Lockett, Trevon Harmon, Trevor Gaskins, Trevor Lacey, Trey Finn, Troy Taylor, Tyler Johnson, Tyler Lee, Tyrus McGee, TyShwan Edmondson, Walter Offutt, Warren Niles, Wesley Davis, Westly Perryman, Will Bogan, Worrel Clahar, Zach Bailey, Zach Filzen

And that’s not even considering the college small forwards that would play shooting guard if they were in the NBA. Ok, that’s fine, maybe Rivers is really bad at one stat that brings his win score down, but good in places that give him promise. Let’s look at how he compares to his peers:

Austin Rivers compared to Draft Express Top 100 Shooting Guards. All stats are adjusted to per 40 minutes.

Player 	DE Top 100 SG 	Austin Rivers
Effective Field Goal % 	0.538 	[COLOR="red"]0.505[/COLOR]
True Shooting % 	0.589 	[COLOR="red"]0.551[/COLOR]
3 Point Shooting % 	0.386 	[COLOR="red"]0.365[/COLOR]
Free Throw % 	0.772 	[COLOR="red"]0.658[/COLOR]
Offensive Rebounds 	1.16 	[COLOR="red"]0.74[/COLOR]
Defensive Rebounds 	4.00 	[COLOR="red"]3.33[/COLOR]
Total Rebounds 	5.17 	[COLOR="red"]4.07[/COLOR]
Assists 	2.60 [COLOR="red"]	2.52[/COLOR]
Steals 	1.51 	[COLOR="red"]1.17[/COLOR]
Blocks 	0.51 	[COLOR="red"]0.04[/COLOR]
Turnovers 	2.27 	[COLOR="red"]2.80[/COLOR]
Personal Fouls 	2.29 	[COLOR="red"]2.69[/COLOR]
Points! 	20.23 	[COLOR="red"]18.67[/COLOR]
Win Score 	5.26 	[COLOR="red"]1.88[/COLOR]

I haven’t seen that much red since, well since last time I argued that Austin Rivers is a bad draft prospect. This guy can’t even score points! at an above average rate, what exactly does he bring to the table? His dad was good? Chad Ford sums it up (unintentionally) hilariously well:

Extremely confident
Good shooter with deep range
Sick crossover move, very quick
Nice floater
Skilled ball handler
Has a killer instinct on the floor

Is that list serious? He’s extremely confident? Tupac was extremely confident, but I didn’t want him on my basketball team. He has a “sick” crossover move? That’s analysis? Hot Sauce had a sick crossover move, but I didn’t want him on my NBA basketball team. Rivers can’t be that great of a shooter or he’d have better shooting percentages. He has a nice floater? Great. So why doesn’t he shoot a higher percentage or score more? He has a killer instinct. The list sells itself. If you like watching shows like Ghost Hunters or Finding Bigfoot, take Austin Rivers in the lottery. I’ll stick with guys who are objectively good.

Basically Rivers is worse at EVERYTHING than the average of the top 100 DraftExpress ranked college shooting guards. He should be a flyer in the second round, not a lottery player.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

NBA source said yesterday that it's possible Austin Rivers goes to Portland at 6 and likely Barnes goes to GSWs at 7 or to Toronto at 8

Tim Kawakami is sort of the John Canzano of the Warriors. I hope to Christ he's as ill-informed.

 

[Blaze01]

Basically Rivers is worse at EVERYTHING than the average of the top 100 DraftExpress ranked college shooting guards. He should be a flyer in the second round, not a lottery player

This is why you are not a GM. He will be a top 10 pick in the NBA....

He was inefficient last year, as an 18yr old freshman BTW....but you have to look a little more than just the stats, but at the dynamics of the team that he was on, and the role he was thrust into (go to scorer)....Very few players are going to be efficient when they are given the ball (often with a short timeframe) to score and the opposing defense knowing and scheming to stop it....

 

[Rastapopoulos]

This is why you are not a GM. He will be a top 10 pick in the NBA....

I think that's entirely possible. But that doesn't mean he should be. Every year (literally EVERY year) there are busts in the top ten.

He was inefficient last year, as an 18yr old freshman BTW....but you have to look a little more than just the stats, but at the dynamics of the team that he was on, and the role he was thrust into (go to scorer)....Very few players are going to be efficient when they are given the ball (often with a short timeframe) to score and the opposing defense knowing and scheming to stop it....

Find me a player with comparably inefficient stats in college who got better in the pros. Go on.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Chad Ford and Bill Simmons:

FORD: Look, Lillard was a late bloomer. He wasn't lightly recruited until his senior season. You may be right that Rivers would've put up better numbers as a freshman. However, here's my knock on Rivers. He thinks he's Kobe. He's not. He doesn't have the length, the height, nor the athletic ability. Take those things away from Kobe, and he's Ricky Davis — an irritating ball hog no one wants to play with and who isn't good enough to warrant the diva act.

SIMMONS: Wow, you just waved two middle fingers at Doc Rivers — you compared his son to his least favorite player to have ever coached. Why didn't you just throw a Dominique Wilkins barb in there while you were at it?

FORD: Lillard is a willing passer. Rivers isn't and will never be. Lillard made dramatic improvements from year to year. I thought Rivers was the exact player in college that he was in high school. Lillard is a team player. He was the second most efficient player in college basketball DESPITE being the only decent player on his entire roster; teams game planned to stop him and him alone every night. I just don't see Rivers ever being anywhere near as unselfish or efficient. I think Rivers will be shocked at the athleticism and length at his position. He'll try to do the same things at which he excelled in high school, spend a lot of time on the bench, get into it with his coach and teammates, get traded in a year or two to a desperate team, put up huge numbers for a cellar-dweller for a year or two, make some money, and eventually, teams will realize he can't be the alpha dog on a winning team.

SIMMONS: Other than that, you're a huge Austin Rivers fan.

FORD: I honestly think Rivers is the one guy I wouldn't touch in the lottery. Too toxic for team chemistry, doesn't have the same physical tools to make it worth it.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Here's my sincere hope: the Blazers really DO take Rivers at #6.... because Michael Jordan likes his arrogance, and has arranged a trade of the #2 for the #6 picks.

 

[Blaze01]

I think that's entirely possible. But that doesn't mean he should be. Every year (literally EVERY year) there are busts in the top ten.
Find me a player with comparably inefficient stats in college who got better in the pros. Go on.

He was an 18 year old kid....So are you implying that the story is written in stone for him, his fate has been determined, he cannot ever get better, at age 19?????

I just don't believe that...not one bit....that is the problem with drafting young players....there is just a lot of room for growth..PROVIDED they want to put in the hard work (to me this is a key aspect of analyzing young players)....I have never seen anyone state that Rivers isn't a hard worker, or that he isn't smart....and he has a ton of confidence, which you DEFINITELY need if you want to succeed in the NBA....

I honestly do not have the time to look back and answer your stats based question, I would surprised, in this age of young 18-19 year old players that there would not be exceptions, or players who were inefficient as freshman and improved in that area as they got older in college...

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Since I haven't studied the players and can barely keep up with the info on this board, my approach will be wait and see. If Lillard, Rivers or Waiters or whoever . . . I'll let it play out.

It will be hard if the media starts dogging our picks, but weren't a bunch of experts calling the Blazers losers of the draft with Roy and Aldridge.

Imagine the pressuer Olshey must be feeling. He is hired, then within a matter of weeks his legacy may be set. Blazers won't have these draft picks or financial flexiblity like this again for a while. Is Olshey a one hit wonder or a top notch GM . . . this summer will decide?

 

[Nikolokolus]

He was an 18 year old kid....So are you implying that the story is written in stone for him, his fate has been determined, he cannot ever get better, at age 19?????

I just don't believe that...not one bit....that is the problem with drafting young players....there is just a lot of room for growth..PROVIDED they want to put in the hard work (to me this is a key aspect of analyzing young players)....I have never seen anyone state that Rivers isn't a hard worker, or that he isn't smart....and he has a ton of confidence, which you DEFINITELY need if you want to succeed in the NBA....

I honestly do not have the time to look back and answer your stats based question, I would surprised, in this age of young 18-19 year old players that there would not be exceptions, or players who were inefficient as freshman and improved in that area as they got older in college...

My feeling on Rivers is that his wiring doesn't quite match his physical abilities or skill level. He's in for a rude awakening I'm afraid.

 

[Reep]

Confidence in the right package is great. Rivers doesn't have the tools to be an elite SG. It also appears that his confidence leads him to believe he is the best option on offense in any given situation. Can he keep the confidence, but learn to use it to distribute more? Maybe, but there is no evidence of it yet.

 

[Blaze01]

This is a kid who has played 1v1 vs different NBA players when he was in HS....I think he has the skills...

 

[Rastapopoulos]

This is a kid who has played 1v1 vs different NBA players when he was in HS....I think he has the skills...

Chris Douglas-Roberts never lost a game of 1-on-1. Including against Derek Rose.

 

[Nikolokolus]

This is a kid who has played 1v1 vs different NBA players when he was in HS....I think he has the skills...

The trouble is that basketball isn't a 1 v 1 sport. Rivers is a black-hole on offense and will not make LA, Nicolas or Wesley better.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

The trouble is that basketball isn't a 1 v 1 sport. Rivers is a black-hole on offense and will not make LA, Nicolas or Wesley better.

I'd even say he would make them worse. Overly confident ball hog who takes bad shots and sucks at defense. JAMAL CRAWFORD