Wins against good teams

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Damn thats crazy - would like to see the records.

We must have a lot of losses to teams with losing records. The Utah one stands out.
 
SharpesTriumph said:
Damn thats crazy - would like to see the records.

We must have a lot of losses to teams with losing records. The Utah one stands out.
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By virtue of playing in the west most of our losses would also be to .500 teams and above - the top East teams just get to absolutely feed against garbage.

But yes, we've lost to Utah twice, Brooklyn, etc.
 
Our losses against losing teams;

10/25 NOP
11/7 SAS
12/6 UTH
12/13 SAS
12/21 SAS
12/30 PHI
1/6 DET
1/14 BRK

Thats a decent amount but not what I would expect - I don't understand how that stat with wins is accurate.
 
BlazerBeav said:
By virtue of playing in the west most of our losses would also be to .500 teams and above - the top East teams just get to absolutely feed against garbage.
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I mean I guess that makes some sense. Still a lot of west teams on this list some who are in the playoffs;

Lakers
Clippers
Mavs
Suns
Kings

Maybe the LA teams also have games to make up from the fires.
 
I guess I'd quibble a bit about how it is a .500 team became a "good team"

Blazers are 3-8 against current playoff teams with HCA that are top-4 in conferences

and 8-12 against playoff teams that are top-6 in conferences

those aren't great records but they are better than some of the seasons against actual good teams in the Stotts era. A lot of those teams made hay against the lottery teams, rarely losing. This current team has stubbed their toes against lottery teams a few times
 
wizenheimer said:
I guess I'd quibble a bit about how it is a .500 team became a "good team"

Blazers are 3-8 against current playoff teams with HCA that are top-4 in conferences

and 8-12 against playoff teams that are top-6 in conferences

those aren't great records but they are better than some of the seasons against actual good teams in the Stotts era. A lot of those teams made hay against the lottery teams, rarely losing. This current team has stubbed their toes against lottery teams a few times
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You make it sound like a bunch of playoff teams are expected to have winning records against all the top playoff teams. Being close to .500 against those teams is all that you need to be a great regular season team. Then win against the bad teams. That gets HCA. The team winning the title only needs to win 57% of their games in the playoffs.

To be a tier lower and a solid playoff team but not a great regular season team you can have a losing record against the top teams. Even title winners often do this but perform better in the playoffs.

Blazers were horrific for the majority of this season so even having some of these stats against winning records is impressive. I don't think anyone rational expects we are or can be a great team this season.
 
For example - last year Dallas was 25-27 against opponents that were .500 and above. They made the finals.

The year prior - Miami was 24-24. They made the finals

Two years prior - Milwaukee was 19-17. They won the title.
 
SharpesTriumph said:
You make it sound like a bunch of playoff teams are expected to have winning records against all the top playoff teams. Being close to .500 against those teams is all that you need to be a great regular season team. Then win against the bad teams. That gets HCA. The team winning the title only needs to win 57% of their games in the playoffs.

To be a tier lower and a solid playoff team but not a great regular season team you can have a losing record against the top teams. Even title winners often do this but perform better in the playoffs.

Blazers were horrific for the majority of this season so even having some of these stats against winning records is impressive. I don't think anyone rational expects we are or can be a great team this season.
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I just posted Blazer records against current playoff teams; and quibbled about a .500 team being called a good team. Half of the teams in the league are .500 or better

the stat is kind of deceptive too. Blazers have 12 wins, but they have played 31 games which is more than most teams. Going by winning% against .500 or better makes it look a bit different:

OKC .760
Cleveland .696
Houston .654
Boston .652
Minny .560
NY .526
Indiana .526
Memphis .524
Denver .440
Atlanta .423
Phoenix .409
Sacramento .407
Detroit .393
Dallas .393
Portland .387
LAL .381
Golden State .375
 
wizenheimer said:
I just posted Blazer records against current playoff teams; and quibbled about a .500 team being called a good team. Half of the teams in the league are .500 or better

the stat is kind of deceptive too. Blazers have 12 wins, but they have played 31 games which is more than most teams. Going by winning% against .500 or better makes it look a bit different:

OKC .760
Cleveland .696
Houston .654
Boston .652
Minny .560
NY .526
Indiana .526
Memphis .524
Denver .440
Atlanta .423
Phoenix .409
Sacramento .407
Detroit .393
Dallas .393
Portland .387
LAL .381
Golden State .375
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I can see why some posters claim all you do is pick the negative view of everything lol

Blazers record against .500 or better teams since Dame was drafted;

12-19 this season
8-49 last year
15-36
15-35
16-22 (lost to Nuggets in playoffs)
14-23 (Dame bubble MVP)
25-18 (WCF year we were 3 seed)
24-25
17-26
18-28
20-21
21-22
18-34

So yeah we win 5 more in these last 30 games and that will be the most since the WCF team. Dame had a losing record here every year in Portland except one.
 
Color me shocked.

But, Incredulous is my middle name.

The boys are back in town!!
 
SharpesTriumph said:
I can see why some posters claim all you do is pick the negative view of everything lol

Blazers record against .500 or better teams since Dame was drafted;

12-19 this season
8-49 last year
15-36
15-35
16-22 (lost to Nuggets in playoffs)
14-23 (Dame bubble MVP)
25-18 (WCF year we were 3 seed)
24-25
17-26
18-28
20-21
21-22
18-34

So yeah we win 5 more in these last 30 games and that will be the most since the WCF team. Dame had a losing record here every year in Portland except one.
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ok...you're kind of proving out what I said. Delete the 3 seasons of deliberate tanking; they aren't the same as the others

so then, 10 seasons and 7 of those seasons are better, by winning percentage, than this season

18-19 - .581
13-14 - .498
14-15 - .488
17-18 - .490
20-21 - .421
16-17 - .395
15-16 - .391
24-25 - .387
19-20 - .378
12.13 - .346

and in 12-13 the Blazers did a mini-tank as Batum sat the last 7 games, Aldridge sat for 6 of the last 10, and Matthews sat the final 4 games
 
wizenheimer said:
ok...you're kind of proving out what I said. Delete the 3 seasons of deliberate tanking; they aren't the same as the others

so then, 10 seasons and 7 of those seasons are better, by winning percentage, than this season

18-19 - .581
13-14 - .498
14-15 - .488
17-18 - .490
20-21 - .421
16-17 - .395
15-16 - .391
24-25 - .387
19-20 - .378
12.13 - .346

and in 12-13 the Blazers did a mini-tank as Batum sat the last 7 games, Aldridge sat for 6 of the last 10, and Matthews sat the final 4 games
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See we just view this differently. The Blazers had multiple games this year they got blown out by 40 points to horrible opponents. They were 13-28 overall including games against all the celler dwellers. They had a vegas over under of 23 wins.

To even be in a position where they are comparable now to many of Dame playoffs teams as opposed to the prior 3 years of tanking teams is a shocking accomplishment.
 
SharpesTriumph said:
See we just view this differently. The Blazers had multiple games this year they got blown out by 40 points to horrible opponents. They were 13-28 overall including games against all the celler dwellers. They had a vegas over under of 23 wins.

To even be in a position where they are comparable now to many of Dame playoffs teams as opposed to the prior 3 years of tanking teams is a shocking accomplishment.
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probably should revisit this after the season. Here are there remaining games against .500 & better teams:

@ Minnesota Timberwolves
@ Denver Nuggets
@ Denver Nuggets
Los Angeles Lakers
@ Cleveland Cavaliers
@ Boston Celtics
@ Oklahoma City Thunder
New York Knicks
Memphis Grizzlies
Denver Nuggets
Boston Celtics
Cleveland Cavaliers
@ Sacramento Kings
@ New York Knicks
Los Angeles Lakers

not many easy wins there
 
My hope is 18-12 the rest of the way. I think, the way we’ve been playing, that is doable. Would make us 41-41. Maybe play-in, maybe not but it’s great runway to next year.
 
What the Blazers turn around and current run of success tells me is that the league has forgotten what "Team Defense" looks like. Almost every team is a bunch of three point chuckers, and when you teach and encourage proper rotation skills to take away a team's open 3-point looks, they fall back to iso ball drives, which Ayton, Clingan, and Williams have been feasting on. This plus focusing on outlet passing on defensive rebounds and being aggressive and unselfish on offense when opposing defenses are not set equals success. Not quite Rocket Science, and smart teams will figure out what the Blazers are doing soon enough. But enjoy this run while we can and hope, maybe just maybe the tide may be beginning to turn in the offense/defense makeup of the league.
 
KingSpeed said:
My hope is 18-12 the rest of the way. I think, the way we’ve been playing, that is doable. Would make us 41-41. Maybe play-in, maybe not but it’s great runway to next year.
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A short runway, where the plane crashes before getting enough momentum to take off
 
chris_in_pdx said:
What the Blazers turn around and current run of success tells me is that the league has forgotten what "Team Defense" looks like. Almost every team is a bunch of three point chuckers, and when you teach and encourage proper rotation skills to take away a team's open 3-point looks, they fall back to iso ball drives, which Ayton, Clingan, and Williams have been feasting on. This plus focusing on outlet passing on defensive rebounds and being aggressive and unselfish on offense when opposing defenses are not set equals success. Not quite Rocket Science, and smart teams will figure out what the Blazers are doing soon enough. But enjoy this run while we can and hope, maybe just maybe the tide may be beginning to turn in the offense/defense makeup of the league.
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It’s always been about defense.
 
Mediocre Man said:
It’s always been about defense.
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that's true mostly, but I think it's a bit too simplified

I think, when talking about actual contenders, it's about balance, elite talent, and 2-way players.

* 2024: Boston was 3rd in defense but 1st in offense; led the league in net rating at +11.6. Dallas was a bit of an outlier but they were 18th in defense and 10th in offense; net rating +2.2

* 2023: Denver was 15th in defense but 5th in offense; net rating of +3.4. Miami another outlier, IMO; 9th in defense but 25th in offense; net rating -0.3

* 2022: Golden State was 1st in defense and 17th in offense (but they have been there in the finals 4 previous times); net rating +5.6. Boston was 2nd in defense and 7th in offense; Net rating +7.5

* 2021: Milwaukee was 10th in defense and 6th in offense; net rating +5.8. Phoenix was 9th in defense and 5th in offense; net rating +5.9

* 2020: Lakers were 3rd in defense and 10th in offense; net rating +5.7. Miami was 11th in defense and 7th in offense; net rating +3.0

5 season is enough for some quick-and-dirty-maybe-mean-something-maybe-not averages

average defensive rankings of champions: 6.4
average offensive rankings of champions: 7.8

average defensive rankings of finals teams: 8.1
average 0ffensive rankings of finals teams: 9.3

average net ratings of champions: +6.42
average net ratings of finals loser:+3.66
average net ratings of finals teams: +5.06

now, I don't know how predictive this is. Obviously this would need to be at least a 20 year sample instead of 5 years to see what is most important; and to see some other factors like 3pt shooting and rebounding. And to see the trendlines because we know the NBA has changed. And it would be nice to see this for all 4 conference finals teams compared to finals teams

but from above it's probably necessary for a real contender to have a net rating of 3.0 or better while being close to top-10 in both offense and defense
 
wizenheimer said:
that's true mostly, but I think it's a bit too simplified

I think, when talking about actual contenders, it's about balance, elite talent, and 2-way players.

* 2024: Boston was 3rd in defense but 1st in offense; led the league in net rating at +11.6. Dallas was a bit of an outlier but they were 18th in defense and 10th in offense; net rating +2.2

* 2023: Denver was 15th in defense but 5th in offense; net rating of +3.4. Miami another outlier, IMO; 9th in defense but 25th in offense; net rating -0.3

* 2022: Golden State was 1st in defense and 17th in offense (but they have been there in the finals 4 previous times); net rating +5.6. Boston was 2nd in defense and 7th in offense; Net rating +7.5

* 2021: Milwaukee was 10th in defense and 6th in offense; net rating +5.8. Phoenix was 9th in defense and 5th in offense; net rating +5.9

* 2020: Lakers were 3rd in defense and 10th in offense; net rating +5.7. Miami was 11th in defense and 7th in offense; net rating +3.0

5 season is enough for some quick-and-dirty-maybe-mean-something-maybe-not averages

average defensive rankings of champions: 6.4
average offensive rankings of champions: 7.8

average defensive rankings of finals teams: 8.1
average 0ffensive rankings of finals teams: 9.3

average net ratings of champions: +6.42
average net ratings of finals loser:+3.66
average net ratings of finals teams: +5.06

now, I don't know how predictive this is. Obviously this would need to be at least a 20 year sample instead of 5 years to see what is most important; and to see some other factors like 3pt shooting and rebounding. And to see the trendlines because we know the NBA has changed. And it would be nice to see this for all 4 conference finals teams compared to finals teams

but from above it's probably necessary for a real contender to have a net rating of 3.0 or better while being close to top-10 in both offense and defense
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I just meant with the Blazers. They’ve had shit defense for so long that I have been screaming about defense
 
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