Notice Won't get fooled again?

[THE HCP]

This thread is so weird to me. I thought maybe I'd pulled a Rip Van Winkle

 

[THE HCP]

Utah

It is too frustrating playing against Harden and CP3. You know they will eventually get more calls

EXACTLY!!! Utah isn't going to get the calls Houston would. Nowhere near.

 

[wizenheimer]

So, a 5 game winning streak, 4 of them on this road trip. Fourth in the West, half a game out of third, 4 out of second and 5 out of first. Quality wins over the Warriors, Philadelphia and Boston in this streak. The Blazers are playing team ball and winning despite Dame and CJ being generally off with their outside shooting. Kanter and Hood barely know anything about the offense yet the second unit is contributing.

Damn! These guys are really good at fooling some of us gullible fans.

What do you think was the point of the OP?

last year, in about mid February, Portland went on a 13 game win streak to push their record to 44-26. They won 17 of 20 games to climb to a 48-29 record and essentially secure 3rd seed

they then proceeded to lose 8 of their last 9 games including the humiliation of getting swept by a 6th seed, and losing those playoff games by an average of 9 points. The season before, Portland ended the season on a 17-6 run over their last 23 games....and got swept in the playoffs, losing by an average of 18 points.

the OP said he'd seen this movie before....Portland gets hot sometime after the all-star break, then gets crushed in the playoffs. Portland has lost 10 in a row in the playoffs, and has gone 1-12 in their last 3 playoff series. And all those losses came after Portland got really hot in the 2nd half of the season. You'd have to be really dense not to see that the OP's argument has some merit

 

[e_blazer]

What do you think was the point of the OP?

last year, in about mid February, Portland went on a 13 game win streak to push their record to 44-26. They won 17 of 20 games to climb to a 48-29 record and essentially secure 3rd seed

they then proceeded to lose 8 of their last 9 games including the humiliation of getting swept by a 6th seed, and losing those playoff games by an average of 9 points. The season before, Portland ended the season on a 17-6 run over their last 23 games....and got swept in the playoffs, losing by an average of 18 points.

the OP said he'd seen this movie before....Portland gets hot sometime after the all-star break, then gets crushed in the playoffs. Portland has lost 10 in a row in the playoffs, and has gone 1-12 in their last 3 playoff series. And all those losses came after Portland got really hot in the 2nd half of the season. You'd have to be really dense not to see that the OP's argument has some merit

My goodness, you sure do like to type lengthy posts and then call people dense. It’s a very endearing characteristic you’ve developed.

Everyone knows the Blazers have a lot to prove after last year’s playoffs flameout. But holding onto that as THE defining characteristic of this team and refusing to acknowledge that player growth and roster upgrades can change that characteristic, especially when evidenced by quality wins and play, isn’t a particularly bright look either.

 

[wizenheimer]

Everyone knows the Blazers have a lot to prove after last year’s playoffs flameout. But holding onto that as THE defining characteristic of this team and refusing to acknowledge that player growth and roster upgrades can change that characteristic, especially when evidenced by quality wins and play, isn’t a particularly bright look either.

what is it that's "not bright" about saying that Portland has been hot and looked unbeatable for stretches every season but then flames out in the playoffs? That's just factual; and if somebody is seeing the same plot-line in this year's movie they've seen in the 3 previous movies, I don't know why it's unreasonable to expect a similar ending

 

[THE HCP]

what is it that's "not bright" about saying that Portland has been hot and looked unbeatable for stretches every season but then flames out in the playoffs? That's just factual; and if somebody is seeing the same plot-line in this year's movie they've seen in the 3 previous movies, I don't know why it's unreasonable to expect a similar ending

I have a feeling EVERY team but one looks hot for a stretch and then bows out in the playoffs. Some go further of course, but with our talent level the past 4 years I think they have played WAY over expectations.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

what is it that's "not bright" about saying that Portland has been hot and looked unbeatable for stretches every season but then flames out in the playoffs? That's just factual; and if somebody is seeing the same plot-line in this year's movie they've seen in the 3 previous movies, I don't know why it's unreasonable to expect a similar ending

I thought last year felt much more like a “repeat year” than this one has. The big difference is Nurkic to me, when they play through him, they’re a different team. When their bench can score it makes a big difference too. This the first year since LMA left that it doesnt feel like the whole team is unhinged if Dame or CJ or both dont have good games.
Does any of that mean this team makes out of the 1st round? No. Whoever they play will be a good team.
To me though, this team hasnt had nearly the same “down stretches” of previous years, and. they are a much more versatile bunch.

 

[hoopsjock]

I thought last year felt much more like a “repeat year” than this one has. The big difference is Nurkic to me, when they play through him, they’re a different team. When their bench can score it makes a big difference too. This the first year since LMA left that it doesnt feel like the whole team is unhinged if Dame or CJ or both dont have good games.
Does any of that mean this team makes out of the 1st round? No. Whoever they play will be a good team.
To me though, this team hasnt had nearly the same “down stretches” of previous years, and. they are a much more versatile bunch.

One of the plays to the game to me was when they were very clearly about to start trapping Dame and Dame lobbed a pass to Nurk up at the top of the 3 point line. Nurk then lasered a pass to a wide open Harkless for an easy dunk. This is what I'm talking about where if we play through Nurk when teams double Dame it is basically a 4 on 3 advantage if you go quickly.

 

[ripcityboy]

If you could compare us to an MLB team who would it be and why. Baseball isn't even a sport obviously, but I just thought I'd ask your opinion.

2015 Pirates probably. From the time when I still followed baseball The Pirates situation was similar to ours. They had a certain talent level that prevented them from achieving more. The Pirates regular season record ended up sticking them in the path of a team they really didn't have much chance in beating (in a one game series.) If the Pirates had just made it past the Cubs they may have fared better against another team.... The '15 Pirates also had potential long term contracts they didn't want to give because they didn't want to be on the hook for diminishing production. While we have to pay a premium rate for whatever we can get. Those different but still the kind of problems a small market team faces. Long term contract concerns because your window is short of contention is short... It's just the Pirates have usually chosen the baseball equivalent to tanking. While the Blazers choose to live in small market purgatory. But that version of their team and our current one had some key aspects in common.

 

[tlongII]

I agree that the big difference this year is Nurk. He is playing terrific. I believe it's his defense that makes us go. I think he's better than Gobert defensively. He's not as long, but he moves better and he contests everything. He's also a bit of an asshole which I like in a big man.

 

[oldmangrouch]

If you could compare us to an MLB team who would it be and why. Baseball isn't even a sport obviously, but I just thought I'd ask your opinion.

Oakland during the stretch that the "Moneyball" approach was sort of working. They would do pretty well in the regular season, but even when they made the play-offs they would get smashed.

 

[JoshuaHall]

I was thinking more about this...

The end result I believe will be the same. I do not believe we will make it out of the first round, solely because I have zero faith in Stotts as a coach.

But here is the difference...

Last year I knew we would get smoked going into the first round because our team just wasn’t that good and Stotts. Well, not knew, but predicted based on what I was seeing from our team + weaknesses + how we ended the season. I’d be interested in finding some of my old posts, might be under my old account which I couldn’t retrieve the password.

This year, I believe we SHOULD get out of the first round EASILY because we have the team and pieces to do so; but, we won’t, because Stotts is gonna
Stotts.

I’ve beaten this horse to death but Stotts has held this team back more than anything else, he has suppressed talent and certainly hasn’t gotten the most from the players or put them in the most successful place for them. He wouldn’t have a job if it weren’t for Dame, who makes him and his system look much better than it is. Fact of the matter is, we have talent, it’s just poorly utilized or under utilized.

It would be like having me Coach OKC — I could blindly get them to win a few games on sheer talent alone — and heck, probably have a half decent record but they’d clearly be vastly superior if they had even a half decent coach at the helm. Obviously Stotts is a better coach than I, and he gets coach of the year love, but I truly believe it’s misplaced appreciation. He should thank Dame anytime he gets considered for any sort of award.

And he definitely doesn’t put Dame in the best position to succeed with some of his dumbass rotations and decisions; I refer you to the playoffs where he has constantly struggled to make adjustments to get Dame (or even CJ) good looks.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Stotts should kick back a chunk of his salary to Dame - but he is hardly the only coach who serves at the sufferance of his star.

 

[e_blazer]

what is it that's "not bright" about saying that Portland has been hot and looked unbeatable for stretches every season but then flames out in the playoffs? That's just factual; and if somebody is seeing the same plot-line in this year's movie they've seen in the 3 previous movies, I don't know why it's unreasonable to expect a similar ending

Here’s my problem with that line of thinking: I don’t think that the facts support the notion that fans have been let down by the Lillard/McCollum era Blazers having a history of suffering post season collapses.

Only last year were the Blazers expected to win their first round series and failed to do so. The year before, they finished in the 8th seed and drew the Warriors. Yeah, they got swept but nobody reasonably expected more than that. They played decently and Dame and CJ both had solid performances.

The year before that, they beat the Clippers in the first round and then lost to the Warriors. Sure, the Clippers series was aided by injuries, but that doesn’t negate the solid play and the fact that Dame and CJ performed well. The Warriors loss was to be expected due to their vastly superior talent level.

So, where is this supposed history of the team “fooling” its fans? Only one season is that notion a reasonable premise. Since then, the core players have matured and improved. Dame is at his peak and Nurkic is a more seasoned and consistent performer. Yes, Stotts kept the same offense, but he and Olshey have bolstered the roster with better and more seasoned shooters and another dominant post player needed to penalize teams for the trapping and blitzing defense the Pelicans were so successful with last year.

Given all of that, this year is not set up as just a repeat of last year. It’s set up for a real test of the players and system Olshey and Stotts have wanted. I’d wager that if the Blazers have a first round flameout again, both are gone and CJ gets traded. If they exceed expectations, we get the fun of watching that. Either way, fans win.

 

[Orion Bailey]

okay dammit. I think the wool is being pulled over my eyes again, cause im believing.

 

[CupWizier]

Here’s my problem with that line of thinking: I don’t think that the facts support the notion that fans have been let down by the Lillard/McCollum era Blazers having a history of suffering post season collapses.

Only last year were the Blazers expected to win their first round series and failed to do so. The year before, they finished in the 8th seed and drew the Warriors. Yeah, they got swept but nobody reasonably expected more than that. They played decently and Dame and CJ both had solid performances.

The year before that, they beat the Clippers in the first round and then lost to the Warriors. Sure, the Clippers series was aided by injuries, but that doesn’t negate the solid play and the fact that Dame and CJ performed well. The Warriors loss was to be expected due to their vastly superior talent level.

So, where is this supposed history of the team “fooling” its fans? Only one season is that notion a reasonable premise. Since then, the core players have matured and improved. Dame is at his peak and Nurkic is a more seasoned and consistent performer. Yes, Stotts kept the same offense, but he and Olshey have bolstered the roster with better and more seasoned shooters and another dominant post player needed to penalize teams for the trapping and blitzing defense the Pelicans were so successful with last year.

Given all of that, this year is not set up as just a repeat of last year. It’s set up for a real test of the players and system Olshey and Stotts have wanted. I’d wager that if the Blazers have a first round flameout again, both are gone and CJ gets traded. If they exceed expectations, we get the fun of watching that. Either way, fans win.

This thread makes no sense. Wtf is this "i won't be fooled again. As a fan i am ecstatic when we make the playoffs and will root for them to the end . Those that don't want to be fooled are bandwagon fans.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Those that don't want to be fooled are bandwagon fans.

Not wanting to set myself up for disappointment=bandwagon fandom?

Yeah, I don't see the equivalency.

 

[CupWizier]

Not wanting to set myself up for disappointment=bandwagon fandom?

Yeah, I don't see the equivalency.

You're entitled to your opinion. I disagree with it though. I find it hilarious how paranoid some are afraid to be considered a homer. I embrace it.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

You're entitled to your opinion. I disagree with it though. I find it hilarious how paranoid some are afraid to be considered a homer. I embrace it.

Has nothing to do with how I'm "considered". Has everything to do with my perception of the world around me. I can absolutely be a die-hard ("non-bandwagon") fan without foolishly believing that they're a title contender.

 

[CupWizier]

Has nothing to do with how I'm "considered". Has everything to do with my perception of the world around me. I can absolutely be a die-hard ("non-bandwagon") fan without foolishly believing that they're a title contender.

Title contender? I certainly never brought that into the discussion. I merely posted what my opinion is. Yours is different than mine. No biggie.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Title contender? I certainly never brought that into the discussion. I merely posted what my opinion is. Yours is different than mine. No biggie.

Not sure our opinions are different--I think perhaps we're just talking about different things.

You said that "Those who don't want to be fooled" are bandwagon fans. In your opinion, what does "not being fooled" refer to?

 

[CupWizier]

Not sure our opinions are different--I think perhaps we're just talking about different things.

You said that "Those who don't want to be fooled" are bandwagon fans. In your opinion, what does "not being fooled" refer to?

it says to me that those that don't want to be fooled again are afraid to emotionally invest in the team for fear of being disappointed. Thus not being 100% supportive fans. I will always risk disappointment if the reward is advancing towards a title. Hopefully that clears it up what my opinion is.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

it says to me that those that don't want to be fooled again are afraid to emotionally invest in the team for fear of being disappointed. Thus not being 100% supportive fans. I will always risk disappointment if the reward is advancing towards a title. Hopefully that clears it up what my opinion is.

I do appreciate the clarification. There would actually be a lot to unpack there. I would definitely disagree with some of the assumptions, implications, and conclusions indicated therein.

 

[CupWizier]

I do appreciate the clarification. There would actually be a lot to unpack there. I would definitely disagree with some of the assumptions, implications, and conclusions indicated therein.

and that's why we are individuals with individual thoughts.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

it says to me that those that don't want to be fooled again are afraid to emotionally invest in the team for fear of being disappointed. Thus not being 100% supportive fans. I will always risk disappointment if the reward is advancing towards a title. Hopefully that clears it up what my opinion is.

Man, there is so much about this opinion I disagree with if I didn't have to work today this could be a very interesting conversation. I wouldn't mind coming back to it this evening when I hopefully have some time, and of course, if you don't mind having a conversation about it? For the record, I understand it's opinion and it's ok for us to disagree.

 

[CupWizier]

Man, there is so much about this opinion I disagree with if I didn't have to work today this could be a very interesting conversation. I wouldn't mind coming back to it this evening when I hopefully have some time, and of course, if you don't mind having a conversation about it? For the record, I understand it's opinion and it's ok for us to disagree.

No problem on my end.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

is Portland better?

* Dame & CJ are the same. Aminu and Harkless are the same, although the knee of Harkless may be an issue

* Turner is the same. So is Meyers. But neither of those guys matter much or can impact a series

* Nurkic is improved and that could be big. But we have to see if playoff Nurkic is at the same level as regular season Nurkic. Last year, not so much

* Davis, Napier, and Connaughton have been replaced by Kanter, Curry, and Hood. I go back and forth over if Kanter is an upgrade over Davis, overall. Offensively, sure, defensively, not a chance. Curry vs Napier is interesting; Napier could do more but the one thing Curry does, he does very well. I'd like to think Hood will be an upgrade over Pat, but really, neither is the kind of player that can really change the trajectory of a playoff series

* the wild card may be Layman. He's certainly improved this year. Can he a big enough factor to turn a playoff game?

on paper, Portland appears to be a little better. But they still have the same vulnerability they had last year, and that pivots on how Lillard performs. I don't believe Portland can win a series if Dame is struggling, and for sure, opponents will know that. But not every team has a Holiday & Rondo to throw at Dame, or an AD to jump every pick and screen set for Dame

Last Year: Nurk the Flipper
This Year: Nurk the Flipper-Offer

Huge Difference, IMHO.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Here’s my problem with that line of thinking: I don’t think that the facts support the notion that fans have been let down by the Lillard/McCollum era Blazers having a history of suffering post season collapses.

Only last year were the Blazers expected to win their first round series and failed to do so. The year before, they finished in the 8th seed and drew the Warriors. Yeah, they got swept but nobody reasonably expected more than that. They played decently and Dame and CJ both had solid performances.

The year before that, they beat the Clippers in the first round and then lost to the Warriors. Sure, the Clippers series was aided by injuries, but that doesn’t negate the solid play and the fact that Dame and CJ performed well. The Warriors loss was to be expected due to their vastly superior talent level.

So, where is this supposed history of the team “fooling” its fans? Only one season is that notion a reasonable premise. Since then, the core players have matured and improved. Dame is at his peak and Nurkic is a more seasoned and consistent performer. Yes, Stotts kept the same offense, but he and Olshey have bolstered the roster with better and more seasoned shooters and another dominant post player needed to penalize teams for the trapping and blitzing defense the Pelicans were so successful with last year.

Given all of that, this year is not set up as just a repeat of last year. It’s set up for a real test of the players and system Olshey and Stotts have wanted. I’d wager that if the Blazers have a first round flameout again, both are gone and CJ gets traded. If they exceed expectations, we get the fun of watching that. Either way, fans win.

There's also pressure. A first round flameout could mean changes are coming:
https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/479463b0-344b-4f0e-a64d-85438fbaa08d#BJUiCBxI8N.copy

 

[wizenheimer]

Last Year: Nurk the Flipper
This Year: Nurk the Flipper-Offer

Huge Difference, IMHO.

nope....Nurkic is Bosnian

flipper-offer is German

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

it says to me that those that don't want to be fooled again are afraid to emotionally invest in the team for fear of being disappointed. Thus not being 100% supportive fans. I will always risk disappointment if the reward is advancing towards a title. Hopefully that clears it up what my opinion is.

Ok so here’s my disclaimer. I've worked a ton of hours the last couple weeks, and am at that point where I feel like I'm dreaming in code... So I want to apologize if this comes off as disrespectful once my brain is on better terms with reality I will try to fix this up.
So here's my thoughts-
Whats a 100% supportive fan?
My money, my time, my viewership equals the same amount of support as anyone else's. You say you’ll cheer for them to the end, you're excited when they make the playoffs, etc like other people won't be, simply because they, don't want to be fooled again?”
You talk about being a homer, but when platypus brought up them being a title contender you scoffed at that idea. So if you’re that much of a homer they could regain the 3 seed in the next couple weeks, yet you dont think they’re a contender?
You also seem to think fans who are weary about getting excited as if the Blazers are a contender, are somehow less of a fan because of that.
It sounds like you’re just living in the moment happy for todays success, and happy when they succeed, upset when they fall short but unwilling to hope they’re a real threat, then telling people who are hesitant to take the same step you are, that they arent emotionally invested, or 100% supportive fans.

I can be all in on my fandom for a team and still understand that in reality they arent winning a championship, it doesnt in anyway prohibit me from enjoying their wins, from being upset at their losses. It doesnt make my fandom of the team any less real to me than your fandom of the team.
I guess thats my opinion on it, I dont think they’re a championship team, but I’ll still hope they win one this year. I will still watch as many games as I can and spend hours on this website posting to other Blazer fans like you. I dont believe it makes me less emotionally invested or supportive of the team if I question how good they are, or if they’ll make it out of the first round.

Anyways I apologize again if this sounds like Im attacking you, I will drink some coffee, try to compile this project again and reread this.