Zach Lowe: Playoff Series Preview

[Nikolokolus]

http://grantland.com/features/heat-nets-spurs-blazers-preview/

A really nice article breaking down the finer points and matchups between us and the Spurs.

The Mavs’ obsessive goal against San Antonio was simple: take away San Antonio’s 3-pointers, stay attached to outside shooters, and force the Spurs to beat them with the two players directly involved in a pick-and-roll [...] The parallels with Portland are irresistible, even beyond the Blazers featuring an elite jump-shooting power forward and a former Dallas assistant as head coach. Portland is a mediocre defensive team, 16th in points allowed per possession in the regular season, and Terry Stotts reconstructed its scheme around recognizing those limitations.

To wit: Portland stays home on 3-point shooters and seeks to reduce the game to a two-on-two contest against opposing pick-and-rolls.

...

The team that wins this series will be the one that tilts these scenarios its way — on both ends of the floor. For Parker and Ginobili, that means doing better than midrange jumpers as much as possible. Can they cross over Robin Lopez and LaMarcus Aldridge, get to the rim, and draw extra defenders — opening up kickout passes to open shooters? Can Ginobili get some open off-the-bounce 3s of his own? For the Portland bigs, it means finding the right balance in challenging Parker’s jumper without allowing him to drive by them or find the roll man for easy buckets.

Damian Lillard’s defense is key here, and it is the glaring weak spot in his game.[...] If Lillard hangs on Parker’s hip, this series feels different. If he can’t, expect to see a lot of Nicolas Batum on Parker, with Lillard shifting over to Danny Green. Hiding Lillard that way gets dicier when Stotts plays him with Mo Williams, an even worse defender, and it will be interesting to see how Stotts distributes those minutes — and if he can play them together at all when both Parker and Ginobili are in the game.

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But Aldridge is a problem. When Splitter jumps out on the pick-and-roll, as Duncan does in that photo, Aldridge can mix in hard rolls to the rim that puncture San Antonio’s defense. Aldridge has shown a renewed aggression in the playoffs, and he has gone hard at both Splitter and Boris Diaw on the block — pushing hard for close-range righty hooks and up-and-under moves instead of settling for long fadeaways.

The Spurs are loath to double-team in the post, and way too smart to abandon corner shooters in order to challenge Aldridge 20-footers. They’ll do a bit of both just to mix things up, and that’s part of what makes Aldridge a scheme-buster.

The Mavs’ offense, the league’s best after the All-Star break, sliced San Antonio apart using Nowitzki’s shooting and heady playmaking from their collection of veteran guards. Portland might not be quite as deep in speedy perimeter playmakers, but they’ve got four who can do damage and plenty of 3-point shooting.

The Blazers have the tools to win this series. So do the Spurs. This should be fun. The Spurs have been a hair better all season, they’re deeper, and they have home-court advantage.