Trade Powell to Portland!

[Rastapopoulos]

Over the last ten games, per 48 minutes stats:
Player 1:
Points: 24.3
Rebs: 4.0
Assts: 2.8
fg% 44
3% 29.5
-22 in 361 mins

Player 2:
Points: 21.7
Rebs: 5.0
Assts: 3.4
fg% 45
3% 42.9
+36 in 126 mins

Guess the players

 

[wizenheimer]

Over the last ten games, per 48 minutes stats:
Player 1:
Points: 24.3
Rebs: 4.0
Assts: 2.8
fg% 44
3% 29.5
-22 in 361 mins

Player 2:
Points: 21.7
Rebs: 5.0
Assts: 3.4
fg% 45
3% 42.9
+36 in 126 mins

Guess the players

so, one player averaged 36 minutes and the other averaged less than 13...and one was a starter and the other came off the bench

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

You'd have to think his plan was to keep Powell and trade CJ.

Yes, if he is thinking rationally.

 

[RR7]

I don’t buy any of that and am surprised you do

Agreed. The "if reports are correct"...I mean, what is he going to tell reporters, yeah, I offered CJ for George, Harden, etc. but they said no. Anyways, we still have CJ. I'm sure that'll go over amazingly in the locker room, and with CJ.
And in before the...those guys are better than CJ, CJ should know that comments. It's still not the way to handle personalities in the league.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Over the last ten games, per 48 minutes stats:
Player 1:
Points: 24.3
Rebs: 4.0
Assts: 2.8
fg% 44
3% 29.5
-22 in 361 mins

Player 2:
Points: 21.7
Rebs: 5.0
Assts: 3.4
fg% 45
3% 42.9
+36 in 126 mins

Guess the players

On our team? I looked up Lillard, Simons, Powell and CJ and none seem to match either...

 

[Hoopguru]

I would love to see a CJ/Thibs pairing in New York.

CJ would do well in NY.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

On our team? I looked up Lillard, Simons, Powell and CJ and none seem to match either...

Remember, this is stats for the last ten games (not counting today's).

 

[Tince]

CJ would do well in NY.

You think Thibs would be thrilled to play him?

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Remember, this is stats for the last ten games (not counting today's).

Looked at that; CJ at 21.7 pts/gm, but his 3 pt % is 32.9. Still can't find a match for any Blazers.

 

[wizenheimer]

Agreed. The "if reports are correct"...I mean, what is he going to tell reporters, yeah, I offered CJ for George, Harden, etc. but they said no. Anyways, we still have CJ. I'm sure that'll go over amazingly in the locker room, and with CJ.
And in before the...those guys are better than CJ, CJ should know that comments. It's still not the way to handle personalities in the league.

I saw Olshey in an interview after that trade deadline when PG13 was traded...or maybe it was just before...he said something to the effect "why would I trade CJ for PG; I want Dame and CJ to play with PG" ...his words paraphrased

now that's not a direct confirmation he wouldn't include CJ in a PG trade, but both Quick and Haynes said Olshey was offering Portland's 3 first round picks for PG. So he at least was involved in the discussions. Quick said wouldn't include CJ, but he also said Portland's offer was better than OKC's. I don't know what they could have offered back then that would have been better. Maybe Quick was overrating the three 1sts; or maybe he was continuing to overrate Meyers and the offer was Meyers, Harkless, and the three firsts. Which of course wouldn't be better than Oladipo and Sabonis

but there have been plenty of 'reports'= rumors?' that have said Olshey was holding CJ untouchable in trade talks and those seem to have been generated by more than just Jason Quick as the source, but the blogosphere can be an echo chamber

https://www.blazersedge.com/2017/7/...l-george-trail-blazers-offer-2017-draft-picks

 

[PCmor7]

Oh, sorry, I thought this was the Afflalo thread.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Looked at that; CJ at 21.7 pts/gm, but his 3 pt % is 32.9. Still can't find a match for any Blazers.

Remember, these are PER 48 Stats.
Player 1: Powell
Player 2: Anfernee. I was amazed to find that over the last ten games Simons looks like a solid player, and (in a stunning turnaround) has gone from being regularly our WORST +/- guy to by far and away our best. Go figure.

 

[Titan]

Remember, these are PER 48 Stats.
Player 1: Powell
Player 2: Anfernee. I was amazed to find that over the last ten games Simons looks like a solid player, and (in a stunning turnaround) has gone from being regularly our WORST +/- guy to by far and away our best. Go figure.

Surprised to see that too with Anfernee, especially when I see he gets yanked a lot when he is making shots.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Updated after yesterday's game:

Over the last ten games, per 48 minutes stats:
POWELL
Points: 22.5
Rebs: 4.1
Assts: 3.2
fg% 44
3% 29.5
-16 in 359 mins

SIMONS
Points: 22.7
Rebs: 5.4
Assts: 3.6
fg% 47.6
3% 48.3
+42 in 133 mins

 

[Natebishop3]

Is Powell supposed to be a small forward?

 

[Hoopguru]

Is Powell supposed to be a small forward?

He's not a SF in traditional since. He's them third guard in a 3 guard line up.

 

[wizenheimer]

Updated after yesterday's game:

Over the last ten games, per 48 minutes stats:
POWELL
Points: 22.5
Rebs: 4.1
Assts: 3.2
fg% 44
3% 29.5
-16 in 359 mins

SIMONS
Points: 22.7
Rebs: 5.4
Assts: 3.6
fg% 47.6
3% 48.3
+42 in 133 mins

I just don't think doing any kind of per/X-minutes stats are fair to the player who averages 36 minutes as a starter, out of position. And in Powell's case, not only a starter but a starter assigned to guard some of the opponents best players. In 13 minutes a game, Simons is protected on defense, Powell is exposed. And, offensively Powell is going against 1st unit players. Simons never faces that kind of resistance nor is he a high priority in any opposing scouting report

and all of that's even more a factor when you reduce the sample size to just 10 games

I agree Simons has been playing better lately, but the sample sizes you've used coincide to a time when Portland's record is 2-9. With that in mind, here's another stat: when Powell has been on the floor, Portland is +3.1 points/100-possessions; when Simons has been on the floor, Portland is -7.0 points/100-possessions. In other words, Powell is +3.1 in 36 minutes/game; Simons is -7.0 in 16 minutes/game

 

[RR7]

I saw Olshey in an interview after that trade deadline when PG13 was traded...or maybe it was just before...he said something to the effect "why would I trade CJ for PG; I want Dame and CJ to play with PG" ...his words paraphrased

now that's not a direct confirmation he wouldn't include CJ in a PG trade, but both Quick and Haynes said Olshey was offering Portland's 3 first round picks for PG. So he at least was involved in the discussions. Quick said wouldn't include CJ, but he also said Portland's offer was better than OKC's. I don't know what they could have offered back then that would have been better. Maybe Quick was overrating the three 1sts; or maybe he was continuing to overrate Meyers and the offer was Meyers, Harkless, and the three firsts. Which of course wouldn't be better than Oladipo and Sabonis

but there have been plenty of 'reports'= rumors?' that have said Olshey was holding CJ untouchable in trade talks and those seem to have been generated by more than just Jason Quick as the source, but the blogosphere can be an echo chamber

https://www.blazersedge.com/2017/7/...l-george-trail-blazers-offer-2017-draft-picks

That doesn't really dispute what I said, which is, what would you expect him to say? That he was offering CJ? Of course not. Show me a GM who says he's offering his 2nd best player in trades but it wasn't enough to get the deal done.

 

[wizenheimer]

That doesn't really dispute what I said, which is, what would you expect him to say? That he was offering CJ? Of course not. Show me a GM who says he's offering his 2nd best player in trades but it wasn't enough to get the deal done.

the 'report' was Olshey was offering the 3 picks and a choice of players not including Dame, CJ, and Nurkic. So then, according to that, Olshey wouldn't offer CJ for George. You seem to be saying Olshey did and later denied it...?

 

[RR7]

the 'report' was Olshey was offering the 3 picks and a choice of players not including Dame, CJ, and Nurkic. So then, according to that, Olshey wouldn't offer CJ for George. You seem to be saying Olshey did and later denied it...?

I'm simply saying if he had, we likely wouldn't hear it. And he certainly wouldn't say that he had. Him not getting a deal done for any of those big names is fuel enough for detractors to make the same arguments over and over about him over valuing "his" guys anyways, and laughing at who he has as untouchable.

 

[Fogojam]

I just don't think doing any kind of per/X-minutes stats are fair to the player who averages 36 minutes as a starter, out of position. And in Powell's case, not only a starter but a starter assigned to guard some of the opponents best players. In 13 minutes a game, Simons is protected on defense, Powell is exposed. And, offensively Powell is going against 1st unit players. Simons never faces that kind of resistance nor is he a high priority in any opposing scouting report

and all of that's even more a factor when you reduce the sample size to just 10 games

I agree Simons has been playing better lately, but the sample sizes you've used coincide to a time when Portland's record is 2-9. With that in mind, here's another stat: when Powell has been on the floor, Portland is +3.1 points/100-possessions; when Simons has been on the floor, Portland is -7.0 points/100-possessions. In other words, Powell is +3.1 in 36 minutes/game; Simons is -7.0 in 16 minutes/game

Cant you use your own argument against this, that Powells +/- numbers are much better because he is playing with starters while Ant is playing with the bench. Granted, Powell catches the harder defensive assignments, but his points per possession also benefits from playing with starters more often.

 

[wizenheimer]

I'm simply saying if he had, we likely wouldn't hear it. And he certainly wouldn't say that he had. Him not getting a deal done for any of those big names is fuel enough for detractors to make the same arguments over and over about him over valuing "his" guys anyways, and laughing at who he has as untouchable.

we have seen more than one report that sure seems to confirm that he holds players untouchable that should not be untouchable. It hasn't just come from Quick or Haynes IIRC

 

[RR7]

we have seen more than one report that sure seems to confirm that he holds players untouchable that should not be untouchable. It hasn't just come from Quick or Haynes IIRC

You already pointed out how much of the sports news cycle works. Haynes writes it, then 45 other blogs write it. And it looks like it's all over the place, with dozens of sources.
Either way, I don't really care enough to continue. I'm not a fan of Olshey anyways.

 

[wizenheimer]

Cant you use your own argument against this, that Powells +/- numbers are much better because he is playing with starters while Ant is playing with the bench. Granted, Powell catches the harder defensive assignments, but his points per possession also benefits from playing with starters more often.

sure

but my point was that comparing a 36 minute a game starter to a 13 minute a game backup on a per48 basis, for just a 10 game sample, is a flawed gauge, for a variety of reasons. The gauge I used is flawed for the reasons you cited, but it shows a completely different picture than the per48 gauge

it may or may not be worth noting that last season both Simons and Trent were in the 2nd unit and averaged 21 minutes a game. Blazers were -1.9 with Trent on the floor, and -11.8 with Simons on the floor.

 

[wizenheimer]

You already pointed out how much of the sports news cycle works. Haynes writes it, then 45 other blogs write it. And it looks like it's all over the place, with dozens of sources.
Either way, I don't really care enough to continue. I'm not a fan of Olshey anyways.

that's all fair

and playing my own devil's advocate you could point out that the value I place on CJ at would not lend him a lot of leverage as an asset in a trade for a star. I think 2017 and the PG13 thing might have been a different situation though

 

[Rastapopoulos]

sure

but my point was that comparing a 36 minute a game starter to a 13 minute a game backup on a per48 basis, for just a 10 game sample, is a flawed gauge, for a variety of reasons. The gauge I used is flawed for the reasons you cited, but it shows a completely different picture than the per48 gauge

it may or may not be worth noting that last season both Simons and Trent were in the 2nd unit and averaged 21 minutes a game. Blazers were -1.9 with Trent on the floor, and -11.8 with Simons on the floor.

"Flawed gauge" or not - Simons has been playing well with the minutes he's been given. He's about the only Blazers' player who's a positive in his minutes.

I don't buy the "Powell is playing out of position" excuse. That just means Olshey was stupid for acquiring a redundant player. Plus he should have an advantage in quickness and ball-handling skills, so it should even out.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

Powell has been consistently one of our best players. I don't even know what the debate is.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

"Flawed gauge" or not - Simons has been playing well with the minutes he's been given. He's about the only Blazers' player who's a positive in his minutes.

I don't buy the "Powell is playing out of position" excuse. That just means Olshey was stupid for acquiring a redundant player. Plus he should have an advantage in quickness and ball-handling skills, so it should even out.

Just sayin'

 

[Minstrel]

View attachment 38247
View attachment 38248
Just sayin'

If you really believe +/- numbers from single games, it's actually incredibly impressive than Powell recorded a +8 while missing all his shots and having 1 assist versus 1 turnover. If you feel +/- in such tiny sample records the player's own contributions, then Powell must have been bringing superstar defense and intangibles, because his raw stats were terrible and yet he was still solidly positive.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

If you really believe +/- numbers from single games, it's actually incredibly impressive than Powell recorded a +8 while missing all his shots and having 1 assist versus 1 turnover. If you feel +/- in such tiny sample records the player's own contributions, then Powell must have been bringing superstar defense and intangibles, because his raw stats were terrible and yet he was still solidly positive.

It's all relative - how terrible must he have been that he was playing alongside Covington, who had +33.

The Afflalo vibes off Powell are getting stronger. Here's hoping we make the playoffs so we can see if "Playoff Powell" is a thing before he leaves us in free agency.