Read this on Doug's blog. I feel the way he does, not sure this guy has a legitimate source, but hey what else is there to talk about? http://jerseychaser.com/carmelo-anthony-wants-to-be-like-mike/ Article talks about Denver's front office in turmoil. Mentions the Nets wont part with Lopez. Said Clippers have a nice team, but who wants to play for the Clippers? (his words kind-of) Mentioned the Bulls big market. Trading Gibson would hurt our pf depth, but Thomas and the Turkish kid could play a little more than expected.
World Wide Wes is representing Anthony, and everything that comes from his camp should be read in that context. Get the big markets in the door? Check. New Jersey/Brooklyn and Chicago, with head fakes toward L.A. I am looking for that piece that would put the Bulls over the top, like every other fan. But it's like we go from one disappointment to the next. Does Anthony fit into our cap structure? No. Do the Bulls already sell out? Yes. That's really the end of it. It's a no go.
Our cap structure doesn't fit into our cap structure. We'll be over the tax in two years with or without Anthony. The question, as always, is whether the Jerry's oft talked about "willingness to pay for a winner" is real or unicorn-like. I tend to think the more winning you get, the more likely it is you get him to grudgingly cough up. In two years, this current team won't be worth paying the tax for. A team with Anthony on it might be. Beyond that, the last reputable stuff I heard was that the Nuggets had stuck their heads in the sand and decided firmly entered the denial stage of how to part with your NBA star. I read they were refusing to discuss offers at all
The addition of Melo's offense is, IMO, only a slight roster improvement when you include the under-rated (by sippers of the Deng anti-kool-aid, but not by The Bulls org) overall game Deng has and the defensive prowess of Taj -- a guy I championed from draft day forward despite boo-birds who called him too old to have any real upside. I think Taj quieted most of his critics. Adding draft picks to those roster losses and I just don't think Melo is worth the extra scoring boost overall. If a deal is swung (and I remain convinced the Bulls are prepared to stand pat for the moment and will consider options closer to the trade deadline, once they see how things are gelling -- a stance I support, barring an eye-popping deal) the deal had better include a Melo extension. I fear that if we trade Deng for Melo without giving Melo and extension now, that signals what Mike alludes to in the cap/LT situation -- that Jerry really isn't willing to pay for a winner and the Melo signing would be a one year rental and a dump of the future years of Deng's salary. Like I said though, I don't think either scenario -- Melo on a one year or Melo with an extension -- is going to happen. The Bulls still believe in Deng and Deng can remain healthy he's worthy of their trust. As to the top four Big Foam Finger -- teams with top 4 conference discussion preseason have a window somewhere in the middle of the playoff seeding, depending on how they perform. Maybe they end the season as a 2 seed if everything clicks. Maybe a 5 or 6, if injuries occur, etc. Maybe elsewhere, but its a prediction of a solid playoff team and when the second season starts, its anyone's trophy, series by series. I'll take that. With all the changes in coaches and players and young stars still blossoming -- maybe this isn't The Year but it looks like we are in the short list of contenders and that ain't bad and it sure looks like we're headed in the right direction. Maybe it IS The Year. That's why teams "contend" and aren't "ordained." Anybody who still has their vintage 1990 "We got our butts kicked by the Pistons again but we're learning and moving forward" Big Foam Finger should be able to relate. Maybe this squad is at the 1990 crossroads. Maybe they're still at 1987, 88 or 89. Maybe they won't get there at all -- a lot of really, really good teams never do. I have to say I like what they've done to improve after surviving the travishamockery of the Three Egos fiasco. After that fiasco, the Celtics probably had the best offseason simply because they improved while having less need to improve. After them, I'd say the Bulls EASILY have had the best off-season in the league in terms of upgrading and improving.
Very nice post TB#1! I too was impressed with Taj from the first time I saw him play in the summer league, it carried over to training camp and after wards. He made Tyrus expendable, of course, Thomas helped to move that along as well. IMO, if Mello is going to be moved, it will be at the deadline. Denver has no reason to trade him now. Seems they are not getting what they want anyway.
Really? Am I missing something? I count only 41,777,640 in guaranteed salary for 2012. You could also chop off an additional $1,833,120 if you think the Bulls drop Johnson by that time. Assuming a flat cap which holds around 58 million that's plenty of room to sign Noah and a bunch of scrubs.
I suppose if they go for a completely bargain basement approach like you suggest, then you're right. For 2012, Rose's extension should be kicking in, so replace his $9M QO with about $15M. I'd figure about $12-13M for Noah, which makes him roughly comparable to the three guys you'd be letting walk. So ok, that's figure that Boozer $15M Rose $15M Deng $13.4M Noah $13M Gibson $2M 2011 pick $1.5M 2012 pick $1M ============ Total $60.9M for 7 players So yeah, that's below the luxury tax, but you've also let two roughly MLE level players and a third guy walk off your team. Folks talk about Rose being maintenance free, but are he and Noah going to look at that situation and think it's ok? Are fans going to accept it? I tend to think it's doubtful on both fronts. More likely, they either make a trade of those guys with NG deals to a team with another star, or they re-up those guys. Otherwise, they're taking an obvious and yucky step back. So in two years, they'll be at the tax. There's little doubt in my mind. When you think about the Bulls saving/spending money, the question is how much they're bankrolling this year and next. For this year, getting under the cap is an excellent revenue strategy because it not only sells hope to your fan base, it lowers your salary. I mean, shit, even Miami is $10M under the LT and they've got three All-NBA guys locked up. Likewise, 2010-2011 will be a cash cow for the Bulls. Good team and low cost. Next year you get a marginal difference with or without Anthony. If you've got Anthony + two minimum salary guys (total $17.5M ish) replacing Deng, Taj and JJ at $15M total, it's a pretty marginal expense that wouldn't put them over the tax. And I'd say that unless Asik is a total flop, we're a lot better with Melo. In fact, we've suddenly got much more natural roles for Korver and Brewer, which shouldn't be discounted. Move out to 2012-2013, and you've got Boozer $15M Rose $15M Melo $18M Noah $13M Gibson replacement $500k 2011 pick $1.5M 2012 pick $1M ============ Total $64M for 7 players Now, you can look at this a couple ways. I look at it and say they ought to add legit depth around those guys and maybe win a title. But even if you're thinking of the "bunch of scrubs" route, I like a bunch of scrubs around Rose/Boozer/Melo/Noah better than I like them around the same group with Deng. Scrubs can approximate what Deng brings to the table but not what Melo brings to the table. That's not to say that Deng is a scrub or a bad player, but in a sense, he's sort of a rich-man's scrub. He's good at everything, but not good enough at anything to make an obvious difference.
1. That's way too high for Noah. He's not getting that kind of money, at least not this off season. Closer to what Haywood got in Dallas, $8-10. 2. I'd trade for Deng and Taj for Melo. Melo is actually everything that people pretend BG was as far as being a closer. That's the difference for me. 3. This is World Wide Wes disinformation again, trying to stir up the market like he did with LBJ and saying "We're going to Chicago." Melo wants to go to NY. We've heard that a million different times from a million different sources. He's going to end up in either NY or NJ. While Chicago again makes the most sense from a basketball standpoint, these guys care about endorsement money first and Melo only cares about being in NY. If he cared about winning, you'd be hearing about Portland and Dallas, too. This isn't about getting to contender, it's about getting out of a smaller market. Chicago is only in the conversation because of market size. NJ has the pieces to make the deal, so Melo won't slip to option C.
I'd guess the Nuggs would rather tie Melo in a sack and throw him in a pond before trading him to division rivals. If he's all about big market, I'd think the Clips would be sensible too. The Nuggets wouldn't be afraid to trade with the Clippers because well, they're the Clippers. Re: Noah, even if you were to say he's only as good as Haywood, which I wouldn't, he's also 6 years younger and that's going to garner an obvious premium. In practice, he's not only younger, he's a heck of a lot better
Noah is another thread, but until he puts together a full season at a high level and injury free, and until he gets to at least restricted FA status, and until there is a long term CBA in place, and unless he put on another 30 lbs of muscle so that he can actually handle a guy like Howard, there is no way Noah gets a deal bigger than about $10 mil a season. What incentive do the bulls have in offering it? Keep Noah happy? Noah is a guy whose whole game is built on hustle and energy. What's he going to do, pout? And diminish his own value. That's not to say Noah isn't one of my favorite bulls, but he's a skinny center with very basic post up moves and a grade school jumper. He's not getting a big deal until he demonstrates he can play with guys like Howard and Yao and even Bynum. Bynum is only making $10 mil/year. You are way overvaluing Noah. He's an arthritic ankle or knee condition away from being Gadzuric. And nobody goes to the Clips... Melo would make sure they knew he wasn't going to sign, so why would they give up anything good?
That would all be nice, but Bynum is making $14M this year, $15M next, and $16.5M in his final season of his contract.
Nene makes $11.5M. Tyson Chandler makes $12.75M. Chirs Kaman makes $11.3M and $12.2M next season. Andrew Bogut makes $12M. Emeka Okafor makes $11.5M, $12.5M (and increases by $1M the next two seasons after that, too) Marcus Camby signed a $10.1M/$11M two year extension with Portland. Al Jefferson is making $13M. Those would be reasonable comparables. The new CBA may well change things. Given the Bulls long history of paying the LT (sarcasm), they'll probably let him walk or trade him for future draft picks.
Okay, thanks for the clarification. You're not so much arguing that the Bulls are going to go over the cap, as you are saying that a combo of Deng-Gibson-Johnson is approximately equal to what it would take to sign Anthony. I disagree with your assessment that the Bulls may be setting themselves up to go over the tax. I don't think there is any reason they would have signed so many players for two year contracts (and pass up good players who wanted three years at marginally more money) if it wasn't their game plan to sign scrubs in two years. I think the Bulls' plan could change if something unexpected happened, a run in the finals or so. But I don't see how you could argue that their plans don't seem to lean toward the scrubs route. In regard to Melo making the same as Deng, Gibson and Johnson -- does Johnson still have positive trade value? He would seem to have negative value to me. I think the Nuggets could do better than that package for Anthony, and even if they were to work out a trade with the Bull, I can't imagine that they would take Johnson back.
I think their plans are open-ended at this point, but their talent leads toward they "need to add more" route which will require spending more. Consider your expectations (if I remember them correctly). A second round team that might sneak into the conference finals. That's the expectation, and a finals appearance would be unexpected. With two years of maintaining basically the same talent level and then achieving that level, wouldn't letting a big chunk of players walk be seen (by players, by fans, by everyone) as a step back? I think Johnson is just an expiring contract trade filler. He needs to be included because without him, the deal doesn't work under the CBA rules. I think the Bulls package is actually pretty competitive. One would think they could do better, but I haven't seen any concrete offers that seem better. Like, the Nuggets might prefer not to take back JJ, but I'm sure they'd also prefer to not have to take, say, Eddy Curry if they trade with the Knicks. When paying him $11M for nothing is the alternative, paying JJ $1.8M for a little bit starts to look decent.
Kaman, jefferson, bogut and nene are all vastly better on offense. Okafor and chandler are known to be overpaid and being moved around for their contracts. Camby is even better than Noah. Why would Noah get more money than any of those guys?i
What are the alternatives? 1) Someone else - you name him. Didn't find a Ben Gordon replacement so easily, and I don't see us finding a Noah replacement so easily. But name who you have in mind. 2) Noah accepts a deal, as if he were a charity. May as well donate whatever salary he gets to Reinsdorf's wallet. I mean, realistically, he'll get what other guys are getting, at the minimum, and likely more if there are teams with cap space who value a young C of his ability.
Do you really think they're open-ended, as in no idea of what they are trying to do? I think they would change plans if they make a strong run to the finals or are a nub away from battling with the top teams in the league. But outside of that, the Bulls gave up on the chance to sign good players because they were only looking for two year deals. If they were going for it, the team would look much different.
I would rather have Noah than everyone on that list sans Kaman and Bogut. And he's injury free and shows up in the playoffs when it really matters. I think his agent will be able to make the case that he's one of the five best centers in the league -- especially for a team that's an appropriate fit -- and that he will get paid accordingly.
No, I think they are open-ended as in they've created for themselves a lot of flexibility for the Summer of 2012. Those NG contracts are nice in that they allow the Bulls to create cap space for another team. EG, if it were the Summer of 2012 right now, we could trade, say, Brewer, Korver, Watson and picks for Melo, the Nuggets could waive those guys, and immediately pocket the $16M in reduced cost. That's a much better deal for a team that wants to rebuild than trading for an expiring contract who you still have to pay (e.g. the Nuggets taking Curry from the Knicks and still having to pay him $11M this year). So the Bulls could 1. Hold tight with the team they have. 2. They'll have a window of opportunity to "buy" a quality player with those non-guaranteed deals. 3. Simply let those guys walk and pocket the savings. I don't think we're really disagreeing much. I think we both agree they need one more core guy. On the other hand, a variety of reports have shown them to be making what I think are pretty reasonable offers (Deng/Taj/Picks for Melo, Pick for Rudy). I would have rather them held off before rushing to sign up the variety of guys they signed up (because having that extra few million in cap space could be valuable in consumating a trade for a guy like Melo), but they don't appear to be totally uninterested in improving either.
