You have Wagner in the “safe roleplayer, low-chance star potential” category, and he’s not even the most talked about guard on Kentucky? Between Dillingham and Sheppard, one of them might have Tyrese Maxey potential. I haven’t really been scouting guards so I don’t have any opinions, but I’m sure one or both of those guys might fall in some of these categories. I just don’t see it with Holland at all. My fear is that Holland is only slightly taller than Isaac Okoro barefoot. Okoro as a SF in the league just looks so small, and I would say Holland isn’t that much better on offense than Okoro was at Auburn. I’d actually move him a tier down into the safe starter tier. Okoro is actually a decent 3pt shooter, he just doesn’t shoot enough of them for me to consider him a 3-D player. Aaron Bradshaw has to enter your tiers as well. Based off his highlight tapes, his post game makes me think he could’ve been a Brook Lopez kind of player in the early ‘10s with the Nets, but he has the potential to play like current Brook who can shoot 3s, and he’s looked good at doing the dirty work in his games back. I’d put him in the safe starter, mid-chance star potential tier. I think he’ll be Mitchell Robinson++ as a starter, and could be an AS if his offensive game from his HS tape translates.
Based off what I’ve seen so far, these are the players I’d love on the Blazers and what tier they might be in: - Alex Sarr (high lotto pick) - Matas Buzeliz (high lotto, interested in him around/past #10) - Cody Williams (8-20, interested in him around/past #10) - Stephon Castle (6-14?, interested in him at any range, but the lower, the better) - Tristen Newton (30-45?, interested in him if he slips past #40) - Aaron Bradshaw (20-40?, interested in him at any range, but the lower, the better) - PJ Hall (30-45?, only interested in him if Sarr and Bradshaw are gone, between 35-40 is where I’d like him) - Tyler Smith (25-40, only interested in hims if Sarr and Bradshaw are gone, between 30-35 is where I’d like him) - Dailyn Swain (25-45?, interested in him past #40) - Trevon Brazile (35-50, interested in him past #45. If you could buy a mid 2nd to draft him and keep him on the GL squad, why not. John Collins potential)
It just depends on where guys fall. A guy like Swain is kind of like Ant when we first drafted him, great potential, won’t see the floor for over two years, so you can stash him on the Remix. Yeah, you could trade down from the Warriors pick and draft Bradshaw, and collect a future 1st. Some of the guys on that list will be gone by the time we select. Stuff like that.
Nikola Topic had a big game today: 21/5/5 (2to) 7/13 fg 3/5 3pt 4/5 ft Shooting is the major concern with him, and he’s progressing well in that category. There’s definitely a real possibility that he gets selected over Collier. That’s great for us.
Another great effort tonight. Ant shooting 3’s like crazy in all sorts of ways and improving on defense. He just makes the right passes. Shae showing he’s improving at everything and might become good at everything if he continues this trajectory. 9reb again tonight, he might become a triple double threat every night. This game is going to be a huge confidence booster for Scoot. This game has showed me that we need guys like Shae at every position. Shae is in the 99th percentile in terms of potential, no one expects to just find a Shaedon Sharpe every year. Now, it’s all about the right guys. Guys who can play great team defense, if they don’t have potential to be great individual defenders. Guys who are great at creating offense off the ball, but can also score at will if needed. Guys who have potential to space the floor. Guys who can generate offense as a primary ball handler, but can also make smart 2nd/3rd reads. Bringing guys like these in maximizes Ant’s ability as a floor spacer, and it makes Ant’s ability to score so much easier when the opposing SF/SF actually has to guard one of our wings. Guys like these also give Shae the ability to collapse a defense and find the open man with the confidence they can progress the play. Scoot is actually going to have the spacing needed to develop as an elite playmaker/scorer.
Going to see if I can start a new game in this thread. Every time there is a major change in the standings, I’ll post where we are projected assuming the lotto happened exactly as the standings show. Based on what we’ve seen from your favorite prospects and what you’ve heard about their projected range, generate a scenario where we end up with those players. What you think about their range is an important note, it’ll say why you think your player might land in one range while other readers might think that player is in a different range. As of 12/12/23: 4, 11, 37, 40 (Hornets have been surprisingly resilient, but Hawks might be in free-fall?). Teams ahead of us: DET, SA, WAS Pick 4: Sarr or trade down. Rationale: I’ve mentioned multiple times why I think Pistons and Spurs can’t afford to bank on Sarr’s potential. I think that Topic has a real shot at being #1 or #2 if either of these teams are the top two picks. Collier might still be the 2nd pick due to both their need for a PG. The question will be whether WAS thinks a guy like Holland or Risacher can become elite scorers in addition to the defense. If they pick Sarr, I’m just not interested in anyone up here right now to justify the #4 pick. Trade down. Pick #11: Stephon Castle. Winners intangibles. The ability to generate offense on and off the ball. Great at getting to the line and getting offensive boards already. Going to be a plus defender and shooter. Legit size to play SF, but looked at as a PG/SG prospect right now. I think the thought of Castle as a PG/SG matters, a combination of Castle’s injury and teams maybe being more interested in point guards like Dillingham, Carrington, etc could push him down the board, which is great. Regardless of where he lands, he is still a player who impacts the game in so many ways. Ant and Shae would immediately have another playmaker to outlet to. Trade down to the late 1st, or trade up from the 2nds: Aaron Bradshaw. I love his potential for a guy we could get in this range. I think he’ll move better than the first two games suggest, as he shakes off the rust. He has modern Brook’s 3pt shooting potential, old Brook’s post game, and Mitchell Robinson’s potential on defense. Bradshaw’s hands would put DA’s hands to shame. Even if we get Sarr, I’m double dipping. If we land Sarr, I hope Schmitz makes it a priority to land Sarr, Bradshaw, and a forward on draft night. I definitely think Sarr and Bradshaw could play together, given Sarr’s ability to defend in space. If Bradshaw proves to be even close to Sarr as a defender in space, they’re interchangeable at PF and C, and we would be set at the center rotation for a REALLY long time. No more size mismatches on a nightly basis. Multiple 7’0ers on the same team. With a GL team nearby, Bradshaw can continue to get stronger and work on growing into his body and playing against real NBA players in the GL. If we trade down from #4 because we don’t land Sarr, we can collect a future lightly protected 1st and maybe more. If we trade up because we are pairing Bradshaw with Sarr for the future, trade the 2nds and future 2nds. #37 and #40: The players I’d be interested in are Tristen Watson, PJ Hall, Dailyn Swain. PJ Hall is only relevant if we don’t get either of Sarr and Bradshaw. Watson is someone who has more potential as a shooter than Mays and is bigger. He’s a guy who can contribute right away and could be one of those guys who’s viewed as a top backup PG like Tyus or TJ. Swain is a guy who has lotto potential next year and looks better than Ryan Dunn at his age. Ideal draft night: Sarr, Castle, Bradshaw Okay draft night: Castle, Bradshaw, Swain, Watson Bad draft night: a night that doesn’t end with at least one of Sarr or Bradshaw isn’t a Blazer. If we end up with a guy like Ware instead of these two, I’ll trust Schmitz. Otherwise, I’ll be bummed. In a weak class that is deep with NBA ready big men, and one big with AS potential that might be available past 20, I expect us to fix this big man rotation once and for all. Either Cronin and Schmitz have to shoulder the load by acquiring a backup big and drafting a big, or Schmitz will have to shoulder the load and scout the hell out of these big men so we can grab two in this draft.
It looks like the Zaccharie Risacher potential is very real, based on his current production. He won’t turn 19 until April, and his production as an 18yr old has been historic: “[DraftExpress] Risacher's historic productivity: • Highest scoring 18-year old in EuroCup history • 2nd highest scoring 18-year old in French history (after Victor Wembanyama) • 65% true shooting % (21 games) (not including this game where he went 6-12, 4-4 FT) • No French teenager since Nicolas Batum (2008) has posted a similar steal/block rate All in a league that is 2nd-3rd best in Europe. (not including EuroCup/Euroleague)” Apparently, his foot speed is elite, which helps his defense. With being so young, he might still grow an inch and get to 6’9 barefoot. People talk about Risacher’s passing like I talk about Ant’s passing—much better than given credit for, he has a lot of great passes that don’t get converted. In a draft like this, the top 3 picks might end up being Sarr, Topic, and Risacher in any order, and I’m not sure if we are in position to turn down any of the three. I’ll be looking into Topic and Risacher more. Either guy is interesting if the shooting is real. Both guys are above 6’7 in shoes.
I'd like to see Zacch get into the teeth of the defense and create ATR a bit more, and see him operating more in PNR (it's why Topic is rated so high). As 3/D catch-and-shoot wing he sounds intriguing. and he's doing it against professionals. I guess you're drafting the intangible physical tools and hoping the other stuff comes around. a catch and shoot guy selected that high is a little scary. there were similar questions about jabari smith jr, I think.
Of what I have watched of Risacher, I really like him. He's definitely in my top 3-4. I didn't like what I watched of Topic. The video wasn't great, so I need to watch more game film on him.
The poster dunk was nice... but it was #34 that did it. Not Topic. This video showed a lot of the same concerns that I have about Topic. He looks slow, a bit pudgy, and not particularly athletic. The drive & kick was a nice play - but that was the only positive I saw from him. There was nothing from this video (or the 2 other videos that I watched of Topic) that would make me think he's even an NBA prospect. I know I need to look at a LOT more video, but I'm not seeing it at all with him.
I've caught up on all the footage and articles,etc for the upcoming draft. My V.1 mock for the first 20 picks. 1. Sarr 2. Castle 3. Topic 4. Walter 5. Holland 6. Williams 7. Clingan 8. Risacher 9. Buzelis 10. Collier 11. Dunn 12. Dual 13. Bradshaw 14. Dillingham 15. Shepherd 16. Bona 17. Carrington 18. Filipowski 19. McCuller 20. Brazile I'm a big believer in Dual, even with all thats happened recently. That's my big swing for the year. Collier is dropping hard. I know I'm not the only one who doesn't see top 5 with him. Watch that Gonzaga game if you have time. Clingan - I would cringe a bit taking him at 7 in any other draft.
Buzelis is having a breakout game, and not doing anything out of his skill level right now. He does a bit of everything you love. Imagine him playing off of guys like Ant and Shae. As a spot up shooter alone, he would make Scoot’s life so much easier as another guy to space the floor for him. Much better prospect than Gradey last year, and I still think he could be available around #10-14.
I don't love the idea of bringing in 4 additional rookies (2- to the main roster and 2- to GLeague). I'd rather have 1 pick in each round. As far as prospects go, there are only 3-4 that I like as lottery talents at this point. 1. Castle 2. Risacher 3. Buzelis 4. Sarr These guys have potential (ie- as picks in the teens), but I need to see more. 5. Williams 6. Dunn 7. Shepherd 8. Boswell 9. Walter 10. Bradshaw 11. Tyler Smith The pickings are fairly slim this year...
I do my boards a little different, I don’t really add guys who I can’t see as Blazers on my boards. So I’m out on a guy like Collier due to his size already, and this goes for Dillingham, Sheppard, etc. 1) Sarr 2A) Buzelis 2B) Castle 4) Bradshaw 5) Williams 6) Risacher 7) Topic 8) Holland 9) Carrington 10) Walter 11-13) Clingan/Ware/Almansa
This video does a good job of pointing out what teams need to do for non-shooting wings to survive. I think the qualities of what makes shaky 3pt shooting wings stick around are what we should be looking for at the top of the board. Those guys make the most impact in this league. Tatum, PG, Kawhi, Lebron, KD. Most of the NBA’s toughest matchups are guys that do multiple things. The video suggests that shaky shooting wings need the following to stick around: - plus-defender status (good at ball pressure, screen navigation, anticipation, and switch-ability) - off ball awareness, being active without the ball, anticipating when to cut, and putting pressure on the rim in transition - “connective passing”, so the ability to make second reads and being able to find the open man. “Might not be the period at the end of the sentence, but will embrace being a comma”. Right now, Castle and Buzelis look like those kind of players at the top. Williams is also in that group. These are currently my three favorite guys in the lotto range, and I know Riascher has more hype than all three guys right now. Any of these three also would be good shooters, so they wouldn’t even qualify in the category of wing that the video is talking about. This video made a very good point about teams needing to to have moving parts on offense and adequate spacing though, both are very important if you want to bring a player like this in one day. If we have a team that can organically grow into a good shooting team one day, it makes it easier to just plop a player with an Amen Thompson, Ben Simmons skillset into in.
Extremely rough lol. I’ll just have to judge what I see from the what I see. I hate that they don’t have a PG. Unfortunately, some of the most intriguing parts of Buzelis’ game are his point forward abilities, and the lack of spacing and talent just doesn’t show that part of his game. He looks great at making the second pass though, and seems like a great player to make the next play out of an Ant double team. Watching Ant pass out to Bari and Mani is somewhat painful, they aren’t good enough as offensive threats or playmakers yet. The first step is also good and quick. I’m not certain that Topic for sure has a quicker first step. That probably helps Buzelis with his on ball defense. As long as he keeps up the effort on that end, he’s not going to be a defensive liability, even at PF. Effort and length can go a long way. Obviously, if the defense isn’t a liability, the potential impact on offense he can provide the Blazers is MASSIVE. As a spot up shooter, I think he can be a 36-40% on Thybulle’s 3pa right off the bat. He’s a walking paint touch, especially against guards and shorter SFs, and he will find the cutter as soon as a defender over-commits. I’m salivating at the thought of a 6’10 Buzelis paint touch where his two main options will be a 45” vert Shae and a 43% 3pt on the perimeter.
