Cheap free agent scoring guards/guards to fill up roster spots.

Discussion in 'Chicago Bulls' started by truebluefan, Jul 13, 2014.

  1. Bullsville

    Bullsville Intelligent Bulls Fan

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    The MLE has nothing to do with penalizing higher-spending teams, in fact it was introduced to allow teams over the cap to add a decent free agent at the average salary. Without the MLE, teams over the salary cap- which most teams are every year- wouldn't be able to sign any free agents except for the ones they could get with the minimum salary.

    Lowering the MLE for taxpaying teams is a way to "penalize" them, sure- they are trying to keep the league competitive and prevent teams from trying to just buy a championship. As I pointed out yesterday, teams with the highest payrolls don't usually win the championship anyway, and the difference in payroll between #3 (for example) and #8 is usually minimal, maybe $5 million tops. That's not a big difference, less than 10% of total payroll, about one average salary player.

    A team that is $1 million under the cap doesn't lose it's MLE, though. A team has to be more than the MLE under the cap to lose the MLE, because then they have to renounce the MLE to create that cap space.

    The room MLE was just added to the last CBA as a way to allow teams under the cap to use all their cap space AND still add more salary even after they have signed players with their cap space.

    For example, a team $1 million over the cap has the MLE to spend ($5.305 million). A team wouldn't renounce its MLE to get $2 million under the cap, they're better off just keeping the $5.305 million MLE and staying over the cap.

    The whole point of going under the cap is to be able to sign a player for more than the MLE. But if you can get to $6 million under the cap by renouncing your MLE, you can sign a player for $6 million AND a player for the Room MLE of $2.7 million. The team that's over the cap can't sign that $6 million player.
     
  2. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    Question.

    Only taking roster into account and not finances, do people agree that the Bulls would be better situated if they had retained Deng and not acquired Gasol?

    I think we have to acknowledge and be frustrated with the fact that the Bulls once again made another cost-cutting maneuver that sacrificed talent and competitiveness. The Bulls could have kept Deng, and signed Mirotic with the MLE, and re-signed Kirk with the room exception. I think that's a better, more complete team.

    Reindsorf said he's pay for a championship. That team would have to be the favorite for coming out of the East.
     
  3. Bullsville

    Bullsville Intelligent Bulls Fan

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    I have no doubt the Bulls will find someone to do the job Nate and DJ did over the last two years. They always do.

    Which is why I can't understand why so many fans (not you) are so freaked out about the Bulls losing DJ. Freaking out about what the roster looks like TODAY- the season doesn't start for another 3+ months, they will add another PG and another SG once everyone who can get more than the minimum has signed.
     
  4. Bullsville

    Bullsville Intelligent Bulls Fan

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    I'll take this team with Gasol over Deng any day of the week.

    I'm really liking Snell's defense and ball-handling, and his 3-point shooting is going to be huge. I was a giant Deng fan, but he just never became a good enough 3 point shooter for today's NBA, where you need guys who can spread the floor.

    And I'm very high on Mirotic, but just in case he isn't ready to play big minutes yet, we'll still have an awesome three man PF/C rotation. If Mirotic can contribute quite a bit right away, we can trade Gibson for someone better than Deng IMHO.
     
  5. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    Right, that's the part that seems strange to me. In order to make a free agent transaction of any note (like the Bulls did with Gasol and Mirotic) you have to renounce that regular MLE to get under enough, unless your starting payroll was way, way, way under the cap to begin with.

    It seems the system is set up to not want teams to be able to spend larger amounts on FAs AND use the larger MLE in the same off season. A team that already has a large payroll though due to a past off-season or trades is allowed to go more "over the cap" by using the regular MLE than the team that just signed a FA and had to renounce the regular MLE.

    What would be the harm in having the room MLE be the same amount as the regular, non-taxpayer MLE? I guess it goes back to they don't want teams spending large amounts on FAs with Cap Space and then using the larger exception, but that does seem to penalize the lower payroll teams relative to the teams with payrolls already over the cap.
     
  6. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    I think that this is a very valid point and concern.

    The Bulls effectively swapped out Deng and Boozer for Gasol. It looks like Mirotic signed for slightly over what the non-tax payer MLE plus 4.5% raises is the next three years, but it looks like he would have come over here for the non-tax payer MLE plus 4.5% raises, assuming I'm calculating that right, given that the $$$ is so close to the 3 year, 17 mil number I see reported. I guess the Bulls would have had to amnesty Boozer in order to get Mirotic over here this year at that amount.

    Its true the starting lineup of Rose-Butler-Deng-Taj-Noah would be light on the 3 point shooting. But so was the starting five going into last season and many were picking them to win the title. So was the Rose-Rip-Deng-Boozer-Noah starting 5 of several years ago that people felt would win the title.

    I think ideally you would like to have your best players be your starting lineup or at least guys that are going to get the heaviest minutes at the 1,2,3,4 and 5. The Bulls right now are heavy at the 4 and 5 and light at the 2 and 3. Its fun to think that Snell or Dougie or someone else might breakout, and I hope that happens, but its hard to really bank on that.

    So, yah, I think that odds are the Rose-Butler-Deng-Taj-Noah lineup with Dunlevey and Dougie being your snipers off the bench would be the safest bet. Still have Snell too. Probably would have still been have to have Mirotic over here and whatever vet min guys could be picked up.

    I was really excited when we signed Rip Hamilton. Seemed like a great piece. Had some great memories of watching him play. As it turned out, given his age and naggin injuries, the impact he made was not a big as many probably hoped. I fear the same situation with Gasol. Great name, great memories, but the decline happens fast in the NBA and he's on the wrong side of the hill. And of course we already have a 4 and a 5 that are in their primes and really good.

    Then again, maybe the Gasol-Gibson-Noah-Mirotic combo is super dynamic and one of Snell or Dougie breaks out. That would be great!

    I'm hearing rumbles of Wiggins for Kevin Love. I don't like the sound of that. I fear that the Cavs are kind of like the Heat when the Big 3 formed. Now is the time to beat them since they are going to be getting nothing but stronger over the next couple of seasons. The time to strike is now.
     
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2014
  7. Bullsville

    Bullsville Intelligent Bulls Fan

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    I see your point - with the harsh financial penalties now imposed on teams who are always over the LT, and the team-building penalties for any time you are over the LT, why not give everyone between the "Salary Cap" figure and the LT have the same MLE and BAE and let them keep their trade exceptions, and just reward teams who are fiscally responsible enough and have good enough front office to get under the Salary Cap?

    It would just get teams closer to the luxury tax sooner.
     
  8. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    I would imagine that many don't like that it appears that the org picked Hinrich over DJ. But DJ signed for more than the room MLE and there was no indication that I saw that he was willing to offer a hometown discount and Coach Thibs likes Hinrich over DJ.

    The Bulls appear good at picking up undersized scoring PGs for cheap and the Thibs system seems to get a lot of value out of them. I'm not sure if you can bank on a Nate / DJ situation happening every season, but I would not be surprised to see Aaron Brooks do really well here.
     
  9. Bullsville

    Bullsville Intelligent Bulls Fan

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    Yeah very true K4E, but folks had to know Kirk was going to be here, Thibs loves him so he wasn't going anywhere.

    And you had to know they were going to finish the roster with a vet min DJ/Nate/Lucas3 type. Scoring PG is the deepest position in the league, hell probably the world, right now.
     
  10. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    6M/2 years is very different than 4M/2 years to a player whose never received a big deal too.
     
  11. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    Very fair question.

    We didn't miss Deng much during the regular season but definitely did miss him during the playoffs. I'm inclined to say this year's version with Gasol is a bit better because I think last year showed that Deng and Jimmy were less than the sum of their parts when they played together. Too heavy on rebounding and defending and too light on ball handling and shooting.

    Of course it's no guarantee and the big counterpoint is whether or not Gasol is able to withstand father time for a few more years. Hell if I know. But I'm inclined to think we have one of, if not the best frontcourt in the NBA which will be a bigger matchup advantage than having Lu around.

    And as for Snell:

    I think this is a little too optimistic. I agree he's looked very good in Summer League, but so did Lonny Baxter. This isn't meant to disregard his progress, but he was basically a Zero as far as NBA rotation players go. He's got a long way to go before he catches up with Deng.

    I don't think he'll ever have anything close to his motor, and it's hard for me to see him scoring in volume the way he did despite Tony's higher level of offensive refinement.

    My biggest source of optimism about him is it looks like he tightened up his stroke, which will be huge if he can shoot 3-4 times a game @40% or so.
     
  12. Bullsville

    Bullsville Intelligent Bulls Fan

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    Slow down buddy, I didn't say or imply anything about catching up with Deng. All I want to see from Snell is close to 40% 3-point shooting and good defense and ball-handling.

    Sometimes people forget how much guys grow from their rookie years. If anyone says they saw Noah being 1st-Team All-NBA and 4th in MVP voting when he was a rookie, or Gibson being 2nd in 6th Man of the Year voting when he was a rookie, or Butler being 2nd-Team All-Defense two years after playing a total of 359 minutes as a rookie...

    Nobody is expecting Snell to win any awards this year, just to give up 15 minutes of solid defense and ball-handling plus 37%-40% 3-point shooting.

    I remember reading from Bulls fans on multiple forums over the last year that GarPax blew it by taking Snell over Hardaway Jr... well as of this week, Snell has passed Hardaway Jr in the eyes of the voters.

    Snell will most likely never make two All-Star teams, but as you already pointed out we couldn't play Deng and Butler together, that was obvious. I think we made the wise choice in keeping the cheaper, younger and more athletic player of the two.
     
  13. TomBoerwinkle#1

    TomBoerwinkle#1 Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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  14. TomBoerwinkle#1

    TomBoerwinkle#1 Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    The*Chicago Bulls*are finalizing a deal with free-agent guardAaron Brooks, according to sources close to the talks.

    Sources told ESPN.com that the Bulls are closing in on the addition of Brooks to give them some backcourt scoring punch off the bench.

    Brooks would join former All-Star big man*Pau Gasol*and Real Madrid star*Nikola Mirotic*as new additions to the team, along with prized rookie*Doug McDermott.

    Brooks, 29, averaged 9.0 points and 3.2 assists per game while splitting last season with the*Houston Rockets*and*Denver Nuggets.
     
  15. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    I think free agency has borne out the fact that Hinrich is a more unique player than the DJ Augustin's and Aaron Brookes's of the world, even though the thought probably chagrins a lot of fans. He has his shortcomings (which we've discussed ad nauseam here), but it's easier to create flexible lineups with him than really short guys.

    I think the Bulls liked DJ, but he was probably grabbing every dollar he could this FA and went to the highest bidder, no questions asked.

    The Bulls have had some luck with their vet min shorties, but I think it's worth pointing out that reserving your minimum salary slots for the shortest guys on the team is probably a good asset allocation strategy.

    As a matter of arithmetic it's a lot easier to find 6'1 guys who are really good at basketball than 7'1 guys. (Fun fact: if you are over 7' tall in the USA there's a 17% chance you'll play professional basketball!).

    So if you walk into Free Agency with a million bucks there's a good chance you'll end up with a John Lucas III or DJ Augustin. Guys who are really talented, just short.

    If you're looking for a big there's a good chance you end up with Nazr Mohammed. Awful at basketball, but really tall.
     
  16. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    You responded to this question:

    With this:

    I interpreted this as "I liked Deng as a player, but feel good enough about Snell's progress that I think he'll fill in the void left by his absence."

    AKA, Snell's improvement mitigates the loss of Deng.

    It's true that many rookies improve a lot from when they come into the league, but I think it's more true that most don't improve enough to make their mark in the league, especially guys drafted in Snell's range.

    In any event, we're probably only disagreeing by a matter of degrees. I'm bullish on Snell as being a good role player. The org also seems to have a knack for identifying guys that are good fits for their system, which I think really helps their development.

    With a gun to my head, I think I like this team a little more than last year's due to added depth and shooting, but it's close.

    When I look at this squad I'm really reminded of our 2011-2012 squad.

    Both have very deep, balanced frontcourts. I actually see Doug's role on the team being closer to Rip than to Korver, which I think is huge. I've always thought people underestimated Rip's presence on that team. His output was statistically meager, but I thought it was clear as day that his ability to move without the ball and create offense in his own way had a big effect on the team. The team made a leap from 12th to 5th in offensive efficiency that year and I think it was him replacing Bogans that was responsible for the increase.

    If Derrick's healthy I think this team has a better shot. Cleveland isn't a super team yet, we have better shooting, and Jimmy provides a rough facsimile of Deng.
     
  17. Bullsville

    Bullsville Intelligent Bulls Fan

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    That is an outstanding point. Big men are often overpaid because they are in short supply, but guys who are 6' are a dime a dozen.

    As for Hinrich, award voting doesn't prove anything other than how highly the voters think of a player, but he finished 27th in voting for All-Defense last season.

    Ahead of the following guys:
    Ariza
    Deng
    Avery Bradley
    Batum
    Danny Green
    Afflalo
     
  18. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Aaron Afflalo went for Evan Fournier and a 2nd round pick.

    It sure seems like we've had real trouble filling the SG spot since BG left.
     
  19. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    In terms of supply, there's a big difference between 6'1 guys and 6'7' guys. The average non-asian guy is about that height, so it's literally the average joe walking down the street.

    6'7' guys are a standard deviation or two down the bell curve.

    There are probably quite a few small PG's who could walk onto an NBA team and be respectable. There are less 6'7' guys who can do the same thing.
     
  20. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I was perhaps unclear. I think Afflalo and a 6'1" PG would be better for the team than Kirk.
     

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