demand won't go up until unemployment goes down and the economy is actually naturally healthy rather than artificially so.
Maris is a good person to ask as he's in the business, but I would think prices can't continue to drop much more. That, coupled with all time low interest rates should make this a great time to buy. Sure, prices may not go up for a few more years, but interest rates might.
Real estate is so locally driven, it's difficult to come up with national overall conclusions. I will say, however, that the Federal Government needs to get out of the way and let the market clear. Yeah, the drop will be brutal, but this lingering concern about where the bottom may be is slowly corroding the market. My advice is to buy now, not because of real estate values, but because of the availability and low cost of borrowing. And for goodness sake, get a fully amortizing fixed-rate loan. If you have an ARM right now, dump it. Inflation is going to kick in with all this money we're printing and 5% is going to look like a bargain.
What he said ... seriously, when you factor in the real cost of ownership for a home when the money that you are borrowing is so cheap, even if prices dipped a little more, but rates rebound you're looking at tens of thousands of dollars over the life of a loan (assuming that you stay in your home for 10+ years)
Meg McArdle once again makes some excellent points. Sharp cookie, that one. http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/08/housing-market-stuck-in-a-rut/61969/
And the political angle... http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-mon...ousing-report-is-latest-setback-for-democrats This isn't about politics, however. It's a simple pricing discrepancy.
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-...-years-2010-8?utm_source=patrick.net#yui-main I'm not sure I agree with the conclusion, but I'm happy to take advantage of it. Again, it's difficult to make national generalizations on real estate. If you're in CA or FL, you're probably schtupped, no matter the market. However, there are plenty of markets going strong, where supply is low and prices have adjusted.
And housing starts hit the wall: http://hotair.com/archives/2010/08/25/new-home-sales-fall-12-in-july-down-32-from-last-year/
I vote Democrat most of the time, but this is definitely one area that really pisses me off. Why should I pay taxes so that the Federal Government bails out irresponsible borrowers who are living in much nicer houses than mine? There are worse things than having your home repossessed. There's a whole generation of 20-to-early-30 somethings who can't afford to buy a home because pricing is still fucked up. I'm for government intervention in the market when there's significant disparities in opportunity. Should a poor kid get more money to go to college than a rich kid? Sure. Should a rich person pay more in taxes than a poor person? Sure. Should a poor person have the same access to health care as a rich person? Sure. Those are core Democratic values. But this has nothing to do with adjusting for opportunity. A lot of people had the opportunity to be just as responsible as me (and my lender), and they fucked it up badly. There's nothing about being a Democrat that says it's my responsibility to pay for their fuck up. The only way out of this mess is to let the market decide who is worthy of living in their existing home and who isn't.
Those aren't "core Democratic values"; those values are shared by almost every American. Find me a significant group of people who don't believe that poor kids shouldn't have access to school grants or student loans. Find me a significant group of people who believe that rich people shouldn't pay more in gross taxes than poor people. Find me a significant group of people who believe that poor people should have less access to health care than rich people. The Democrats have taken a different tack: They have passed legislation that monopolize and federalize student loans; they are for punishing those who happen to make more money, even though they already pay the lion's share of taxes; and they have passed legislation that will inexorably lead to a single payer system that will lower the access of healthcare for poor people by rationing it (the rich can always pay for their own health care around the globe). Frankly, your positions are closer to the Republicans.
This has been expected for a while by a number of people. The big problem right now there way more supply than demand right now. I think Barry Ritholtz had an article mentioning that this needs to be a huge correction as that excess supply isn't going away in the near future. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/ Obviously it's just an opinion website but he consistently has great information on a variety of topics. Often times the comments on the articles are even better
I would think this issue would make you rethink your Democrat voting habits. Democrats always want to punish achievers and reward non-achievers. It's practically the entire basis of their political philosophy. Ever hear of the government program that pays single moms for every child they have? That's also a brainchild of the Democrats. The Left has enacted so many ridiculous social programs, including welfare programs that keep people dependant on the federal govt. for years, that it's a wonder anyone in this country wants to go out and get a job.
Geez. A guy admits his party isn't right every time, all the time, and watch the other side pile on. This is why politics continue to be so binary. There's no compromise. If somebody admits to flaws in his party, the other side exploits it as, "See?!?! It's systemic! Everything about your party sucks! We only need one part--mine!"