2008-09 Record: 54-28, lost in first round to Houston
Last Season’s FIC Rank: 5th, 11.6
Key Additions: Andre Miller, Juwan Howard
Key Subtractions: Sergio Rodriguez
Key Rookies: Dante Cunnigham
Probable Starters: Steve Blaze, Brandon Roy, Martell Webster, LaMarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden
Point Guard: The Blazers have two very capable veterans in Steve Blake and Andre Miller, plus the 'high upside/ideal skill set to complement Brandon Roy' Jerryd Bayless. To start the season, Nate McMillan has decided to go with Blake as the starter and Miller off the bench with their scary second unit.
Blake is a better perimeter shooter and doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective, which was one of the common criticisms of signing Miller and placing him right beside Miller. Blake has shot over 40% from distance during each of the past two seasons while being fairly consistent in all other areas of the game. He is an underwhelming starter at this position for a team with as much talent everywhere else.
Miller appeared to be on the decline during the 2006-07 season but had a resurgence in his final two Philadelphia seasons, which included playoff appearances. He was never the most athletic point guard and he has been clearly slowed by his mileage, but he still is an inventive playmaker and almost always makes teammates better.
While signing Miller will surely help the Blazers in the short term, I would have liked to see Bayless get a solid 20-25 minutes per night as Blake's backup in a true apprentice role before Blake becomes a free agent next summer. He certainly doesn't have a preternatural feel for the point guard position, but he has all of the tools to work well without the ball beside Roy, while also becoming an excellent defender of opposing point guards. Unfortunately for Bayless, his development will come incredibly sporadically in garbage time unless there is an injury to Blake or Miller.
Swingmen: Brandon Roy isn't in the same category as the NBA's top-five players, but he is second only to Kobe Bryant in terms of creating his own offense. He can score in any situation with a high degree of difficulty and seemingly gets better when the stakes are higher. Roy also, despite being a pure shooting guard, can handle the ball like a point and this allows Portland to go big with with two additional swingman scorers on the floor at the same time as him.
Behind Roy, Portland features the trio of Rudy Fernandez, Martell Webster and Nicolas Batum. Last season, Batum started games, Fernandez finished them and Webster missed all of them.
This year, Webster is back and he begins the season as the starting small forward due to Batum's injury. He is an excellent spot-up shooter and is sneaky athletic, plus he gives Portland a sense of swagger that they don't really possess other than occasional moments from Roy. Webster would be entering his rookie season had he gone to college and remained for a full four years, signifying substantial room for growth despite being in the NBA so long already.
Fernandez was an older rookie, coming over from Spain last season and he had a brilliant TS% of .588. Even in his first season, Fernandez was one of the NBA's better bench scorers and his defense was far from atrocious, particularly when matched up against less physical swingmen.
Batum surprisingly started last season and his main contribution was on the defensive end, but he also had a very good TS% of .555 and his future as a scorer and playmaker, what I liked best about him coming into the 2008 Draft has already begun to be an overlooked aspect of his game.
Frontcourt: The key to Portland's championship aspirations in the long term will be the development of Greg Oden beside LaMarcus Aldridge. They have the capability of becoming perfect complements to one another with Oden's ability down low and Aldridge's touch in the high post. Aldridge had a PER of 19.1 last season, while Oden's was at 18.1; the former's compares to David West long term, while Oden is still in the range of projecting out to Dwight Howard. Oden looks significantly healthier this season and he is still learning how to play defense without fouling, while his teammates still have a steep learning curve on how to use him offensively.
They're backed up by the incredibly useful Travis Outlaw and Joel Przybilla. Outlaw extends the floor well while being able to defend multiple positions. He gives McMillan a level of versatility that few teams can duplicate off the bench.
Przybilla is very comparable to Oden in terms of block and rebound rate and is an even more efficient offensive player, though less dynamic.
Forecast: The 07-08 season was a transition into playing themselves to the edge of the playoffs, 08-09 was a transition to incorporate Oden and become a legitimate, perennial playoff contender and this season should put them out of the first round and into the championship contender category.
Their depth of talent remains extraordinary, but they still have large strides to make in their development to reach the high level of expectations that have been placed on this team since the 2007 Draft.
Being as they won 54 games during the 08-09 season, finishing in that same strata, if not a
few more notches closer to 60 is more than realistic.
