2012 Mock Draft (Blazers): Pick #2

[Ed O]

I've done this in the past, but it's always more exciting when we have a lottery pick (even if it's because we had a poor year previously).

The thinking here is to decide who the Blazers would pick at the currently-polled spot. Pick based on the current roster, even if it's unrealistic that the team could move up without making changes. If the guy you'd prefer isn't listed, vote for "other" and comment on who you'd pick. Ideally I'll change the options, although I don't anticipate too many "others" winning.

I'm going to list the most likely candidates based on information I have at the time of the post for the spot, and the results will accumulate over time, influencing who's available at later spots.

I plan on having each pick up for a day or two. Ideally, we'll end up with the community's "top 11" list, in order of preference, just in time for the draft on June 28.

Previous picks:

1: Anthony Davis (27 votes)

 

[Ed O]

I voted Robinson. He's a bit older than I'd like, and he doesn't block shots, but he's a big guy with skills and some upside. I'd not be worried about Aldridge sliding over to the 5 if we could match him up with another good big guy.

Ed O.

 

[Blaze01]

Yeah I agree, Robinson would be my choice as well.

 

[Miracle Max]

I have to agree on Robinson, the guy is a beast and if we could somehow get the #2 pick (perhaps with our pick and Mathews) I would do it a hot second. Robinson would bring us interior toughness and a "step on your throat" attitude that we don't have. The blazers really need a Carlos Boozer/Brian Grant type player to match up with Aldridge and that could easily be Robinson. If we could do that, we take Lilliard or Marshall at #11 and bring in an experienced PG (Dragic, Nash, etc.) and groom the point guard of the future over the next few years.

This is an important off season, but if we could somehow come out of the draft with Robinson I would be convinced that brighter days are ahead. One other thing about Robinson, the guy is a leader that will come in on day one and be a significant locker room presence. As many of you know he took on the role of guardian for his little sister and has persevered through adversity that many have never had to face at such a young age. He is a high character guy, not the type that will come and spend his days hitting strip clubs and playing video games all night. He has an incredibly bright future and I would love it if that future could be in a blazer uniform.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I think that people who think that Robinson (or to a lesser extent, Sullinger) and LMA would be great together are only thinking about the offensive end. Yes, LMA can play high post if we get a banger down low. But who guards the opponent's best big? If the answer is "LMA" for more than 6-10 mpg, we've failed.

However, if you get MKG, you automatically have one of the better wing defenders in the league and a guy that is unanimously described as having a high motor and work ethic. Think of when Durant was coming out. I'm not saying that MKG is anywhere near as skilled as Durant on the offensive end, but it's a guy who's going to be working hard on his game to get a jumper or tighter handles. He's going to be playing pickup ball during the summers. He's not going to care that he didn't get his 20/10. And, paired with LMA and a scoring guard, he can be the garbageman/hustleman/defensive stopper. I think it's a lot like getting a thicker, younger Central Arkansas Scottie Pippen and letting his offense grow at his own pace in a complimentary role to LMA and whoever, while unleashing him on D and the boards.

And I've yet to see the scout/pundit/talking head that doesn't think this guy's a leader Day One.

 

[DaLincolnJones]

I like your take Brian.

I want to believe that there is a true impact player in this draft..so far my heart cant over ride my brain.

 

[Ed O]

I think that people who think that Robinson (or to a lesser extent, Sullinger) and LMA would be great together are only thinking about the offensive end. Yes, LMA can play high post if we get a banger down low. But who guards the opponent's best big? If the answer is "LMA" for more than 6-10 mpg, we've failed.

I don't see that many bigs out there that can overpower LaMarcus, and I don't see that many bigs out there that get that many offensive looks. Bynum and Howard, for sure, but other than those two I'm not convinced there are (m)any other centers that scare me if Aldridge is guarding them.

MKG looks a bit like Turner from Philly to me: does many things well, but nothing THAT well. Usually that doesn't translate well to the NBA.

Ed O.

 

[BrianFromWA]

It's not that he CAN'T guard them. It's that he can't guard them effectively AND be the number one option on offense. We have two years of proof of that. We have LMA himself saying that.

You don't think MKG is an elite defender and has an elite motor and elite work ethic?

I don't think Turner's a good comparison (and, btw, I'd still love to have him on this team) because Turner's jack-of-all-trades-ness only applied on the offensive end.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I think Robinson's likely impact and potential upside surpass that of MKG, so to be consistent with my previous stances, I'd have to go with Robinson here.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Robinson.

High motor, high IQ big. Double-Double machine from day 1.

Physically, measured better than Blake Griffin across the board. Identical vertical leap, too.

His skill-set perfectly complements LaMarcus. In fact, LaMarcus has always wanted to play with a big like Robinson. Publicly recruiting (via Twitter) Carl Landry last summer -- Robinson is a rich-man's version of that.

 

[Draco]

However, if you get MKG, you automatically have one of the better wing defenders in the league and a guy that is unanimously described as having a high motor and work ethic. Think of when Durant was coming out. I'm not saying that MKG is anywhere near as skilled as Durant on the offensive end, but it's a guy who's going to be working hard on his game to get a jumper or tighter handles. He's going to be playing pickup ball during the summers. He's not going to care that he didn't get his 20/10. And, paired with LMA and a scoring guard, he can be the garbageman/hustleman/defensive stopper. I think it's a lot like getting a thicker, younger Central Arkansas Scottie Pippen and letting his offense grow at his own pace in a complimentary role to LMA and whoever, while unleashing him on D and the boards.

A lot of the same was thought of Corey Brewer coming out. Don't get me wrong I'd take MKG 3rd, but I think its very risky that his elite defense transfers to the NBA. Maybe he only becomes a slightly above average defender, its very unpredictable.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I don't remember anyone saying that Corey Brewer could guard the 1-through-4, had a motor that never quit and that he was already elite around the basket.

And I'd take Robinson #3 over Beal, Drummond and Barnes. But that's for tomorrow.

 

[Draco]

It's not that he CAN'T guard them. It's that he can't guard them effectively AND be the number one option on offense. We have two years of proof of that. We have LMA himself saying that.

I have no idea where you get this idea. Most of our best lineups have been with LaMarcus at center the last two years. I think the issue with our team being undersized with those lineups was Gerald or Batum playing at the 4 spot, not that LaMarcus was undersized as a 5.

I'd actually suspect against most teams it'd be far easier on defense for LaMarcus at the 5 anyways. At the 4 he has to defend and battle with Dirk, Love, Griffin, Zbo, P. Gasol, Ibaka, Millsap just in the west. At the center spot there is Bynum and who? Gortat is probably the next toughest center, I'm not worried about LaMarcus having to play against Gortat instead of Love for most of a game.

 

[Draco]

I don't remember anyone saying that Corey Brewer could guard the 1-through-4, had a motor that never quit and that he was already elite around the basket.

Those sound like traits of good hustle player off the bench. A Bruce Bowen, Shane Battie, Jerome Kersey player. A journeyman who can contribute without scoring. Not the #2 pick in a draft.

 

[RR7]

I think that people who think that Robinson (or to a lesser extent, Sullinger) and LMA would be great together are only thinking about the offensive end. Yes, LMA can play high post if we get a banger down low. But who guards the opponent's best big? If the answer is "LMA" for more than 6-10 mpg, we've failed.

However, if you get MKG, you automatically have one of the better wing defenders in the league and a guy that is unanimously described as having a high motor and work ethic. Think of when Durant was coming out. I'm not saying that MKG is anywhere near as skilled as Durant on the offensive end, but it's a guy who's going to be working hard on his game to get a jumper or tighter handles. He's going to be playing pickup ball during the summers. He's not going to care that he didn't get his 20/10. And, paired with LMA and a scoring guard, he can be the garbageman/hustleman/defensive stopper. I think it's a lot like getting a thicker, younger Central Arkansas Scottie Pippen and letting his offense grow at his own pace in a complimentary role to LMA and whoever, while unleashing him on D and the boards.

And I've yet to see the scout/pundit/talking head that doesn't think this guy's a leader Day One.

And while you say others just focus on offense, with MKG, that focus is just defense. Similar to your Aldridge/Robinson questions, who is your go to wing scorer with Batum and MKG? Who on offense creates their own shots? Who gets looks for others? Similar issues.

 

[42N8Bounce]

Although I would prefer to keep LaMarcus at PF for all of the reasons Brian mentioned, I think if you have an opportunity to pick up a player like Robinson, you have to.

The 10 games that LaMarcus played with Hickson this year, he actually picked up his average from 21.7 to 23.5 ppg. Nothing is a 'sure thing', but right now TRob looks like he will eventually be better than Hickson. I think having another active big out there takes some pressure off of LA. Putting a limited scoring center next to LA (like Drummond) may actually make his offensive game suffer.

 

[BrianFromWA]

You're talking past me.

It doesn't matter what position you call LMA. It doesn't matter if he's undersized or not. What matters to him is that when we play the Clippers, he has to guard Griffin. When we play the Spurs, it's Duncan. When we play the L*kers, it's Bynum or Gasol. When we play MIN, it's love. He's not guarding Gortat. He's guarding Scola. He gets a day off with the Thunder bc of Perk and Ibaka. There aren't many days like that.

Why? BECAUSE THERE ISN'T A BIG THAT'S NEAR HIS SIZE WHO CAN. It doesn't make him a center. It doesn't make him a PF. It doesn't MAKE him anything other than the guy who has to guard the opponent's best big, because Kurt Thomas isn't. Przybilla did. Oden could.

Where I get this idea? Watching, 82games.com, game logs and LMA's quotes. "Most of our best lineups" had LMA at center? 7 did. And only three of them had a positive efficiency. One stellar one was with Hickson playing PF. One was 41 minutes (all year) where they went small with Wes/Crash/LMA at the 3-4-5, and their normal "smallball" lineup with Crawford/Batum/Wallace for 104 minutes. When he played PF, he "beat" his opponent by 8.1 PER. When he played C, it was 3.1. Is that because there are so many "dominant" centers that "wear him down"? No. But thems the stats.

And if we had Thomas Robinson, LMA is still playing Love instead of Gortat. You're helping me make my point.

 

[RR7]

gortat?

 

[Ed O]

And if we had Thomas Robinson, LMA is still playing Love instead of Gortat. You're helping me make my point.

Why do you assume that this is the case? Robinson would seem to match up reasonably well against Love...

Ed O.

 

[RR7]

Why do you assume that this is the case? Robinson would seem to match up reasonably well against Love...

Ed O.

Not only that, but I'd say a big like Joel, or Oden, is a bad matchup to put on guys like Love and Griffin, who can shoot from 18-23 feet, and go right around bigger slower defenders.

Bringing up Gasol and Bynum is pointless, since he HAS to cover one of them, regardless of playing alongside Joel or me.

You mention his PER differential at PF versus C, but that seems irrelevant to me when you mention him having to guard PFs like Griffin and Love. Wouldn't he then be better served at C? No, because of stronger guys, so back to PF. But quicker guys, so back.....wait.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Not only that, but I'd say a big like Joel, or Oden, is a bad matchup to put on guys like Love and Griffin, who can shoot from 18-23 feet, and go right around bigger slower defenders.

Bringing up Gasol and Bynum is pointless, since he HAS to cover one of them, regardless of playing alongside Joel or me.

You mention his PER differential at PF versus C, but that seems irrelevant to me when you mention him having to guard PFs like Griffin and Love. Wouldn't he then be better served at C? No, because of stronger guys, so back to PF. But quicker guys, so back.....wait.

Why would it be irrelevant? When Joel, Camby or Thomas was on the floor LMA didn't have to worry much on D. He was guarding the second-best big. When they weren't, not only was he "playing C" now, but he was also guarding the best big on the floor. And his stats dropped. Not just PER, but PER difference. Quantifiable. And the team didn't exactly play better when he was the biggest guy on the court, either.

Someone help my memory if they can, but I'm pretty sure the Camby was checking Griffin when he was on the floor in the January games. Only when he left the game did LMA check him. And it was like that for everyone up to the trade deadline.

 

[RR7]

Care to show then where 82 games takes into account who he is covering? If he was playing C, with Joel off the floor, or Camby, then who is 82games giving his Opp. PER to? Jordan or Griffin? Probably Jordan, regardless of who he covers, unless they analyze each possession, and I;m pretty sure they do not.

 

[BrianFromWA]

82 games gives you his PER at the positions, his PER difference b/w him and opponent (position) and his 5-man unit splits.

Watching the games, reading post-game quotes and looking at game logs is how I get who he's guarding.

Quick question: are you honestly telling me that you think playing LMA 30+ minutes as the biggest guy on the floor (next to Robinson, or Hickson, or Sullinger, or whoever) is good for this team? And if not, what are you trying to argue, exactly?

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

T-Rob with the landslide victory in this poll!

 

[Draco]

Our team will win more games if we have an above average starting big man to pair with LaMarcus. There are advantages to having LaMarcus at the 4, there are different advantages to having him at the 5. In the end the team should focus on building a roster that wins games, we shouldn't worry about maximizing one players production in a vacuum. If LaMarcus was playing PF alongside Dwight or Bynum they would be a lethal combo. If he was playing center next to Love or Dirk they would be a lethal combo. The level of talent next to LaMarcus is 20x more critical to this teams success then LaMarcus classification as a 4 or 5.

Robinson is the 2nd most talented player in the draft so I would take him 2nd.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

You're talking past me.

It doesn't matter what position you call LMA. It doesn't matter if he's undersized or not. What matters to him is that when we play the Clippers, he has to guard Griffin. When we play the Spurs, it's Duncan. When we play the L*kers, it's Bynum or Gasol. When we play MIN, it's love. He's not guarding Gortat. He's guarding Scola. He gets a day off with the Thunder bc of Perk and Ibaka. There aren't many days like that.

Why? BECAUSE THERE ISN'T A BIG THAT'S NEAR HIS SIZE WHO CAN. It doesn't make him a center. It doesn't make him a PF. It doesn't MAKE him anything other than the guy who has to guard the opponent's best big, because Kurt Thomas isn't. Przybilla did. Oden could.

Where I get this idea? Watching, 82games.com, game logs and LMA's quotes. "Most of our best lineups" had LMA at center? 7 did. And only three of them had a positive efficiency. One stellar one was with Hickson playing PF. One was 41 minutes (all year) where they went small with Wes/Crash/LMA at the 3-4-5, and their normal "smallball" lineup with Crawford/Batum/Wallace for 104 minutes. When he played PF, he "beat" his opponent by 8.1 PER. When he played C, it was 3.1. Is that because there are so many "dominant" centers that "wear him down"? No. But thems the stats.

And if we had Thomas Robinson, LMA is still playing Love instead of Gortat. You're helping me make my point.

Thomas Robinson would guard Love, Griffin, Scola, and would probably be just as good on the rest of the guys you names as well. I don't understand why you're saying LA would have to guard the other teams best big..

 

[RR7]

82 games gives you his PER at the positions, his PER difference b/w him and opponent (position) and his 5-man unit splits.

Watching the games, reading post-game quotes and looking at game logs is how I get who he's guarding.

Quick question: are you honestly telling me that you think playing LMA 30+ minutes as the biggest guy on the floor (next to Robinson, or Hickson, or Sullinger, or whoever) is good for this team? And if not, what are you trying to argue, exactly?

Yes, and just looking at positional PER doesn't say he is worse at C because of covering guys like Griffin.
I don't know if it's good for this team if LMA is the biggest guy on the floor. Of course, alongside Camby, he was still the biggest guy on the floor for us.
What I do believe is we hurt ourselves by continuing to choose to play 4 on 5 with a guy like Joel out there. I believe that there might be some benefit to actually making the guys you mention, Gasol, Love, griffin, etc., work on defense. Because when we trot Joel out there, they don't work. They stand and rest up for offense. And we aren't shutting those guys down on defense. Maybe making them battle with Robinson or Aldridge will tire THEM out, and maybe not being the sole offensive option will help preserve some of Aldridge's energy.