Zombie 2012 NBA Draft

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I tend to think that as well, yet Barnes just canceled his workout with SAC @ #5....

I think if you see Robinson (or anyone else) at #2 on draft night, that will mean they traded the pick...I think if they keep the pick they are going with Barnes...
 
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How about your dream, incompetent GM draft (within reason):

1. Davis (no way around this)
2. Barnes
3. MKG
4. Beal
5. Drummond
6. Robinson
7. PJIII
8. Sullinger
9. Leonard
10. Rivers
11. Lillard/Henson/Lamb/Waiters
 
Reep said:
How about your dream, incompetent GM draft (within reason):

1. Davis (no way around this)
2. Barnes
3. MKG
4. Beal
5. Drummond
6. Robinson
7. PJIII
8. Sullinger
9. Leonard
10. Rivers
11. Lillard/Henson/Lamb/Waiters
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I'd lose it if we can land both T-Rob and Waiters. That would be a great draft.
 
Fez Hammersticks said:
I'd lose it if we can land both T-Rob and Waiters. That would be a great draft.
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id lose it if we got T-rob traded 11 for Turner then signed Dwill(oh okay fine not happening ill take Dragic then). Watching Evans vs Boston made me want him in a Blazers uniform

Sent from my LS670 using Tapatalk 2
 
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Jonathan Givony ‏@DraftExpress
A video analysis of Jared Sullinger (@Jared_Sully0) w/the help of Ohio State game film, @JayBilas, & Sullinger himself.
 
Is 140 pages a record?

I think the reason this goes on and on and ...... is that it's really the first time since 2006 that a draft choice was so important to the Blazers. In 2007 there wasn't a lot of debate, despite the hone once/honk twice billboards; for at least a year it was established that Oden was the #1 pick. (That it did not work out how we expected is of course another story.) The next year the Blazers had a late lotto pick but the core of the team was in place, with Roy, Aldridge, Oden and with Batum & Rudy as well. Just needed a decent complementary player, not a major piece.

So now for the first time in 6 years the Blazers are in a high risk and potential high reward situation. 140 pages and counting. And I'd bet there will be nearly as many pages debating who the Blazers actually do end up with. Fun but also nerve-wrackin.g
 
Just my humble opinion, but knowing Olshey loves those high school all American's, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Drummond and Rivers are our picks, if we decide to keep them, and if they are available when we pick
 
Mediocre Man said:
Just my humble opinion, but knowing Olshey loves those high school all American's, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Drummond and Rivers are our picks,
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I would seriously consider giving up watching basketball if that happened. Drummond is bad enough, but Rivers?

2. Austin Rivers: Win Score (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule and Position): 3.1 (Just Awful)

Just for fun, here’s a list of college shooting guards who played at least 500 minutes and were more productive than Austin Rivers:

Aaron Graham, Alan Jones, Alex Marcotullio, Alzee Williams, Ameer Ali, Andre Dawkins, Andrew Ferry, Anson Winder, Anthony Downing, Anthony Marshall, Anthony Myers, Anthony Raffa, Antonio Barton, Arlon Harper, Austin Hollins, B.J. Young, Ben Brust, Ben Drayton, Bernard Thompson, Billy Baron, Blake Allen, Brady Heslip, Brandon Richardson, Brandon Thompson, Brandon Triche, Brandon Wheeless, Brandon Wood, Brayden Carlson, Brett Olson, Brian Bryant, Brian Walsh, Briante Weber, Bryce Cotton, Bryson Johnson, C.J. Harris, C.J. Williams, Cameron Ayers, Charles Abouo, Charles Winborne, Charlon Kloof, Chase Tapley, Chasson Randle, Chris Crawford, Chris McNealy, Chris Perez, Chris Smith, Christian Moon, Christophe Varidel, Christopher Tolson, Corey Maynard, Corey Wickware, Coron Williams, Corvonn Gaines, D.J. Brown, Dane Smith, D'Angelo Harrison, Daniel Mullings, Dantrell Thomas, Darian Norris, Darian Thibodeaux, Darien Brothers, Darion Rackley, Darius Johnson-Odom, Darius Miller, David Kyles, DaVonte Lacy, Daylon Guy, Deividas Dulkys, DeJuan Wright, Demetrius Ward, Derek Jackson, Deremy Geiger, Desmond Wade, Devoe Joseph, Dimitri Batten, Dion Dixon, Dion Waiters, D'Mitri Riggs, Dominic Cheek, Dominique Buckley, Dontay Hampton, Dorian Green, Doron Lamb, Doug Davis, Drew Hanlen, Dustin Ware, Dylan Royer, Dylon Cormier, Elijah Johnson, Eric Atkins, Eric Evans, Francisco Cruz, Frank Massenat, Gary Bell, Gary Browne, Gerardo Suero, Greg Gantt, Harold Washington, Hugh Greenwood, Ian Miller, Isaiah Sykes, Isaiah Wilkerson, Isiah Umipig, J.P. Kuhlman, J.R. Cadot, Jack Isenbarger, Jahenns Manigat, James Fields, James Kinney, Jared Cunningham, Jared Maree, Jarvis Jones, Jason Calliste, J'Covan Brown, Jean Harris, Jeff Early, Jeff Elorriaga, Jeff Jones, Jeremiah Kelly, Jeremy Ingram, Jeremy Lamb, Jerime Andersen, Jewuan Long, Joel Smith, John Jenkins, Johnny Dee, Johnny Moran, Jordair Jett, Jordan Burgason, Jorge Gutierrez, Joseph Young, Josh Johnson, Josh Jones, Justin Edwards, Justin Hawkins, Kaipo Sabas, Kannon Burrage, Karl Cochran, Keaton Cole, Keith Gabriel, Keith Pickens, Ken Cerroni, Kendall Anthony, Kendrix Brown, Kenny Boynton, Kevin Dukes, Kevin Foster, Kevin Foster, Kevin Pangos, Khalif Wyatt, Khris Middleton, Kyle Boswell, Kyle Fogg, LaMarcus Reed, Lamont Jones, Langston Galloway, Larry Anderson, Lasan Kromah, Lenzelle Smith Jr., London Giles, Lorne Merthie, Mackey McKnight, Malik Story, Marcos Knight, Mardracus Wade, Mark Lyons, Matt Brown, Matt Dickey, Matt Gatens, Matt Griffin, Matt Pressey, Michael Harper, Mike James, Mike McCall, Myles Mack, Nic Simpson, Nick Niernczyk, Nori Johnson, Oliver McNally, Parker Smith, Preston Medlin, Preston Purifoy, Raijon Kelly, Ramon Galloway, Randal Holt, Rayvonte Rice, Reggie Bullock, Reggie Chamberlain, Robert Olson, Robert Williams, Roberto Nelson, Ryan Boatright, Ryne Smith, Sam Maniscalco, Sammy Zeglinski, Sandro Carissimo, Scott Christopherson, Sei Paye, Seth Curry, Shane Gibson, Shane Larkin, Shaquille Johnson, Shay Shine, Sheldon Cooley, Stephen Holt, Stephon Carter, Steven Pledger, Stu Douglass, T.J. DiLeo, T.T. Carey, Taevaunn Prince, Tevin Svihovec, Tim Peete, Tony Nixon, Tony Wroten, Travis Smith, Trent Lockett, Trevon Harmon, Trevor Gaskins, Trevor Lacey, Trey Finn, Troy Taylor, Tyler Johnson, Tyler Lee, Tyrus McGee, TyShwan Edmondson, Walter Offutt, Warren Niles, Wesley Davis, Westly Perryman, Will Bogan, Worrel Clahar, Zach Bailey, Zach Filzen

And that’s not even considering the college small forwards that would play shooting guard if they were in the NBA. Ok, that’s fine, maybe Rivers is really bad at one stat that brings his win score down, but good in places that give him promise. Let’s look at how he compares to his peers:

Austin Rivers compared to Draft Express Top 100 Shooting Guards. All stats are adjusted to per 40 minutes.
Code: 
Player 	DE Top 100 SG 	Austin Rivers
Effective Field Goal % 	0.538 	0.505
True Shooting % 	0.589 	0.551
3 Point Shooting % 	0.386 	0.365
Free Throw % 	   0.772 	0.658
Offensive Rebounds 	1.16 	0.74
Defensive Rebounds 	4.00 	3.33
Total Rebounds 	   5.17 	4.07
Assists 	   2.60 	2.52
Steals 	   1.51 	1.17
Blocks 	   0.51 	0.04
Turnovers    	2.27 	2.80
Personal Fouls    	2.29 	2.69
Points!    	20.23 	18.67
Win Score   	5.26 	1.88

I haven’t seen that much red since, well since last time I argued that Austin Rivers is a bad draft prospect. This guy can’t even score points! at an above average rate, what exactly does he bring to the table? His dad was good? Chad Ford sums it up (unintentionally) hilariously well:

Extremely confident
Good shooter with deep range
Sick crossover move, very quick
Nice floater
Skilled ball handler
Has a killer instinct on the floor

Is that list serious? He’s extremely confident? Tupac was extremely confident, but I didn’t want him on my basketball team. He has a “sick” crossover move? That’s analysis? Hot Sauce had a sick crossover move, but I didn’t want him on my NBA basketball team. Rivers can’t be that great of a shooter or he’d have better shooting percentages. He has a nice floater? Great. So why doesn’t he shoot a higher percentage or score more? He has a killer instinct. The list sells itself. If you like watching shows like Ghost Hunters or Finding Bigfoot, take Austin Rivers in the lottery. I’ll stick with guys who are objectively good.
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Rastapopoulos said:
I would seriously consider giving up watching basketball if that happened. Drummond is bad enough, but Rivers?
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Off of that same site, with his underrated prospects, he goes on and on about Crowder. And to me, he just comes across as...I dunno, someone who goes too far into the numbers that they don't understand somewhat simple concepts. If Crowder is so bad at creating shots, why does he shoot such a high percentage with the second highest usage rate on his team? Uhm, really? So if I find you open under the basket for an easy two, or we isolate you on the wing to create your own shot, he can't understand the difference here? It's like someone calling Shaq a bad shooter, and then someone saying he's not because his FG% is 60%.

His will to win is impressive and his versatility is almost unparalleled in college basketball. But ESPN’s Chad Ford lists him as 58th on his Big Board, and Draft Express has him at #48 of its Top 100 Prospects. There are 60 spots in the NBA draft. So, evidently, he’ll be lucky to get drafted late in the second round. Big East Player of the Year; undrafted. With this alarming discrepancy, there’s gotta be something wrong with Crowder, right? So, what do the experts say? According to Jonathan Givony at Draft Express,

Crowder’s biggest weakness as a small forward prospect is his inability to create his own shot. A below average ball-handler, he has a difficult time scoring in isolation settings, not looking very fluid with the ball, and struggling to change directions on the fly.

With all due respect to Mr. Givony, this doesn’t tell us a whole lot. The notion of “creating” shots has been explored extensively on this site in the past; it’s hard to define, harder to measure, and frankly, an overrated skill. Yes, there is some value in getting yourself open. But that value will generally show up in the stat sheet – as a made shot or as an assist for finding the open man when his defender rotates to guard you. If Crowder is so bad at creating shots, why does he shoot such a high percentage with the second highest usage rate on his team? Besides, we’re not talking about a guy here that you want chucking up 30 shots a night. Crowder is the kind of player you want doing a little bit of everything for you. As for his below average ball-handling and difficulty in isolation settings, I have a simple solution: don’t make him your point guard and don’t run isolation sets for him! To build on the ball-handling criticism, I can’t see how you can be concerned about a guy who turns the ball over 1.60 times per 40 minutes and only 7.1 times for every 100 possessions he uses (for those of you who don’t pay attention to turnover numbers, Crowder is really good at not turning the ball over)!
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Right now a draft I like is Lillard at 6 and Terrence Ross at 11.

I would like to see us go for someone like O'quinn or Ezeli with our 2nd rounder if one of them is still there. Then sign a Point guard like Eric Maynor (if he's healthy), Re-sign Batum and Hickson and you even have cap-room left with this lineup:

Lillard/Maynor
Ross/E-Will
Batum/Mathewss
Aldridge/Hickson
Hickson/Ezeli
 
Rivers was a freshman, playing on a Duke team lacking talent and he took\forced a lot of shots...that is why certain stats do not bear out in his favor....Statistics are a valuable tool when evalutating a player, but like RR7's post alluded to, you cannot SOLELY rely on those to accurately forecast how a player will translate his game, specifically a younger player, in the NBA...
 
That's not my only reason for hatin' on Rivers. I've watched him play and I don't like his game. He's an inefficient scorer and doesn't do anything else.
 
Probasketballdraft ‏@Probballdraft
Mock Draft will be posted later this afternoon. Stay tuned in the mean time check out the newest draft nuggets. http://probasketballdraft.com/78-featurearticles/530-nba-draft-log-619.html

According to several sources around the league don't be surprised if Damian Lillard cracks the top top-6. Lillard worked out for the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday and reportedly dazzled, putting on a shooting clinic. Lillard was so impressive that there are some in the Blazers front office that are convinced the Blazers must select Lillard at 6 or risk losing him as the Raptors, and Hornets are very likely destinations for the draft's top point guard.
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Other than than his lack of testing against a full season of top college talent, I see no reason in his performance or metrics that indicate taking him at 6 would be a mistake. Given that the Blazers have looked very diligently at the other options, if they take Lillard at 6 then I will be excited that we have a very dynamic PG to put in our lineup. I think the guy could be really fun to watch. A consistent 3pt threat who can also drive and throw it down on occasion? What's not to like.
 
Reep said:
Other than than his lack of testing against a full season of top college talent, I see no reason in his performance or metrics that indicate taking him at 6 would be a mistake. Given that the Blazers have looked very diligently at the other options, if they take Lillard at 6 then I will be excited that we have a very dynamic PG to put in our lineup. I think the guy could be really fun to watch. A consistent 3pt threat who can also drive and throw it down on occasion? What's not to like.
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I understand it is a small sample size, but here are Lillard's numbers vs "better conference teams"

St. Mary's 36/3/2. 11-18 shooting
BYU 15/2/10. 5-12 shooting
Cal 14/3/3. 4-17 shooting
Utah 25/5/3. 7-15 shooting
Loyola Marymount 27/2/6. 6-17 shooting


As a freshman he had 26 points against Cincinnati in the NIT
 
Mediocre Man said:
I understand it is a small sample size, but here are Lillard's numbers vs "better conference teams"

St. Mary's 36/3/2. 11-18 shooting
BYU 15/2/10. 5-12 shooting
Cal 14/3/3. 4-17 shooting
Utah 25/5/3. 7-15 shooting
Loyola Marymount 27/2/6. 6-17 shooting


As a freshman he had 26 points against Cincinnati in the NIT
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The problem I have with this type of comparison is that it assumes that if you increase the level of talent in the competing team, that it gives an accurate picture of what Lillard as an individual can do. This is not the case. You put Weber State against a much better team, and they are totally going to collapse on Lillard, because nobody else is going to hurt them. His numbers should be way down. The only way to make this comparison would be to put Lillard on a high level team and compete against a high level team--which of course can't be done.

Reading too much into games where a high level team can focus on the weaker teams one solid asset is a mistake IMHO.

How well did Portland do after the trades this year, when teams only had to worry about LMA? Does that mean LMA isn't a good player?
 
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Mediocre Man said:
I understand it is a small sample size, but here are Lillard's numbers vs "better conference teams"

St. Mary's 36/3/2. 11-18 shooting
BYU 15/2/10. 5-12 shooting
Cal 14/3/3. 4-17 shooting
Utah 25/5/3. 7-15 shooting
Loyola Marymount 27/2/6. 6-17 shooting


As a freshman he had 26 points against Cincinnati in the NIT
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I'm hoping Portland is attempting to create a smokescreen, in an effort to get another team to trade up to 4-5 to draft Lillard, thereby causing one of the other guys to drop.
 
Reep said:
The problem I have with this type of comparison is that it assumes that if you increase the level of talent in the competing team, that it gives an accurate picture of what Lillard as an individual can do. This is not the case. You put Weber State against a much better team, and they are totally going to collapse on Lillard, because nobody else is going to hurt them. His numbers should be way down. The only way to make this comparison would be to put Lillard on a high level team and compete against a high level team--which of course can't be done.

Reading too much into games where a high level team can focus on the weaker teams one solid asset is a mistake IMHO.
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I remember watching Batum during his first Summer League (and yes, I realize it's only summer league). Dude looked absolutely terrible and I lost. I liked his body frame and length and athleticism, but SL made it clear he was a year or two away. Everyone expected him to go back to Europe for at least one season. And yet, he stayed with the team, and when playing with true pro ballplayers, he was a much better player himself.

You cannot put too much stock into one simple thing. You have to balance the game performance with interviews, workouts, measurements, etc. And then, in the end, sometimes you just have to go with gut. And also perhaps rely on a bit of luck.
 
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