2017 Blazers Playoff Odds - Let's Try this Again

[Boob-No-More]

We already have multiple threads about the upcoming draft. So, I think we also need one about our chances of making the playoffs.

Please: No thread crapping with talk of the lottery and the draft, we already have several threads on those topics. Please keep this thread on topic and discuss those subjects in the appropriate threads.

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/5/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 36-46
Odds of Making the Playoffs = 24.0%

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 36-46
Odds of Making the Playoffs = 26%

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 35.8-46.2
Odds of Making the Playoffs = 22.4%

Consensus:
Projected Record = 36-46
Odds of Making the Playoffs = 24.1%

I'll try to update this thread with the latest projections after every Blazers game.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/10/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 37-45
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 47.0%
Change = +23.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 38-44
Change = +2 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 35.0%
Change = +9.0%

Projected Finish = 9th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 36.7-45.3
Change = + 0.9 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 25.6%
Change = +3.2%

Projected Finish = 9th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 37-45
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 35.9%
Change = +11.8%

BNM

 

[Sinobas]

Now we know, GI JOE!!

 

[Mediocre Man]

You forgot to include Kingspeeds prediction of 7th.....now 6th

 

[Trackjack]

My projection is 38 wins with 8th seed.

 

[Nikolokolus]

My projection is 38 wins with 8th seed.

Yay?

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/13/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 36-46
Change = -1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 27.4%
Change = +-19.6%

Projected Finish = 9th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 37-45
Change = -1 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 32.0%
Change = -3.0%

Projected Finish = 9th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 36.8-45.2
Change = +0.1 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 24.1%
Change = -1.5%

Projected Finish = 9th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 37-45
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 27.8%
Change = -8.1%

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/13/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 36-46
Change = -1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 27.4%
Change = +-19.6%

Projected Finish = 9th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 37-45
Change = -1 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 32.0%
Change = -3.0%

Projected Finish = 9th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 36.8-45.2
Change = +0.1 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 24.1%
Change = -1.5%

Projected Finish = 9th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 37-45
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 27.8%
Change = -8.1%

BNM

These latest projections assume the Blazers go 7-10, 8-9, 8-9 and that DEN goes 7-9, 8-8, 8-8.

DEN has 7 remaining home games and 9 away.
POR has 10 remaining home games and 7 away.

DEN Strength of Schedule for remaining games = .531
POR Strength of Schedule for remaining games = .489

We need to win 2 more games than DEN to tie them in the final standings (we currently hold both the first and second tie breakers over DEN), but have more games at home and an easier schedule than they do.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/15/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 37-45
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 31.2%
Change = +3.8%

Projected Finish = 9th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 37-45
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 22.0%
Change = -10.0%

Projected Finish = 9th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 36.2-45.8
Change = -0.6 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 14.3%
Change = -9.8%

Projected Finish = 9th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 37-45
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 22.5%
Change = -5.3%

BNM

 

[Mediocre Man]

Can't wait til I see 10th or 11th

 

[Boob-No-More]

DEN has 6 remaining home games and 9 away.
POR has 10 remaining home games and 6 away.

DEN has 8 remaining games against => .500 teams (4 home and 4 away) and 7 remaining games against =< .500 teams (2 home and 5 away).
POR has 6 remaining games against => .500 teams (3 home and 3 away) and 10 remaining games against =< .500 teams (6 home and 4 away).

DEN Strength of Schedule for remaining games = .552
POR Strength of Schedule for remaining games = .490

We need to win 3 more games than DEN to tie them in the final standings (we currently hold both the first and second tie breakers over DEN), but have more games at home and an easier schedule than they do.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/16/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 36-46
Change = -1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 24.2%
Change = -7.0%

Projected Finish = 9th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 38-44
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 33.0%
Change = +11.0%%

Projected Finish = 9th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 37.1-44.9
Change = +0.9 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 22.4%
Change = +8.1%

Projected Finish = 9th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 37-45
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 26.5%
Change = +5.0%

BNM

 

[KingSpeed]

Only 6-8 wins in our last 15, lol? Uh no. We'll win at LEAST 9, possibly as much as 12.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Only 6-8 wins in our last 15, lol? Uh no. We'll win at LEAST 9, possibly as much as 12.

Those numbers are based on simulations. The same simulations that gave us a 10% chance of winning last night. That's why they play the games.

BNM

 

[KingSpeed]

Those numbers are based on simulations. The same simulations that gave us a 10% chance of winning last night. That's why they play the games.

BNM

I like that 538 gives the Heat a shot at the title but not us. We are gonna surprise people in the playoffs. We are much better than our record.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I like that 538 gives the Heat a shot at the title but not us. We are gonna surprise people in the playoffs. We are much better than our record.

Well, we have to make the playoffs first, which is what this thread is about.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/19/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds: Note: ESPN just updated their Playoff Odds
Projected Record = 38-44
Change = +2 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 50%
Change = +25.8

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 55.0%
Change = +22.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 37.1-44.9
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 33.1%
Change = +10.7%

Projected Finish = 9th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 38-44
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 46.0%
Change = +19.5%

BNM

 

[Kaydow]

If we do nab that #8 seed, should we be satisfied? Or do you favor Olshey logic that we were 6 points away from HCA and a top 4 seed?

 

[Rhal]

If we do nab that #8 seed, should we be satisfied? Or do you favor Olshey logic that we were 6 points away from HCA and a top 4 seed?

When did NO say this? I must have missed it.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/13/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 36-46
Change = -1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 27.4%
Change = +-19.6%

Projected Finish = 9th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 37-45
Change = -1 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 32.0%
Change = -3.0%

Projected Finish = 9th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 36.8-45.2
Change = +0.1 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 24.1%
Change = -1.5%

Projected Finish = 9th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 37-45
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 27.8%
Change = -8.1%

BNM

They dont know anything....

 

[Boob-No-More]

Just edited my post to include updated ESPN Playoff Odds.

That's more like it!

BNM

 

[Orion Bailey]

Gasol goes down with a knee injury and they go on a free fall and we go with the 7th see and we get their lotto pick.

Best scenario possible in my book!

 

[Road Ratt]

Currently as of today, before the Miami Heat game at 3pm, the schedules for both teams show:

Blazers: 10 home 4 road games

Nuggets: 4 home 9 road games

Both teams meet in Portland on Tuesday Mar 28, which will of course be a huge game.

This schedule favors the Blazers, at least by home vs. road games left. I haven't factored in the records of the teams they both have left to play.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

The Blazers now have a greater chance to make the playoffs than Denver, according to ESPN...

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/19/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds: Note: ESPN just updated their Playoff Odds
Projected Record = 38-44
Change = +2 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 50%
Change = +25.8

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 55.0%
Change = +22.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 37.1-44.9
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 33.1%
Change = +10.7%

Projected Finish = 9th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 38-44
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 46.0%
Change = +19.5%

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

The Blazers now have a greater chance to make the playoffs than Denver, according to ESPN...

And FiveThirtyEight, who have us at 55% odds of making it. They only give DEN a 39% chance.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Currently as of today, before the Miami Heat game at 3pm, the schedules for both teams show:

Blazers: 10 home 4 road games

Nuggets: 4 home 9 road games

Both teams meet in Portland on Tuesday Mar 28, which will of course be a huge game.

This schedule favors the Blazers, at least by home vs. road games left. I haven't factored in the records of the teams they both have left to play.

Strength of Schedule for remaining games:

DEN = .561
POR = .457

BNM

 

[Orion Bailey]

Strength of Schedule for remaining games:

DEN = .561
POR = .457

BNM

Wow. That combine with home/road games for each team and I cant believe we aren't favored more to take the 8th seed.
Seriously. We have the two best players form either of the two teams.

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

Consensus:
Projected Record = 36-46
Odds of Making the Playoffs = 24.1%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

I think we've all seen similar odds before

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Wow. That combine with home/road games for each team and I cant believe we aren't favored more to take the 8th seed.
Seriously. We have the two best players form either of the two teams.

Um, we are.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Wow. That combine with home/road games for each team and I cant believe we aren't favored more to take the 8th seed.
Seriously. We have the two best players form either of the two teams.

I disagree. Jokic is probably better than Dame.