2017 Blazers Playoff Odds - Let's Try this Again

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

I disagree. Jokic is probably better than Dame.

Woah. So you rather have the ball in Jokic's hands than Dame's at the end of a game?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Woah. So you rather have the ball in Jokic's hands than Dame's at the end of a game?

I'm saying that Jokic can do more things to impact a game over the course of 48 minutes than Dame can. Who has the ball at the end of a game is a very small part of the overall caliber of a player.

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

I'm saying that Jokic can do more things to impact a game over the course of 48 minutes than Dame can. Who has the ball at the end of a game is a very small part of the overall caliber of a player.

We will just have to agree to disagree here, I like Jokic but I think an elite guard is better than a borderline all-star center. I'd honestly take both Dame and CJ before Jokic.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

We will just have to agree to disagree here, I like Jokic but I think an elite guard is better than a borderline all-star center. I'd honestly take both Dame and CJ before Jokic.

Find me an advanced stat where Dame is better than Jokic and I might agree with you. Dame gets TOV%, and...that's about it.

 

[KingSpeed]

Gasol goes down with a knee injury and they go on a free fall and we go with the 7th see and we get their lotto pick.

Best scenario possible in my book!

If Grizzlies win lotto, though, we don't get the pick, right?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

If Grizzlies win lotto, though, we don't get the pick, right?

Only top-5 protected, I believe.

 

[Sinobas]

Blazers already have the tie breaker against Denver locked up, and we play them again, and they have a harder schedule. So our chances of making it now are very high.

 

[Chris Craig]

Wow. That combine with home/road games for each team and I cant believe we aren't favored more to take the 8th seed.
Seriously. We have the two best players form either of the two teams.

The three best players

 

[illmatic99]

God that Washington game man. Freakin refs

 

[Orion Bailey]

Um, we are.

I said more. Favored more than what we are.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I said more. Favored more than what we are.

We are. FiveThirtyEight now has us at a 71% chance of making the playoffs finishing with a 40-42 record.

BNM

 

[Orion Bailey]

We are. FiveThirtyEight now has us at a 71% chance of making the playoffs finishing with a 40-42 record.

BNM

Right, but I said that BEFORE this game when it was at 58% you had posted. At THAT time I would have thought it more of a 65-70% chance.

 

[e_blazer]

We are. FiveThirtyEight now has us at a 71% chance of making the playoffs finishing with a 40-42 record.

BNM

E-blazer has us at 100% with a 42-40 record. Screw those pessimists at FiveThirtyEight. Anyone not excited about seeing this team play the Warriors in the first round doesn't have a pulse (or is a Nuggets fan).

 

[Trackjack]

I never go by them people predication due to have great chance we still have to play the games.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/20/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 61.3%
Change = +11.3

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 40-42
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 71.0%
Change = +16.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 38.6-43.4
Change = +1.5 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 43.8%
Change = +10.7%

Projected Finish = 9th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 58.7%
Change = +12.5%

Although basketball-reference still has us missing the playoffs, this is the first time the consensus has us making it.

BNM

 

[Orion Bailey]

Still only 58% chance of making it???


Get outa here with that noise...

 

[Boob-No-More]

DEN has 4 remaining home games and 9 away.
POR has 10 remaining home games and 3 away.

DEN has 6 remaining games against => .500 teams (2 home and 4 away) and 7 remaining games against =< .500 teams (2 home and 5 away).
POR has 4 remaining games against => .500 teams (3 home and 1 away) and 9 remaining games against =< .500 teams (7 home and 2 away).

DEN Strength of Schedule for remaining games = .562
POR Strength of Schedule for remaining games = .441

We need to win 1 more game than DEN to tie them in the final standings (we currently hold both the first and second tie breakers over DEN), but have more games at home and an easier schedule than they do.

BNM

 

[illmatic99]

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Next games up:
Denver at Houston
Milwaukee at Portland

 

[BrianFromWA]

Jk. great work, BNM.

9-6 with Nurkic with wins over 5 playoff teams.

That's the pace of a 50 win team, and we have 10 of 13 at home to finish. and I'm not counting that we should've won vs WAS

 

[Boob-No-More]

Still only 58% chance of making it???


Get outa here with that noise...

Don't shoot the messenger. That's what the simulations say. Just based on observing how the odds have changed over the last month, it appears basketball-reference weights their simulation more on season long results, where the other two seem to use a more "what have you done for me lately" approach. That explains why the basketball-reference playoff probabilities are less volatile than the other two. They are the slowest to react to recent trends.

In any case, even with basketball reference having us at below 50% odds of making the playoffs, they don't really, not quite. They project us to win 38.6 games and DEN to win 39.0. Since you can't win 0.6 games, if you round us up to 39 wins, they would have us in a tie with DEN and we currently hold the first and second tie breakers with DEN.

The first tie breaker is head to head record. We are currently 2-1 against DEN. If we lose the game in Portland on the 28th, and we finish in a tie with DEN, it will come down second tie breaker.

The second tie breaker is division record. Our division record is currently 7-3 with 6 games to go. If we lose all 6, we finish with a 7-9 division record. DEN's current division record is 5-8 with 3 games to go. If they win all three, they will finish with an 8-8 division record. It's highly doubtful we lose all six remaining division games (MIN, DEN, @MIN, @UTA, MIN, UTA)and also highly doubtful DEN wins all three (@POR, OKC and @OKC), but that's the only way they win the tie breaker.

Of course the simplest way to ensure we own the tie breaker is to beat DEN on the 28th.

BNM

 

[BosnianChampion]

Still only 58% chance of making it???


Get outa here with that noise...

I bet Wednesday it will look better for us!

 

[e_blazer]

DEN has 4 remaining home games and 9 away.
POR has 10 remaining home games and 3 away.

DEN has 6 remaining games against => .500 teams (2 home and 4 away) and 7 remaining games against =< .500 teams (2 home and 5 away).
POR has 4 remaining games against => .500 teams (3 home and 1 away) and 9 remaining games against =< .500 teams (7 home and 2 away).

DEN Strength of Schedule for remaining games = .562
POR Strength of Schedule for remaining games = .441

We need to win 1 more game than DEN to tie them in the final standings (we currently hold both the first and second tie breakers over DEN), but have more games at home and an easier schedule than they do.

BNM

Nice work, BMM. A couple of other points: Two of the Blazers' 3 remaining road games are against teams with losing records (Lakers and Wolves), and we have no back-to-backs remaining on the schedule.

 

[illmatic99]

Nice work, BMM. A couple of other points: Two of the Blazers' 3 remaining road games are against teams with losing records (Lakers and Wolves), and we have no back-to-backs remaining on the schedule.

We have 2 back to back sets left.

25/26th: vs Minny, @ LAL

3rd/4th: @Minny, @ UTA

That Minny-Utah-Minny-Utah-Spurs stretch is a bit concerning to me

 

[e_blazer]

We have 2 back to back sets left.

25/26th: vs Minny, @ LAL

3rd/4th: @Minny, @ UTA

That Minny-Utah-Minny-Utah-Spurs stretch is a bit concerning to me

Crap! That's what I get for just taking a quick look at the schedule on my phone.

Yeah, the TWolves aren't a team to take lightly, the way they've been playing lately, and Utah and the Spurs...well their records speak for themselves.

 

[Boob-No-More]

It's nice to see this thread finally getting more traction than all the lottery/tanking threads. The draft threads are still important, as we currently have three 1st round picks, but it's nice to see some renewed optimism around here about the team actually winning.

BNM

 

[PDXFonz]

Wonder how many of the sims are won/lost based off the result of the head to head matchup. If we are ahead of them going into that matchup and win it then we will be heavily favored.

 

[BoBoBREWSKI]

Next games up:
Denver at Houston
Milwaukee at Portland

and Denver plays Cleveland after Houston, we play New York after Milwaukee.

 

[BosnianChampion]

and Denver plays Cleveland after Houston, we play New York after Milwaukee.

I hope our luck is still good! That feels like one of those games we should win but don't.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Wonder how many of the sims are won/lost based off the result of the head to head matchup. If we are ahead of them going into that matchup and win it then we will be heavily favored.

Winning that game against DEN at home on the 28th would be huge. In addition to gaining a game on them in the standings it would lock up the tie breaker. Since we would own the tie breaker, at that point, the roles would become reversed. We would no longer be chasing DEN, they would be chasing us.

BNM