2017 Blazers Playoff Odds - Let's Try this Again

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e_blazer said:
Crap! That's what I get for just taking a quick look at the schedule on my phone.

Yeah, the TWolves aren't a team to take lightly, the way they've been playing lately, and Utah and the Spurs...well their records speak for themselves.
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It's baffling to me why the Wolves are mediocre while KAT and Rubio are both having the best stretch in both their careers.

KAT is at 29/12 on 62/43/75 shooting splits since the AS break (Good Lord, those shooting numbers).
Rubio is at 16/11/4 on 47/42/88 shooting splits since the AS break.

And they're only 6-6, currently on a 3 game losing streak. Still, I don't like the idea of playing them three more times.
 
yuyuza1 said:
It's baffling to me why the Wolves are mediocre while KAT and Rubio are both having the best stretch in both their careers.

KAT is at 29/12 on 62/43/75 shooting splits since the AS break (Good Lord, those shooting numbers).
Rubio is at 16/11/4 on 47/42/88 shooting splits since the AS break.

And they're only 6-6, currently on a 3 game losing streak. Still, I don't like the idea of playing them three more times.
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Wiggins shooting like Rubio used to (41%/29%) probably doesn't help.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
Wiggins shooting like Rubio used to (41%/29%) probably doesn't help.
Click to expand...

Yep, lack of experience + lack of depth = lack of wins.

The lack of experience has been a problem all season (and last season as well). And now that LaVine is lost for the season their lack of depth is really taking a toll. With Dieng and Brandon Rush, they have two starters that struggle to combine to score 10 points on many nights. So, that leaves them playing 2 and a half on 5 on offense on most nights. Teams know KAT is going to get his, so they focus on shutting down Wiggins and dare Rubio to beat them.

Wiggins scoring average is only down about 2 ppg since LaVine went down, but as opposing defenses have focused on him his efficiently has gone down the toilet. Even with Rubio shooting better (because he's largely unguarded), he's not the kind of offensive talent that can put a team on his back and carry them to victory.

I know MIN management is enamored with their youth, but I bet Tom Thibodeau would gladly trade some of that youth for someone who actually knows how to win.

BNM
 
So what is the tie breaker when we are tied with denver in wins and losses? I know i should know but i dont.
 
jonnyboy said:
So what is the tie breaker when we are tied with denver in wins and losses? I know i should know but i dont.
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Already covered that earlier today in this very thread:

Boob-No-More said:
The second tie breaker is division record. Our division record is currently 7-3 with 6 games to go. If we lose all 6, we finish with a 7-9 division record. DEN's current division record is 5-8 with 3 games to go. If they win all three, they will finish with an 8-8 division record. It's highly doubtful we lose all six remaining division games (MIN, DEN, @MIN, @UTA, MIN, UTA) and also highly doubtful DEN wins all three (@POR, OKC and @OKC), but that's the only way they win the tie breaker.
Click to expand...

BNM
 
With DEN's 1-point loss to HOU tonight, FiveThirtyEight now has us at a 74% chance of making the playoffs and DEN down to 24%.

FiveThirtyEight is always the first to post their updates. I'll update this thread with the other projections tomorrow morning after they have been posted on ESPN and basketball-reference.com.

BNM
 
KingSpeed said:
Thanks. You forgot if we lose all 6, we wouldn't be in a tie to be broken anyway.
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How do you figure?

If we go 7-6 and DEN goes 6-6, both teams end with identical 39-43 records. If we lose to DEN on the 28th, we end up 2-2 in head to head games. That then leaves the division records as the tie breaker.

The only way the second tie breaker comes into play is if lose to DEN on the 28th.

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
How do you figure?

If we go 7-6 and DEN goes 6-6, both teams end with identical 39-43 records. If we lose to DEN on the 28th, we end up 2-2 in head to head games. That then leaves the division records as the tie breaker.

The only way the second tie breaker comes into play is if lose to DEN on the 28th.

BNM
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Gotcha. Thanks.
 
Boob-No-More said:
Yep, lack of experience + lack of depth = lack of wins.

The lack of experience has been a problem all season (and last season as well). And now that LaVine is lost for the season their lack of depth is really taking a toll. With Dieng and Brandon Rush, they have two starters that struggle to combine to score 10 points on many nights. So, that leaves them playing 2 and a half on 5 on offense on most nights. Teams know KAT is going to get his, so they focus on shutting down Wiggins and dare Rubio to beat them.

Wiggins scoring average is only down about 2 ppg since LaVine went down, but as opposing defenses have focused on him his efficiently has gone down the toilet. Even with Rubio shooting better (because he's largely unguarded), he's not the kind of offensive talent that can put a team on his back and carry them to victory.

I know MIN management is enamored with their youth, but I bet Tom Thibodeau would gladly trade some of that youth for someone who actually knows how to win.

BNM
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The dude is a less efficient version of Rudy Gay, with worse defense. he isn't a plus at all.

It's funny when people say the Timberwolves should be better and list Wiggins as one of the reasons. He's not a good player.
 
BonesJones said:
The dude is a less efficient version of Rudy Gay, with worse defense. he isn't a plus at all.

It's funny when people say the Timberwolves should be better and list Wiggins as one of the reasons. He's not a good player.
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But they have a brighter future than us!!!! Them and the Bucks and the Pelicans!!! And we're screwed!
 
Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/21/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 64.0%
Change = +2.7

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 40-42
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 74.0%
Change = +3.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 38.6-43.4
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 47.5%
Change = +3.7%

Projected Finish = 9th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 61.8%
Change = +3.1%

With POR idle last night and DEN losing to HOU, the Blazers odds of making the playoffs climbed to a new consensus high of 61.8%.

Basketball-reference STILL has us missing the playoffs. Here's how they currently have POR and DEN rated:

DEN: Projected Record = 38.7-43.3, Odds of Making the Playoffs = 48.9%
POR: Projected Record = 38.6-43.4, Odds of Making the Playoffs = 47.5%

Since you can't win a tenth of a game, that's a virtual tie. As discussed yesterday, we currently own the first and second tie breakers with DEN.

But, what the heck, let's beat MIL tonight and make it unanimous!

BNM
 
Strength of Schedule for remaining games:

DEN = .548
POR = .438

Of the 30 teams, DEN currently has the toughest remaining schedule (just edging MIN with an SOS of .545 for remaining games).

POR has the 3rd easiest remaining schedule, trailing only BOS (.395) and CHI (.424).

Still, you have to play the games. If we take care of business and beat the teams we're supposed to beat, we've got this.

BNM
 
Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/22/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 38-44
Change = -1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 55.9%
Change = -8.1

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = -1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 66.0%
Change = -8.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 38.1-43.9
Change = -0.5 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 38.5%
Change = -9.0%

Projected Finish = 9th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 38-44
Change = -1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 53.5%
Change = -8.3%

After last night's loss to MIL, our odds of making the playoffs took a significant hit (-8.3%). That was a game the simulations obviously had us winning. The consensus is we will still make the playoffs, but it's much closer to 50/50 (53.5%) than it was before that loss.

CLE plays in DEN tonight. Both FiveThirtyEight (60%) and basketball-reference (53%) are favoring DEN in this one. Go Cavs!

BNM
 
Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/23/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 38-44
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 46.5%
Change = -9.4%

Projected Finish = 9th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = -1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 60.0%
Change = -6.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 38.1-43.9
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 31.8%
Change = -6.7%

Projected Finish = 9th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 38-44
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 46.1%
Change = -7.4%

With Tuesday night's loss to MIL, combined with DEN's beat down of CLE last night, we are no longer the consensus favorite to make the playoffs. It's looking more and more like a dead heat with the entire season perhaps hinging on the head-to-head game against DEN in POR on 3/28.

With the way DEN is playing, we can't afford anymore let downs. We need to win ALL of the games we are supposed to win and hope DEN actually loses to some of the teams they are supposed to lose to.

We have three games between now and that head-to-head match up on the 28th:

Tonight against NYK
Saturday against MIN
Sunday @LAL

Those are all winnable games and we need to win all three.

DEN has two games between now and the 28th:

Friday @IND
Sunday against NOP

Those are tougher opponents than we are facing, at least on paper. IND has had a very unusual stretch where they have alternated wins and losses for the last 15 games. If the pattern holds, they are due for a win on Friday. Let's hope it does. NOP seems to finally have adapted to the addition of Cousins. They have won 5 of 6 and have had some double digit wins over some pretty decent teams, beating MEM by 13, MIN by 14, HOU by 16 and, of course, POR by 23. Let's hope they continue this level of play against DEN on Sunday.

BNM
 
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Of course, we need to start by taking care of business against NYK tonight. FiveThirtyEight gives us an 84% chance of winning, and basketball-reference has us at 66%. We need this one (and the next two) to go into that game against DEN on the 28th with some momentum.

BNM
 
If we don't stay focus all 4 QT we won't make the playoffs. We can't have a 3 QT like we had last night because any half way decent team would beat us they just need stay focus. We will have to bring it against the T Wolves because there playing other teams very good.
 
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