2017 Blazers Playoff Odds - Let's Try this Again

[Boob-No-More]

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/24/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 53.0%
Change = +6.5%

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 62.0%
Change = +2.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 38.4-43.6
Change = +0.3 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 36.4%
Change = +4.6%

Projected Finish = 9th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 50.5%
Change = +4.4%

After beating the Knicks last night, we are once again the consensus favorite to make the playoffs - but just barely at 50.5% odds. As expected, it's looking like a dead heat heading into the head-to-head game against DEN in POR on 3/28.

Both teams have two games between now and that head-to-head match up on Tuesday:

POR:
Saturday against MIN
Sunday @LAL

Both are winnable and we need to win both.

Tonight @IND
Sunday against NOP

Will IND's pattern of alternating wins and losses for the last 15 games hold tonight? Let's hope so, they lost their last game at BOS on Wednesday. The Pacers are currently tied for 6th in the East with MIL. The Pacers are 25-10 at home this season. DEN is 13-20 on the road. FiveThirtyEight gives IND the edge tonight at 60%/40%. Of course all this means nothing. They also had us beating MIL and DEN losing to both LAC and CLE. That's why they play the games. Go Pacers!

BNM

 

[Chris Craig]

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/24/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 53.0%
Change = +6.5%

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 62.0%
Change = +2.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 38.4-43.6
Change = +0.3 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 36.4%
Change = +4.6%

Projected Finish = 9th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 38-44
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 50.5%
Change = +4.4%

After beating the Knicks last night, we are once again the consensus favorite to make the playoffs - but just barely at 50.5% odds. As expected, it's looking like a dead heat heading into the head-to-head game against DEN in POR on 3/28.

Both teams have two games between now and that head-to-head match up on Tuesday:

POR:
Saturday against MIN
Sunday @LAL

Both are winnable and we need to win both.

Tonight @IND
Sunday against NOP

Will IND's pattern of alternating wins and losses for the last 15 games hold tonight? Let's hope so, they lost their last game at BOS on Wednesday. The Pacers are currently tied for 6th in the East with MIL. The Pacers are 25-10 at home this season. DEN is 13-20 on the road. FiveThirtyEight gives IND the edge tonight at 60%/40%. Of course all this means nothing. They also had us beating MIL and DEN losing to both LAC and CLE. That's why they play the games. Go Pacers!

BNM

When is the last time a team with a losing record made the playoffs in the western conference?

 

[Boob-No-More]

When is the last time a team with a losing record made the playoffs in the western conference?

Twenty years ago (today Sgt. Pepper taught the band to play).

In 1996-97 the Suns were 7th seed at 40-42 and the Clippers were the 8th seed at 36-46. That was back when the first round of the playoffs was still best 3 out of 5 games. The Clippers were swept 3 games to 0 by the #1 seed Jazz. The Suns jumped out to a 2 games to 1 lead over the #2 seed Seattle SuperSonics before losing the series 3 games to 2.

Since then, there have been multiple #8 seeds in the West that finished the regular season at exactly .500, including HOU last year at 41-41.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/25/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 41.5%
Change = -11.5%

Projected Finish = 9th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 53.0%
Change = -9.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 38.5-435
Change = +0.1 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 27.7%
Change = -8.7%

Projected Finish = 9th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 40.7%
Change = -9.8%

With DEN refusing to lose, we are now facing a stiff uphill battle. We are no longer consensus favorites to make the play offs. With that big head-to-head showdown with DEN on the 28th looming on the horizon, we need to take care of business. We still control our own fate, if DEN wins out (other than losing to us on the 28th) and we also run the table, both teams finish at 44 - 38 and we own the tie breaker.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/26/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 49.6%
Change = +8.5%

Projected Finish = 9th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 40-42
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 60.0%
Change = +7.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 38.9-43.1
Change = +0.4 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 35.9%
Change = +8.2%

Projected Finish = 9th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 48.5%
Change = +7.8%

Last night's win over MIN moved us back closer to even odds to make the playoffs. It also moved us closer to clinching the tie breaker:

• (1) Head-to-head won-lost percentage - Currently up 2-1 with 1 game remaining
• (2) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division - NA
• (3) Division won-lost percentage for teams in the same division - POR currently 8-3 with 5 games remaining (DEN, @MIN, @UTA, MIN, UTA), DEN currently 5-8 with 3 games remaining (@POR, OKC, @OKC)
• (4) Conference won-lost percentage - POR currently 21-21 with 10 games remaining (@LAL, DEN, HOU, PHO, @MIN, @UTA, MIN, UTA, SAS, NOP), DEN currently 20-24 with 8 games remaining (@POR, @NOP, @HOU, NOP, OKC, @DAL, @OKC)

So, we basically have the tie breaker all but locked up, but for that to matter, we need to catch DEN. We are currently 1 game behind the Nuggets. Both teams have 10 games left. POR has 7 at home and 3 on the road, and DEN has 3 at home and 7 on the road.

POR: Strength of Schedule = .472
DEN: Strength of Schedule = .531

DEN has a tougher schedule and more road games, but at this point, I'm throwing SOS out the window. As they have shown recently, we can't count on DEN losing to anyone. Plus as we get closer to the end of the season, teams that are locked into their seeding will rest players. So, what looks like a tough game on paper (and in the simulations), may not be. We need to take care of our business and win as many games as possible and let the chips fall where they may.

Starting tonight in LAL. We have the upcoming head-to-head game against DEN in Portland on Tuesday, but it's important we don't look past the Lakers game tonight. Losing any game we should win would significantly hurt our chances off making the playoffs.

DEN hosts NOP tonight. Both of these teams are playing well right now. DEN has won 6 of 8 and NOP has won 5 of 7. With Davis and Cousins, NOP care throw different looks at Jokic. Should be an interesting game. The game in Denver starts an hour and a half before our game in Los Angeles. So, I plan to watch as much of the NOP @DEN game as possible before switch over to the Blazers game against the Lakers.

BNM

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Thanks for the great work you've been doing in this thread!!

My hopes:
1) I want the Blazers to finish 7-3 which would put us at .500. If the Nuggets play equal to, or better than that, they deserve the playoffs and my congratulations, too.
2) I'm also rooting for the Blazers to finish with a positive +/-. Currently we're -1.3, so probably won't get there, but -1.3 is the best we've been at since the beginning of the season.
3) Currently we're 11th in Ortg, I'd like us to finish top 10 (0.3 behind Minny)
4) Currently we're 25th (6th worst) in Drtg, I'd like us to finish outside the bottom 10 (won't happen), but at least finish ahead of the dregs (Kings, Tpups, which are 0.1 ahead of us right now)

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/26/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 49.6%
Change = +8.5%

Projected Finish = 9th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 40-42
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 60.0%
Change = +7.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 38.9-43.1
Change = +0.4 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 35.9%
Change = +8.2%

Projected Finish = 9th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 48.5%
Change = +7.8%

Last night's win over MIN moved us back closer to even odds to make the playoffs. It also moved us closer to clinching the tie breaker:

• (1) Head-to-head won-lost percentage - Currently up 2-1 with 1 game remaining
• (2) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division - NA
• (3) Division won-lost percentage for teams in the same division - POR currently 8-3 with 5 games remaining (DEN, @MIN, @UTA, MIN, UTA), DEN currently 5-8 with 3 games remaining (@POR, OKC, @OKC)
• (4) Conference won-lost percentage - POR currently 21-21 with 10 games remaining (@LAL, DEN, HOU, PHO, @MIN, @UTA, MIN, UTA, SAS, NOP), DEN currently 20-24 with 8 games remaining (@POR, @NOP, @HOU, NOP, OKC, @DAL, @OKC)

So, we basically have the tie breaker all but locked up, but for that to matter, we need to catch DEN. We are currently 1 game behind the Nuggets. Both teams have 10 games left. POR has 7 at home and 3 on the road, and DEN has 3 at home and 7 on the road.

POR: Strength of Schedule = .472
DEN: Strength of Schedule = .531

DEN has a tougher schedule and more road games, but at this point, I'm throwing SOS out the window. As they have shown recently, we can't count on DEN losing to anyone. Plus as we get closer to the end of the season, teams that are locked into their seeding will rest players. So, what looks like a tough game on paper (and in the simulations), may not be. We need to take care of our business and win as many games as possible and let the chips fall where they may.

Starting tonight in LAL. We have the upcoming head-to-head game against DEN in Portland on Tuesday, but it's important we don't look past the Lakers game tonight. Losing any game we should win would significantly hurt our chances off making the playoffs.

DEN hosts NOP tonight. Both of these teams are playing well right now. DEN has won 6 of 8 and NOP has won 5 of 7. With Davis and Cousins, NOP care throw different looks at Jokic. Should be an interesting game. The game in Denver starts an hour and a half before our game in Los Angeles. So, I plan to watch as much of the NOP @DEN game as possible before switch over to the Blazers game against the Lakers.

BNM

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Thanks for the great work you've been doing in this thread!!

My hopes:
1) I want the Blazers to finish 7-3 which would put us at .500. If the Nuggets play equal to, or better than that, they deserve the playoffs and my congratulations, too.
2) I'm also rooting for the Blazers to finish with a positive +/-. Currently we're -1.3, so probably won't get there, but -1.3 is the best we've been at since the beginning of the season.
3) Currently we're 11th in Ortg, I'd like us to finish top 10 (0.3 behind Minny)
4) Currently we're 25th (6th worst) in Drtg, I'd like us to finish outside the bottom 10 (won't happen), but at least finish ahead of the dregs (Kings, Tpups, which are 0.1 ahead of us right now)

2) We've improved our +/- to 1.0 in just one game against the Lakers, so it's possible to get there!

 

[SlyPokerDog]

 

[Pinwheel1]

Anything is possible at the end of a season when teams tank , rest, or go all out. I hate to jinx it but it is hard to believe that Denver beats us based on the schedule.
9 games left for both teams. We have 7 home and 2 away. Denver has 2 home and 7 away............

Both teams will or at least should treat Tuesdays game as a playoff game. Should be entertaining.

 

[Boob-No-More]

2) We've improved our +/- to 1.0 in just one game against the Lakers, so it's possible to get there!

I'm REALLY looking forward to updating this thread tomorrow morning. Man that game against DEN on Tuesday is going to be HUGE.

Fuck tanking! This winning shit is fun. I can't remember the last time I was this excited about a regular season game in late March.

BNM

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I'm REALLY looking forward to updating this thread tomorrow morning. Man that game against DEN on Tuesday is going to be HUGE.

Fuck tanking! This winning shit is fun. I can't remember the last time I was this excited about a regular season game in late March.

BNM

I'm all for tanking and I'm keeping a close look at draft position.... Memphis Tanking and Cleveland Tanking

 

[tester551]

I'm REALLY looking forward to updating this thread tomorrow morning. Man that game against DEN on Tuesday is going to be HUGE.

Fuck tanking! This winning shit is fun. I can't remember the last time I was this excited about a regular season game in late March.

BNM

Tuesdays game will have essentially a 3 game swing. If we loose, we'll be 1 game back. If we win, we'll be 1 game up with the tie breaker locked up (or essentialy a 2 game lead).

 

[BigGameDamian]

 

[Boob-No-More]

Tuesdays game will have essentially a 3 game swing. If we loose, we'll be 1 game back. If we win, we'll be 1 game up with the tie breaker locked up (or essentialy a 2 game lead).

Yep, HUGE game.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

I'm all for tanking and I'm keeping a close look at draft position.... Memphis Tanking and Cleveland Tanking

Well said. Since the Nurkic trade, CLE has fallen into a virtual tie with BOS, trailing all of GSW, SAS and HOU and MEM has fallen to the 7th seed in the West.

I doubt if it happens, but I'd LOVE to see one of the 37-36 teams in the East catch and pass MEM. MIL seem to be the only one that has a chance.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/27/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 40-42
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 71.3%
Change = +21.7%

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 40-42
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 83.0%
Change = +23.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 39.4-42.1
Change = +0.5 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 57.0%
Change = +21.1%

Projected Finish = 8th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 40-42
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 70.4%
Change = +22.9%

What a difference one night makes! With DEN falling at home to NOP and the Blazers taking care of business in LA, we are now, for the first time since I started this thread, the unanimous choice to grab the 8th seed in the Western Conference.

In the 22 days since I started this thread, the consensus odds of the Blazers capturing the 8th seed have gone from 24.1% to 70.4% (+46.3%) and our projected final record has jumped from 36-46 to 40-42. On March 5th none of the three sites had us getting the 8th seed. Now all three do.

Great jobs guys! But that can all be undone if we don't take care off business on Tuesday night against DEN. We have finally caught DEN. Now it's time to start pulling ahead.

BNM

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Now we need to change this to our chances for winning the championship.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Now we need to change this to our chances for winning the championship.

Too easy. All three sites currently have us at <1%. There has been no change since I started tracking our playoff odds.

BNM

 

[Sinobas]

If we beat Denver Tuesday, we effectively get a two game lead on them by sealing the tie breaker. After that, only chance Denver has is if Damian or Nurk go down with a season ending injury.

 

[Sinobas]

Now we need to change this to our chances for winning the championship.

Ok. .000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%

 

[Boob-No-More]

Ok. .000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%

BNM

 

[Chris Craig]

If we beat Denver Tuesday, we effectively get a two game lead on them by sealing the tie breaker. After that, only chance Denver has is if Damian or Nurk go down with a season ending injury.

Don't even go there

 

[The Professional Fan]

My fear is Nurk is going to try too hard on Tuesday and potentially disrupt our groove. Hope I'm wrong, but I'm sure he's chomping at the bit to prove something vs his old team.

 

[RipCityDSCPL]

My fear is Nurk is going to try too hard on Tuesday and potentially disrupt our groove. Hope I'm wrong, but I'm sure he's chomping at the bit to prove something vs his old team.

 

[Boob-No-More]

My fear is Nurk is going to try too hard on Tuesday and potentially disrupt our groove. Hope I'm wrong, but I'm sure he's chomping at the bit to prove something vs his old team.

If that starts to happen, Dame and Stotts will rein him in. As enthusiastic as Nurk can be, he does seem to look to Dame for guidance. He loves playing with a strong leader. And if he starts to get out of hand, Terry can set his ass down and let him calm down for a few minutes until he gets his head on straight.

That said, I do expect him to go at Jokic with everything he has. I don't think he as any strong animosity for Jokic, but I think he wants to show Denver's front office, their fans and especially Mike Malone what they gave up on.

BNM

 

[Orion Bailey]

If that starts to happen, Dame and Stotts will rein him in. As enthusiastic as Nurk can be, he does seem to look to Dame for guidance. He loves playing with a strong leader. And if he starts to get out of hand, Terry can set his ass down and let him calm down for a few minutes until he gets his head on straight.

That said, I do expect him to go at Jokic with everything he has. I don't think he as any strong animosity for Jokic, but I think he wants to show Denver's front office, their fans and especially Mike Malone what they gave up on.

BNM

Honestly, I would be disappointing in Nurk if he tried anything less. I think most driven players want to show those who cast them aside it was a big mistake. I think he will come out a little crazy, settle down, and take them to town.

 

[The Professional Fan]

LOL.

It's been on my mind for a couple weeks, and now that we caught them, it's kind of freaking me out!

 

[PDXFonz]

My fear is Nurk is going to try too hard on Tuesday and potentially disrupt our groove. Hope I'm wrong, but I'm sure he's chomping at the bit to prove something vs his old team.

My fear is that the people in the arena catch an incredibly serious case of Nurkic fever. By the time this game is over 20,000 people might be speaking only Bosnian.

 

[PDXFonz]

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/27/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 40-42
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 71.3%
Change = +21.7%

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 40-42
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 83.0%
Change = +23.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 39.4-42.1
Change = +0.5 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 57.0%
Change = +21.1%

Projected Finish = 8th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 40-42
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 70.4%
Change = +22.9%

What a difference one night makes! With DEN falling at home to NOP and the Blazers taking care of business in LA, we are now, for the first time since I started this thread, the unanimous choice to grab the 8th seed in the Western Conference.

In the 22 days since I started this thread, the consensus odds of the Blazers capturing the 8th seed have gone from 24.1% to 70.4% (+46.3%) and our projected final record has jumped from 36-46 to 40-42. On March 5th none of the three sites had us getting the 8th seed. Now all three do.

Great jobs guys! But that can all be undone if we don't take care off business on Tuesday night against DEN. We have finally caught DEN. Now it's time to start pulling ahead.

BNM

Can't wait to see these after tomorrow regardless of outcome.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Thanks for the great work you've been doing in this thread!!

My hopes:
1) I want the Blazers to finish 7-3 which would put us at .500. If the Nuggets play equal to, or better than that, they deserve the playoffs and my congratulations, too.
2) I'm also rooting for the Blazers to finish with a positive +/-. Currently we're -1.3, so probably won't get there, but -1.3 is the best we've been at since the beginning of the season.
3) Currently we're 11th in Ortg, I'd like us to finish top 10 (0.3 behind Minny)
4) Currently we're 25th (6th worst) in Drtg, I'd like us to finish outside the bottom 10 (won't happen), but at least finish ahead of the dregs (Kings, Tpups, which are 0.1 ahead of us right now)

1) Now "only" need to go 6-3 to make it to .500
2) +/- improved to -1.0 - there's a chance!
3) Still 11th in Ortg.
4) Improved to 23rd in Drtg, 8th worst. Sounds bad, but we were 3rd worst, so huge improvement. Only 0.5 pts worse than "championship contender" Cleveland.